- پیاپی 53 (بهار 1395)
- تاریخ انتشار: 1395/02/20
- تعداد عناوین: 15
صفحات 1-21پژوهش حاضر با روش شناسی «توصیفی–تحلیلی» در راستای اولویت سنجی معیارهای برنامه ریزی غیر اقلیدسی جان فریدمن در فرآیند برنامه ریزی شهری ایران به انجام رسیده است. جهت دستیابی به هدف پژوهش با بهره گیری از روش پیمایشی و با ابزار پرسشنامه از نظرات 30 نفر از کارشناسان مرتبط با حوزه پژوهش استفاده شده است. برای جمع آوری و تحلیل داده های پژوهش، ابتدا بر اساس نظریه برنامه ریزی غیر اقلیدسی جان فریدمن معیارهای و زیرمعیارهای پژوهش در 5 معیار اصلی تحت عنوان رویکرد هنجاری، نوآورانه، سیاسی، تعاملی و رویکرد مبتنی بر یادگیری اجتماعی و 21 زیرمعیار برای هر کدام از معیارهای اصلی استخراج و تدوین شدند و پس از نظرسنجی از کارشناسان منتخب پژوهش با استفاده از مدل تحلیل سلسله مراتبی دلفی فازی (FDAHP) مورد ارزیابی و تحلیل قرار گرفتند. مطابق با نتایج به دست آمده، رویکرد تعامل گرایانه در بین 5 معیار اصلی نظریه غیر اقلیدسی جان فریدمن با کسب حداکثر 769/0 وزن فازی و 445/0 وزن غیر فازی دارای اولویت بیش تری نسبت به دیگر معیارها از دیدگاه کارشناسان می باشد. از سوی دیگر در قسمت زیر معیارهای پژوهش زیر معیارهای مربوط به رویکرد تعامل گرایانه عمدتا حائز امتیاز بیش تری از سوی کارشناسان گردیدند به طوری که در این میان داشتن رویکرد موقعیت مبنا و در تعامل با ساختار برنامه ریزی مشارکتی با کسب 711/0 حداکثر وزن فازی و 066/0 وزن غیرفازی به عنوان یکی از زیرمعیارهای معیار تعامل گرایانه بیش ترین وزن را از سوی کارشناسان به خود اختصاص داده است.کلیدواژگان: برنامه ریزی شهری، برنامه ریزی غیر اقلیدسی، جان فریدمن، منطق فازی
صفحات 23-37اکنون که مناطق روستایی کشور با مشکلاتی همچون بیکاری، بهره وری پایین کشاورزی، مهاجرت روز افزون به شهرها و حاشیه نشینی مواجه اند، توسعه گردشگری روستایی می تواند در جهت رفع این مشکلات موثر واقع شود. با توجه به اهمیت موضوع، این تحقیق به صورت توصیفی-پیمایشی و با هدف بررسی موانع توسعه گردشگری در روستای ساحلی آق گنبد از توابع شهرستان اسکو واقع در استان آذربایجان شرقی انجام گرفت. جامعه آماری این تحقیق را 759 نفر از روستاییان روستای آق گنبد تشکیل می دادند که بر اساس جدول کرجسی-مورگان، تعداد 240 نفر از آنان از طریق نمونه گیری تصادفی برای انجام تحقیق انتخاب شدند. برای گردآوری داده ها از پرسشنامه استفاده شد که روایی آن با نظر پانلی از اعضای هیات علمی دانشگاه تهران مورد تایید قرار گرفت. برای تعیین پایایی ابزار تحقیق، پیش آزمون انجام گرفت که مقدار آلفای کرونباخ محاسبه شده برای مقیاس اصلی پرسشنامه یعنی موانع توسعه گردشگری روستایی 97/0 بود. نتایج کسب شده از تحلیل عاملی نشان داد که سه عامل زیرساختاری-رفاهی، اجتماعی-فرهنگی و سازمانی-ساختاری در حدود 56/60 درصد از واریانس کل موانع توسعه گردشگری در روستای آق گنبد را تبیین می نمایند.کلیدواژگان: توسعه گردشگری، توریسم روستایی، شهرستان اسکو، گردشگری روستایی
صفحات 39-56توده کوهستانی درفک یکی از مهم ترین عوارض البرز غربی در استان گیلان است که علاوه بر ارزش های زیست محیطی و گردشگری، به دلیل وجود اشکال کارستی، برای ژئومورفولوگ ها و پژوهشگران از لحاظ علمی-آموزشی نیز دارای اهمیت است. در این مقاله، نخست، جغرافیای طبیعی و زمین شناسی کوه درفک بررسی و سپس اشکال کارستی منطقه بر پایه بازدیدهای میدانی، تشریح گردید. اشکال کارست سطحی در توده کوهستانی درفک را می توان به دو بخش: اشکال کارستی موجود در محدوده جنگلی و مرتعی و دیگری در اراضی بدون پوشش گیاهی، تقسیم بندی کرد. در دامنه های شمالی درفک، اشکالی نظیر دولین سبز و کارن (لاپیه) با خاک و گیاهان، پوشیده شده است. در مناطق بالا تر از درخت مرز، اشکال کارست شامل، دو دولین بزرگ، تعداد زیادی دولین کوچک و حفره های بلعنده آب است ولی کارن ها، گستردگی بیش تر و چشم گیرتری دارند. بر روی دامنه جنوبی و ارتفاعات بالا، علاوه بر غار رشی، چند دره کانیونی کوچک در اطراف روستای سی دشت، یک دره کانیونی بزرگ و شاخص نیز، شکل گرفته است.کلیدواژگان: ژئومورفولوژی، کارست سطحی، دولین، کوه درفک، گیلان
ارزیابی تحلیلی گستردگی فضایی-کالبدی مناطق شهری و تاثیر آن بر تغیرات کاربری اراضی با استفاده از GIS و RS (مطالعه موردی: شیراز طی دوره زمانی 1366-1392)صفحات 57-76رشد و گسترش فیزیکی شهر فرآیندی پویا و مداوم است و امروزه به یکی از معضلات فضاهای شهری تبدیل شده است که طی آن محدوده های شهری و فضای های کالبدی آن ها در جهات عمودی و افقی باعث گسترده شدن شهرها به خارج از محدوده شهر می شود و اراضی اطراف شهرها تسخیر شده و تبدیل به سکونتگاه های جدید می شود. روش تحقیق در این پژوهش توصیفی-تحلیلی استفاده گردیده است. در این مقاله با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره ای چند زمانه لندست 5 و 8 و با استفاده از تکنیک های پردازش تصاویر ماهواره ای تغییرات کاربری زمین در مقاطع زمانی 1366 تا 1392 با تاکید بر گسترش فضائی-کالبدی شهر شیراز مورد ارزیابی تحلیلی قرار گرفته و با استفاده از فنون پیش بینی تغییرات کاربری زمین از جمله روش تلفیقی سلول های خودکار و زنجیره های مارکوف روند احتمالی گسترش شهر شیراز تا سال 1402 مورد پیش بینی قرار گرفته است. شهر شیراز به عنوان مهم ترین مرکز جمعیتی و کلان شهر جنوب ایران در سال های اخیر مواجه با رشد بی رویه شهری بوده است؛ نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد که مقدار مساحت ساخته شده شهر شیراز از 7327 هکتار در سال 1366 به 61/19451 هکتار در سال 1392 افزایش یافته است. نتایج حاصل از مدل های آنتروپی شانون و هلدرن نشان می دهد که مقدار آنتروپی شهر شیراز در سال 1366 برابر با 4777/2 بوده است، درحالی که ارزش 1972/2 Ln (9)= است. این مقدار در سال 1392، برابر 6957/2 بوده است. بر اساس مدل زنجیره مارکوف–سلول های خودکار، کاربری ساخته شده در سال 1402 در حدود 61/23096 افزایش داشته است که نسبت به سال 1392 حدود 3645 هکتار افزایش داشته است یافته های تحقیق نشان می دهد که گسترش کالبدی-فضایی شهر شیراز در امتداد جنوب شرقی و شمال غربی می باشد.کلیدواژگان: گستردگی، آنتروپی، زنجیره مارکوف، سلول های خودکار، شیراز، GIS
صفحات 77-96دشت های سیلابی و مناطق مجاور رودخانه ها که به دلیل شرایط خاص خویش فضاهایی مناسب برای انجام فعالیت های اقتصادی و اجتماعی محسوب می شوند، همواره در معرض خطرات ناشی از وقوع سیلاب ها قرار دارند. از این رو در این مناطق تعیین میزان پیشروی سیلاب و ارتفاع آن نسبت به رقوم سطح زمین و نیز تعیین خصوصیات سیلاب در دوره بازگشت های مختلف که تحت عنوان پهنه بندی سیلاب صورت می گیرد، حائز اهمیت فراوان خواهد بود. در این راستا این تحقیق با هدف تلفیق مدل هیدرولیکی HEC-RAS با نرم افزارArcGIS از طریق الحاقیه HEC-GeoRAS به برآورد پهنه-سیل در حوضه آبریز منشاد یزد می پردازد. در این پژوهش که از نقشه های رقومی مختلف استفاده شد، گستره سیلاب در اراضی حاشیه رودخانه برای سیلاب با دوره بازگشت های 2، 5، 10، 25، 50، 100 و 200 سال محاسبه گردید. مشاهده شد که تلفیق سیستم های اطلاعات جغرافیایی با مدل HEC-RAS در تحلیل مناطق سیل گیر باعث تسهیل محاسبات و کاهش عملیات میدانی است و کاربرد آن در آبریزها توصیه میشود. در این پژوهش پهنه سیلاب محاسبه شده (دوره بازگشت 200 سال) دارای مساحت 9/8 کیلومتر مربع می باشد که بیش ترین مساحت به اراضی کشاورزی (به مساحت 45/71 هکتار) و باغی (77/12 هکتار) اختصاص داشت.کلیدواژگان: پهنه بندی، سیل، منشاد، HEC، RAS، ArcGIS، . HEC، GeoRAS
صفحات 97-121یکی از مهم ترین نتایج شهرنشینی معاصر، پیدایش و گسترش محلات آسیب پذیر در متن یا حاشیه شهرها است. معمولا ساکنان این واحدها را سکنه غیررسمی می دانند که در شهرها زندگی می کنند ولی به دلیل مجموعه عواملی نتوانسته اند جذب نظام اقتصادی-اجتماعی شهر شوند و به عنوان یک شهروند از امکانات و خدمات شهری بهره ببرند. لذا عدم برخورد منطقی با این واقعیت، دستیابی به توسعه پایدار شهری را با چالش اساسی مواجه می سازد. هدف اصلی این پژوهش، ارزیابی و تحلیل سطوح پایداری و ناپایداری شهری در سکونتگاه های غیررسمی شهر مهاباد و تلاش برای ارائه راهکارهایی برای ساماندهی آن ها است. روش تحقیق پژوهش حاضر توصیفی-تحلیلی و شیوه جمع آوری داده ها اسنادی و میدانی بوده است. حجم نمونه نیز از طریق فرمول کوکران به تعداد 381 به دست آمده است و روش توزیع پرسشنامه ها و نمونه ها به شکل نمونه گیری تصادفی مشخص شده است و با نرم افزار SPSS تحلیل شده است. سپس با تعیین متغیرهایی در هر یک از مولفه های سه گانه «اجتماعی-فرهنگی»، «اقتصادی» و «زیست محیطی» پایداری شهری مانند کیفیت و قدمت ساختمان، نوع مصالح و میزان دوام، سرانه کاربری، شیب، درصد باسوادی، بعد خانوار، تعداد خانوار، اوقات فراغت، خانوارهای بهره مند از امکانات، بیکاری، نوع شغل، بارتکفل، درآمد سرپرست خانوار به تفکیک محلات غیررسمی مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت.
نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد؛ میزان پایداری در تمامی متغیرهای انتخاب شده بسیار پایین است؛ اما در حالت کلی محله های سنجان آباد، کوی دانشگاه و شهرک کارمندان غربی شرایط مطلوب تر و وضعیت برخوردارتری را به لحاظ پایداری شاخص ها به نسبت سایر محلات دارا می باشند. در مقابل محلات پشت تپ، باغ شایگان و کانی صوفی طه از وضعیت نامساعدتر و محروم تری برخوردار می باشند. با توجه به یافته های پژوهش به نظر می رسد مهم ترین راهکار اجرایی جهت کاهش و تعدیل اسکان غیررسمی در شهر مهاباد به کارگیری راهبردهای ساماندهی و توانمندسازی این محله ها در سطوح ملی-منطقه ای و محلی به صورت هماهنگ است.کلیدواژگان: توسعه پایدار شهری، سطوح پایداری، اسکان غیررسمی، مهاباد
صفحات 123-150کاهش جریان رودخانه ها با عوامل متعددی از جمله عوامل طبیعی و انسانی می تواند در ارتباط باشد. کاهش دبی ورودی به دریاچه ارومیه سهم عمده ای را در کاهش سطح آب دریاچه داشته است. هدف از این تحقیق، بررسی تاثیر پارامترهای آب-و هوایی و عوامل انسانی، بر کاهش جریان رودخانه های شاخص جنوب شرق دریاچه ارومیه می باشد. روند تغییرات اقلیمی و هیدرولوژیکی توسط آزمون من کندال کلاسیک و اصلاح شده بررسی شدند. وضعیت خشک سالی های هواشناسی و هیدرولوژیکی به ترتیب با شاخص SPI وSDI مطالعه گردید و ارتباط این دو خشک سالی با استفاده از همبستگی پیرسون مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. وضعیت پوشش گیاهی و رطوبت خاک به ترتیب توسط شاخص NDVI و تبدیل تسلدکپ در دهه قبل و بعد از احداث سد علویان مطالعه گردید. در نهایت دبی پایین دست سد علویان با عناصر بارش و دبی ورودی به سد علویان با رگرسیون چندگانه بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد که از بین عوامل مورد مطالعه عمده ترین عامل کاهش جریان در بالادست حوضه ها، خشک سالی های هواشناسی بوده است. در پایین دست حوضه ها عوامل متعدد اقلیمی، افزایش پوشش گیاهی و رطوبت خاک و به طور کلی اضافه برداشت موثر بوده که در حوضه صوفی چای بهره برداری از سد علویان مهم ترین عامل شناخته شد.کلیدواژگان: کاهش جریان، پارامترهای اقلیمی، عوامل انسانی، دریاچه ارومیه
صفحات 151-172مسکن به عنوان سرپناهی امن و مناسب در گذر زمان و در برخورد با شرایط و ویژگی های اجتماعی، اقتصادی، سیاسی، فرهنگی، مذهبی و محیطی دستخوش تغییر و دگرگونی شده است و الگوهای متفاوتی را پذیرا گشته است؛ بنابراین هدف مقاله حاضر بررسی تاثیر تغییرات الگوی مسکن در روستا- شهرها می باشد. روش تحقیق توصیفی- تحلیلی، مبتنی بر بررسی منابع اسنادی، بررسی های میدانی و تکمیل پرسشنامه بوده است که پایایی پرسشنامه با استفاده از ضریب آلفای کرونباخ 79 درصد برآورد گردید. جامعه آماری تحقیق شامل کلیه خانوارهای روستا-شهر محمدآباد با حجم نمونه برابر با 348 خانوار است که به روش نمونه گیری تصادفی انتخاب و تکمیل گردید. داده ها با استفاده از نرم افزار SPSS، تجزیه وتحلیل شده اند. یافته ها نشان دهنده آن است که با توجه به نتایج آزمون کی -دو و سطح معناداری به دست آمده کوچک تر از 05/0 مساکن منطقه دارای کمبود فضاهای رفاهی
بوده اند و رفع همین کمبودها دلیلی بر روی آوردن ساکنان منطقه به الگوهای جدید مسکن بوده است. همچنین نتایج آزمون ویلکاکسون گویای آن است که بیش تر پاسخ دهندگان (50/86 درصد)، عقیده داشتند که تغییر الگوی ساخت مسکن بر افزایش کیفیت ابنیه و مصالح ساختمان آن ها موثر بوده است که آماره z با 312/7- و سطح معنی داری 000/0 نیز موید این مطلب است. نتایج دیگر تحقیق گویای آن است که مقدار مصرف انرژی از جمله مقدار مصرف کپسول گاز، مصرف نفت و مدت زمان استفاده از سیستم های سرمایشی و سیستم های گرمایشی در مساکن قدیمی کم تر از مساکن نوساز و جدید بوده است.کلیدواژگان: مسکن، تغییر الگو، روستا، شهر، محمدآباد
صفحات 173-192مطالعه حاضر به منظور شناخت عوامل موثر بر گرایش به مهاجرت به شهر جوانان روستایی شهرستان اهر بر اساس هدف کاربردی و روش تحقیق توصیفی- تحلیلی به مرحله اجرا درآمده است. با استفاده از شیوه نمونه گیری خوشه ای چند مرحله ای، 21 روستا انتخاب شده و تعداد 500 نفر از جوانان ساکن در این روستاها به روش نمونه گیری تصادفی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته اند. اطلاعات مورد نیاز با استفاده از ابزار پرسشنامه به دست آمده و تجزیه وتحلیل اطلاعات با استفاده از نرم افزارهای آماری SPSS و HLM صورت گرفته است. نتایج نشان می دهد وضعیت اقتصادی خانواده، نگرش به دافعه مبدا، نگرش به جاذبه مقصد، جمعیت ساکن در روستا و مسافت روستا از شهر، بر میزان گرایش به مهاجرت به شهر جوانان روستایی تاثیرگذار هستند. البته، بیش ترین درصد تغییرات میزان گرایش به مهاجرت به شهر جوانان روستایی توسط دو متغیر جمعیت روستا و مسافت روستا از شهر صورت گرفته است و نشان می دهد عوامل ساختاری نقش مهم تری در این زمینه دارند. از آنجا که مهاجرت جوانان منجر به تخلیه روستاها از نیروی جوان و فعال گردیده و باعث سالخورده تر شدن ترکیب سنی روستاهای مورد مطالعه گردیده است، لذا محرومیت زدایی روستاهای کم جمعیت و دورافتاده یکی از مهم ترین مواردی است که بایستی در دستور کار متولیان توسعه روستایی شهرستان اهر قرار گیرد.کلیدواژگان: جوانان روستایی، مهاجرت روستا، شهری، گرایش به مهاجرت، عوامل مهاجرت از روستا، شهرستان اهر
صفحات 193-208هدف از این مطالعه، بررسی و تحلیل تغییرات درون دهه ای دمای ایران می باشد. برای این منظور دمای ایران طی دوره 1390-1342 (پنج دهه) مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. برای بررسی تغییرات درون دهه ای از روش های زمین آمار موران محلی بهره گرفته شده است. در انجام محاسبات از امکانات برنامه نویسی در محیط نرم افزار Surfer و نرم افزارMatlab و نیز برای انجام عملیات ترسیمی از نرم افزار GIS بهره گرفته شد. ابتدا برای ایجاد نمای کلی از تغییرات درون دهه ای ایران آنومالی، گرانیگاه و توزیع مکانی میانگین برای هر دوره ترسیم گردیده است. نتایج نشان داد که عواملی محلی به ویژه ارتفاع و عرض جغرافیایی نقش بسزایی در ناهنجاری های دمای ایران داشته است به طوری که در هر پنج دوره شدیدترین ناهنجاری ها منطبق با نواحی کوهستانی و ارتفاعات بوده است این درحالی است که نواحی ساحلی کشور به دلیل عرض جغرافیایی پایین و ارتفاع کم تر دارای ناهنجاری های منفی بوده است. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل موران نشان داد که الگوی تغییرات درون دهه ای ایران طی دوره های مختلف تغییرات محسوسی داشته است اما در مجموع در هر پنج دوره نواحی ساحلی خلیج فارس دارای الگوی خوشه ای بالا (خود همبستگی فضایی مثبت) و رشته کوه زاگرس، شمال غرب کشور (بر فراز قلل سهند و سبلان)، بر فراز مرتفع ترین نقاط البرز (دماوند)، شمال شرق کشور در دامنه های شمال شرقی رشته کوه های خراسان و در مناطق مرتفع کرمان الگوی خوشه ای پایین یا خودهمبستگی فضایی منفی بوده است. مثبت و منفی بودن خود همبستگی در ارتباط با توزیع دما نشان از تمرکز بیشینه و کمینه این عنصر اقلیمی در منطقه دارد. با این وجود در تمام دوره ها این الگوی حاکم بر تغییرات درون دهه ای دما تقریبا یکسان بوده است.کلیدواژگان: دما، خودهمبستگی فضایی، موران محلی، آنومالی، ایران
بازسازی بیشینه و کمینه دمای فصلی از روی حلقه های درختی بلوط ایرانی (Quercus persica) در جنگل های زاگرس (مطالعه موردی منطقه دنا)صفحات 209-227آگاهی از اقلیم گذشته جهت پیش بینی و برنامه ریزی آینده نیاز به داده های اقلیمی صحیح و طولانی مدت دارد. در این مطالعه، اقدام به بازسازی میانگین بیشینه دمای فصل بهار و تابستان، کمینه دمای فصل پاییز و زمستان منطقه دنا، به کمک پهنای حلقه های سالیانه گونه بلوط ایرانی، توسط رگرسیون خطی ساده و درجه دو، شده است. با این هدف دو ارتفاع رویشی در جنگل های منطقه دنا انتخاب و 36 نمونه رویشی از 18 پایه در دو جهت جغرافیاییجنوب غربی و شمال شرقی، در قطر برابر سینه استخراج و توسط نرم افزار اتوکد با دقت 3 میکرون قرائت شدند. بعد از مرحله تطابق زمانی، برای حذف اثرات غیر اقلیمی، تمامی پارامترهای اقلیمی و سری زمانی حلقه های رویشی استاندارد شدند. گاه شناسی باقی مانده (RES) محاسبه شده (توسط نرم افزار ARSTAN)، با متغیرهای اقلیمی طی دوره 1390-1361 واسنجی و همبستگی معنادار مثبت متغیرها با پهنای دوایر رویشی تایید شد. بر اساس روابط و همبستگی بین گاه شناسی به دست آمده و داده های اقلیمی دوره آماری مشترک، کار بازسازی متغیرهای اقلیمی انجام و مشخص شد در سه دهه اخیر، میانگین بیشینه دمای بهار و تابستان، کمینه دمای پاییز و زمستان، نسبت به میانگین یک قرن قبل از خود، روند افزایشی داشته اند. در سه دهه اخیر از سرمای فصل سرد کاسته شده و در مقابل به گرمای فصل گرم، اضافه شده است.کلیدواژگان: اقلیم شناسی درختی، حلقه های رویشی، تحلیل رگرسیونی، گونه بلوط ایرانی
صفحات 229-251در این مطالعه برای اولین بار عوامل موثر در پیدایش پدیده برف دریاچه ای و اثر آن بر رخداد برف های سنگین در حاشیه ی جنوب غربی دریای خزر طی سال های 2012 - 1982 مورد سنجش قرار گرفت. بدین منظور با استفاده از آمارهای بارش روزانه و ارتفاع برف، مجموعا 7 موج بارش برف سنگین شناسایی و به کمک داده های مرکز ملی پیش بینی محیطی آمریکا (NCEP/NCAR)، میادین فشار، دما، ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیلی، مولفه های مداری باد و مولفه نصف النهاری باد مطالعه شدند. برای اثبات اثر دریای خزر روی سامانه های عبوری، شارهای سطحی شامل شار گرمای نهان ، شار گرمای محسوس، دمای هوای 2 متری ، میدان باد 10 متری و داده های روزانه ی دمای سطح آب (SST) دریای خزر، استخراج و نقشه های مربوط به آن ها و همچنین تفاضل دمای آب وهوای مجاور، طی دوره ی بارش برف رسم و تبیین گردید. نتایج نشان می دهند در تمامی موارد زبانه ی توده ی هوای پرفشار با منشا های مختلف که دارای هسته قوی و سرد می باشند در لایه های زیرین وردسپهر از روی سطح خزر عبور کرده و به سواحل جنوب غربی خزر وارد می شوند. علاوه بر سازوکار میان مقیاس و دینامیک حاکم بر ساختار سامانه های ذکر شده، دمای سطح دریا (SST) و به تبع آن میزان شارهای سطحی (شار گرمای نهان و شار رطوبت) مبادله شده بین سطح آب و توده ی هوای عبوری، نقش تعیین کننده ای در شدت بارش برف ایفا می کند. همچنین طول مسیر پیمایش توده ی هوا از روی پهنه ی آبی و منشای توده هوای سطحی نیز روی مقادیر کمی بارش موثر می باشند. در برخی موارد، شکل گیری الگوی بندال در لایه های میانی وردسپهر موجب بندآیی سامانه ی بارشی، تداوم انتقال شارهای سطحی و ماندگاری چندین روزه ی بارش برف در منطقه می گردد.کلیدواژگان: پدیده برف دریاچه ای، دمای سطح دریا، شار گرما، شار رطوبت، دریای خزر
