Analyzing the Quantitative Effects of Export on Iran's GDP

The role of export in economic development of countries, particularly its effect on GDP in the recent decades, has increasingly become the interest of economists. Using time-series of the period 1963-2000 and Engel-Granger as well as Error Correction Method (ECM), the relationship between Oil export (OX), non-oil export (NOX), gross domestic production (GDP) and gross domestic non-oil production (GDNOP) are estimated. The employed model is taken from Salvatoreh and Hater’s model in which the independent variables including export (oil and non-oil separately), labor force, capital are the proportion of industrial export to the import of middle goods (as an index of industrialization). Results reported that one percent increase in NOX will, in the long-run, bring about 0.01 percent and 0.09 percent increase in GDP and GDNOP respectively, and one percent growth of OX will increase the mentioned variables up to 0.012 and 0.08 percent respectively. Also, the estimation regarding the short run models indicates that one percent increase in the growth rate of OX will increase the growth rates of GDP and GDNOP up to 0.13 and 0.05 respectively in the same year, and it will increase the growth rate of GDNOP up to 0.06 percent in the following year, 0.08 percent in the two following years and the growth rate of GDP up to 0.06 percent with a two-year lag. The short run results do not indicate any significant relationship between NOX and GDP.