RISK OF SEIZURE RECURRENCE FOLLOWING A FIRST UNPROVOKED SEIZURE IN CHILDHOOD

This study was aimed to asses the risk of recurrence after a first unprovoked seizure in children. In a prospective study we recruited 156 children who were presented with a first unprovoked seizure and followed for at least 8 months after the first seizure. Seventy two (72) children (46.2%) experienced subsequent seizures. The cumulative risk of seizure recurrence was 15%, 37.5%, 48% at 1, 6 and 12 months, respectively- following the first seizure. The median time for repeated seizure was 4 months with 62.5% of recurrence occurring within 6 months, 88.88% within 1 year and 100% by the end of two years. On multivariable analysis, risk factors for recurrence of seizure consisted of: abnormal EEG female gender occurrence of first seizure during sleep and abnormal CT scan at the time of occurrence of first seizure. On univariable analysis, history of febrile convulsion, history of neonatal problems, family history of unprovoked seizure, and abnormal neurologic exam increased the risk of recurrence. This study revealed that the risk of seizure in our patients was relatively high. Those who had abnormal EEG, female gender, abnormal CT scan, and occurrence of first seizure during sleep are at greater risk for recurrence of seizure.