ارزیابی الگوی رشد هوشمند شهری در شهرهای جدید ایران با تاکید بر شهر جدید صدرا با استفاده از مدل SLEUTHصفحات 253-270در سال های اخیر گسترش بی رویه و سریع نواحی شهری به همراه تراکم و تمرکز بیش از حد جمعیت در محدوده های کلان شهری ایران، تداوم حیات سالم شهری را در ابعاد مختلف با مخاطره و چالش های جدی مواجه نموده است. با به کارگیری چنین رویکردی در فضاهای شهری، با گذشت زمان شهرها دیگر توان ارائه خدمات لازم به شهروندان خود را در چارچوب محدوده فضایی و جغرافیایی خود نداشته و توسعه فضایی مطلوب با تاکید بر مفاهیم رشد هوشمند شهری را به عنوان چاره ای برای پایان بخشیدن به بی برنامگی توسعه فیزیکی شهرها مد نظر قرار داده اند. از این رو، هدف مقاله حاضر، تحلیل الگوی رشد هوشمند شهری با استفاده از مدل SLEUTH در شهر جدید صدرا به عنوان نمونه مورد مطالعه در پژوهش حاضر می باشد. روش تحقیق به کار گرفته شده،
توصیفی-تحلیلی، مبتنی بر مطالعات کتابخانه ای، اسنادی و تحلیل های مدلی است. در ادامه این روند، داده های تاریخی به-دست آمده به کمک تصاویر ماهواره ای که در دوره های مختلف زمانی از شهر جدید صدرا گرفته شده بودند، طی سه مرحله (مرحله اول: تحلیل فرآیند رشد تاریخی محدوده مورد مطالعه، مرحله دوم: شناسایی محدودیت های توسعه آتی شهر جدید صدرا و مرحله سوم: توجه به پراکنش مطلوب و نامطلوب فضایی) مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که ارزش زمین های حاشیه ای و تاثیرات شیب بر توسعه شهر جدید صدرا، از جمله عوامل مهم در چگونگی رشد هوشمند شهری در شهر جدید صدرا به حساب می آید. در پایان بر مبنای الگوریتم حاصل از تحلیل عوامل موثر بر این پراکنش شهری، الگوی فضایی رشد شهر جدید صدرا طی سال های 1410 تا 1430 ارائه گردید.کلیدواژگان: توسعه شهری، شهرهای جدید، رشد هوشمند، الگوی فضایی شهر، مدل SLEUTH
صفحات 271-289تالاب بین المللی زریوار یکی از پهنه های آبی مهم استان کردستان محسوب می شود که به دلیل تنوع زیستی بالا، صید ماهی، تامین آب کشاورزی، چشم انداز های طبیعی و جاذبه ی بالای گردشگری دارای اهمیت خاصی است. در سال های اخیر گزارش های مبنی بر رسوب گذاری زیاد و کاهش آبدهی چشمه های کف تالاب منشر شده است که اهمیت عمق سنجی مداوم این پهنه آبی را هر چه بیش تر نمایان می نماید. از آن جایی که عمق سنجی با روش های مستقیم بسیار پرهزینه و زمان بر است، لذا استفاده از علوم جدید مانند سنجش از دور و مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی می تواند مفید و موثر باشد. در این راستا تعداد 200 بار عمق سنجی و ثبت مختصات جغرافیایی محل هم زمان با عبور ماهواره لندست 8 در چهار دوره زمانی شامل تابستان و پائیز سال 1392 و بهار و تابستان سال 1393 صورت گرفت. پس از تصحیح اتمسفری نوارهای سنجنده OLI ماهواره لندست 8، نوارهای مرئی و همچنین نتایجترکیب های مختلف حاصل از ترکیب نوار مرئی، نوارهای مادون قرمز نزدیک و میانی این سنجنده مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. عمق آب به وسیله مدل سازی شبکه عصبی مصنوعی با استفاده از میزان بازتاب های طیفی و نتایجشاخص های مختلف متناطر با عمق های اندازه گیری شده در یک برآورد کلی (داده های فصل تابستان و پاییز سال 1392 و بهار سال 1393) و یک برآورد تک فصلی (داده های فصل تابستان سال 1393) به دست آمد. نتایج نشان داد که از بین نوارهای آبی، سبز، قرمز و مادون قرمز بازتاب طیفی نوار قرمز (نوار 4) با 82/0 R2= و 0269/0 RMSE= در برآورد با استفاده از داده کلی (3 ماهه) و 95/0 R2= و 0230/0 RMSE= در برآورد با استفاده از داده یک ماهه در مرحله تست بیش ترین همبستگی را با میزان عمق آب داشت. از بین ترکیب های ایجاد شده نیز نتایج ترکیب (band4-band2)/(band4+band2) با 92/0 R2= و 0203/0 RMSE= در برآورد با استفاده از داده کلی و 97/0 R2= و 0301/0 RMSE= در برآورد با استفاده از داده یک ماهه در مرحله تست بیش ترین همبستگی را با میزان عمق آب داشت.کلیدواژگان: لندست 8، سنجنده OLI، بازتاب طیفی، باندهای مریی، مادون قرمز
صفحات 291-312آغاز روند سریع شهرنشینی از میانه های قرن بیستم در کشورهای جهان سوم از جمله کشور ایران موجب از هم گسیختگی ساختار کالبدی شهرها گردید. به طوری که ساختار محله بندی شهرها را که بر پایه مقیاس انسانی طراحی شده بود از هم فرو پاشید. از این رو شهرهای امروزی با توجه به پیشینه تاریخی از ساختار کالبدی منسجمی برخوردار نیستند و در روند توسعه خود بافت های ناهمگونی را تجربه کردند. پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارزیابی نقش ساختار کالبدی-فضایی در عملکرد مطلوب محله ای در بافت های سنتی، مدرن و خودرو شهر تبریز و شناسایی متغییرهای تاثیرگذار کالبدی محله ای (1393) صورت گرفته است. روش تحقیق پیمایشی-تحلیلی بوده که داده های مورد نیاز را با استفاده از پرسشنامه جمع آوری و با آزمون-هایی مورد تجزیه وتحلیل قرار داده است. بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده، در مجموع بین ابعاد شش گانه ساختارکالبدی-فضایی و عملکرد مطلوب محله ای، در محلات بافت های سنتی نسبت به محلات بافت های مدرن و خودرو همبستگی بالایی وجود دارد؛ اما براساس تحلیل رگرسیونی روش همزمان (ENTER) میزان تاثیرگذاری ابعاد شش گانه ساختار کالبدی-فضایی در محلات بافت های سه گانه در مطلوبیت عملکردی تفاوت وجود دارد. در محلات سنتی بعد دسترس پذیری با 488/0، در محلات مدرن بعد فشردگی با 492/0 و در محلات خودرو بعد مقیاس با 424/0 ضریب بتا بیش ترین تاثیرگذاری را در مطلوبیت عملکرد محله ای دارند.کلیدواژگان: ساختار کالبدی، فضایی، نوشهرگرایی، عملکرد محله ای، کلان شهر تبریز
Priority Assessment Application of Non-Euclidean Theory from John Freidman Criteria in Urban Planning Process in IranPages 1-21IntroductionThe issue of city planning has been known as the most challenging field and activitis for policymakers and city officials due to the citie's numerous constanly changing problems and complecities in the era of globalization. Therefore, having a dynamic, collaborative and felixible approaches can envisage an efficient planning and management for the cities. Considering the fact that city planning system in our country follows centralized, comprehensive and "up-down" procedures, it is essential to have a collaborative, flexible and "bottom-up" approach in order to encounter the urban problems and complexities in a continuous, efficient and process-based manner. Accordingly, based on the specified criteria of John Friedman's non-Euclidean planning theory and its theoretical framework, which is known as collaborative and decentralized approach in urban planning process, it can be useful to apply it in urban planning of our country. Consequently, the present study is an attempt to evaluate and analyze the metric priorities of John Friedman's non-Euclidean approach in the process of urban planning in Iran.Materials And MethodsThis "descriptive - analytical" study was conducted to evaluate the priorities of applying the criteria of John Friedman's non-Euclidean planning theory in Iran's urban planning. To collect descriptive information, library-based documents and studies were used; and a survey including the views of 30 experts in the field of urban planning was administred to collect analytical data . Then, FDAHP model was used to analyze the data. In this study, to evaluate Freidman's non-Euclidean planning theory 5 criteria and 21 sub-criteria were used.DiscussionThe 5 criteria in John Friedman's non-Euclidean planning, normative approach, innovative approach, political approach, interaction oriented approach and social learning-based approach, in conjunction with 21 sub criteria as well as using expert's views in the first stage showed that interaction oriented approach, obtaining 0. 4452 final non fuzzy weight, had the highest priority among the mentioned criteria for applying the urban planning system and infrastructure in Iran. The evaluation of the sub-criteria also indicated the following priority of sub criteria of interaction oriented approach. That is the process which refers to participating, creating correlation and overcoming the the domination and centralization in decision-making and decision-taking process.ResultToday, cities are the most significant places for illustrating the mankind's civilization and progress which implies major transformations and a variety of positive and negative changes in its environment and even beyond it. Regarding these issues, the complexity and dynamics of urban issues along with the progress made in these places, it is obvious and necessary to have a dynamic and flexible city planning against specific issues in the cities. Due to the problems and shortcomings of urban planning process in Iran, We tried to apply the priority criteria for the assessment of John Friedmann's non-Euclidean planning for being implemented in urban planning in Iran. To do so, the views of 30 experts were surveyed, and by using of FAHP model, the result showed that interaction oriented criteria approach is more prioritiezed to to be implemented in urban planning and infrastructure conditions in Iran. This issued was even confirmed by the sub criteria which can be very useful in participatory process of urban planning.
