POPULATION PROJECTION OF IRAN AND VALIDATING IT’S WITH THE PAST PROJECTIONS

In recent years, the changes and transformations in the number and structure of Iran's population have been noticed more than before. In the meantime, changes in fertility and childbearing have been perhaps the most important indicators affecting the number and structure of the population. The main goal of this study is to predict the population of Iran in the horizon of 1430.The research method of this study is secondary analysis and the use of data from the Statistics Center of Iran (SCI) and the use of component projection technique. This study tried to predict the population of Iran in the horizon of 1430 based on the population forecast of the country (1395-1430) conducted by the country's population research institute and using its estimated population in 1403 by age and sex. The results showed that if the target setting according to the law of population youth and family support as well as the 7th development plan, the fertility rate increases to 2.5 children per woman by the end of the plan (year 1407) and stabilizes (1408-1430), the population growth rate until the end of the program (1407) slowly increased and after stabilization with a decrease in population growth. We will meet on the horizon at 1430. In this scenario, the population will increase to about 105 million people in 1430. The number of births will also follow the same previous process. The second scenario, if we stabilize the fertility rate at 1.61 children per woman until 1430, the rate of population growth will decrease until the end of the 7th plan, and the decreasing trend will continue until 1420, and from 1425 to the horizon of 1430, the population growth rate will be negative and the relative share of the elderly population aged 60 and over will reach to 17 percent. In this assumption, after the remarkable increase in the population size from 84.920 thousand people to 91 million people in 1425, after that we will face a relative decrease in the population so that the population will reach 90.64 million people in 1430. The most likely scenario that can more realistically show the changes in the country's population in the 30-year horizon is the second scenario, but taking into account the scope of population growth that is desirable for the optimal economic growth of the country, it is suggested to try to realize the demographic changes of the first scenario. The finding of this research is consistent with the results of the population projection at the national level which conducted by the Iranian Statistics Center. Achieving the fertility level required to reach a population of 150 million people in the short term is not possible due to the existing conditions and the pace of slow and gradual changes in the population growth rate and total fertility rate. The global experience of fertility changes also confirms the results.