نشریه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی
سال بیست و ششم شماره 3 (پیاپی 59، پاییز 1394)

Introduction Lakes and wetlands are one of the richest biological resources in every natural ecosystems that any type of damage or destruction on them, affect on the other biological parameters of every ecological environment. Lakes, as the second water resource which cover 1.8 percent of the earth surface, are formed by means of the internal and external processes of the earth.karstic lake is one type of the lakeswhich forms via karstic process. In studying the lakes, beside of the parameters that are relevant to the water quality, depth and area changes of the lake indicate the situation of the lake, too.In the recent years, most of the studies about the lakes bathymetry were accomplished by means of the radar images or field studies butthese methods are very costly. So, presenting a method based on the multispectral images and with much lower cost, can be instrumental.In this research, one of the most important and largest freshwater lakes in Iran, were examined from the view point of the relative depth variation and also changes in lake area in period of 14 years bymeans of the methods which based on the satelliteimage and without field measurements. For this purpose, non-thermal bands of the TM-5 sensor of the landsat satellite, were used. Methodology In this research, non-thermal images of the landsat TM-5, were used for examination of the relative depth and lake area changes during the period of 1985 to 1999. We tried to using the data which has been received in the same month of the yearin each of the two mentioned years, because, the changes that we calculated, not due to the seasonal changes. In order to achieving the mentioned purposes of this research, the following steps were done, respectively: 1- pre-processing of the data. 2- calculate the area of the lake in two years. 3- performing the Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) classification method. 4- performing Binary Encoding Classification (BEC) method. 5- performing the Spectral Information Divergence (SID) method. 6- using the Sieve filter. 7- producing the classified image of the relative depth,using the Log Ratio Transform and checking the relative depth variations in the mentioned time interval. Results and discussion After applying the three classification methods (SAM, BEC, SID) for each two years, the results were evaluated to select the best method as the base for calculate the extent changes of the lake, in time range of 14 years. Then, in order to evaluate the precision of the methods that were used in classification the area of the lake, three methods consist of; confusion matrix, kappa coefficient and the JM indexwere used. The results showed that the SID and SAM methodshave higher ability. Among them, the SID method with overall accuracy equal to 83.75% and kappa coefficientequal to 0.675, had the best performance. For more accurate examination, we can calculate the changes by means of overlaying the layers.Table 1, figure 6 and figure 8 show the significant increasing of the lake extent. Also, the result of the relative depth calculation, indicate the changes in the lake relative depth value, in 14 years. (1985 to 1999)with regard to the figure 9 (a,b), the yellowparts indicate the lower depths and the blue parts represent the deeper areas. As can be seen, a major change has been occurred in the lake relative depth that can be arising from the increasing depth in 1999 and also changes in the situation of lake sedimentation in some areas.For more accurate examination, by means of creating a tree structure classifier, a new classified image (figure 9, b,c) is obtained which comprises 4 class; land, shallow area, deep and very deep area.(figure 9)In 1985 and in the eastern part of the lake, we see more of the deeper parts in the lake.in fact, we can say that one of the reasons for this increase in the lake area, is, that the depth of the lake become more uniformand also, decrease of the deeper parts of the lake. These changes are discussed in details in the table 2.For a better understanding of the depth changes conditions, we can make a 3D view of the lake-bed by means of combining the produced image for the depth in each year with the RGB image of the same year. Conclusion This research showed that the method based on the use of the reflective bands, can be used to study the changes of the depth in the shallow lakes such as the Parishan lake and can be replaced for the radar imagery and field based costly methods.The SID method showed a high ability On the field of the classification of the lake surface from the other features, with 20% increase in the precision than the SAM common method and 37.5% improvement than the BEC method. Also, our studies showed the high ability of the filtration method which was used, inremoving the isolated and incorrect pixels from the classification.Evaluation results of the lake area changes indicate the 46.42% growth in the area of the lake in a 14-years period. Most of this increase, take place in the western area of the lake, While, the changes of the relative depth show that the many parts of the shallow areas in 1985 has been became to the deeper areas in 1999. Therefore, in this period of time, the western parts of the lake are the most variable parts. From the viewpoint of the depth changes and in the lower level(as compared withthe western parts of the lake), there are the eastern edges of the lake which most of the deep areas of them havebecame change in to the average depth, in 1999. In fact, the average depth part of the lake, had the minimum changes from 1985 to 1999 which mainly include the central parts of the lake.

Introduction Soil temperature and its variations over time and space is one of the most important factors which not only affect matter and energy exchanges in soil, but rate and direction of all physical processes, directly or indirectly are related to soil temperature. This parameter is a significant factor in agro-meteorology which most of the time is more important than air temperature for plants, from environmental point of view. Soil Temperature assessment at different depths requires knowledge of its physical characteristics such as thermal conductivity, soil specific heat capacity, diffusion coefficient and etc. when these parameters are not available, it’s impossible to access the temperature vertical distribution in soil profile and needs to use simple methods. Statistical and empirical methods which are able to show acceptable results in soil temperature assessment can be a proper way to calculate this parameter in location without soil temperature measurements. So, regarding to importance of soil depths temperature calculation in agriculture, engineering and etc., the main objective of this study is determining a numerical model for estimating soil depths temperature. 2-Methodology In this study, soil depths temperature variations pattern were determined based on measured data, firstly. Then, performance of an empirical model for estimating the soil depths temperature was tested. To do so, monthly and annual temperatures of 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100 cm of soil in Mehrabad synoptic station at 3 times in a day during the 2008 (6:30, 12:30, 18:30 at local time) were extracted from Iran Meteorological Organization and temperature pattern of each depth was studied. For calculating temperature in different depths, temperature of 5cm was used as base temperature and temperature of other depths was estimated by using sinusoidal equation. For calibrating the estimated and measured temperatures, statistical methods such as correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient were applied. 3-Disscusion According to the results soil temperature indicates similar monthly pattern in all depths, so that maximum and minimum temperature is related to July-August and January-February-December, respectively. Also, Hourly soil depths temperature illustrated that in near surface depths (5cm) maximum temperature occurs in middle of the day (12:30), while minimum temperature is recorded after sunrise (6:30). At the depth of 10cm, maximum temperature occurs at 18:30 because of a time lag in temperature transfer from surface to depth. Generally, temperature behavior of different depths demonstrated 2 distinct patterns during the year; in warm period, temperature decreases from top to depth, so that maximum and minimum temperature was recorded at 5 and 100 cm, respectively. But in cold season, trend of temperature variations is completely visa versa and temperature increases with depth. In addition, reconstructed soil temperature data display that there is a negligible difference between estimated and recorded temperature data, especially at the depths which are near the base surface (5cm), so that correlation coefficient between these two parameters varies from 0.99 at the depth of 10cm and 0.89 at the depth of 100cm and is significant at 99% level. Moreover, result of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient varies from 0.9963 to 0.9114 which shows high efficiency of the empirical model. 4-conclusion The main objective of this study is analyzing an empirical model for estimating the soil depths temperature in regions which are not under cover of synoptic stations. Generally, results demonstrated that there is significant correlation between estimated and recorded data. Also, Calibration of the correlation and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients showed that empirical equation has proper efficiency for calculating soil depths temperature.

1. Recognizing the problems in rural areas and presentation of its suitable solution is one of the essentials to the sustainable rural development. One of the mental disturbances of the regional managers and planners is the natural hazards in different regions. Tarom area in north of Zanjan province (northwest Iran) has a high degree of earthquake risk due to its special geological and topographic structure, as the 21 June 1990 earthquake had showed this unpleasant reality. Regarding the necessary and priority for recognition this hazard and presentation the best solution for the planning them, in this research it has tried to zoning the earthquake vulnerability risk via the suitable methods.2.Theoretical Bases: There are numerous methods for assessment the settlement vulnerability against earthquake. However, since there are many factors to evaluate the settlement risk, so using the spatial multi-criteria analysis methods comes to hand results that are more effective. Nowadays, geographical information systems (GIS) have come as a powerful computer technique, which has the ability to comprehensive spatial analysis, databases management and data visualizing. Expectation to this, in sciences related to the earth, it is commonly use on informational systems based on GIS for zoning the natural hazard risks such as earthquake and landslide. 3. In this research, it has tried to zoning the rural settlements for the risk of earthquake using AHP model and spatial multi-criteria analysis method with five indices of environmental and population. For operate this, first the effective factors as the land kind, fault, sloop, landslide and population density were selected and then, the layers of those data obtained and classified in ARC GIS software. The criteria distinction was based on linear function in AHP model and the end, the final map of the zoning for the earthquake vulnerability risk produced in four classes contains low, medium, high and very high-risk zones.4. The case study of this research has very high potential risk of earthquake via the faults mostly the main faults and its alluvial unstable lands and sloops. Since in the past times the local and spatial allocating of villages were mainly based on natural factors and socio-economic trend, such as accessibility to water and soil resources and also the sufficient security, consequently it has taken into consideration very few about the natural irresistible such as earthquake. so that many of villages are located beside the main factors or in unsuitable land structure. Hence, in case of earthquake, these settlements can be very vulnerable, as 21 June 1990 earthquake had showed this. In addition, any ignorance to natural hazards will consequent stagnancy of economic and agricultural activities in the area and led them to challenge in various forms. The results of the research show the main portion of the area and its rural settlements are in high (percentage 45.71) and very high (percentage 14.71) risk zones. Only 30.30% of the area is comforted in medium risk zone and finally, 9.29% in low risk zone. In the other hand, more than 60 percent of the studied area settled in high and very high-risk zones, which contain 30 villages with 13219 populations in total.

