Comparative Advantages in Production of Rice and Estimation Importation to Iran (1990-2005)

In this paper we investigated the comparative advantage of rice production and we estimated the trend of its importation to Iran for 2015. We try to underline the production problems and we survey the factors that increase the importation.Using on OLS method to estimate the rice importation for the period of 1990-2005, we found that ratio of importation to domestic production, depends on importation price, domestic price and domestic consumption.Also using time saris and ARIMA model to forecast the rice production and consumption under the present circumstances show that Iran has no comparative advantage in rice production. But the government support causes a positive profit for the producers. Our research found that in the next decade rice production and consumption increases but the its importation increases as well.