نشریه آمایش سرزمین
سال هفتم شماره 1 (بهار و تابستان 1394)

The present era is an era when rapid and amazing changes due to the rapid advancement of science and technology، political decisions by governments and other macro and micro factors arrive quickly which have a profound impact on the dominant trends. So، for the formulation of regional development scenarios in such era، realistic and systematic knowledge in the strategic area of ​​ planning seems to be essential. Using developmental approach and applying systems theory، the researcher in this study aimed to evaluate and analyze the development strategic variables of Mazandaran province as the main variables of scenario planning for regional development in horizon 1410. The methodology of this study is structural analysis. It is a qualitative research in terms of nature of the data، and a survey and documentary one in terms of methods of data collection. Cross analysis are used to analyze data by use of MICMAC software. The results indicate that the key and strategic variables of Mazandaran province development in Horizon 1410 includes: «the way of country’s macro management، » «inflation،» «the way of managing the province»، «Research & Development (R & D)»، «level of IT (information technology)»، «population»، and finally «inter-institutional cooperation». Meanwhile، the key capabilities and the priorities of the development of the province in Horizon 1410 include: «Crops»، «gardens and nursery»، «aquaculture»، «special economic zone of Amirabad»، «tourism»، «Fereidoon''kenar Port»، «AmirAbad Port».

There is competition between land uses in spatial land use allocation. In this research two approaches including Multi Objective Land Allocation (MOLA) and optimization with Genetic Algorithm (GA) were used for conflict resolution. The MOLA approach is based on suitability and proximity to ideal point whereas in GA، a suitability layer together with a cohesion index was used for land use allocation. The output from MOLA application was fed into the GA approach as the initial population and contiguity index as a landscape metric was used in the process to improve the result. With inclusion of contiguity in the GA approach which is absent in MOLA، and has no precedence in Iran، the final patches in the land use pattern were compacter and better shaped. Results showed GA application using MOLA output improves landscape metrics specifications in the final land use plan. However، including landscape metrics compromises suitability for land use، but there is possibility of balancing suitability and landscape indices in the GA application process. The final layer created through GA showed capability of considering suitability and landscape metrics simultaneously in land use planning towards achieving an optimal solution.

In Iran، Urban land use planning is done in format of the comprehensive and detailed plan but، even after near fifty years of development of land use plan، there are still critiques together with some revisions in legal proceedings، content and procedures. This article is a study of evaluation of urban land use planning in current decade and specifically assesses urban land use planning in Bojnord’s detailed plan with indices of Place check and Needs assessment. Results of Placecheck indicate that only 7. 92 percent of proposed land uses are fulfilled، while 34. 8 percent have been abandoned and 57. 28 percent underwent change of land use. Therefore، it can be concluded that Placecheck of uses has played a very small role. Result of Needs assessment index also signifies that 47. 61 percent of the surface areas have realized proposed use. This shows that Needs assessment has equally failed but، compared to the other index، a flexible locality of uses contributes to realization of proposed plans. In the following and in form of interviews with executers، various obstacles on the way of realization، problems like land ownership، insufficient correspondence between planners and executers، and inadequate legal surveillance and obligations were indentified.

The topic of land and how to use it have always been the main topic of the urban planning and the space-place assessment and organizing of the efficient and urban performances is one of the most important and most effective axis urban Sustainable Development. The aim of the performance of this reseach is the quality and quantity assessment of the urban land use with constant Sustainable Development in Piranshahr. The manner of this research is analytic descriptive. To this purpose، there indicators of capacity compatibility and social justice have been used to achieve the sustainable development. In the first stage، it is paid to the quantitative assessment of existing uses and capacity index analysis، in the second stage it is paid to the qualitative assessment of use in view point of compatibility by using compatibility matrix and analysis of social justice index with the model of the nearest neighbor and swot model. The results of the quality and quantity analysis show that often efficient face with lack. This lack equals with 175. 5 hectar. Also the most extent of Inconsistency is in the Usage Industry، Administrative، Residential and educational. This situation is expressive of the lack of the balance and disharmonious between the efficient that was caused by the urban planners lack enough attention. So it is essential to fit the environmental balance and economic and cultural of the urban Sustainable Development in the planning process.

Modeling urban development patterns is an important technique for understanding complex urban growth processes. In this study، Logistic Regression model was conducted to model urban growth pattern of Gorgan area in North Iran، during the period 1988-2025. To do this، remotely sensed imagery of years 1988، 1998 and 2007 were used to produce land use maps. Also، dependent and independents variables were created to perform urban growth pattern modeling. Then، urban changes were detected during 1988 – 2007 and urban change modelling was achieved using Logistic Regression. After that، future urban grow pattern was predicted. The results indicated that urban areas have increased during study time period. Validation of model results was performed using Pseudo-R2 and ROC values which were more than 0. 27and 0. 83 respectively. Furthermore، Logistic Regression was applied to predict urban growth patterns for the years of 2016 and 2025. According to the results، appropriate implementations are needed to control land use changes، particularly urban growth، in order to preserve environmental as well as ecological balances of the area. The result could be help the managers to monitor and prevent the unplanned urban development in future. Model’s extracted maps can be used for managing and controlling future urban development.

Evaluation of these and the threat، much reduces costs in the event of crisis and better life with safety and creates security for citizens. On this basis assessment of cities vulnerability during the battles and compile appropriate ways to reduce vulnerability and damages is essential. Therefore this study sought to assess and vulnerability zoning of Kerman city from the perspective of passive defense with an emphasis on land uses and vital infrastructures and possible threats city as well as three indicators of population density، quality of buildings and empty spaces. To achieve this objective the Delphi method and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used. Also using the ArcGIS software and it''s analyze، Vulnerability maps were developed. Finally، by combining the zoning map the vulnerability of vital infrastructures and population and physical indicators، the final zoning map vulnerabilities in Kerman is achieved. According to the plan a wide range of domestic and central city are as are vulnerable to high and medium. The most vulnerable areas is Zone 3 and Zone4 is the safest area of Kerman city.

The aim of the present study is to represent the strategies and approaches to develop the border areas of Sistan and Baluchistan Province. The research method was descriptive-analytic. Furthermore، the study was an applied research، documentary and field studies were the methods of data collection، and the research was performed in the form of questionnaire. The validity of it was reviewed and confirmed by 20 experts (experts in urban and rural planning، and land use). The model used in this research was a hybrid model of SWOT-ANP and SWOT- AHP. Thus، the capabilities and limitations of the land use of border areas were measured. In terms of development، has been made. To reach this goal، by using the technique of SWOT، the strengths and weaknesses (internal factors)، and the opportunities and threats (external factors) were identified. By the use of ANP and AHP models، the external and internal factors were examined to adopt the best strategy (SO، WO، ST، and WT). The findings indicated that in the SWOT-ANP model، the SO strategy with the score weight of 0. 28152، and the ST strategy with the score weight of 0. 26573 were chosen as the most important strategy، and as the alternative strategy، respectively. Moreover، in the SWOT- AHP model، the ST strategy with the score weight of 0. 705، and WO strategy with the score weight of 0. 601 were chosen as the most important strategy، and as the alternative strategy، respectively.