فصلنامه اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
پیاپی 94 (تابستان 1395)

In many countries, for producers of agricultural products the use of futures contracts, is a good way to reduce price risk. In this study, with respect to the necessity of creating the rice futures market, the most important characteristics of rice futures contract in the Mazandaran province are determined. To determine the amount of deposit required and limit daily price fluctuations, conditional value at risk (CVaR) is used. Also to determine other characteristics of the simulated rice futures contract, the weekly cash price of 2012 to 2014 and daily free risk interest rate is used. The results show that the amount of deposit for desirable rice is 623,940 Rials and for high-yielding rice is 1,084,893 Rials. Also desirable rice is more popular than high-yielding rice for enter the future market.

The aim of present study is choice marketing strategy for Rafsanjan pistachio producers cooperative from among three competitive strategies, differentiation, focus and cost leadership (Michael Puerto strategies). With this approach and for achieving this purpose, firstly the criteria and sub-criteria is defined for Rafsanjan pistachio producers cooperative and then has been distributed the questionnaire in the company. Finally, the collected data has been analyzed by the analytic network process (ANP) method. Data used in the present study has been collected from the Rafsanjan pistachio producers cooperative in 2013. The result of this study showed, for Rafsanjan pistachio producers cooperative the strategy with highest priority through the competitive marketing strategies, differentiation, focuses and cost leadership strategies, is focus strategy. Also, the view of the cooperative, among of sub criteria, Iran's political and economic conditions are the most important factors that influence the company's marketing strategy as well as social and cultural conditions and environmental management are the low most importance factors affecting the company's marketing strategies

Production new knowledge is an important tool for developing of societies. In this regard, governments have attributed considerable cost to extension high education and researches. Policy makers developed programs to correct academic and research system. The success of these programs and policies are depended on different factors and can be assessed by different index like productivity growth of research. According to importance of agricultural and environment research, this paper has assessed productivity growth of research in this sector for middle Asia and North Africa countries by Data envelopment analysis approach. Results indicated that when variation in technical, allocative efficiency and technology had improved, productivity of research became better too. But when they all decreased, productivity growth of research degraded too. It is suggested that review of high education system and related polices are more important than increasing number and amount of organization and researches. Also, studies derived the research like this paper could be start point for reform planning and policy making.

Due to importance of farm management, mathematical programming models plays an important role in determining the optimum cropping pattern. In this research, goal programming model was applied to optimize the cropping pattern in the five scenarios. The objectives of this study include maximizing gross margin (scenario one), environmental conservation (scenario two), increase in employment (scenario three), sustainable development of water resources (scenario four) and simultaneously achieve these goals (scenario five). Sampling method of this research is two-stage stratified sampling and 493 questionnaires has been completed from 19 counties in Mazandaran Province. The results show that the achievement of the objectives of economic, social and environmental simultaneously (scenario five) is the most appropriate model. The model of this scenario create reconciliation and balance between these goals and offers holistic advice for province cropping pattern which provide all objectives relatively by increase 4 percent in current gross margin, decrease 2.85 percent in fertilizer consumption, decrease 0.38 percent in pesticide consumption, increase 8.48 percent in employment and decrease 0.9987 percent in water consumption.

In this study, according to the report of central bank, the effects of 26.1 reduction of production of farming sector - which is resulted the drought in 2007 - on the output of other sectors, decreasing of income of production factors and income of institutional were surveyed. The conventional SAM model is not appropriate for such analysis, therefore, a modified supply-side SAM which simultaneously takes into account demand-side and supply-side was used. The results according to the 2006 SAM show that from the demand-side, the impact of output reduction of 26.1 percent decreases 1.8 value added whereas decrease from supply-side is 2.9 percent of value added. These findings reveal that the forward linkage of farming sector is more important than its backward linkage.

