Factor Analysis Model for Selection of Effective Factors on Interurban Bus Passenger's Trip

One of the main tools in strategic transportation planning is to use modeling methods for different modes of trip demand. In modeling interurban passenger trip demand especially in trip creating models or demand direct models, usually 3 to 4 demand effective independent parameters have been classically selected and then different models are made and calibrated using mathematical methods. The process for selection of effective factors on trip demand is one of the most important components in trip demand modeling which has been considered by few researchers. Some alternatives inserted in the model simultaneously may have similar effects. Therefore presentation of a scientific method for selection of effective factors on trip demand (among different alternatives) would be significantly important in making trip demand modelIn this paper classic parameters which are effective on creation of bus trip demand in road transportation system may be counted as population in different provinces of the country, number of students in Azad and state universities studying in 28 provinces of the country, level of employment in each province, monthly per capita income of urban households in each province, value added by industrial workshops in each province, number of mobile subscribers in each province and number of beds in dwelling establishments per province. As well trip time (incoming and outgoing trip times) and trip expenses (freight charge) are considered as effective parameters on selection of trip modes by urban bus passenger in state road transportation system. In this paper the method for selection of effective factors on urban bus trip demand by passenger in the state network has been given by compilation of a step by step factor analysis model and its reliability has been expressed. Evaluation of the results from purposed factor analysis for selection of the factors effective on urban bus passenger trip demand in the country show that 3 factors among 9 studied parameters can be extracted. Factors determined from the purposed factor analysis in this paper have been significant with 90% confidence in determination of dependant parameter. Conceptual interpretation of the main factors obtained from purposed factor analysis model have been compatible with fundamental concepts of effective factors on trip demand in engineering theoretic discussions in transportation so they may be used in interpretation of internal correlations of a set of demand effective alternatives. In this way, using main factors obtained from the purposed factor analysis the process for modeling urban bus passenger’s trip demand in the country can be accormplished by using the smallest determining concepts for explanation of the highest value and common variance in correlation matrix.