Investigation of Tourism Development Barriers in Rural Regions of Oskou County (Case Study: Agh Gonbad Village)Pages 23-37IntroductionThe main source of income of rural households in developing countries comes from agriculture and this sector has an important role in providing food security villages and cities; However, the agricultural sector alone cannot create sufficient job opportunities for the rural population is increasing and it is necessary that activities other crops such as rural tourism, industry and services is completed. Accordingly, the highly motivated rural development policy for the balanced development of non-agricultural activities and rural tourism headed by removing barriers to its development to achieve sustainable development has been created. At present age, tourism and the tourism economy have become one of the fastest growing industries in the world and a tool for national income and of the main pillars of the global economy and the concepts, shapes and pillars of sustainable development as well.Materials And MethodsOskou County is located in East Azerbaijan province and encompasses an area of 59/1762 square kilometers of the total areas of province. The County is about 20 kilometers away from the city center. The research method of the study was quantitative, non-experimental and field research in terms of the nature, rate and degree of control and method of data collection, respectively. The statistical population of the study consisted of 759 villagers of Agh Gonbad village (N= 759). According to Krejcie and Morgan table, 240 persons of them were selected by Simple Random Sampling for doing the study (n=240). A questionnaire was used to collect the data which consisted of two parts including respondents profile and respondents viewpoints about the importance of each of the barriers to development of rural tourism. A five-point scale (1 = very low and 5 = very high) was used to measure the second part. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by a panel of experts. A pilot study was conducted to establish reliability of the instrument. Cronbach alpha's coefficients for main scales of questionnaire including respondents viewpoints about the importance of barriers to development of rural tourism was higher than 0.75. Collected data were analyzed using the SPSS software. Descriptive statistics (including frequency, percentage and mean) and inferential statistics (including factor analysis) were used for data analysis.Results And DiscussionAccording to the results, the majority of the respondents (86.7%) were male and only 13.3% were female. The average age of the respondents was about 66.9 years, ranging from 21 to 70 years. The results revealed that the majority of respondents (40%) were diploma. To determine the appropriateness of data and to measure the homogeneity of the variables on barriers to development of rural tourism, Kaiser- Meyer- Olkin (KMO) and Bartletts test were applied. KMO and Bartletts test results obtained for these variables showed that the data were appropriate for the factor analysis. The Kaiser Criterion also was employed to arrive at a specific number of factors for extraction. Based on this criterion, only those factors with eigenvalues greater than one were retained. The results of factor analysis revealed that three factors can be considered as important for identifying and explaining the barriers to development of rural tourism in Agh Gonbad village and these factors were infrastructure-welfare, socio-cultural and organizational- structural. In total, these factors explained 60.56% of the total variance of development of rural tourism.ConclusionAs the results show, the infrastructure-welfare factor had the first priority and constituted a high portion of the variance. Therefore, providing the necessary equipment and infrastructure particularly roads, restaurants and hotel is the first step to development of rural tourism.
Pages 39-56IntroductionKarst or solution landforms are of great importance from different aspects. These landforms are in almost all geographic areas and have a great variety. The development of karst terrain depends on several factors such as: lithology, topography, climate, hydrology, vegetation, structure and time. Alborz mountains is one of the big areas of karst in north of Iran. Karstification in northern and southern slopes of the Alborz are different. Dorfak Mountain, a part of the western Alborz Mountains, situated in coordinates 53° 3' north latitude and 42° 49' east longitude, in the southern part of Guilan province. Dorfak is the most important part of western Alborz Mountain which has not only immense environmental values but is a subject of interest for geomorphologists for its karstic landforms. This paper aims at describing Dorfak's physical geography and geology and to investigate its karstic landforms on the basis of such a description emanated from field-work studies. Material andMethodsIn order to identify karstic landforms of Dorfak mountain, preliminary studies and field works, topographic maps with a scales of 1:25,000, 1: 50,000 and geological maps with a scale of 1:100000 were used. In early reviews and inventories of karstic landforms, four times the northern and southern slopes of Dorfak, field visit of different routes using the global positioning system were done. Then, coordinate of identified karstic sites overlay on digital topographic and geological maps and spatial relationships between geology, topography, and karstic sites, were analyzed. According to the importance of climate data in formation of karst landforms, rainfall data was examined. Finally, the field works data was combined with geology and topography maps and geomorphological map of Dorfak karstic landforms was drawn.Results And DiscussionsIntensity, extent, degree of development of karst landforms according to the thickness and the purity of lime and spatial differences in climatic conditions different.The northern slopes of Dorfak Mountain to about 2000 m, wet and temperate climate with abundant rains, and from there to the summit, cold mountain climate with low rainfall prevails. In each of these areas, specific mechanisms of weathering and erosion take place. Due to these differences, Dorfak karst landforms can be divided into two groups:
Karstic landforms in forest area
In northern slope of Dorfak, green dolines and karren (Lapias) are covered by soil and plants. Above the tree line, karstic landforms include two huge Dolines, many little dolines, and ponors. Among all these varieties, karrens are noticeable in terms of numbers and extensions. Karren depths are approximately 10-15 cm.
Karstic landforms in non vegetation area
In Dorfak mountain, altitudes more than 2,200 meters are lacking forest vegetations. Great doline(kaseye Dorfak), is the most characteristic karstic landforms in this part of Dorfak Mountain. Floor of doline is covered by fine sediments, thus, in the spring and summer season, shaped lake in doline. Another karstic landforms in this area is Dorfak small karstic cave. Dorfak mountain slopes to the summit, especially after the forest limit, are covered by karrens with different sizes and shapes. Linear karrens and karren fields can be seen in these slopes.ConclusionAccording to the evidence and degree of development of karstic landforms, Dorfak karstic landforms are one of the most complete in the western Alborz, from Sepidrud valley to Chalus River. Pure limestone formations such as gray limestone of fossiliferous Jurassic, Cretaceous gray limestone of orbitolina and the northern and southern Dorfak trust, have provided infiltration in rocky limes. At elevations less than 2,200 meters, limits in the development of karst forms are due to changes in gross limestone or other formations. In southern slopes and higher parts of Dorfak mountain, several small canyons, Rashe karstic cave around the Seedasht village and a great canyon were formed respectively.
Due to the importance of karst landforms such as the pursuit of water resources, all identified landforms, geomorphological map of Dorfak mountain was provided.
Analitical Evaluation of Urban Spatio-physical Expansion and its Effects Over Land use Changes Based on GIS and RS (The Case of Shiraz between 1987-2013)Pages 57-76IntroductionNowadays Physical and unplanned expansion of cities, especially in developing countries as one of the problems and challenges facing governments and planners are raised. This growth is the result of economic growth, rural-urban migration problems and risks with environmental, economic and social changes have brought about. The loss of green spaces, gardens and agricultural lands, rapid changes in land uses, pollution of air, soil and water resources, pressure on ecosystems and the environment, including the most obvious and most important problems of growth and physical development of cities. Growth and development of not only damage the surrounding areas, but also disqualifies the city from its symmetrical shape. Conflict between residents in the amount of land cultivated areas around the city and residents of urban areas of obvious result of this problem. On the other hand uneven development and the increased spread of cities, including problems of modern cities in the field of integrated management it provides. Urban sprawl (horizontal distribution) is the term used in the past half-century texts in terms of urban studies (spiral) is entered, and today most central issue in developed countries is urban seminars.
The history of the use of the term dates back to the mid-twentieth century, when the automobile as a result of over-exploitation and development of highways, development of urban spaces flourished in the United States. The term is meant sprawl or horizontal distribution areas of rapid growth and spread of large cities and even small towns, which in some cases has been extended to rural areas.
Growing population in cities is one of the inevitable; the populations in need of urban spaces that result in big cities have been faced with space constraints. Nowadays the city of cities can be found that is not involved with the problems of physical development. Non principles of land use, particularly in urban areas are one of the problems in Iran. As the most important population centers and metropolitan city of Shiraz in southern Iran in recent years has led to the uncontrolled growth of urban; Orchards and farmland land use around Shiraz in this many decades have changed and resulted in the growth of the city. The end result is ecological imbalance.
Pourmohammadi and others (2009), in an article entitled "Assessing the physical space of the city with an emphasis on changes in land use during 1977- 2006; A framework for mapping and analyzing the predictable patterns of urban growth in the scale of the space - frame using linear regression models were developed cross-tab. The results show that the correlation between the severity, extent and mechanism conversion and land use changes as a result of Zanjan and visualize the spatial expansion - is physical.
Shyrklayy,AJob (2009), in their study titled "Assessment of city development and the impact of land use changes on the southern shores of the Caspian Sea using GIS Case study: Chalus-light axis between the years (1989 to 2007)".This study show that in these period urban sprawl phenomena are growing very fast and in a uncontrolled processing.Materials And MethodsThe descriptive and analytical method is used in this study. In this paper, the land use changes during 1366-1392 was assessed analytically by the use of Landsat 8 and 5 Multi temporal satellite pictures and also by process techniques of satellite pictures with emphasis on physical and spatial expansion of Shiraz. And by the use of predicting techniques of land use changes like consolidated method of automatic cells and Markov chain, the Probable expansion trend of Shiraz Township until 1402 was predicted.ResultsShiraz Township as the most populated city in the south of Iran in the recent years has faced with unbalanced growth. The results of this research showed that land use area of Shiraz has increased from 7327 acres in 1366 to 19451.61 acres in 1392. The results of Shannon entropy and... .
Conclusion and Implications: Heldern models showed that the entropy amount of Shiraz in 1366 was 2.4777, while the amount of Ln (9) was 2.1972. This amount was 2.6957 in 1392. According to Markov chain- automatic cells model, land use would be increased about 23096.61 acres in 1402, that in comparison with 1392 will increase about 3645 acres. The results of this paper showed that the spatial-skeletal expansion of Shiraz is mostly in South East- North West directions.