Introduction Landslide susceptibility (LS) is the likelihood of a landslide occurring in an area on the basis of local terrain conditions (Brabb, 1984). In recent decades number of different types of hazards is greatly increased due to human activities and its encroachment on the natural environment. Compared with other natural hazards such as volcanic eruptions and floods, landslides cause considerable damage to human beings and massive economic losses (Guzzetti, 2005). According to preliminary estimates, about 500 billion riyals annual are caused economic damage in Iran by landslide occurrence (Hosseinzadeh et al., 1388:27). Today Because of the rapid development of computing power and Geographical Information System (GIS) technology, a vast number of quantitative or statistical Methods have been applied to assess landslide susceptibility (Wang, 2013:81). Among these models can be pointed to such as logistic regression model, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Analytic Network process (ANP), artificial neural network (ANN), the bivariate statistical models, fuzzy logic model. LNRF model and etc. Selecting the most appropriate approach and model is done based on the data type, scale and scale of of the analysis. The work done at the country and abroad can be pointed following cases: Gharahi et al (1390) landslide susceptibility Alborz Dam zonation by using bivariate statistical and AHP model, Results showed that the compared to the weighting factor method statistical indicators zonation provides more realistic distribution of landslide susceptibility. Bidar (1391) has attempted to zonation mass movements in road Meshkinshahr - Movil the advantage of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). He combined with 9 parameters catchment to zonation into four sections with a high risk, high, medium and low risk. Foreign researchers such as Yaklyn (2008) using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on GIS to landslide hazard zonation is investigated according to the characteristics geological formation in the Turkey, And has concluded that in the study area (Ardesen) 98% of the landslides occurred in units with geologic formations susceptible to weathering, steep and bare land. Sabuya et al (2006) the fuzzy logic model used for the assessment of slope instability in Rio de Janeiro of Brazil And found that, in this model the expert can be weighting from zero to one Classes of factors, so the results are better than other models. In this study balekhloo catchment (Ardabil) has Zonation for landslide susceptibility By using fuzzy logic and bivariate statistical Methods And landslide predisposing factors such as (Lithology, distance from fault, distance from river, drainage density, land slope, aspect and land use, distance from roads, vegetation density (NDVI) and elevation). 2- Methodology Fuzzy logic model fuzzy logic model is Generalization of the classical set theory in mathematical science and is a new approach to the expression of uncertainty and confusion routine. Fuzzy sets are defined by membership functions. For each fuzzy set is a number between zero and one Where zero indicates the lack full membership and one indicates full membership (Hosseini et al, 1390). Fuzzy model is done using several functions. The most important operators of the fuzzy logic can be pointed to Fuzzy Product, Fuzzy Sum gamma operator and etc. Gamma operator is defined based on Fuzzy Product and Fuzzy Sum (Equation 1). Equation (1 μ_(combination=((Fuzzy Algebraic Sum)(Fuzzy Algebraic Product))^(1-γ)) Where μ_combination layers obtained from the fuzzy gamma and the γ parameter is defined in the zero and one. Considering studies conducted and their results and compare different values of gamma, in this study, the Gamma 8/0 was used and landslide susceptibility map was produced. Bivariate statistical models Bivariate statistical models have based on overlapping parameters and density of landslides occurred. In these models the relative importance of Classes of each parameter calculated using the Landslide density in its and using the formula. In this method Landslide and parameters are handled as a dependent variable and independent variables respectively. There are several statistical methods to calculate the weighted values that here used the information value and Area density models. 1- Information value method Overall, the combination of quantitative variables (such as slope) and qualitative variables (such as land use) does cause problems in statistical analysis. This problem can be resolved in considering that each class variable individually can to have one of two modes present (1) or absent (0). This method can determine whether the class variable is present or absent (niyazei et al 1389: 12). Mentioned methods runs using the equation 2 (Naderi and Karimi, 1390: 98). Equation (2) I_i=LN((S_i/N_i)/(S/N)) 〖 S〗_i Landslide area occurred in class variable, 〖 N〗_i class variables area, 〖 S〗_. The total area of landslide, 〖 N〗_. The total area of the study area and LN is Logarithm. 2- Area density method In the methods of Area density weight of each class variables is calculated by using the equation (3) (Afjeh Nasrabadi and et al, 1387). Equation (3) Wa=1000(A/B)-1000(C/D) In above equation A is the area landslide happened in each class variables, B area of each class, C the total area of the landslide And D is the total area of the study area. With obtained weight of each class variables, weights of classes applied in software and landslide susceptibility maps were produced for both statistical methods. 3– Discussion According to the method mentioned above layers intended after preparation Were used for zonation And landslide susceptibility zonation map was obtained using mentioned three methods. Maps obtained using the method of natural breaks was classified In 5 risk class (very low susceptibility, low susceptibility, moderate susceptibility, high susceptibility and high susceptibility). For the compare models, were used from Landslide Index (Equation 4) and using it were evaluated entire risk Category. Equation (2) Li=((Si/Ai))/((∑n(Si/Ai)))*100 In above equation Si is area landslide occurred In each zone risk, Ai area of each risk zone, N number of risk Category and Li index landslide occurrence in each risk zone is to Percentage. 4– Conclusion Models used in the study Acceptable results are provided considering was to evaluate using landslide index. Information value models with values of 10 and 87percent in the high and very high risk Classes Have a better Evaluation than two other models. Area density model with values of 9% and 87% and fuzzy logic models with values of 24% and 60% in the high and very high risk Classes Are placed respectively the next ranks. Evaluation results indicate that in Information value models about 98 percent of landslide occurred in high and very high risk classes. This value has been estimated 97 percent for Area density model and 84 percent for fuzzy logic model. The results from each of the three models indicate a high potential for landslides occurred in western and southwestern parts of the basin. This areas are formed more of sedimentary rocks, old terraces and various combinations of clay, marl, limestone and Lahar. This is indicative of great influence of lithology and Type of formation to create landslide.

Introduction In order to determining wind energy potential, it is necessary to use statistical analysis. Wind energy is one of the main necessities for economical and industrial development for every society. In order to accurate assessment of wind energy features and wind potential long term records of wind speed is needed. Increase of environmental pollutions resulting from fossil fuels sources, global warming issue and green house phenomenon effect and acid rains fossil fuels and more extra attention to use renewable energies. In this regard wind as a renewable source of energy interested by many researchers in many countries. 2- Methodology There are many methods in order to estimating Weibull distribution parameters. Because these parameters were used in estimating parameters related to wind energy and determining sites which have wind energy potential, so it is important their estimating using proper method. In this paper, 5 distinct methods for estimating of parameters of Weibull distribution considered. For this purpose, 6 synoptical station which have adequate 3 hours wind speed data from 1987 to 2009 (23 years) were selected. These stations are: Ahar, Jolfa, Maragheh, Mianeh, Sarab and Tabriz. For estimating scale and shape parameters of Weibull distribution the method of moments, empirical, graphical, energy pattern factor and maximum likelihood methods were used. For determining the best parameters estimating method using cumulative distribution function of the Weibull distribution (F(v)), expected values were generated. The Chi square test was used to select the appropriate method. For determing the method which has high level of significance among other methods, CHIDIST command in Excel software was used. Graphical and maximum likelihood methods gave significance level about zero representing low level of correspondence so these methods removed from further analysis. Among the methods which gave significance level about 1, the method which had low value of Chi square were selected as the best one. Other computations related to wind energy characteristics in 10, 20 and 40 m height and wind speed values corresponding to return period of 10, 25, 50 and 100 years were analysed. 3- Discussion Among the considered methods, the method of moment dut to having high level of significance and low Chi square were selected as a suitable method for estimation of the Weibull distribution parameters. Using this method, scale and shape parameters of Weibull distribution at 20 and 40 m height was estimated, too. Then wind energy characteristics, namely, wind power density (Wm-2), wind energy density (Kwh-1m-2), the most probable wind speed (ms-1) and the maximum energy carrying wind speed (ms-1) were computed. In order to determine the station having wind energy potential the distribution parameters were computed. At monthly time scale and in 10m height, maximum value of k observed in Tabriz station on July and the lowest value of k observed in Mianeh station in January. The maximum value of c was observed at Jolfa in July and the lowest value of c observed at Mianeh in December. Such situation was observed at 20 and 40 m heights. Generally, potential of Jolfa station is in the first rank from the wind energy characteristics viewpoint in East Azerbaijan. Using the wind power density all stations were classified into distinct groups. Jolfa station and Ahar station had good power for using wind energy but the other stations namely, Mianeh, Sarab, Maragheh and Tabriz stations had poor wind power potential. In wind speed with different return periods in 10m height and monthly time scale point of view, maximum and minimum values were observed at Jolfa and Mianeh stations, respectively. In 10m height and annual time scale we can classify stations as following rank: Ahar, Tabriz, Maragheh, Jolfa, Sarab and Tabriz. 4- Conclusion We can summarize main conclusions drawn from this investigation as following: • Investigation of monthly average of wind speed in studied stations shows that it increases in all stations on June, July and August months except Ahar station. • Five methods, namely Maximum Likelihood, Method of Moment, Graphical, Empirical and Energy Pattern Factor methods were investigated and using Chi sqare test the most suitable method was selected. This method is Method of Moment. Using parameters obtained from this method, parameters related to wind energy in studied related were estimated. • When the variation of shape and scale parameters during the yearis high, then the parameters related to wind energy vary more. For example, in Ahar station parameters related to wind energy don’t vary during the year. • The highest value of wind power density equal to 300 Wm-2 observed in Jolfa station and this station has a good situation in wind energy harnessing. • Wind speed analysis in different return periods showed that in monthly time scale, the highest value of wind speed will occur in Jolfa station.

