Modeling the Spatial Pattern of Land-cover Change, Using Logistic Regression (Case Study: Chehlchay Watershed, Golestan Province)
Message:
Abstract:
Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is one of important factors influencing hydrologic regime, erosion processes and bio-diversity. Knowledge about land cover change process and its determinants is necessary for better natural resources planning and management. Modeling LULC changes provides useful information for better understanding on the process of changes, determining driving forces and predicting possible future conditions. Logistic regression is one of the mostly used statistical techniques for modeling the relationship between land use change pattern (dependent variable) and its driving forces (independent variable). In this study Land sat images of 1987 and 2000 were used to derive land-cover maps and to characterize patterns of land-cover changes during 13 years period. After pre-processing, the land-cover maps of 1987 and 2000 were generated using maximum likelihood classification of respective images. The map of changes occurred was then produced by post-classification comparison method. Data on some explanatory environmental and human-related driving forces, including: distance to the edge of the existing forests, distance to roads, distance to villages, distance to streams and slope, were extracted in the GIS environment. Using a logistic regression analysis with land-cover changes map as dependent variable, and above-mentioned data as independent variables, the land-cover change probability map was produced. Evaluating the fitted logistic regression model with ROC and Pseudo R2 indexes showed a good agreement of the predicted model and land-cover changes map. The results of this study can provide valuable information for future land-use planning of the region.
Language:
Persian
Published:
Geographic Space, Volume:12 Issue: 37, 2012
Page:
55
magiran.com/p997750  
دانلود و مطالعه متن این مقاله با یکی از روشهای زیر امکان پذیر است:
اشتراک شخصی
با عضویت و پرداخت آنلاین حق اشتراک یک‌ساله به مبلغ 990,000ريال می‌توانید 70 عنوان مطلب دانلود کنید!
اشتراک سازمانی
به کتابخانه دانشگاه یا محل کار خود پیشنهاد کنید تا اشتراک سازمانی این پایگاه را برای دسترسی نامحدود همه کاربران به متن مطالب تهیه نمایند!
توجه!
  • حق عضویت دریافتی صرف حمایت از نشریات عضو و نگهداری، تکمیل و توسعه مگیران می‌شود.
  • پرداخت حق اشتراک و دانلود مقالات اجازه بازنشر آن در سایر رسانه‌های چاپی و دیجیتال را به کاربر نمی‌دهد.
دسترسی سراسری کاربران دانشگاه پیام نور!
اعضای هیئت علمی و دانشجویان دانشگاه پیام نور در سراسر کشور، در صورت ثبت نام با ایمیل دانشگاهی، تا پایان فروردین ماه 1403 به مقالات سایت دسترسی خواهند داشت!
In order to view content subscription is required

Personal subscription
Subscribe magiran.com for 50 € euros via PayPal and download 70 articles during a year.
Organization subscription
Please contact us to subscribe your university or library for unlimited access!