Pages 77-96IntroductionOne of the critical stages in the management of rivers, is flood zoning. One of the newest methods to delineate flood mapping, was done by geographic information system and combining it with hydraulic models. Zoning maps of the flood could be used to determine the buffer of the bed and rivers, economic feasibility study of development plans, forecasting and flood warning, rescue operations and flood insurance. HEC-RAS software can be used for routing of rivers respectively. This application will enable users to perform hydraulic calculations or simulating river flow in steady and unsteady conditions. The aim of this study was to flood risk mapping delineate in Manshad watershed (one of the Miankouh sub basin in the province of Yazd) that in comparison with other neighboring sub basin with more flooding potential.Materials And MethodsIn the study Floodplainsns of any river, the first step is providing digital map of the area for river simulation and surrounding lands. Step 2, geometry river simulating by HEC-GeoRAS extension in ArcGIS and creating the necessary information layers. Step 3, transferring data produced to HEC-RAS software. Step 4, complete geometry and bringing them into the river model. In stage 5, the output is returned to the ArcGIS and flood zones are displayed with different return periods. The results of the simulation of river cross sections, longitudinal profile, view three-dimensional flow hydraulic parameter table along the river cross sections and diagrams hydraulic parameters, the HEC-RAS software Output can be displayed. In the event that this information is transferred in ArcGIS environment, using GIS analysis functions such as the ability to view the final results for the Flooded for return period different level, height and water depth anywhere in the floodplain provides.
Determination of momentary Maximum discharge with different return period:SMADA software using Pearson Type III distribution was identified as the most suitable.
Land use map Extraction for the study area
land use types were identified based on visual interpretation of satellite images of Google Earth and field operations. Then, in the GIS, area per units was determined.
Calculation of water surface profile
The HEC-RAS software using stepwise relationship between energy and the use of the standard water surface profile is calculated. Subcritical flow during the first solution in the downstream section starts. The water level was determined in the downstream section of the boundary. Therefore, the aim was to determine the water level in the upstream cross section.
Determine the flood zone
Flood zones is calculated for water surface elevation by HEC-RAS model and is shown in cross section. The levels of water is prepared in each cross section by the preprocessor macros in HEC-GeoRAS, and is prepared a TIN file as base of geometric characteristics. In general, the river bed and floods buffers are designed with different return period.
Mapping of the flood plain zone
At this stage, the water levels was determined for each cross-section on river plan. Then, according to the slope of the river at any reach, the water level was determined and was transferred on maps. Finally, with regard to the level of the flood water level of the river flow zones were determined with different return periods. Then the flood zones of flood were drawn with different return periods and the area of each Zones was calculated using the software.DiscussionIn most sections of the river, the river flooded because of water passing through the spillway is an overflow height is more than compensated for this deficiency occurs in the upstream and increases the surrounding Flooding area. However, in these areas, houses, roads, facilities and farms located near the river and up the river, inflicted much damage to the treated areas. Flood discharge and flood zones were increased by inappropriate location of land use such as moving forward of agricultural land toward river buffer. According to investigations, longer return periods produce higher discharges and inundation flood zones have more expansion. Between the factors the topographical characteristics is more important. Wherever the waterways increased width increased flood level and the water level had a broader expansion. On the contrary, wherever with narrow valley flood levels reduced to the width and depth of flooding has increased in parallel. In fact, low flood level was occurred in many sectors because of steep topography in buffer of the main river.
The results of the study is Correspond with the results of other researchers, including the Tate and Etal (2002), Sadeqi, Jalali Rad (2004), Hossein Zadeh (1384), Vahabi (1376) and Safari (1380).ConclusionManshad is in mountainous watershed and areas of agricultural lands and orchards are at risk of flooding in high return periods due to the steep slopes of the riverbank. Thus, farmlands and garden forwarding toward the river buffer, causing increased damage and inundation zones were increased. The flood zone area in this study is calculated 9.8 km2 that the largest area related to agriculture and horticulture land uses. Rising the water levels as much as 5 m, are affected 96.1 hectares of land by the flooding.
Pages 97-121IntroductionOne of the important results of modern urbanization, the emergence and spread of vulnerable neighborhoods in the text or margins of towns. Usually residents of these units considered the informal residents who live in cities but the reasons have not been able to absorb of the economic-social systems and a citizen and enjoy the facilities and utilities. The lack of logic dealing with the reality of achieving sustainable urban development poses a major challenge. By reducing the general level of people's lives, especially in urban communities during the past two decades by the UN's approach to urban sustainability was introduced. The task of sustainable development, reduction of unemployment, poverty and the dysfunction. Excessive expansion of Mahabad with severe immigration, demographic and physical changes have been inappropriate. The formation of community-based social segregation and replacement of low-income classes in marginal and old neighborhoods, disparities between neighborhoods and public facilities in the enjoyment of sustainability indicators and problems of social and spatial segregation, the city's stability is threatened. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to assess and analyze the level sustainability and unsustainability in urban the informal settlements in Mahabad and effort to provide solutions for their organization.
Matherials andMethodsThe research method of present study was descriptive - analytical and data collection was survay and documentary. The sample size of 328 is obtained by the Cochrane formula and the method of distribution questionnaires and has been to a random sample and analyzed with SPSS software. Then determine the variables in each of the three components of "social - cultural", "economic" and "environmental" sustainability, such as the quality and age of building, type of durable materials, per capita land use, slope, percent literacy, number of households, dimension of households, leisure, families take advantage of opportunities, unemployment, occupation, load Dependents -income households in informal neighborhoods were analyzed separately. As the questionnaire is provided on the basis of factors identified in the research and the expert's view, therefore, the validity is confirmed automatically. Also, it is used to determine the reliability statistics Cronbach's alpha. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0/76, which indicates acceptable reliability. In this research, Softwares of Word and excel is used.Results And DiscussionStability Analysis marginalized neighborhoods in the city of Mahabad in terms of the physical body and four indicators of the slope, per capita land, building age and type of material and the quality and durability, these results that in terms of the slope with the neighborhood WEST Karmandan which is on the down slope conditions are more favorable. While 9 neighborhood slope conditions better than 10 percent and not suitable conditions. This neighborhoods In terms of per capita urban area than the city of Mahabad and standards are low. Sanjan Abad neighborhood with maximum acceptable buildings is quality good buildings while the neighborhood POSHTAP; with the 5/36 destruction of the building is unstable situation. In the the neighborhoods of Koye Koye Daneshgah and Sanjan Abad of brick and iron materials used in buildings with 98.9 and 97.5 respectively more than other communities And In the general stability of the two neighborhoods in the type and quality of materials and withstand disasters is better.
To evaluate the stability of marginalized communities in Mahabad in terms of socio-cultural status indicators of literacy, the number and size of household, leisure and percentage of households benefit from the facilities were used. The total literacy rate in the neighborhoods of Sanjan Abad (83.7%) and Daneshgh (83.1%) than in other neighborhoods. In front of neighborhoods of Bghe Shayegan (7/72) and e Ashabhe (6/73) have lower literacy rates. Also female literacy rate as one of the important indicators of socio-cultural stability in the neighborhoods of Koye Daneshgah (79.3%) and Sanjan Abad (76.7%) than in other communities. 44% of residents of informal settlements of Mahabad city have stated that no such thing as leisure time and indicates that the socio-cultural sustainability of communities is low. A variety of leisure activities in the areas is very limited. In general, West Karmandan and Sanjan Abad neighborhood conditions are more favorable in terms of having the facilities and against neighborhoods Poshtap and Kani Sofi Taha terms of facilities have the undesirable situation. In the overall impact of all economic indicators showed that the neighborhoods Sanjan Abad in economic terms are better than in other areas and against Bghe Shayegan neighborhood is economically undesirable conditions. This neighborhood with 16 percent unemployment and Burden dependent 4.7 people in the lowest economic situation. In fact, the lack of human and social capital formation In the these areas and costs resulting from the lack of physical and mental health, negative effect on other urban areas will follow.ConclusionsThe results show that, the sustainability is very low in all selected variables.But in general, the neighborhoods Senjen Abad, Koye Daneshgah and Shahrak Karmandan Gharbi to have more favorable conditions and terms of sustainability indicators than most other neighborhoods.In front of neighborhoods Posht Tap, Bghe Shayegan and Kani Sofi Taha the situation was less favorable and are a more diprived.The our findings appear to be the most important operational Strategy to reduce and moderating informal settlements in the city of Mahabad by using of strategies for organizing and enabling these neighborhoods at the national levels national, reginal and local is coordinated.
Suggestions to improve the informal neighborhoods of the Mahabad city are as follows:- Encouraging and guiding residents to participate in all stages of decision-making, planning and environmental sanitation projects;
- Low-interest loans in order to provide jobs and living facilities, housing and employment based on the individual; also the identification of households without any type of insurance covered the families;
- Improving urban land use per capita in urban areas by increasing per capita In the culture, education and trade with government support and public participation;
- Active neighborhood centers (retail and street vending organized small-scale plus service locations) along with job creation; - Creation of recreational facilities in communities and social programs in order to identify ways of spending leisure time of youth, women and men through a small useless dead spaces within the neighborhood green spaces and places to pause and hesitate to use residents and pedestrians;
- Planning for the problem of disposal of surface water and cover channels.
Pages 123-150IntroductionThe reduction of river flows can be related to several natural and human factors. The reduction of entrance discharge to Urmia lake has significant rate on the reduction of the lake water level. The purpose of this research at the first step is to investigate the effect of climatic parameters such as precipitation and temperature and at the second step, to investigate the effect of human factors on the reduction of river flow of basins Sufichay and Mrdqchay located in the southeast of Urmia Lake.
Matherials andMethodsClimate and hydrological change trend were evaluated by Mann- Kendall classic and Modified methods. Then status of weather drought by SPI index and status basins hydrological drought was studied by SDI index in the time periods 3 and 12 monthly and the correlation of two droughts were examined by using Pearson correlation test. The status of vegetation by NDVI index and the status of soil moisture was studied by changing tasseled cap at past and present. Finally the discharge of rivers basin were compared at before and after dam construction and discharge of downstream of Alavian dam with precipitation elements.Results And DiscussionThe results show that both of the average and maximum discharge is reducing in the area during the statistical period. On trending of temperature and precipitation data both Kendall and Sen's estimator methods have The same results and many of data had non-significant trend and only a small percentage of data was significant. On The other side, from this low percentage the trend type on the precipitation data was different. However the temperature significance trend shows a rise on temperature. In examining meteorological and hydrological droughts the characteristics of o basins, SPI and SDI index have showed that both study scales indicate, two long periods of droughts during the same period and there was a significant relationship between two droughts. This relationship was for simultaneous 1 to 6 monthly delays. In the appraisal of the relation of vegetation status and soil moisture of basins in 1985 and 2006 the space of vegetation area has increased in both basins in 2006. The soil moisture has increased because of more absorption of rain water by the plants. The average comparison of discharge of Sufichay and Mrdqchay basins showed however that the discharge of two basins has declined after dam construction but the discharge of dam downstream shows more reductive variation. The multiple regression model also showed a strong correlation between basins downstream discharge with dam however, the correlation of discharge with precipitation had been non-significant.
