Economic Factors Influencing the Decision to Plant Almonds on Sloping Land in Saman, Iran

This study investigated the factors influencing the decision to plant almonds in the Saman region of Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari Province in central Iran through conducting an economic survey in 2005. Using portfolio investment theory and econometric model estimation (Shively, 1998), this paper identifies the most important factors influencing the individual farmer’s decision concerning the number of almond trees planted during 1995-2004. Results of this study show that farm size, permission for water use, a one-year forecast of almond price changes, and the upcoming year’s expected change in the guaranteed price of wheat as a competitor crop in the use of land and water had a significant impact on the number of trees planted. This study indicates that policymakers should take notice of the adverse impact of the increasing wheat price trends on tree planting and indirectly promote more research on the environmental impact of almond plantations, particularly as it relates to soil erosion and environmental issues.