فصلنامه نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
سال سوم شماره 2 (پیاپی 9، تابستان 1395)

It seems to be essential, define and compute an equilibrium for the Iran’s economy in order to derive explicit predictions about the mechanism of Real Business Cycles in Iran. In this article, it is attempted to estimate some important parameters and functions of Real Business Cycle models in the equilibrium situation of Iran’s economy based on the model introduced by McCallum (1989). Therefore, first the key function of McCallum is conducted using the annual time series in the period of1959-2012, then production, household utility and Technology functions are obtained. According to the results presented in this article, elasticity of production to capital asset is 0.47 and the persistency of economy’s technology shocks is 0.79. Moreover, the persistency of technology shocks in both agriculture and oil sector are higher than all other existing sectors. Furthermore, the time preference rate and discount factor are 0.11 and 0.90 respectively. The elasticity of consumption to Leisure in Iran is 1.85.

The main purpose of the present research is to study the Causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Iran’s economy during 1990:1 – 2015:4. To achieve this goal, this paper used Vector Auto Regression model with the possibility of changing Markov Regime (MS – VAR). Results obtained from model estimation showed that depending on the placement of inflation and uncertainty variables on the regimes, causal relationship among these variables can be different. In general, results obtained from the research in relation to the presence of causality relationship from inflation to uncertainty of inflation showed that in estimated 5 cases out of the 6 cases, Friedman's (1977) and Ball’s hypothesis (1992), that inflation causes inflation uncertainty to increase, have been confirmed. Also, in the case of the causal relationship from uncertainty of inflation to inflation, it is showed that only in one case out of the 6 studied cases, Pourgerami’s and Maskus’s hypothesis (1987), that an increase in inflation causes a decrease in inflation uncertainty, has been confirmed.

The aim of this study is to design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal and real rigidities to study the effects of energy price reform on macroeconomic in Iran. We tried to consider important mechanism of energy prices on the macroeconomic. In this regard, energy consumption in the household bundle is included as a separate commodity. Also, energy was considered as an input in the production function, so that, the mechanisms impact on both the supply and demand to be considered. Impulse response functions show that, an energy price shock (one standard deviation) led to decrease in production, lower private consumption and investment returns. Also, an oil price shock increases production, inflation, consumption and investment returns.

Despite the important role of tourism in economic growth, the increase of tourists in some tourist destinations can be the cause of destruction and vulnerability of natural resources and ecosystem. Thus a strong interaction should be established between the tourism aspects and its effects on the environment. The purpose of this study was to measure the tourism sustainability through sustainable tourism indicators in three dimensions: economic, social and environmental. To achieve this goal we used a composite indicator, Delphi method and expert surveys and by using mathematical programming models, the overall level of tourism sustainability in action in selected cities of Kerman province in 2015 (Kerman, Bam, Jiroft, Rafsanjan, Sirjan and Zarand) was determined. Also these cities were ranked in terms of sustainability. Results showed that none of the mentioned cities have appropriate level of sustainability and economic and environmental aspects of the social aspects of tourism are worse than social aspect. Therefore no proper practical measures have conducted in the studied cities in the field of tourism and sustainable tourism. Therefore making appropriate policies about sustainability is inevitable due to the importance of the development of tourism in creating income and employment in the country.

The relationship between democracy and economic variables in economics and political science has received considerable attention in recent years. In these studies, democracy as a factor affecting the economic variables in econometric models has been included and fewer studies has investigated the influence of economic variables on democracy. Therefore, in this study, the effect of economic variables such as economic growth, foreign aid and trade on the level of democracy in Islamic countries with spatial econometric approach and considering the geo-spatial dependence in 2001-2012 has been investigated. The results show that foreign trade and economic growth have-not significant effect on democracy and the spatial proximity effect on the level of democracy in these countries is approved. Also, the effects of foreign aid on democracy in these countries are negative and significant. In general, the results support the positive effects of geo and trade spatial on democracy.

For any country, the stock market reflects the country's economic structure, but also is an important source of capital circulation in that country. Therefore identification of effective factors on stock market volatility is important for economic policy makers. In this regard, the present study tried investigating the impact of macroeconomic variables, including money supply growth, inflation rate, industrial production growth and market exchange rate changes on the Tehran stock exchange volatility. To achieve this purpose, seasonal data during 2003-2015 period and GARCH-X and VAR model was used. The results of model estimation show that the money supply growth and exchange rate changes have a positive and significant impact on stock returns and inflation rate has positive but insignificant impact on stock returns. Also industrial production growth has negative and significant impact on stock returns. Therefore, it is recommended that the country's planners and policy makers to prevent the lack of uncertainty in the capital markets, should avoid unmanaged economic policies and programs.