The Investigation of Housing Pattern Changes Effect on Village-towns (Case Study: Village-town of Mohammad Abad of Zabol City)Pages 151-172IntroductionHousing is considered as one of the smallest parts of the settlements. It can be a simple windward, an alcove or a simple cottage. Housing is initiated into human needs and can be considered as one of the geographical phenomena of a region (Bashiri et al., 2000: 2). In other words, housing is a capital goods and a social value, which can decrease social hurts and make sustainability of a society (Dix, 1985, 1-10).
Therefore, changing of building pattern and structure of housings is affected by international issues and phenomena, changing in customs and life styles of the residents. Thus, in different periods of history evolution of human society, household structure evolution, emergence of complicated human societies in form village and city and other evolution of man has inevitably created new housings patterns as a result of technology development, population growth, moral and intellectual development and also emergence of faithfulness and semantic (Fazeli, 1386, 33). In fact, before changing of new methods of housing building, rural housings have been a symbol of vital and living of rural residents and, effective environmental factors and forces and also effective social-economic trends have been formed their structures (Motiyi, 1382, 100).
Based on above description, an important question arise: what changes do we see in housing structure patterns and what are its consequence?
Therefore, the present study is aimed at analyzing negative and positive effects of housing changing patterns to focus on solidification and aesthetic aspects in housing building according to climatic conditions as previous.
Matherials andMethodsThe methodology of the present study is descriptive-analytical, which contain two main parts. The superficial and content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by related experts. Its reliability also was calculated by Chronbakh Alpha (0.79). The population includes all of rural-urban households of Mohammadabad. Based on the survey of 2011, this region households have been around 3444. Sampling was done by Cochran method, which was calculated 348 households at confidence level of 95 percent. In the next step, collected data were analyzed by using SPSS software and Pearson, Chi-Square and Wilcoxon tests to answer the research questions.Results And DiscussionTo test the first hypothesis of the research (there is a significance relationship between lack of recreational, conveniences spaces and tendency to changes in local housing structure) Chi-Square test was used. The main variable of this hypothesis is lack of facilities, which was calculated by compartment such as enjoyment of bathroom, parking, bedroom, lack of sufficient light, large area of yard and area of building. Average of lack of conveniences spaces includes: enjoyment of bathroom 2.98%, parking 2.87, bedroom 3.16, lack of sufficient light 3.26, large area of yard and lack of building area was calculated around 2.76. According to calculated average we can conclude that the region suffer more than average from lack of conveniences spaces. So, these lacks is a sign of local people tendency to new patterns of housing. In addition, the results of Chi-Square (significance level of less than 0.05) indicates that local people suffer from lack of all indices.
To test the second hypothesis of the research (there is a relationship between the quality of materials used in rural housings before and after changing into city-village), Wilcoxon test was used, due to its capability in testing of difference among orders. The results of this test indicate that 301 person (86.5%) of respondents answered that the quality of buildings and the materials of the building has improved after changing the housing structure patterns. 3 persons (0.86%) of respondents answered that the situation of building quality and building materials was equal after and before of changing housing structure patterns. So, almost all of the respondents (86.5%) maintain that changing of housing structure patterns has affected on improvement of buildings quality and their housing materials. The Z statistics with a score of -7.312 and significant level of 0.000 confirm this matter. Based on this result, research hypothesis was confirmed.
To test third hypothesis of the research (the situation of energy maintenance in the building and texture of housing new patterns in rural-urban region of Mohammad Abad was different than past), variables such as oil consumption, number of gas capsule used in a month, usage of electricity per household and usage of water per household were used. Based on the research results, in old housings, average of used capsule was 2.3 each month. In new housings it has increased to 3.45 capsule. In addition, amount of oil consumption in old housings was 2.1 barrel, which has increased to 3.65 barrel.
Furthermore, air conditioner in old housing at hot seasons was active an average of 10.14 hours and maximum of 21 hours. At cold seasons, hot system was active an average of 9.76 hours and maximum of 19 hours. In new housing, in hot seasons this amount was an average of around 14.53 hours and maximum of 22 hours. In cold seasons, hot system was active an average of 13.09 hours and maximum of 21 hours. For testing research hypothesis, Pearson test was used. The results of this test indicate that H0 (there is a significant relationship between changing of housing structure pattern and region climate conditions) is rejected (Pearson Correlation of 0.601 and significance level of 0.05). In other side, the opposite hypothesis (there isnt a significant relationship between changing of housing structure pattern and region climate conditions) is confirmed.ConclusionsEvery geographical region has a special climatic conditions, which can distinguish that region to others. So, in any region, housing structure is necessitated in its special pattern. So, copying of patterns from other regions can increase usage of non-renewable energies, which can make environmental pollutions and en extra economic burden. In addition, consistency of housing with environmental conditions can make convenience for local people. If in the region of Mohammad Abad, old housings structure was based on the culture, tradition and local people economic, it would decrease energy usage dramatically for heating and cooling of building space. Gradually, housing structure improved and it decreased solidity and beauty of new housings. In other side, inconsistency of used materials to climatic conditions can increase energy usage for heating and cooling and also increasing of energy for producing new materials, which can pollute environment at the phase of building.
Pages 173-192IntroductionIn the third world countries, the phenomenon of rural-urban migration has become a social problem. Structural weakness in the villages to the towns attractions and glamor makes the villagers to get rid of their home to go to the cities. Lack of facilities in rural areas has caused young people to achieve a decent job with stable income and business development opportunities to go to the cities and the key to success is to search somewhere other than their home village. Following this, there have been fundamental changes in the age and sex structure of villages. Aging rural population in Ahar township has caused rural-urban migration of youth. Undoubtedly, the consequences of such actions for the origin and destination risks leads to. Hence, the present study aimed to identify the factors affecting tendency of rural youth of Ahar township to migrate to city and the applied purpose was reached. In order to achieve the desired aim, empirical and theoretical background in the field of study and work on the theoretical framework of the theories of migration research were used by Ravenstein and Todaro, pull-push theory and the theory of relative deprivation is formed. Thus, based on theoretical basis hypothesis was developed.Matherials and MethodsMethodology of this study, was based on cross-sectional survey method.Using multi-stage cluster sampling, 21 villages on the basis of geographical location, distances from city, population and emigration status were chosen. 15-30 year-old youth in villages of Ahar who lived at the time of the study in selected villages, form the study population. Using random sampling method, 500 young people, were selected for study. The information they need using the questionnaire and in both micro and macro levels have been collected. Data analysis was done using SPSS and HLM. Research hypotheses were tested using Chi-square, T-test, Kendalls Tau-b and Pearson tests. The multilevel modeling (HLM) was conducted in order to examine the influence of individual variables from structural variables.ConclusionThe results indicate that between the individual and structural factors in rural areas and the tendency to migration, there is a statistically significant relationship. According to the results, the economic situation of the family, the attitude to origin push, the attitude to destination pull, the population living in villages and rural distance from the city, are effective on the rural youth tendency to migrate to cities. Conterary to popular perception, factors of attitude to rural push compared to urban push attitude factors, have more influence on the trend of rural-urban migration of youth. According to Lees theory, factors of that are associated with the origin of most of the relevant factors destination and according to the Todaro theory in tendency to migration of rural youth, the importance of apparent differences between urban and rural income likely to lead to a job in the city. This kind of attitude in villages that are located further from the city, is striking. On the other hand, by reducing the distance of the village from the city, the positive impact of attitude on the city pull to rural youth tends to migration is decreased. In other words, the villages that have less distance from the city and more populated areas have been far less than urban pull. This kind of attitude to urban pull, show significant negative impact on the increasing trend of migration from rural to urban areas. In total, the highest percentage of changes in the trend of migration of rural youth to cities, are defined by two variables of village population and village distance of the city and show that structural factors are more important in this regard.
Since the migration of young leading to the evacuation of villages from active youth and causing older age composition have been studied, therefore, the poverty elimination of thin and remote rural areas is one of the most important agendas of the custodians of rural development in Ahar township. Investment in housing, youth employment, bridging the gap between urban and rural incomes, includ those who may be controled inappropriate migration of youth to city. This can be provided regarding maintaining youth in rural areas and the many issues stemming from migration in both origin and destination stop.
Pages 193-208IntroductionClimate is a complex system which is changing mainly due to the increase in greenhouse gases. Climate change is slowly expanding across the globe and its impact can be seen on water, agriculture resources and climate parameters in regional scale (Babaian et al., 2009: 136). Climate change is one of the characteristics of the natural cycle of the atmosphere, which is caused by abnormalities and/ or fluctuations in the process of meteorological parameters such as rainfall and temperature. Temperature as important climate variable, causes the most common environmental changes. The effects of temperature changes in the lives of people and other living beings have caused human to face another concern in the real world, which caused a lot of research in this connection in a way that the studies suggest the uniform unchanging temperature in all parts of the world, i.e. the intensity and timing of temperature increase is not the same everywhere (Thuraya et al., 2007). In the world and Iran climatology, numerous studies have been made in the field of climate and its changes in several areas. For example, Lettenmaier et al. (1994, 586-607) in the United States of America, Domonkos and Tar (2003, 131-147) in Hungary, Seleshi and Zanke (2004, 973-983) in Ethiopia, Kumar et al. (2005 , 123-150) in Italy, Qiang et al. (2005, 217-222,) in Egypt, Feriwan Kadioglu (2008, 69-89) in Jordan, Tayanc et al. (2009, 483-502) in Turkey, Mohammadi and Taghavi (2005. 72-115), Azizi and Rowshani (2008, 13-28) in Iran have proven some trends in time series of temperature. In this study, by the using of geo-statistic methods, inter-decadal changes in Iran were reviewed and analyzed.Materials And MethodsTo study the inter-decadal changes of temperature, data resulted from interpolation of daily temperature observations from 663 stations were used in Iran since the beginning of 1961 to December 2004. The data is taken from the Asfezari database. Data spatial resolution of the data is 15 × 15 km, which is written in the picture system of similar conical Lambert. The number of cells across the country is 7187. To enhance the temporal resolution of the data base, daily observations of temperature from 2004 to the end of 2011, using the same method and the same spatial resolution, were interpolated and added to the data base. To analyze the data and to draw maps, programming features of MATLAB software and the GIS software were used, respectively. In order to obtain more detailed information about the temperature of Iran, anomalies and the average (weight average) were studied and analyzed. In the process, the temperature deviations for any climatic normal period happened, using map algebra method. The average of every year in different periods was compared to the average annual values of the same period, and by subtraction of them, related anomalies were calculated. Average distribution is in fact the center of the spatial distribution, which is defined as follows:... .
In order to determine the spatial distribution of pattern as a map, Moran cluster analysis and outlier, which is known as the Anserine Local Moran I, have been used.
Local Moran's I statistic is calculated as follows (Alijani et al. 2013: 8):
Discussion of Results andConclusionsSpatial autocorrelation is one of the most useful and important analys tools for research on spatial data. This analysis not only provides in itself useful information about the interrelated effects, but also the results are used for many more complex statistical analyses.