Introduction In Iran, landslides cause many problems every year, such as: destruction of roads, destruction of agricultural lands and pastures, residential areas, soil erosion and transition a great deal of deposits to the watersheds. It is important to be aware of number, area and volume of landslides in order to estimate sensitivity, determination of landslide danger and long-term evaluations to estimate bulk sensitivity. Area and number of landslides information is simply achieved through aerial photos, satellite images and field inspections. However, these methods are of no use for volume determination. It is a difficult task that needs surface and subsurface geometrical data from the rapture slope. Gathering this information which is performed as field operations is difficult and expensive and estimation of the volume of slope in steep hills is very challenging. Thus, estimation of landslide volume may be only carried out by taking experimental relations that connects the volume to geometrical raptures measurements especially the area.Since, deposit delivery in a basin exit is very important in watersheds management and most of deposits are caused by landslides on side-lines of rivers; the importance of estimation of landslides volumes has to be emphasised. Hence, the present study tried to find an experimental relation to estimate landslide volume in Neyshabour Baqi Basin (southern slopes of Binaloud) considering the significance of deposit volume caused by bulk erosion and also expensive and time-consuming field operations. It expands from 59” 38 ’58° to 13” 44’ 58° longitudes and from 09” 31’ 58° to 30” 38’ 36° latitudes; in southern slops of Binaloud Mountains. 3. Materials and methods In order to suggest an experimental relation to calculate the volume of recorded landslides, the only ones were chosen that had complete area and volume information. Thus, data of 44 observed landslides including longitude, latitude and area was given to SPSS Software to set a relationship between area (AL) and volume (VL). In order to model the experimental relation of AL and VL, considering existing statistical relations, general form of this equation was used: Finally, in order to estimate the volume of landslide by area information considering regression assumptions, a power regression model was obtained. In this relation, the observed volume is given by multiplication of slide area by observed depth obtained from remote calculations and GIS. Various experimental power relations which were used for landslide volume calculations, number of landslides and the associated area with calculated volume are given in table 1. Relations were applied for 44 observed landslides areas in the basin and results were compared with the observed values. At last, a statistical improved model for Baqi Basin was also compared with other relation. Comparison was made through R2 coefficient, percentiles statistics values, maximum, minimum and average and the root mean square errors (RMSE). 4. Results After collecting the data required from surveys, first their accuracy and quality were controlled and then their statistical properties were calculated and provided. According to the results of this table, landslides in the Baghi area are in a relatively wide range of area, size and depth, such that their area (AL) was in the range between. The observational volume or size of landslides (VL) was in the range between and their depth (DL) was in the range of. This wide range may increase the standard deviation (SD) followed by variation coefficient for each parameter. Because there are no observational data for depth, we decided to calculate the observational depth of landslides by remote sensing and GIS. In addition, to ensure the reliability of data, by selecting 8 sites for landslide out of 44 landslides occurred in the region and field studies, the accuracy of calculation depth were estimated indicates No. 44 of landslide with complete data of area (AL) and volume (VL), in a diagram with Log-Log coordinates. the frequency of slides is higher in the area range between 100000 m2 to 1000000 m2 and volumetric range between 500000 m2 to 5000000 m3.. Exponential regression fitness on the data of observational area and volume finally resulted in creation of equation (1). To evaluate the calculation values of size of landslide by related equation, these values were compared to volumetric estimations by other equations. After calculating the size of landslides in the Baghi area, the diagram for range of area determined were drawn by different equations. it can be said that equations like Imaizumi and Sidle (2007), Imaizumi (2008), Rice and Foggin (2008), Rice (1969) were relatively in good conformity to diagram of this study (equation 1); however, equations developed by Larsen and Sanchez (1998), Guthrie and Evans (2004), Marrtin et al (2002) have relatively lower estimation than developed equation. 5. Conclusion Results from this study indicated that the equation developed for Baghi area are in good conformity to some equations developed by others internationally. Because these equations presented in study areas with different local and physiographical conditions than Baghi are as well as for different ranges of areas, therefore, this conformity indicates that the relation between volume and area of landslide is basically geometrical and independent from local and physiographical conditions. In final conclusion, according to statistical accuracy of model provided and its conformity to some other equations as well as benefiting from results of this model from data obtained through whole area, this model can be considered as a desirable model for Baghi area and for calculating the size of landslides in the Eastern North of Iran.

Introduction Lack of balance and centralization is one of the features of the third world countries which is consequence of results of polar growth policies. Population of cities (size of cities) has been vastly distributed among different habitats with different sizes and patterns in different regions. These fully different patterns specify the regions in which growth of cities occur without any plan and with unequal policies. During this trend, the largest cities will have the fastest growth rates leading to emergence of population, economic, social and political dominance of one or more cities over other cities inside urban system of a country or region. Lack of balance between rural and urban centers in different social-economic fields will disrupt spatial order of habitats on the one hand and rapid growth of some important cities. Since dispersion of settlement points in zone of the land and lack of cohesion in the spatial structure is one of the features of urban system in the country, therefore, it is very important to study it in all regions of the country to identify the links and differences. This research studies condition of the urban habitats located in central metropolis including Isfahan, Yazd and ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari in 1956 to 2011 to mention balance of population distribution and dispersionof metropolitan urban points of the region in different urban classes. 2- Methodology The research method is descriptive-analytical and the required information has been collected with documentary and library method and population distribution has been studied in metropolises of central region with population models such as rank-size rule, entropy coefficient, Gini coefficient and Lorenz Curve. The demographic data has been collected based on detailed results of population and house census of 1956 to 2011 and analyzed with the mentioned models 3– Discussion By calculating Urban Primacy index in central region and its provinces, it was observed that Isfahan and Yazd provinces had Urban Primacy degree of higher than the normal limit in all years which indicated high population centralization in Isfahan and Yazd primate cities (capitals of the province) but Urban Primacy index is normal and desirable in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari Province. Urban Primacy index has been between 3.6 and 4.8 in the region which is higher than the normal limit but it has decreasing trend since 1996 later on which indicates balance of population distribution in the first and second cities of the central region i.e. Isfahan and Yazd and decrease of urban primacy dominance of Isfahan compared withthe past years. By studying Lorenz Curve in the region, we see that the closer we get from 1956 to 2011, the farther the Lorenz Curve will be from the normal lime indicating that population balance in 1956 is better than the next years and has been lost in 2011. Considering calculation of Gini coefficient, it is analyzed that population distribution is semi-balanced in metropolitan points of the central region to 2006(0.5-0.75) and has lost its balance in 2011(0.75-1) and it has generally undesirable condition. Entropy coefficient in the central region was higher than 1 in all years but 1986 which was higher than that of Isfahan, Yazd and ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari Provinces and indicated better population balance in the metropolitan points of the region than its provinces. This coefficient in 1986 is lower than that in other years and tends to zero which indicates more centralization of metropolitan system of the region and lack of balance in population distribution in these years compared with other years. During all periods, real population curve of the cities is placed below the model population curve which indicates low population of all cities compared with rank-size model. In all periods, there is relatively high reverse correlation between rank logarithm and size logarithm (population) of the cities. Logarithmic distribution of the metropolitan system of central region has been directed to lack of balance during 1956-2011. 4– Conclusion Results of the research indicate that there are very small cities (villages- towns) with very low population and few large cities with very high population. Isfahan is regarded as the top primate city in metropolitan system of this central region due to political, administrative and financial centrality during these years and has very long distance from another size of the metropolises of the region. Metropolitan system of the central region has been balanced to some extent only in terms of centralization and urban primacy indices and also entropy but it is highly distant from normal limit in other studied models such as rank-size, Lorenz Curve and Gini coefficient. Generally, there are lack of balance, centralization and phenomenon of urban primacy in the urban system of the region. Therefore, one can help distribute urban hierarchy optimally in metropolitan level of the central region by providing services and reinforcing small and medium cities and reducing growth of large cities in the region.

