The Iraqi Recent Oil and Gas Tenders and the Future of World ‎Oil Market

Ever since the invasion of Iraq by the US forces in 2003, three rounds of oil and gas auctions have been held and concluded in Baghdad. The fourth round is supposed to take place in January 2012. According to the winning bids, Iraqi oil production may jump to 12.5 or even 13.5 million barrels per day in 2017 or sometimes later on. While this production ceiling appears to be unrealistic, at least from the perspective of some oil and gas experts, a relevant question in this regard is that how far the consequences of these oil bids will go in terms of their impacts on the market power of the NOCs vis-à-vis INOCs. This paper argues that any assessment of the credibility of the current Iraqi Government's move should be looked at in line with the historical excesses and deficiencies of Iraqi Oil Policy in the past. However, upon realization, these oil and gas ambition will leave a great impact on the structure of future world oil market. That is, there is a chance that the balance of market power shifts from the NOCs towards the INOCs, as the Iraqi National Oil Company assumes more of the behavioral characteristics of an international oil company and loses its past unused power. This, in turn, may have a deteriorating effect on the welfare and oil incomes of the OPEC member states, including the Iraqi Government.