The results of the spatial distribution of temperature anomalies are shown in this study, in which although the studied in each 5 periods faced concrete changes, the changes are a function of latitude and altitude. Therefore, the center of gravity orientation of temperature in every five periods, which tends to the southeast of the country, confirms the above claim. The results of the analysis of the local Morans I suggests that all five studied periods of coastal shores of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea up to a distance of approximately 200 kilometers from the coast are a high cluster model. While some parts of the northeast of the country, northwest of the country (especially Sahand and Sabalan) and along the Zagros Mountains had a low cluster model, or in other words, had negative spatial autocorrelation. The appearance of cluster with positive correlation in the South Coast, in addition to the impact of the latitude and the exposure of the subtropical high-pressure in this area shows the uniformity of the temperature in this region. As in a cluster a share characteristics of the pixels is required, and due to the heterogeneity of the central regions of the country in terms of altitude, despite the desert areas and high temperatures, these areas are not considered as a part of the cluster with high temperatures. This may be due to temperature differences in desert areas adjacent to moderate temperatures in the high mountains, and cool temperatures. In other words, the existence of maximum temperature in a region in Loot Desert adjacent to areas with relatively cool temperatures at high altitudes cannot lead to the creation of a cluster. The advancement and retreatment of synoptic systems in the general circulation of the atmosphere cause colder or warmer years experience in the country, in a way that the advancement of polar vortex to the north of the country causes cold air in the region, and the sustainability of the system in the country greatly affect the country's average temperature. Thereby, the retreatment of the vortex provides conditions for entrance of the subtropical pressure in the country. The more the system takes the country's total area, the more average high temperature would be recorded for the country. Finally, the temperature differences in the average temperature of any year are visible in the related expansion zone of each cluster.
Reconstructing Maximum and Minimum Seasonal Temperature from Quercus Persica Tree Rings in Zagros Forests (Case Study of Dena Region)Pages 209-227IntroductionKnowledge of past climate for forecasting and planning for future needs long-term and accurate climate data. Researchers have found that over certain protests caused by the climatic factors, the nature of past climate can be realized (Kaviani and Alijani, 1998, p.388). One of such sources is biological evidence. By studying the physical parameters of the tree, climate change during the life of the tree can be reconstructed (loder et al. 2007, Ch.3). Pan et al. (1997) found that a variety of oak species has the value dendroclimatoligical analysis. Extensive studies have been conducted in the world and Iran in connection with the reconstruction of climatic variables using dendroclimatology knowledge. Among such studies one can refer to: Köse et al. (2011), Köse and Güner (2012), Jalilvand and Kazemi (2008), Safari et al (2011), Karamzade et al. (2011), Najafi et al. (2011), Amirchakhmaghi and Sohrabi (2010), Azizi et al (2012), Arsalani et al. (2012), Portahmasebi et al. (2008), Balapour et al (2008) and Soosani et al. (2008). Knowledge of past climate of the biggest habitat of Quercus Persica in Dena region due to the lack of long-term data on climate, poverty of dendroclimatology studies in the region requires an extensive study of past climate parameters and this study is in line with these objectives.Materials And MethodsDena region is 51.12° to 51.88° along the eastern longitude and 30.51° to 31.51° along the north latitude with an area of approximately 4,500 km2 and is located in the central Zagros, parts of Esfahan, Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari, Fars province and Kohkiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province. To reconstruct seasonal maximum and minimum temperature, data of four weather stations of the region, i.e. Yasooj, Pataveh, Dashte Room and Hana were selected in the region and 30-year (1982-2011) data were analyzed. This study is categorized in two sections. First tree rings response to climatic variables was examined and in the second part, the seasonal temperature was reconstructed applying the growth tree rings. With this aim in mind, two dominant sites of Quercus Persica species in region were selected and a total of 36 growth samples in two Southwest and Northeast directions were extracted at breast height of 1.30 m perpendicular to the tree trunk using increment borer at the time of maximum plant growth at growth peak season in summer 2011.After scanning the growth sample, numerating and measuring annual rings were done with an accuracy of 0.01 millimeter by LINTAB5 which is equipped with TSAP software (a new method of reading growth rings) from the skin to the kernel. Time consistency of the two species of each tree and all the trees of the site were performed using TSAP software. The GLK sign test was applied to check synchrony and homogeneity level of the growth trends of trees.
To eliminate non-climate tendencies, growth rings were standardized applying ARSTAN software (Cook, 1985). The residual chronology (RES) was used among the four constructed chronologies (RES, STD, RAW, ARS). For the constructed chronology, mean sensitivity (MS), the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and Expressed Population Signal (EPS) were also calculated. After constructing the appropriate chronology, in calibration stage applying the SAS software and Pearson correlation, the 30-year data (1982-2011) of regional climate stations were used to find the relation between the residual chronology of stations, with maximum average and minimum seasonal temperature of 4 meteorological stations. Then considering the gained results, the maximum and minimum seasonal temperature of the region were constructed applying the growth rings width. Then, the validity of the constructed data was tested using a meteorological station outside the region.
Discussion of Results andConclusionsConsidering the results, it seems that there is a good coordination between growth samples of each tree and all the trees together. This correlation was between the minimum amount of 75.4 and the maximum of 92.6% (75.4
Pages 229-251IntroductionGeographical factors directly create some weather phenomena or indirectly are effective on increasing or decreasing of atmospheric features intensity. One of these geographic factors consists of lakes or small to medium closed water bodies within the continent areas which have various effects on atmospheric conditions of their surrounding areas and have been historically known. Lake effect on climate covers micro to synoptic scale and varies with extent, depth and shape of the lake, speed and direction of winds, winter ice cover and global climate conditions facing the lake. One of the phenomena caused by the lake is the lake snow effect phenomenon. This is one of the reasons for the formation of snow, in addition to mountainous forcing, frontal and convergence activities. Lake snow distribution depends on various elements. The most important climatic factors are the difference between the temperature of lake surface and the temperature of air above it, wind speed and direction, stability, latent heat, and relative humidity. In addition to weather conditions, the geographical conditions of environment such as the extent of ice cover, passing path (fetch) etc. play a major role. Also several case studies have been done about Guilan heavy snows most of which related to synoptic patterns. In this study, we have tried to study the role of Caspian Sea on the heavy snowfall in Guilan plains using atmospheric, marine and land data and to answer the question that whether the mechanism of lake snow effect phenomenon is involved in heavy snowfall of Guilan central plains?Materials And MethodsIn this study, in order to test the occurrence conditions of lake snow effect in the southwest of the Caspian Sea as a well-known phenomenon which has a specific mechanism to heavy snowfall, factors affecting the formation and evolution of atmospheric systems caused heavy snowfall in southern coast of the Caspian Sea were studied for the first time using atmospheric, environmental and marine data. Thus, the research is organized into two main sections:In the first section, in order to study the meso-scale structure of atmospheric circulations and identify of synoptic-dynamic pattern in heavy snowfall hazard event of Guilan plains, the synoptic method of "environment to circulation" is used. To determine the days with heavy snowfall, data of snow height in Rasht meteorological station as the main station were used during (2012-1982). Based on the threshold index and local experiences, reviewing historical sources and long-term statistics and due to the extension of the crisis in society, snow depth of 40 cm in 24 hours was selected as the heavy snowfall. Guilan plain has experienced 7 years with heavy snowfall during the past 30 years. In the next step, in order to synoptic-dynamic study of these identified systems, the daily re-analysis data of sea level pressure and temperature fields, geopotential height, zonal wind vectors and vertical velocity of lower, middle and upper levels of atmosphere were collected from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) on network including Iran, with horizontal resolution of 2.5 degrees. In the second section, the daily data of sea surface temperature (SST) of Caspian Sea were derived from AVHRR sensor of NOAA satellite in 0.25 degrees scale to prove the impacts of the Caspian Sea on the systems and investigation of physical and thermodynamic properties on the intensification of snowfall. Daily and monthly means of SST maps and maps of difference between SST and the 2-meters air temperature and also the sea surface temperature anomalies were produced and examined for these systems using GIS software.DiscussionThe mentioned systems, were classified into two main categories of combined pattern of low pressure and high pressure and high pressure pattern based on the main sources of air mass at the surface which create them. In the next step, these two categories were separated into more distinct categories and studied based on the type of high pressure air masses with different origins such as polar, oceanic and continental, as follows: 1- Combined pattern of low pressure and high pressure (February 2005), 2- high pressure pattern which includes: 2.1- Siberian high pressure pattern (March 1985, January 2001), 2.2- European polar high pressure pattern (southeast of Scandinavia) (February 1993, January 2008), 2.3- migratory high pressures pattern of Europe West (January 1989, February 1982). In total, the high pressure air masses with different origins such as polar, oceanic and continental are exist in all 7 waves of heavy snowfall, which from the higher latitudes, alone or as pairs with lower latitudes low pressures (Mediterranean low pressures) led to heavy snowfall in the southern coast of the Caspian sea with dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms that carry the heat flux and proper humidity. In addition, the mean daily of SST map show the warm area on the southern half of the Caspian Sea surface before snowfall. The high temperature contrast was on the southwest of Caspian Sea because of the transmission and the existence of cold air during the snowfall. In other words, cooling of the air in low troposphere creates temperature difference that cause the interaction between temperature and moisture characteristics of the two fluid and transmission of the surface fluxes to the air masses crossing over it. Despite these differences in the origins of air masses formation, there are some similarities in the mechanism and function of these systems; it seems that the vast water area of the Caspian sea has the significant impact on the transfer of moisture to the passing air and increasing its degree of instability.ConclusionLike the other mid-latitude lakes, location of the Caspian Sea on the poleward face of subtropical high areas has faced it to the cold polar and sub polar air masses. So the environmental conditions have provided a suitable conditions for the formation of lake snow effect phenomenon. The location of southwest coast of the Caspian Sea and the direction of coast line in the Guilan central plain face to the entry of atmospheric systems, flow direction and wind convergence have provided the conditions for the occurrence of this phenomenon and heavy snowfall in the Guilan plains. The shape of Caspian sea and its meridional extension lead to air advection in polar high pressure systems and, which pass fetch about 700 to 1000 km on the Caspian Sea. The fetch of flow over the Caspian Sea is more than all the water bodies in the northern hemisphere. The higher depths of the Caspian sea in the central and southern parts, are prevented from sea freezing in these parts. This issue removes one of the limiting factors in the occurrence of lake snows effect. In addition, the SSTs of southern parts of the Caspian sea are 10.5 and 10 degrees Celsius during the year in January and February, thus the Caspian sea is as a source of heat and moisture for transferring the surface fluxes and instability of air.
In all 7 identified systems, high pressure air masses with strong (1040 hPa) and with various origins such as oceanic or continental aspects play the main role in the mechanism of heavy snowfall. Their clockwise circulation in low troposphere on the Caspian Sea cause to enter of air flow to Guilan plains. Studying the 2- meter temperature and 10-meter wind show the transmission of cold air from higher latitudes to the southern coasts of the Caspian sea and air cooling in the low troposphere during the systems deployment. Daily and monthly mean of sea surface temperature (SST) of Caspian sea indicate the existence of warm water area, according to the maximum specific humidity over the South Caspian. The southward streams cause the advection of moisture to southwestern regions of the Caspian Sea. The difference of 2-meter air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) on the Caspian, indicate the mean temperature contrast about 25 degrees Celsius. Surface fluxes patterns (latent heat flux and sensible heat flux) indicate maximum values of the two physical parameters on the south Caspian areas among the cold air masses from the high-latitudes and warm masses of water which represent the exchange of heat and moisture characteristics in the low troposphere.