Introduction Quantitative assessment of tectonically active regions can serve as an important tool for reconstructing tectonic history and development of landforms. In tectonic geomorphology studies, morphometric analysis refers to the quantitative measurement of landform such as drainage basin asymmetry, mountain front sinuosity, valley heights and widths, hypsometric integral. Morphometric characteristics of valleys formed on anticline limbs can act as basic reconnaissance tools to identify the level of tectonic activity. Study area, Danekhoshk anticline, is composed of same lithology, Asmari- Shahbazan unit and is located in the western part of Kermanshah province. Structurally it is part of Folded Zagros belt. Several studies reveal that tectonically active anticlines of Zagros belt are shortening and uplifting. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of tectonic uplifting on the morphometry of 103 valleys formed on the slopes of danehkhoshk anticline. Material and method To achieve the objective of this study, boundary of 103 valleys was determined based on Quickbird Satellite image as well as field works. Morphometric parameters of valleys such as Valley outlet width (Vow), Valley maximum width (Vmw), Valley length (VL) were derived based on Quickbird Satellite image. To determine the area (A) of valleys, borders of valleys were imported in Integrated Land and Water Information system (ILWIS) software and then area of valleys were extracted. After digitizing 20- meter contour lines from topographic maps of Iranian National Geography Organization, at a scale of 1:50 000, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of study area were prepared. The valley floor width-to-height ratio () was calculated as the width of the valley floor divided by the average height of the valley divides: Where is width of valley floor, is elevation of the left valley divide, is elevation of the right valley divide, is elevation of the valley floor. The low values of are characteristic of tectonically active areas undergoing relatively rapid uplift and valley incision, whereas high values of are related to low tectonic activity. Geological data were derived from geological maps of National Iranian Oil Company at scales of 1:250 000 and 1/1000000. The strata dips (S) of anticline limbs were measured at mountain front by clinometer. Danekhoshk anticline was subdivided into 9 tectonic zones based on dip of strata and width of limbs. Then, mean of mentioned parameters were calculated in each zone. Subsequently the relationship between means of morphometric characteristics of valleys and mean of strata dips were analyzed by preparing linear relationships between means of mentioned parameters. Results and Discussion Danehkhoshk anticline in Zagros belt is an uplifting anticline and rate of tectonic activity varies spatially within it. Decrease in the crest height and in the inclination of the limbs towards southeast and northwest shows that studied anticline propagates laterally toward southeast and northwest. Values of the strata dips (S) of anticline limbs measured at mountain front reveal that the steepness of limbs varies greatly within study area. Results of this study reveal that there is meaningful positive relation between structural slopes (S) and the ratio of valley maximum width to valley outlet width (Vmw/Vow), with appropriate correlation coefficient (91%). Also there is positive relation between structural slopes and the ratio of valley maximum width to valley length (Vmw/VL), with appropriate correlation coefficient (75%). Data analysis represents that there is positive relation, with fairly low correlation coefficient, between the structural slopes and valley area (A) as well as valley maximum width (Vmw). There is no meaningful relation between structural slope and valley length. The inverse relation, with low correlation coefficient, exists between structural slope and Valley outlet width. Conclusion This study has focused on the effects of variations of strata dips (S) of anticline limbs as representative of tectonic activity on the morphometric characteristics of valleys formed on anticline limbs. Steep slopes of anticlines such as zones 6 and 3 have wide valleys with narrow outlets that can be considered as wine- glass valleys. Results of linear relationship between strata dips (S) and morphometric parameters of valleys show that the ratio of valley maximum width to valley outlet width (Vmw/Vow) and ratio of valley maximum width to valley length (Vmw/VL) are perfectly affected by tectonic or strata dips of anticline limbs. Therefore, Vmw/Vow and Vmw/VL parameters can be considered as two adequate geomorphological indexes of valleys for determining degree of active tectonic activities of uplifting anticlines of Zagros. Keywords: Danekhoshk, tectonic, Valley morphometry, Zagros, ratio of valley maximum width to valley outlet width.

Introduction Rural tourism cans a strategy for the comprehensive development of economic, environmental and social. Rural tourism can play an important economic impact on rural areas. Rural tourists’ paid For purchase of local goods and services. Also, rural tourism can be a major role in empowering local people and to economic growth and create new job opportunities closely with other economic sectors to play a role (Sharif-Zadeh and Moradnezhad, 1381: 52). This study examined the effects of economic, social - cultural and environmental development of rural ecotourism in desert areas (villages Shirkooh located in Yazd province). Ecological role of these villages will mean in the areas of national development goals with the capabilities of these villages in order to combat desertification and droughts risks, deal with soil erosion and degradation, preservation of natural resources and micro-climate, Therefore, if development means the normal interaction of ecological systems, social and economic know, then the villages located in the desert areas of the country plays a major role in achieving sustainable development (Taherkhani, 1382: 235). These villages in order to its role in sustainable development must in the first, their experience of sustainable development. However, the large number of villages, with potential revenue sources and opportunities, such as favorable weather in the desert, geomorphologic forms, attractive sky, illuminated by the sun, fountains, aqueducts, plant and animal life, sandy hills, domes saline, valleys, mountains and other natural attractions are to develop ecotourism. This study seeks to answer this question is: what effects on ecotourism sustainable development of rural areas has been studied? With these questions, the following hypothesis is proposed: Ecotourism seems to have positive effects on economic, social and environmental study area is on the villages. 2- Methodology The research study is applied. Given the topic, objectives and hypothesis, the method descriptive - survey and data gathering is both library and field. A case study is also considered to increase the accuracy. The study sample of 11 villages in the rural villages Dhbala Shirkooh functions Yazd province with a population of 1018 people (393 households) are included. Cochran formula was used to determine sample size of 131 which it was obtained. After determining the sample size, rural population under the 20 families studied in three (3 villages), 20 to 40 households (3 villages) and 40 households (4 villages) were separated and third floors of the three villages Mhsn farm, Janborazan and orchards were studied. The method of sampling, questionnaires was completed in the rural sample. Completing the questionnaire on 30 villagers and assess the validity and reliability of the questionnaire using Cronbach's alpha internal consistency of 72/0 relative reliability of the questionnaire was established. In order to analyze the data, the classification of data and preparation of tables, test using SPSS statistical software such as frequency distribution, the mean and median averages were calculated. The next step, in order to identify the effects of ecotourism on the villages, with related resources and use of teachers and experts from 10 economic components, 18 and 11 components, environmental and social components was identified. Finally, with the aim of finding and summarizing the effects of latent component factor analysis was used to test a limited number of effects. The researchers conducted a factor analysis on the effects of economic, social and environmental impacts of ecotourism in the identified villages hidden in the area. 3– Discussion The results indicate a major effect on the five villages is studied. These effects include: Expansion of second homes Ecotourism has the most effect on the villages studied, the construction of second homes in the village was Dehbala. The phenomenon of the decade 70-80 shaped and heavily influenced by the rural landscape is increasingly becoming an increasing number are made. Creation and expansion of second homes in rural areas, thereby creating jobs, such as real estate offices and sales of building materials has been. The jobs in the villages, which are new to the buying and selling land in the region, increasing the likelihood of jobs in the near future, there. Of these houses, residential land prices increased and agricultural lands and orchards have been. The changing nature of rural Ecotourism is another of the series Dhbala villages, the rural nature of it. This change largely influenced by external relations with the neighboring village is. The expansion of these relations is promoting urban culture and away from rural culture. Feature of the village, quiet and calm and beautiful environment that is The development of ecotourism and the environmental damage caused Eco tourists villages and increased pollution of solid waste entering the tourists to the village and also noise pollution is increasing. Also enter this Eco tourists, some anomalies in rural development and conflict between villagers and tourists have been seeking. Most conflicts result from the unauthorized entry of tourists into the rural lands and gardens and the unusual behavior and anomalies of tourists. The principal component analysis of field studies and related social indicators - makes clear that the social and cultural - cultural development of ecotourism entered into, is not looking very positive effects, But these positive effects also should not be ignored, for example, socializing and communicating between local residents and tourists, residents drive to increase literacy levels and awareness of what is going on around them. Equipping village facilities villages in the study area in recent years witnessed the expansion of basic services (water, electricity, telecommunications, etc.) were. Network can improve communication with neighboring regions, including rural areas, plumbing, water supply, electricity supply and telecommunications facilities, build schools, develop the rural landscape and would like it. These facilities increase due to the location of residences are rural. With studies done by researchers shows that ecotourism has had little effect on equipping rural facilities. It should be noted that in the villages studied ecotourism mostly climbing, use of scenery, weather factors and the like, and such activities do not require the creation of recreational units. Another thing that is remarkable, reluctance of villagers to build recreation centers, youth villages, because they only have to do to earn a livelihood and recreation. Increasing of Population Another impact of ecotourism in villages, positive population growth rates in four villages (Janborazan, Shiekhalishah, Ghorogh and Zyrebaghshah) is To the effect that the phenomenon of second homes and tourism also improve local streets and roads in the area that has had considerable vogue in recent years. 4– Conclusion Summarize the results of factor analysis shows that the economic dimension of ecotourism income and employment for local people and in two dimensions - social, cultural and environmental damage has been followed. Improve the economic status of rural land for sale due to owners of second homes. Owners of the homes of some villagers have been hired to guard and protect their homes. Including social impacts - such as increased cultural abnormalities, increased conflict between villagers and tourists and the urban culture and away from the rural culture. However, ecotourism in the region has positive effects on the environment and conclusion of the spread ecotourism, destruction of vegetation and pastures, environment, sound and play different types of waste in rural areas. Thus the need for proper management and sustainable ecotourism in the rural area is characterized by patterns Special place in villages, because leisure area residents are capable of Yazd province, and the long-term plan does not prepare for them, life is at risk for these villages.

