Impact of Climate Change Uncertainty on Temperature and Precipitation of Aidoghmoush Basin in 2040-2069 Period

This research work is aimed to investigate temperature and precipitation changes in Aidoghmoush basin considering uncertainty of AOGCM models that may occur due to climate change in time period 2040-2069 (2050s). At first, monthly temperature and precipitation data of TAR-AOGCM models were provided for baseline period (1971-2000) and future period (2040-2069) under the SRES emission scenario, namely A2. Then, these data were downscaled spatially and temporally to Aidoghmoush basin. Results show temperature increase of 1 to 6˚C in 2050s relative to the baseline period. On the other hand, in 2050s precipitation shows substantial increase in autumn and winter and decrease in other seasons relative to the baseline. Monthly probability distribution function, of temperature and precipitation in the period 2050s were established by weighting method. Results indicated that the HadCM3 model has the most weighing for simulation of temperature and precipitation than the other models.