The Relationship between Trading Volumes and the Variations in Crude Oil Prices in Registered Exchanges Using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

The high price volatility in the market indicates the severity of price variations hence making the price forecasting a more challenging issue. This is due to the fact that higher price volatility in a market means higher uncertainties and an increased level of risk in that market. Upon the analysis of volatile behavior of crude oil prices during different periods over 1987 to 2008, this paper attempts to arrive at the causal relationship between the variations in crude oil prices and trading volumes in crude oil exchanges using the VECM model. The results show that the direction of causality is from the price variations to volumes traded.