Introduction Wind speed is not equal in all parts of the atmosphere. Subtropical jet stream says to cores speed of 30 meters per second at the equator near westerly winds that is effective control of the low and middle latitude weather. Jet streams can also control intensity, frequency, and duration of precipitation. Since vast areas of Iran have arid and semi-arid climates, factors that influence precipitation—e.g. velocity, location, and movement of subtropical jet streams—must be evaluated more carefully. Materials and Methods The data used in this research can be divided into two datasets. The first dataset includes precipitation data (sum monthly precipitation and precipitation frequency in day per monthly) for 180 synoptic stations in Iran. The statistical period is 1951-2005, but not all stations had data for the 55-year period. The second dataset includes data related to zonal wind velocity (u-wind) at different levels of the atmosphere with a resolution of 2.5° (extracted from www.cdc.noaa.gov), extending from the equator to 90°N and from 20°W to 100°E. The dataset contains 1000 to 10 hPa levels. Pearson correlation and multiple correlation were applied to examine the relationship of monthly precipitation with maximum velocity, latitude, and the north-south movement velocity of the core of the jet stream. First, a database was created based on the data from 180 stations and 660-months, and a 180*660 matrix was generated. First, to examine the effect of the position of the subtropical jet stream on precipitation in Iran, the isotach map of the jet stream was created at the 200 hPa level for all the months of the studied period. Then, to identify the cross-sectional expansion (profile) of this jet stream over Iran, longitude 52.5°E was mapped as the vertical axis. Finally, the relationship between precipitation in each of the stations (sum monthly precipitation and precipitation frequency in day per monthly) and jet stream characteristics (core velocity, latitude, and north-south movement velocity) was examined using Pearson correlation and multiple correlation. Findings Based on the results of evaluating the changes in the velocity of the jet stream, maximum velocity occurred from December to March (greater than 45 ms-1). Annual means of maximum jet stream velocity over Iran during the period 1951-2005 along with annual oscillation suggest a cyclical and incremental trend; however, oscillations have decreased since 1985. At some points (e.g. in 1957, 1972, and 1982), the jet stream has exceptionally been at southernmost latitudes. The isotach maps of zonal winds indicate a mean monthly velocity of 20 ms-1 at the 200 hPa level. These maps show that winds are strongest during the period January-April, but after May wind speed decreases and they shift to higher latitudes. Examining the effect of maximum velocity of the jet stream core on precipitation at synoptic stations shows that there is a significant correlation between precipitation at 37% of the stations and maximum jet stream velocity with r coefficients ranging from 0.41 to 0.50. Moreover, there was a significant correlation between precipitation at 34% of the stations and latitude of the jet stream with r coefficients ranging from -0.60 to -0.51. Examining the correlation between precipitation and north-south movement velocity of the jet stream core indicates lack of a significant correlation in 71% of the stations. Multiple correlation analysis shows that precipitation and jet stream characteristics are correlated for 36% of stations with r coefficients ranging from 0.51 to 0.60. Conclusion The results of the present research show constant annual changes in the location of the jet streams over Iran which is estimated to be about 1° toward northern latitudes in a 55-year period (1951-2005). However, monthly changes in the north-south movement velocity of the jet stream core do not follow a specific trend. Although other studies have argued that the northernmost location of jet streams which occurs in hot days of the year is over Tehran, the results of the present research show that the northernmost location of the jet stream is over the Southern Caspian. The results of examining the relationship between jet stream characteristics and precipitation show that the overall effect of jet steam characteristics on precipitation is greater than the effect of each individual component. Moreover, jet stream characteristics are more strongly correlated with precipitation frequency than sum monthly precipitation. The strongest correlations are observed for regions along the Zagros Mountains and the weakest correlations are observed for Northwest Iran, Caspian coastline, and Southeast Iran. The reason for weak correlations for Caspian coastline stations is the sea itself which controls precipitation in the region. But Northwest Iran has the northernmost latitudes and is less affected by subtropical jet streams. Moreover, this region is more quickly and more directly affected by westerly winds. Finally, the weakest correlation was observed for Southeast Iran and a possible reason is monsoon systems that control precipitation in the region and have a greater effect than changes in subtropical jet streams.

Introduction Hazards are an integral part of human societies. That several factors contribute to its occurrence. The blocking a phenomenon that affects most of the other parameters particularly. Landslide hazards are considered as important Iranian morph climatic hazards that every year brings a lot of damage to different areas. In Farvardin 1377 after a period of 19 days of rain in the North West and West Bakhtiari province The landslide occurred that Lebd Abikar was that most of rock avalanches.and Was destroyed and its inhabitants. Therefore, it seems necessary to identify assessment and forecast ahead of time and change events in the watershed to reduce damages to the human community. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of climatic factors, especially blockingl synoptic patterns and the hazard of geomorphodynamic as a guide to predict the functional. 2- Methodology The general approach is based on synoptic analysis based on the outputs of the Grads software and matching with the data recorded in the land stations Analytical methods – Numerical by using Statistical and geostatistical software GIS and Excel (Figure 1). Figure 2 - Diagram of research 3– Discussion In this regard, we have tried to consider the casual attitude, how blocking and their effects through analysis of synoptic maps In two periods rainy and between rain Leading to landslides in West Bakhtiari province. Then investigated the changes in precipitation, temperature fluctuations, and how to process and melting snow caused landslides and rock avalanches using Koohrang synoptic station data were compared with long term averages. 4– Conclusion blocking important role in the occurrence of synoptic patterns and geodynamic phenomena Abikar rock avalanches and landslides in the manner and type of precipitation and Have a role in determining the performance of system pressure, cold and warm fronts rotate the location and the type and location of each interval in the range of precipitation blocking First, the interval between rainfall and the rainfall ranges (Figure 2). Figure 2 - Hydroclimatic behavior rainfall during the 19-day

