نشریه بررسی های آمار رسمی ایران
سال بیست و پنجم شماره 1 (پیاپی 84، بهار و تابستان 1393)

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the changes in qualitative and quantitative indicators of housing combined with demographic changes in Iran. The method used in this study is a secondary analysis of census data. The results showed that the qualitative and quantitative indicators of housing in Iran have improved over time. However, the country is facing a shortage of housing units. The findings showed that a considerable proportion of housing units in the country are worn. As regards some areas that are prone to earthquakes, and many people died in the earthquake, it should also be noted. Therefore, reconstructions of worn housing units should be placed on the agenda of the relevant authorities. In general, planning should emphasize the shortage of housing units and reconstructions of old units.

One of the most important issues that should be considered in the study of household economy is their saving power. Household saving power can be estimated by measuring the difference between their income and expenditures but usually under reporting in declaring income is prevented providing of reasonable estimates. In this article, attempt is made that by fitting of the regression model, the household under reporting error be adjusted and then their saving power be estimated for the years 2009 to 2011. Results show that during these years, the average of household saving power of the country has increased from 4 percent to 10 percent.

Forecasting of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, has a special importance for policy making planning. For this purpose, various forecasting models have developed in recent decades. In this paper based on time series approach, it is shown that the best model for inflation rate is ARIMA(2,2,3). Within-sample forecast has been done after model determination and then the inflation rate for next three months forecasted by using inflation series calculated by statistical center of Iran. The results show that the decreasing trend of inflation rate that had been started from November 2013 is continued.

Survey is a method of gathering information from a sample of units or all of the population. In sample survey, sampling distributions of estimators are affected by errors. These errors may push estimate in a specific direction or inflate its variation. ‎Difference between the estimated and the parameter that is intended to estimate‎, ‎is called survey error‎. Total ‎survey error ‎(TSE)‎ refers to totality of errors that can arise in the design‎, ‎collection‎, ‎processing‎, ‎and analysis of survey data‎. ‎It includes sampling error and nonsampling error. Components of nonsampling error are specification‎, ‎coverage‎, ‎measurement‎, ‎nonresponse‎, ‎and processing errors.‎An estimate of TSE is useful to compare the accuracy of data from alternative modes of data collection or estimation methods‎, ‎and to optimize the allocation of resources for the survey design‎. ‎The most common metric for quantifying TSE is the mean squared error (MSE)‎. If the gold standard measurements are available on all sample units‎, ‎an approximate estimate of MSE can be used to quantify TSE‎. ‎The preferred approach is to decompose the TSE into components associated with the various sources of errors in surveys.‎ Then total bias error and variance components can be estimated. In this article, data from a small scale survey, which has been conducted in a faculty of university in Tehran, is used to estimate TSE.

The purpose of this paper is examining the prevalence of disability at both national and provincial levels and studying the relationship between development and prevalence of disability in 2011. The methodology of this study is library research, in which the existing statistics were gone under a secondary analysis. To do this, the first part of the paper deals with a comprehensive and detailed study of prevalence of disability by gender, age, region and type at national and provincial levels based on the results of the 2011 National Population and Housing Census. In the second part of this paper, 32 economic, health-medical, demographic, cultural-educational and infrastructural indices are combined to form the Development indices based on the TOPSIS method. Then through linear regression, the relationship between prevalence of disability and socio-economic and cultural development in Iran, were studied.The results of regression show that economic development has a significant but negative impact on prevalence of disability. Also the positive impact of health development on prevalence of disability is confirmed. This is due to the fact that access to health and medical services and treatment of patients using intensive and special cares, gives survival chance to larger number of the disabled. At the end, improvement of level of total development index has a negative and significant impact on the prevalence of disability (in Iran).

The ranking of provinces based on various household income and expenditure’s indicators, such as proportion of income, total expenditure, housing expenditure and health expenditure of each province of the country, is importance for regional planning. In this paper, initially the data of 2011 urban and rural household expenditure and income survey are used to rank provinces by a descriptive analysis. Then, for ranking of provinces, random effects simultaneous equations, considering the effect of covariates and correlation structure between provinces, based on total and the first two deciles of household expenditure and income, are used.