The Effect of Oil Export Fluctuations on Agricultural Growth in Iran

Oil export revenues have a major share in both Iranian government incomes and Gross domestic product (GDP). With regard to the importance of agricultural sector in economic growth, rural development and rural welfare improvement, this sector indubitably influenced by temporary and unexpected shocks in oil export. Therefore we employed Feder(1982) and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models to investigate the effects of oil export instability on agricultural growth in Iran during 1972-2007 period. The results show that there is a long run relationship and co integration between agricultural value added and other variables in specified model. Also, accompanied by other variables the effects of oil exports fluctuations as a new variable is negative and significant.