Introduction Increased utilization of water and the use of chemicals in agriculture with agricultural development projects reduces the quantity and quality of water entering the lake and its satellite wetlands are. Industrial development has led to an increased release of hazardous waste into the lake. To develop urban land use change is an increase in municipal waste. Indiscriminate use of land for the cultivation of steep slopes, increasing soil erosion and dry land visible impact on the quality and quantity of inflow to the lake and its satellite wetlands will. In this study of water level fluctuation of lakes in order to safeguard them in terms of importance, nature and location of water collection and continue life as a factor for a natural heritage and, at the national level and between countries region has assumed the position of special. Climate change as a result of reduced rainfall, increased temperature, uncontrolled use of surface and subsurface water resources and watershed areas clearly visible. These changes led to changes in water quality that is the basis of sustainable development, it is. Today discounted quantity and quality of water resources is one of the major challenges facing sustainable development. In this context, monitoring and assessment of coastal areas can, as a matter to be considered in national development and natural resource management. 2- methods and Materials The data used in this study consisted of ETM and TM images from 1989, 2011, digital topographic map of 1/50000 is the GPS mapping and interpretations. Use of the image sensor, having six bands ranging from the visible and infrared reflectance and pixel size, pointed, R., et al, 1389. It has an average resolution of the sensors. 3– Discussion According to the study aimed to evaluate the changes in time intervals ranging from satellite images was 23 years old, the first attempt to apply the corrections needed in the preprocessing stage, geometric correction, and atmospheric respectively. Therefore, satellite images of geometric and radiometric examined and corrections were made. ERDAS 9.2 software was used to perform this task. Then, to determine changes in surface lake water were analyzed. Accordingly, the first series of satellite images of different spatial resolution of the spectral composition of lake water characteristics was analyzed. Then, try to: First detection of changes in land use and lake water levels is studied in the past two decades. Second, long-term shoreline change map, altitude and area of Lake Urmia in a long-term and annual periods should be introduced. To achieve the main objectives of the study, different types of multi-temporal satellite images of Landsat TM and ETM + Urmia Lake region that were available were selected. As regards the lake is one of the most overcrowded areas in the North West is therefore the need to revitalize it to twice. One of the undeniable effects on the risk area around the lake is the wind that moved the salt particles into the cities of the country and has had a significant impact on areas outside the border. For reviews of this subject, Due to figures 8 and 9, which represents the amount of salt lakes in different areas, the wind direction is from the area of salt-affected areas, the risk will be added. So cities where the wind direction is south-west of them are located in East Lake (Tabriz, Azar, Sofian, Miandoab, etc.). The area of highest risk are located. And the wind direction in the cities as their Western, such Bonab is at the peak of the danger. At Overall it can be describes that the majority of area of towns around the lake are located in the eastern part. The wind direction is southwest or Western in them at the risk of the impact of relocation of the salt particles. This is widespread of a wide level of the surrounding land and salt storms will threaten neighboring countries. 4– Conclusion The evaluation results indicate that the coastline is a significant change in annual and seasonal scales. The maps also show that the change in annual shoreline recession, especially in East and South East study area has been very clear; this recession has been measured in some areas up to 8 kilometers. According to studies, various reasons have contributed to the reduction of lake water. The rate of 65% due to climate change, 25 percent of the dams in the basin of the lake, and 10% reduction in rainfall in the area is. In recent years, the rapid recession increased the concentration of lake water and salt mineral deposits in most surplus coastline have caused. This process in turn has created numerous ecological issues. East and south east region has been studied in a large expanse of saline lands and cultivated lands without added that the ratio of the area of the lake less. The disaster caused by the drying of the Lake heavily impact on economics and ecological and environmental issues. In particular, will be impact on the extent of direct health & the residents of the Lake margin. & And tens of thousands of square kilometers were affected & With regard to the values of gardening - crop area and population, on the one hand, inhabitants of the region due to its adjacency to other empty threat of irreparable environmental issues to be evaluated.

Introduction The climate is such that large system interaction between the four large-scale climatic: hydrosphere, cry sphere, lithosphere and Biosphere. If a change occurs in one of these systems, other systems quickly or slowly make their coordinators. The consequence of this arrangement, the skirt has been instrumental in changing the initiator includes an endless chain links, the device will tie together. Because this is the most important link between climates scientists in the fields of concern in recent years as climate change. Why the climate change caused by global warming and subsequently climate of the planet for future decades, the rapidly growing world system has been disturbed. 2- Methodology In this study, were used the data of mid-level atmospheric pressure, geopotential height pressure from the center's database based on National Centers for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR). This data are available for 6 hours GMT time and period 1948 to 2007 on the website Climate Diagnostics Center. National Oceanographic & Atmospheric Administration Government (www.esrl.noaa.gov). The spatial resolution of the data is 2/5 degrees of arc and the area from 0 - 90 degrees north and 0 - 360 degrees meridian and contains 5184 pixels. For comparison, the t - test was used for paired samples and to achieve this goal, the 30-year period was divided into two periods. Diagnosis and detection of positive or negative trend (increase or decrease) during the period of the subtropical high pressure system in the area used the f Kendall's tau trend test and a significance level SPSS software 0/05 and 0/01. 3– Discussion Results of Kendall's tau trend test calculation showed, increases in all months of the area insubtropical high pressure system at significance level of 0/01. August has highest and April has lowest area rate. The system is based on semi-warm and generally higher latitude and has the lowest area. With the passing of spring, and the system is still moving higher latitude, until in July to reach its highest latitude. But with the start of the transition period and beginning of cold period of the year, this contour is pulled toward the low latitudes and most of the area is covered and In February to reach its lowest latitude. 4– Conclusion The results showed that all the months of the study period, with an increasing trend (positive) area are subtropical high pressure system. August has the highest and April has the lowest area rate. The northern limit of the system (contour of 5840 geopotential) in the semi-warm temperate latitudes generally is based as parts of the North, Central Mediterranean, central Europe and North America and is area lowest in July. But with the onset of cold periods, the contour is pulled down latitude and occupies the most area in February.

Introduction A large number of geomorphological studies in drainage basins are referred to relations between basin components as a system, and therefore, drainage basins are known as geomorphic systems. The application of the system theory in geomorphology, leads geomorphologists to an analogy from biology in using the concept of allometry. The term allometry was first defined by Huxley and Teissier (1936) in biology. They also agreed on using terminology for discussing concepts and relations. Allometry is the study of the relationship of size to shape and states that relative change of part of a system is a constant fraction of changes of the entire system or another part of that system (Bull, 1975). This relation is expressed as a power function in the form of. Where y is some variable, x is a measure of size, and b is some scaling exponent. In this paper, in addressing this kind of scaling, Hack’s law was emphasized because it could show the basin shape changes under allometric relations. This relation is central to the study of scaling in river networks. 2- Methodology In current study, results of evaluations of 40 drainage basins morphology were presented to predict the changes of basin shape through evolution process. This evaluation was on the basis of location of these basins in four morphogenetic systems in Iran. Also the role of these systems (include humid, cold, warm and humid-warm systems) in creation of special relations (allometric relations) was studied. For this purpose, in each morphogenetic system, 10 basins were selected and to define the basin shape, compactness (gravelius) and circularity indices were calculated. Then, the relations between main stream length and basin area in each group of basins (in Hack’s law framework) were analyzed and the exponent of Hack’s equation was used as an index for the effect of morphogenetic systems on drainage basins shape. Hack’s exponent ‘h’ is empirically found to lie in the range from 0.5 to 0.7. (l=main stream length, L= basin length, a=basin area)., 0.5

Introduction Despite the many tourist attractions of Shiraz, the city lacks efficient transportation facilities for foreign tourists in order to easeing their movement through the urban area or outside destinations. It is required to discover efficient transport modes which comply with the tastes and demands of tourists. Also it is important to understand the factors affecting the modal choice. This study investigates the movement patterns of foreign tourists and the factors influencing their modal choice. The purpose of this study is to identify the overall image of behavioral patterns of foreign tourists in order to an efficient planning for tourism in the city of Shiraz. 2- Methodology This cross-sectional study is based on a field study. The required information was collected through the questionnaire filled by tourists who visited the city landmarks, including the tomb of Saadi, Hafez mausoleum, Vakil Bazaar, etc. A sample of 100 is taken. The behavior of tourists in selecting a mode is taken as the dependent variable. The independent variables include the type of trip, how to access tourist attractions, quality of roads and vehicles, security, safety, punctuality, number of partners, distance, hotel quality (star), familiarity with the Persian language and travel expense. Two analytical methods were applied: a) the descriptive analysis of the general characteristics of tourists; b) statistical analysis including multi-nominal logistic regression, Chi-square test, and Cramer's coefficient. Therefore both casual and correlation analyses are applied to investigate the relationships between dependent and independent variables. 3– Discussion Based on the sampling carried out, 60 percent of these people have traveled by plane to Shiraz and 28 percent were via bus to the city, while about 10 percent by car (car rental) and 2 percent have traveled by train to Shiraz. According to the survey result, most of the tourists were satisfied with the security, safety and attitude, and least satisfied with the quality of vehicles, roads and punctuality. The correlation test results indicate that the choice of travel was associated with a number of factors such as the type of journey, how access to tourist attractions, quality roads, security, safety, punctuality, number of partners, distance, hotel quality, familiarity with the Persian language and travel costs. Also the number of partners showed to be an important factor. In fact, those who travel alone, have more freedom in choosing a mode. The hotel features which is reflected in its number of stars also played an important role in the choice of travel by tourists. High quality hotels offered more movment facilities including rentl cars or vans available for guests. The majority of trips made by car were though the rental cars which are offered by hosting hotels. Furthermore, proficiency in Persian had been a signifact factor in choosing a travel mode by tourists. In fact, since most tourists were not familiar with the Persian language, they preferred rent a car or tour bus which had the driver as a tour leader. Punctuality or predictablity in travel time and waiting time had a significant relationship with the choice of vehicle. According to tourists’ opinion, punctuality and timely movement of vehicles and less waiting time help tourists to have a better visiting plan and to speed up the process of their journey. 4– Conclusion In this study, the general travel behaviour of 100 tourists in Shiraz was studied. The survey showed that the majority of tourists arrived to this city by plane. The correlation between modal choice and a number of variables such as the type of journey, how access to tourist attractions, road quality, vehicle quality, safety, security, punctuality, number of partners, travel distance, hotel quality, familarity with Persian language, and the cost of travel was studied. The results of this study can be used to make policy recommendations in hope of reducing negative aspects of hospititality. Some of recomondations include: creating a network of semi-public transport for tourists which is independent from the current public transport network; providing more options for tourism travel; increasing the quality of current vehicles and improving the percieved security in urban areas for encouraging tourists to walk around. According to feel and experience of tourists in car use (taxi, rental cars), it is necessary for tourist taxis that serve specific routes to provide sufficient facilities. It is necessary to taxi drivers to be mastered at least one foreign language, learn how to deal with the tourists and obey timetables. Also by the creation of bicycle paths in touristic areas the use of cars can be reduced. Moreover, with increasing legibility of urban areas and sufficient lightening, the readability of city for tourists will be improved.

