The Effects of U.S. Sanctions on Iran’s Social and Political Capital (2016 –2020)

 Sanctions have been used as a foreign policy tool since ancient Greece. Over time, various countries have employed them to exert pressure. The United States is among the most frequent users of sanctions in its foreign policy, with Iran being one of its primary targets. Iran–U.S. relations became strained after the 1979 Revolution, ultimately leading Washington to sever diplomatic ties with Tehran. Since then, successive U.S. administrations have imposed severe sanctions on Iran. One of the most intense sanction periods occurred during the Trump administration, encompassing financial, banking, insurance, transportation, shipping, and other sectors under what was termed the Maximum Pressure Campaign. This raises a crucial question: What effects have U.S. sanctions had on social and political capital in Iran? The present study argues that sanctions contribute to the decline of social and political capital in the countries they target.

Research on the impact of sanctions on Iranian society faces two major shortcomings. First, there is a lack of studies specifically addressing U.S. sanctions imposed during Donald Trump’s presidency. Second, most existing research focuses primarily on the economic consequences of sanctions—particularly their effects on domestic and foreign trade—while giving less attention to their political and social ramifications.  To address this gap, the present study aimed to examine how U.S. sanctions during the Trump administration influenced social and political values in Iran, particularly in relation to political development and social capital.

This research employed a case study approach to conduct an in-depth examination of sanctions and their effects across economic, political, and social dimensions. The objective was to achieve a comprehensive and multidimensional understanding of the issue. The selection of indicators was based on face validity (logical validity), assessed by experts and specialists in political science. According to their judgment, the chosen indicators effectively measure the concepts under study within the frameworks of social and political capital. Moreover, the collected data was analyzed within a designed conceptual framework using descriptive–analytical methods.

An analysis of the effects of sanctions on Iran revealed that their impact extends beyond the economic sphere, influencing social values and social capital as well. This finding is significant because sanctioning entities often claim that sanctions are intended to pressure governments rather than affect the lives of ordinary citizens. However, in reality, the general population bears the brunt of these measures, experiencing greater hardship than politicians and government officials. Moreover, applying pressure on citizens does not necessarily lead officials to retreat from their political decisions. The effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy can be evaluated using several key indicators, including economic growth, economic stability, foreign investment, the Gini coefficient, and poverty. Among these, economic growth is a particularly important measure when assessing the effects of sanctions on the economy. Before the imposition of sanctions, Iran’s economic growth showed positive figures. However, after the sanctions were implemented, the figures indicated negative economic growth. Another crucial factor is economic stability, including price stability in the country. Statistics indicate that before the imposition of sanctions, Iran’s highest recorded inflation rate was around 9.98%. However, following the sanctions, prices have continuously risen, leading to a persistent increase in inflation. Furthermore, studies reveal that the onset of sanctions triggered economic instability, characterized by rising inflation and surging exchange rates. This instability became a major concern for investors in Iran, making them hesitant to invest their capital in the country. Additionally, many existing investors began planning for capital flight. Regarding the poverty index, surveys by the Statistical Center of Iran indicate that income and wealth inequality increased by 4.9% following the imposition of sanctions. Beyond the economy, sanctions also impact on political values. This section evaluated indicators such as political participation, social protests, and order and law compliance as measures of political capital. Regarding political participation, after the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA and the imposition of sanctions, Iranian society faced significant fluctuations and economic hardships.  In the short term, economic concerns became a primary focus for the public, reducing the importance of political engagement. Therefore, political participation declined, with Iranian society showing less willingness to engage in political activities—an effect that was evident in the low turnout for the 2021 presidential election. Regarding the second indicator (i.e., social protests), evidence suggests that street protests and unrest intensified during periods of heightened sanctions. The scope of these protests has expanded in terms of duration, number of participants, number of cities involved, and their financial and human consequences. Moreover, in terms of order and law compliance, incidents of theft, street violence, and both labor and political protests increased during the sanctions period. In indicators of social capital, such as crime and felony rates, theft, divorce rates, migration, suicide, and voluntary social participation—including charitable organizations, NGOs, and cultural or artistic programs—significant differences were observed between the periods before and after the sanctions.

Contrary to the prevailing view among proponents of sanctions—who argue that sanctions can promote political liberalization and facilitate the transition to democracy by exerting pressure on leaders—sanctions actually weaken both the material and non-material (social and political) capital of society. This marginalizes democracy, weakens the public sphere, and strengthens authoritarian processes aimed at securing basic livelihoods. If this situation persists and economic problems in Iran continue to expand, it could darken the future of political and social values, potentially leading to the collapse of existing social and political capital. Therefore, decision-makers and policymakers must develop well-defined, realistic programs, seriously address the root causes of the weakening political and social order, and take decisive action to counter these trends. Failure to do so could lead to a range of dangerous consequences, including the escalation of popular protests, increased internal tensions, irreparable social problems, mass migration, a sharp decline in educational attainment, and, ultimately, a widening gap between the people and the ruling authorities. This would pose a serious threat to the future stability of the political system.