فصلنامه اقتصاد مقداری
سال سیزدهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 48، بهار 1395)

Literature review on corruption and its effect on economic growth has a long history, especially after 90’s decade, tendencies towards this filed increased rapidly. Most of the researches focus on the direct effect of corruption on economic growth and there are limited studies on indirect effect of corruption on economic growth. So in this research we are looking for transitions channels of indirect effect, and also we estimate rentier and non-rentier economies in separate groups and compare their differences. For this purpose, the data of Corruption Perception Index (CPI) from Transparency International, in the 53 selected rentier and non-rentier economies, during the years 2013-1996 is used. We also used simultaneous equations estimation method (3SLS). The results showed that the corruption index (CPI) has an indirect negative effect on economic growth in the study and most important transitions channels are investment, human capital, government spending and political instability.

In this paper,the effect ofthe implementation ofthe second stage ofsubsidieson income distributionin the Iranian economy, using data miningtechniqueshave been studied.The status of the income distribution is the Gini coefficient.The research, which is four scenarios to predict the distribution of income in the coming years, including four scenario is focused on the research, to predict the distribution of income in the coming years. And the results show that the second step, targeted subsidies and cash subsidies applied evenly to all income groups more unequal the income distribution. Also, the second phase targeted subsidies with cash subsidies to seven first-class income, income distribution than when equally to all deciles of income distribution, it makes more balanced, but in general the income distribution more uneven. The third scenario is applied to the second step, targeted subsidies and cash payments only on lower income groups, income distribution makes more balanced than in the past.

One of the main features of the more of developing countries is high volatility in the economic environment. Since volatility in terms of trade considered by many economists as an important factor in the economic environment's volatility in above mentioned countries. this study has been conducted to assess the effect of terms of trade and its Uncertainty on industry sector's value added in Iran by using time series data (1352-1391). For this purpose, the uncertainty of the term of trade has been measured by EGARCH model; and to estimate relationships between variables in model, ARDL approach was used. Results revealed that in the long term, the uncertainty of term of trade has negative and significant effect on the value added of the industrial sector. Logarithm of terms of trade, labor force and capital accumulation also have a significant positive effect on the value added of the industrial sector, but international trade integration index has no effect on value added in the long run.

Various studies emphasize the importance of transparency of the central bank. However, since the central banks has the main task of stabilizing inflation and unemployment rate in normal level, so they have some of their policies in such a way that remain hidden from view of economic agents. This increases the uncertainty in monetary policy, which in turn can affect economic growth, inflation and unemployment. In this study, using quarterly data for the years 1372-90, the economic effects of uncertainty in monetary policy will be studied on economic growth, inflation and unemployment rates in Iran. The results suggest that the increase of uncertainty in monetary policy will be followed by increasing volatility in economic variables.

Predicting price volatility has been the interest of many scholars in different markets such as stock and commodity market. Electricity like other commodities has been traded in the market in recent years. Hence, a large number of countries around the world have recently started restructuring processes in their energy sectors. However, the pace and aim of the improvements varies across countries. With the introduction of competitive wholesale electricity markets, and power derivative contracts, both exchange-traded and over the counter (OTC), providing a number of different contract provisions to meet the needs of the electricity market participants. Among all countries, Iran is not an exception for the rule. Trading electricity along other commodities in the exchange market is a new progress for this market. These changes arises this necessity to study the nature of price volatilities so that the restructuring development and adopted actions would be done in a correct and meaningful way.
This study attempts to study the price volatilities in the Iranian electricity market by an ARMAX and GARCH type model and introduce the best simulation for the period of March 2012 to March 2014. Therefore, ARMAX model in a combination with GARCH, GJR-GARCH, and EGARCH type will be compared along with Gaussian, Generalize Error, and Student-t distribution.

Mutual funds become one of most important investing mechanisms in financial market, so that by playing your role of financial intermediary, person's investments change from a direct form to indirect form. One of the most important benefits such as financial intermediaries is diversification of investment, so that they become able to reduce the investment risk. In such circumstance it seems to be a following of modern portfolio theory on the formation of the fund's investment portfolio, these benefits are increased. Thus, by consideration the role's regret in the decision-making process, optimization model known as the "expected regret minimization" raised with regard to 7 equity mutual funds in the period 2011- 2012 and by using MATLAB, the model will be run and constructed a portfolio of mutual funds. The results showed efficient performance of expected regret minimization model in the Tehran Stock Exchange, based on The return on a portfolio composed of more than the average return of the market.