Introduction One of the important issues of water quality management is control the sediment load input to water resources. Also sediment load is a major factor in the detection of non-point pollution sources and the design and construction of water structures such as dams and reservoirs. Assessment of soil erosion and sediment yield in the watersheds is necessary to achieve proper land management and improve water and soil quality and quantity (Sadeghi et al, 2008). Afsari and Ghodousi (2011), evaluated13 different methods of estimation of sediment delivery ratio (SDR) under different climatic conditions.Results showed that Mou & Meng (1980) and Roehl (1977) methodswith lower relativediffersare the most appropriate methods in Khomein and Mezelghan watersheds.The purpose of this study, was to comparison of 45 different methods to estimation of sediment delivery ratio in three different climatic regionin Babolroud (Mazandaran province), Banadak Sadat (Yazd province) and Dehgolan (Kordestan province) watersheds. 2- Methodology In this study, after collecting the necessary data and sediment values measured at the outlet of the three watersheds (Babolroud, Banadak Sadat and Dehgolan), sediment delivery ratio was estimated using different methods and then the best methods was selected using statistical indices. For doing this, data from Ghoran Talar station (Babolroud watershed), Tezerjan station (Banadak Sadat watershed) and Dehgolan station (Dehgolan watershed) was used to measure of observed suspended sediment, also to predict SDR, soil erosion was estimated by EPM method. 3- Conclusion Results indicated that Renfro graphic method (1975), Swif & Lioyd method (2002) and SWAT method (2005) with relative differby 2.29%, 3.33% and 7.21% respectively, are the appropriate methods for estimating the sediment delivery ratio in Babolroud watershed that located in the north of Iran. These methods can be used to estimation ofsediment delivery ratio and also convert erosion to sediment in regions with similar climates (moderate and humid). Swif & Lioyd (2002), Roeal 2 (1962) and N Shaanxi CHINA methods with relative differby 6.87%, 8.59% and 15.67% respectively, are the best methods in Banadak Sadat watershed where located in the centre of Iran, thereforethese methods can be proposed for other areas with warm and dry climate. Also SWAT (1996), Central & Eastern USA and Vanani 2 (1975) methods with relative differ by 4.85%, 7.79% and 8.25% respectively, are the appropriate methods for estimating the sediment delivery ratio in Dehgolan watershed that located in the west of Iran, therefore can be used in regions with similar climates (semi-arid and cold).

1- Playa saline zones as ecological environment has been regarded by researchers and many researchers have been seeking new methods for studying this phenomenon, because access to these areas due to special circumstances, it has always been difficult and limited (Metternicht et al, 2010: 324). Monitoring of saline arid zones in sustainable development and environmental protection is an important parameter. Monitoring of this phenomenon requires extraction and thematic maps at different times. Remote sensing technology is an effective method for obtaining the required data. This procedure avoids the usual constraints of time and place (Rezaie Moghadam, 2005: 221). Limitations on the use of satellite data to produce maps of salt affected areas of the spectral behavior of salt types, spatial distribution of salts on the surface, the changes in salinity, vegetation as barrier and spectral mixing with other levels of the ground depends (Alavipanah, 2002: 451). The main objective of this study was to assess methods saline mining zones and provide a new method for monitoring the spatial extent of this phenomenon with the satellite images of Playa. With regard to the above and the saline playa zones, monitoring area of saline cover in this study using IRS-P6 satellite images LISSIII sensor can be studied in 2010. The study area for this research is the watershed cover at 35 degrees 53 minutes north latitude and 36 degrees 17 minutes and 54 degrees 35 minutes east longitude and 55 degrees 18 minutes East province is located in the southeastern city of Damghan which has a stretch east - west with an area of 2474700 hectares. Cover an area of ​​239,100 hectares where the desert playa Haji Aliguli (Chjam) with an area of ​​46,600 hectares is located. 2- The data used in this study, IRS-P6 satellite image sensor LISSIII 2010. This sensor is equivalent bands TM2, TM3, TM4 and TM5 and ground resolution 5/23 meter bands visible light and near- infrared and mid- latitude and their shooting is 140 kilometers (Alavipanah, 2006: 53). According to a study that evaluates conventional separation zones cover and thematic mapping of the salt processing satellite imagery, the methods of research proposed in this color eye pseudo seizure interpretation, use of the combine the gangs respect on the threshold Histogram images. After applying this correction, the entire image area of ​​study was attempting to cut a small part of the full frame range used in satellite images. Thus, the next operation was performed on the cropped area. Next, in order to separate the saline from the area of ​​the image with the proposed method, the images were ILWIS3.3 software. Due to the complex interaction of a range saline and other phenomena in the area of ​​Playa cover and requires high precision in the final output efficiency of each of the proposed methods mentioned were analyzed. 3– Powerful tool in the field of remote sensing to study different ecosystems, such as Playa environments in order to produce valuable data and useful. Threshold on the histogram of the common methods that can be used to blank the saline extracted from satellite images. Due to the fact that the spectral reflectance of salt compared to other phenomena in the mid-infrared bands is very small allotment and close to zero, so the blank extract saline from satellite imagery, the action threshold are one of the mid-infrared bands. It should be noted that the choice of the threshold value is difficult in practice because the same underlying removing salt from saline zones is not possible or careless. Although this method has high accuracy, but it can be easily extracted automatically and quickly raised. Ratio between the bands used to extract saline zones is also difficult because of the different coatings than in places where the ground does not have the results. 4– Due to the variable nature of the salt zone boundary lines are part of its natural features, its continuous monitoring does not appear very good based on visual interpretation. Due to the complex nature of these problems and Damghan playa new method presented in this study and were analyzed. This method is based on combining the method of threshold and ratio between bands. This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of monitoring area Saline Damghan playa LISSIII sensor image processing was done in 2010 found that between two methods of spectral bands and threshold rationing on the image histogram for monitoring and mapping arid zones saline is a good way. The results also showed that measures of Damghan playa salt RSCI and NDSCI the resolution satellite imagery mapping and monitoring their performance.

Introduction The spatiotemporal changes of precipitation may be result in some dangerous phenomena like as runoff and drought. During recent years to accompany with hot climate change dialogs trend of changes in many climate parameters specially precipitation has been subject of almost researches in Iran and out of it. With quick look at researches over precipitation, we can observe that subject of almost is variation in amount precipitation and its impact on the river outflow, the frequency of rainy days (0.1, 0.5 and 1 mm), the frequency of extreme precipitation (quintiles, 90, 95 and 99 percentiles), amount of precipitation result from that rainfalls and detection and trend of drought occurrence by different indices (specially precipitation). The precipitation has vary non known behaviors and although many worthwhile studies have been done by researches but so far not any one studied precipitation persistency over Kurdistan Province. 2-Methodology To doing this study daily precipitation data from 188 synoptic, climatic and rain gauge stations in province and out of it during 1/1/1340 to 29/12/1388 extracted from power and meteorology organizations. By statistic spatial Kriging method for every days one map created. Then data over province on the 811 pixels that covers whole of province extracted. One data base in 17897*811 dimensions has been created that locate on the rows days and on the columns pixels. For every pixels precipitation persistency calculated. The methods of applied in this study obtained from Nazari Pour et al., 1390. The rainy days consider a days that amount of precipitation equal and more than 0.5 mm during 24 hours. The extensive of every precipitation persistency over Kurdistan province (AP_i) by following formula has been calculated (Nazari Pour et al., 1390): (1) AP_i=(∑_(j=1)^n▒P_i)/N×100 That i equal to persistency that changes from 1 to 37 days and j is pixels that persistency occurred on it that vary from 1 to 811. P is the precipitation persistency and N is the total of pixels. The contribution of the precipitation persistency in rainy days and amount precipitation over every pixels calculated by 2 and 3 formula: (2) X(j,i)=R_(j,i)/(∑_(i=1)^37▒R_(j,i))×100 That X(j,i) is the contribution of rainy days on the j that with persistency of i and R_(j,i) is the rainy days frequency on the j that obtained from of i^th persistency. (3) Y(j,i)=P_(j,i)/(∑_(i=1)^37▒P_(j,i))×100 In the above formula P(j,i) is the amount of precipitation on the j that obtained from of i^th persistency and Y_(j,i) is the percent of precipitation contribution on the j from of i^th persistency. The trend of persistency precipitation over each pixels during study period evaluated by Mann Kendal non parametric test in 95% confidence level. 3- Disscution The results show that persistency precipitation of 1 to 9 days recorded on the whole province. The highest extensive significant changes in contribution of persistency precipitation in rainy days and amount relevant to January and April. Also the highest changes among persistency precipitations observed for 1 days persistency precipitations. The long time persistency precipitation didn’t have any changes during study period. The contribution of short time persistency precipitations in rainy days and amount over semi eastern parts of province show decreasing trend. In contrast for semi western parts short time persistency precipitations have increasing trend. The decrease in precipitation over semi eastern parts and concentration and ascendency of precipitation intensity in semi western parts of province results in many problems for water management.