Evaluation of Smart Urban Growth Pattern in Iranian Newtown's Point on Sadra Newtown Using SLEUTH ModelPages 253-270IntroductionIn recent years, the irregular and rapid expansion of urban areas with the congestion and excessive of people concentration in the Iranian metropolitan areas has faced the continuation of urban life healthy with the serious risks and challenges in the different aspects. By using this approach, with over of time the cities dont have ability to provide the essential services to their citizens in the spatial and geographical framework and they have to seek the optimal spatial development with an emphasis on the concepts of smart urban growth as a remedy to end the non-development planning of cities. In order to, there were taken different strategies for urban development in the around of the world from 1930- 2016. On the other hand, knowledge about land use ratios in an urban environment and how its changes overtime is one of the main considered issues in the modeling and urban planning. In the meantime, it can be made the anticipate of future changes and take suitable strategies with knowledge about the land use changes in the overtime. It can be concluded that the best vehicle for assessing of urban environment changes in case study region is using of satellite multiple images and Remote sensing technology for extracted of urban land uses especially in new towns. Therefore, the aim of this research is evaluation of smart urban growth pattern using SELUTH model in the Sadra new town as case study region of this research.
Material andMethodsApplied methodology is descriptive- analytical, based on literature review, documentary and model analysis. In the continual of this process, obtained historical data by helping satellite images taken in the different periods of time from Sadra new town were analyzed during three stages (first stage: analysis the historical growth of case study region; second stage: identifying the future development limits Sadra new towns and third stage: considering the favorable and unfavorable spatial distribution). Then, the spatial-physical changes of Sadra new towns was investigated using RS data (multi-temporal Landsat satellite images, TM, ETM and OLI sensors for the years 1989, 1995, 2002 and 2010). In this regard, the first satellite images for different years were obtained from the Geological Survey of America and then for reconstruction, geometric and radiometric correction was transferred to the IDRISI software. were created the False images of 2, 4 and 7 bands using the composite module. Applied variables in this research included slope, transportation system, land use, population explosion, and placement of facilities in certain urban areas such as hillsides and slopes. The value was defined as the amount of 100% for all data and it was predicted to measure the slope of domain specific algorithm. Finally, desirable physical development model was presented using the appropriate and inappropriate measured coefficients in two frameworks of special and historical approach.
Discussions andResultsIn geographical studies, subjective factors of human life experiences are affecting as objective factors. Sadra new town as a settlement unit is influenced by space and behavioral schools whether consciously or unconsciously. Some factors such as land uses, satisfactory, sense of place, human expectations, comfort and security, when existing show that humans use them as premier element space. SLEUTH model is considered as other cover ing models such as (UMG) and (DLM) in urban planning. In SLEUTH model, urban growth is determined according to four performance impacts: the spontaneous development, formation of new areas in the city for new urban cores, distribution of transportation system and the distribution of accelerated communication facilities (such as bridges). used data for import into the model, grading, growth model prediction, presentation of the results stages and images which are transmitted by the Landsat satellite in all forms of MSS, TM, ETM and IRS waves. For the reconstruction and predicted growth of Sadra between the years 1991 to 2011. maps were combine on layers of urban and non-urban areas has made this ability to provide a better model of Sadra new towns movements. After successful completion of data ranking, average values were used to smart urban growth model prediction in the future. This prediction was performed by completely segregated data. The final result has been shown in Fig (1) as follows: It can be said that in one side, the new construction project of Sadra new town and lack of constructions in proportion of people who entered into Sadra and in recent year,s and new Mehr housing project within the framework of Sadra town in other hand to divest the shared houses to deprived groups wich led to the distribution of Sadra new town growth.ConclusionInitially, smart urban growth in the case study region was quite deliberate and controlled. After the transfer of some of facilities to this area by people and governors, the existing lands of Sadar new town began to be occupied by citizens without any planning. Finally, we achieved the followingResults1. From the beginning of Sadra new town the growth has not had a logical planning process;
2. SLEUTH model performance is based on UNIX, DLM and UGM systems. In the framework of these systems, some issues such as urban growth centers and distribution and spatial diffusion phenomena were discussed. While, the presentation of social phenomena distribution was not very common in the context of simulation approaches;
3. SLEUTH smart urban growth model does not pay enough attention to people and social needs in urban planning process.
Survey of Depth Changes of the Zarivar International Wetland Using Remote Sensing and Artificial Neural NetworkPages 271-289IntroductionBathymetry of water is carried out to determine the bed substance, bed morphology, utility of aquatic habitats and other environmental studies. The accurate map of depth is generated based on the ground considerations. Due to problems in the Zarivar international wetland including annual arrival of large quantities of sediment and possibility of depth decrease in the years ahead, using of remote sensing for continuous monitoring of water depth seems necessary and essential. On the other hand, according to the new bands of Landsat 8 regarding different intervals of wavelength, quantization of twelve-bit data, the failure to investigate the potential of these new bands were related to the bathymetry and the availability of these images in comparison to pictures of other satellites, The results of this research in addition to shedding light on the ability of the bands in the field of depth measurement of water resources could also allow continuous monitoring with least cost and provides conditions for an informed managing of Zarivar and other wetlands of the country as well. On this basis, in this study we tried to consider the changes in the depth of international wetland using remote sensing and artificial neural network model to estimate the depth of water in the Zarivar wetland using spectral relation in the visible and infrared bands of Landsat 8 and finally comparing different bands of operational land imager of this satellite in depth estimation.Materials And MethodsZarivar lake depth sampling was calculated simultaneously with Landsat 8 pass on wetland through hours 11:30 to 12:00 in different months during years of 1392 and 1393 in four periods including summer (August) and fall (October) of 1392 and spring (May) and summer (July) of 1393. Regarding the fact that the amount of suspended solids and soluble and phytoplankton concentration in wetland water in various time intervals is varying, and these variations influence the amount of band spectral reflection, In different seasons in the present study artificial neural network modeling was used based on various stages of sampling.Results And DiscussionArtificial neural network modeling is provided using different bands of spectral reflectance corresponding to the sampling points as a practical way to estimate the depth of wetland water. Among the present results of spectral reflectance correlation of four selected bands with water depth, red band with R2=0.82 and RMSE= 0.0262 for estimation using general data (3 months) and with R2=0.95 and RMSE=0.0230 for estimation using one month data suggested better correlation with water depth. The band in 0.630 to 0.680 micrometer of wavelength is located in area of strong chlorophyll absorption and it is able to penetrate and reflect in shallow water. Therefore it seems that red band is the best band for estimation of water depth for water below 6 meter depth. Fard et al (2013) achieved similar results and on the other hand the blue band with R2=0.75 and RMSE= 0.0329 for estimation using general data and with R2=0.76 and RMSE=0.0692 for estimation using one month data suggested the weakest correlation result. The results are also consistent with that of Fard et al (2013). Among the composition used in this study, combined results (band4-band2) / (band4 band2) with R2=0.92 and RMSE= 0.0203 using general data and with R2=97 and RMSE=0.0301 using onemonth data suggested the higher correlation with amount of water depth. Combination of (band4-band2)/(band4涩) is designed based on NDVI combination. In NDVI combination, high vegetation reflectance in the near-infrared band (band 5 OLI sensor of Landsat 8) is reduced from low vegetation reflectivity in red band (band 4) and the result is divided by the sum reflection of both bands.
The Study of the influence of Physical-Spatial Structure on the Desired Performance of neighborhood (The Case Study: Tabriz Metropolitan)Pages 291-312IntroductionIt is certain that in the past the public skeleton and structure of the city was based on the scale of human and activity, movement and service unit. On this basis, some kind of natural hierarchy and harmony had been developed between the structural and social organization of the city and the foundation of social physical organization of the old cities was based on neighborhood system and the hierarchy of its division which organized both the social and economic relationship of the city and the service, communicative and official relationship of the city. Therefore in the old cities, how to use the land and how to divide and distribute the diverse applications were a function of neighborhood system and functional hierarchy of the cities. Neighborhoods as a unit of city structure were of the important and crucial components of the cities from the past. The role and the function of the neighborhoods helped the settling people to have more social bonds in comparison to today. With the rapid start of urbanization in the third world counties like IRAN from the middle of the twentieth century, the cities experienced a physical disruption in a way that the neighborhood of the cities which was designed on basis of the human scale broke down. Therefore the cities today do not enjoy a coherent physical structure in spite of their historical background and they have experienced heterogeneous tissues in their development process. Of course, nowadays the importance of the neighborhood has decreased in the cities and settlements of the developed societies in comparison to the past, because the social relationships and bonds have been based on the different principles and foundations. But today the pattern of neighbor- centeredness is supported for different reasons such as: (1) Providing the necessary services and facilities for people who suffer the desired mobility. (2) Having access to daily services and facilities through walking and cycling. (3) Strengthening he social sense and consequently enhancing the social participation. (4) Developing and strengthening the place attachment. Scholars like Ebenezer Howard with the theory of Garden City, Clarence Perry with the theory of Neighborhood Surrounding, Clarence Stein and Henry Wright with the design of Rodbern in the early twenty century and in the recent decades the founders of New Urbanism by introducing the TOD and TND pattern, the theory of urban-village and the approach of Neighborhood Based, all of which have been introduced in the form of small scale urban paradigm, are to achieve the neighbor-centered pattern and want to strengthen the social life through physical designing and returning Pedestrian-oriented , diversity and Vitality to the city settling environments. Tabriz as one of the important north-western cities of IRAN has experienced Unprecedented Spread with the changes it has gone under from the beginning the recent century. New parts have been built in this city on the principles of modern urbanism other than the traditional textures which have gone under the changes. Some ghettos have been developed without any plans .This study has been done to evaluate the role of Physical-Spatial Structure in the neighborhood desired performance in the traditional, modern and unplanned textures of Tabriz and to identify the effective variables of physical neighborhood (2014).Materials And MethodsThe research method has been survey-analysis and the data has been gathered through questionnaire and have been analyzed by using statistical tests and Pearson correlation coefficients. To evaluate the degree of utility of neighborhood performance, the sampling was done by using Cochran Formula. The sample size was 588 people which for each part 196 people were chosen randomly. The measurement tool was a questionnaire with 21 questions which has studied the opinions of the respondents on the Likert five-choice spectrum and for correlation test and regression equation, the SPSS software was used.Results And DiscussionOverall, there is a high correlation between the six aspects (scale, pedestrian-oriented, availability, coherence and connectedness, diversity and congestion) of Physical-Spatial Structure and the neighborhood desired performance in the traditional neighborhood in comparison to the modern and unplanned neighborhoods. And the size and the scale of the traditional neighborhoods are in a more stable state than the modern and unplanned neighborhoods. The great number of the dead end lanes and the length of the block building both in size and shape are very diverse, but because of the diversity of the applications and different functions in these neighborhoods has caused more utility. And also because of easy access to different services, the neighborhood utility is more in the traditional neighborhood. But on the basis of the analysis of simultaneous regression (ENTER) the degree of effectiveness of the six aspects of Physical-Spatial Structure in the neighborhood of the three textures is different in the performance utility. B coefficient has the highest effectiveness on the neighborhood performance utility, in the traditional neighborhood, the availability aspect with 0.488, in the modern neighborhood, the congestion aspect with 0.492 and in the unplanned neighborhood, the scale aspect with 0.424.