Introduction One of important conditions in time series data analysis is their stationary. If mathematical expectancy for a data series is independent with respect to the time, the mentioned series will be stationary. Since, the time series is often Non-stationary, it is necessary to recognize non-stationary agents and to remove them. One of the most important agents which conduct to create non-stationary in time series data is the trend component. Van Belle and Hughes (1984) studied homogenous of river Water quality trend Mann - Kendall non-parametric method. The use of mentioned method was a turning point in hydrology processes study. Lettenmaier et al (1994) studied the pattern of river flow rate trend. De Witt et al (2001) investigated the trend of rivers flow rates in Belgium. Their result study showed that in the recent century the trend of mean annual and seasonal discharge for studied rivers was increasing. Kahya and Kalayci (2004), studied the trend of river flow rate in 26 watershed in Turkey. Their results showed that in the most studied watersheds, the trend of rivers discharge was decreasing. They concluded that this decreasing trend can be explained by rainfall decreasing and temperature increasing. Wang et al (2005) investigated the trend of rivers discharges in west of Europe using Mann-Kendall method. Karla et al (2008) studied the trend of flow rate in united state. Birsan et al (2008) in the second half 20th century studied 60 rivers flow rates trend in Romania for period of 30, 40 and 50 years. They obtained the Relations between mentioned trends other parameters as temperature and precipitation change and physical properties. In their studies, watershed physical properties contained watershed area, average slope and height of the watershed, drainage channel density, watershed shape factor, average soil depth and other variables. Due the Urmia lake depth decreasing, many problems have been formed about its survival and wild life. Investigation of Discharge volume, drought volume, and its return can be useful to prevent water depth falling. There the study of drought volume trend for Urmia lake Watersheds River can has an important role in this process. Methodology In the recent research, the rivers daily discharge (m3 / s) in Western Azerbaijan province were used. Rivers drought volume was extracted and then the trends of obtained data were investigated. Extraction of drought volume of daily river flow during durability In this study, for determination or river Drought volume using daily flow rate, average annual method was used. The time series data of the daily river discharges were used 60 determine the drought duration disabilities. At first average annual for every day from a year was calculated. For example, f0r 1 January the equation (1) was used to determine average annual. average year for 1th January=(Flow of 1th Jan for year 1977 +⋯..+Flow of 1th Jan for year 2011)/(number of years) (1) Then daily discharge was subtracted from average annual of the same say. With selecting the maximum of continues drought volume for 1 until n days, drought durations for mentioned periods were extracted. After these extractions, for years with lack data the time series was completed using regression method. Trend Analysis After extracting drought volume with spatial duration, the extract data were investigated and compared in the statistical period using Mann-Kendall, Spearman and Turning Point methods. The Value of z in Mann- Kendal and Turning points methods were tested in the 5% significance level and if the mentioned values are between - 1.66 and +1.96, the data will not have the trend (Safavi, 2009).... Discussion The result of the drought Volume extraction for studied Rivers in Urmia Lake watershed showed that the pattern of the drought volume changes in different durability were similar each others, that a high correlation was obtained between different durability data. Therefore the trend investigation for a selected durability will be sufficient for the investigation of other durability. In the present research, One-day duration was selected as representative of other durability. The results of trend investigation using Turning Point test showed that, the most Rivers in Urmia Lake watershed did not have one-day drought volume trend. But, this point was rejected according to the one-day drought volume graphs of Urmia Lakes Rivers and the mentioned graphs can be examined the graphs as a counterexample for turning points method. The results of the Mann – Kendall method showed that ther were non-significant increasing trend in drought volume rivers data in Mahabadchay, Gadarchay, Siminehrood, Zolachay and Rozehchay Rivers, and there were significant increasing trend in Zarinehrood, Barandozchay, Shahrchay and Nazloochaey Rivers. In this method (MK), no decreasing trend was obtained. The graphs of the drought volume Rivers data showed an increasing trend. Also, according to the drought volume Rivers data graphs and slope of the trend line in these graphs, it can be concluded that the Mann - Kendall provides more accurate results than the Turning Point method. Spearman's test results also confirmed method. Conclusions Due to result of the drought volume Rivers graphs and Mann- Kendall and turning points methods, can be concluded that the Turning Point method was not suitable method to study the River drought volume for Urmia Lake watersheds. For a better Survey and conclusion, Spearman test was added to the list of Trend methods. Spearman test also rejected the Turning Points results. The results of Mann - Kendall and Spearman methods were very similar each other. According to the graphs and using the obtained results of Mann - Kendall and Spearman methods, the mild increasing trend was observed in Zarinehrood, Shahrchay, Nazloochaey and Barandoezchay watershed. So that the mentioned watersheds can be seen as no trend watersheds. In Zolachay, Siminehrood, Gadarchay, Rozehchay and Mahabadchay Rivers, increasing trend in drought volume Rivers were observed. The results also indicated that the increasing trend in volume Drought River for was occurred and the North-West of the Urmia lake, that this due showed that decreasing trend in the daily discharge data for this area.

Introduction Human-nature interaction can be considered at the macro or micro levels. At the micro level, individual-level analysis is performed. The most important variables in this level include attitude, belief, motivation, perception, personality traits, specific behaviors, general worldview and values. Unlike other demographic variables such as environmental attitudes and behaviors, there has been little done on environmental values. One reason is that this is a new topic in environmental research because the study of human value orientations relate to contemporary environmental concerns. Environmental attitudes and values also play an important role in determining the tendency of people to perform an action towards environmental protection. Value orientations towards the environment can be separated to anthropocentric value orientation and non-anthropocentric ones. Furthermore, value orientations can be investigated in four levels, namely anthropocentrism, biocentrism, ecocentrism and Theocentrism. Studies have shown a positive relationship between ecocentric value orientation and environmental protection behaviors. Studies indicated that anthropocentric and biocentric value orientations can be predicted normative behaviors of forest parks visitors. For example, people with anthropocentric view are more likely opposed to conservation strategies. The present study was conducted to answer the question of what are the relationships between value orientations and environmentally friendly behaviors. 2-Methodology This study was conducted by survey research. The study population was people that have been in Golstan province forests parks for recreation and leisure. Using stratified random sampling, 100 people in each forest parks and totally 300 people were selected as sample. Data collection was conducted using a questionnaire. Two indicators were used to assess the environmental behaviors. One indicator for general environmentally friendly behavior and other for environmental practices in forest parks. The validity was confirmed by face validity and the reliability was assessed by calculating Cronbach's alpha. Study data were analyzed using SPSS statistical software. For data analysis, statistics such as mean, frequency, percentage, Analysis of variance, correlation and T-test were used. 3-Discussion Forest parks visitors view on anthropocentric perspective are below average and may be evaluated moderately downward the mean. Ecocentric view is slightly more than the average and may be close to the maximum possible score. Therefore, it can be evaluated as good. Pearson correlation coefficients indicate that there is no significant correlation between age and value orientation towards environmental. But there is a significant positive correlation between ecocentric and Theocentric value orientations. T-test indicated that there is no significant difference between men and women and also between married and single persons in terms of value orientation towards environment. But there is a positive and significant correlation between environmentally friendly behaviors and ecocentric view. Also, no significant correlation was found between antropocentric and Thoeocentric views and environmentally friendly practices. In contrast, there is a significant positive relationship between ecocentric and Theocentric value orientations with environmentally actions referred in Forest Parks. Thus, it could be expected that people with better environmentally friendly practices also show better environmental practices in forest parks. 4-Conclusion This study showed that visitors of forest parks are stronger in the Theocentric value orientation than ecocentric and anthropocentric ones. Also, the anthropocentric is the weakest value orientation toward the environment. It should be noted that the low weight of anthropocentric value orientation among the study population is not an enough reason to have environmentally friendly behavior. Environmental behavior can be formed on any value orientation towards the environment. Nevertheless, the findings of this study showed that environmentally friendly behavior is independent of the anthropocentric value orientation. These findings confirm the importance of avoiding anthropocentric value orientation to have environmentally friendly behaviors.