The main goal of this paper is estimating willingness to pay of households for safe and pesticide-free vegetables using Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) in Urmia. Data were collected by face to face surveying of 336 respondents in 2012. To determine the effective factors on willingness to pay, logit models using linear and logarithmic functional forms (restricted and unrestricted models) were estimated. Comparing functional forms showed that the restricted linear logit model (model with only significant explanatory variables) has better fit in regard to other models. Results showed that offered bid, willingness to buy safe products, eating out of home, age, marital status, number of family members, education level and level of income have significant effects on the probability of accepting offered bid. The expected value of willingness to pay is estimated 26790.48 Rials; that shows people are willing to pay 26790 Rials per kilogram of safe and pesticide-free vegetables. This estimate can be an instrument in policy-makers hand for planning to produce agricultural pesticide-free crops.

Organic production is response to conventional and commercial products to improve the quality and health. Data were collected from 200 respondents of Mashhad county in 2012 and using seemingly unrelated regression model, effective factors on the household future consume of organic livestock products were surveyed. The results indicated that Mashhad households tend on average 49.6 percent of their livestock products consumption to future to the organic consumer. Also, results of regression models revealed that education, gender, willing to pay the price difference between organic than non-organic livestock products, food value, organic label and concerns associated with non-organic livestock products have a positive effect on willing to consume of the future organic livestock products and appearance of livestock products has a negative effect on willing to consume of the future organic livestock products.

Considering the importance of food security and the effect of price increases on its, in this study household consumption pattern of food demand was surveyed and the impact of price increases on food security was considered. To study the effects of rising prices, the elasticities of calories, carbohydrates and protein for households were considered separately. In this regard, all rural household food groups were divided into 16 major groups according to their cost-income and with using censored quadratic almost ideal demand system; own prices, cross and expenditures elasticities of demand were calculated. Finally, nutrients elasticities (calories, carbohydrates, and protein) and percentage change in calories, carbohydrates and protein with respect to the growth of food prices during 2011 to 2013 were discussed. Apart from determining the complementarity and substitution of foods, and categorizing them into luxury or necessary commodities, the results reveal that the prices increase in these years have a large impact on reducing nutrient received by the household. Among commodities, rising the bread prices have the greatest impact on food security in terms of the three nutrients components and chicken and dairy protein in the corresponding group of protein have the greatest impact.

Today increasing production capacity requires the special attention on agricultural sector and increasing investment in this sector. Achievement of a higher level of production considering the limitation of resources, is one the most important economic and developmental goals of every society and serious attention to regional capacities and directing regional investments toward development and expansion of production activities is one of the development necessities. In the present article it has been tried to first provide a framework of concepts and techniques of regional economy as well as a scientific and expert analysis from agricultural structure of Hamedan province. It has also been tried to identify the activities of the agricultural sector and investment priorities in the agriculture of this province and considering he sub-sectors of agriculture that have a higher priority, it has been tried to provide a proper context for agricultural growth and development. For this purpose, with the use of factor analysis, Numerical Taxonomy methods and based on the provided information and data by statistics center of Iran in 2012, investment priorities in agricultural sector have been determined and specified for Hamedan province. Results of this study indicate that production of crops, horticulture products, animal husbandry, livestock and poultry production, dairy production, food processing industries have the highest rate of profitability. Also, production of carpets, rugs, Jajim, Gabbeh and transportation and warehousing services have the highest capacity for employment.

Understanding of government policies and categorizing and prioritizing them in order to perform accurate them is essential. Hence, in order to achieve optimal production conditions should take suitable supporting policies for agriculture sector. This study is to assess sector consumer supporting policy of livestock and poultry sub-sector during the first to fourth program during 1989-2009 by MPS and CSE indices by using of OECD approach. The results show that for livestock and poultry sub-sector, CSE in nominal value change form -163.06 Bil Rials in 1999 to -78998.43 Bil Rials in 2009. Also, in real value change form -3197.41 Bil Rials in 1999 to -39179.9 Bil Rials in 2009 (about 12 times). Most supporting is allocated during 2end development program to livestock and poultry sub-sector that is 10223.05 Bil Rials. Results of demand model shows that livestock and poultry consumer supporting policy have had a variety effect on demand. So, consumer supporting policy has negative effect on beef and lamb (-0.13 and -0.08). But due to consumer supporting policy, chicken and specially milk demand, have increased (0.25 and 0.43). It seems that according to quantity and direction of consumer supporting policy effect on demand, we could use it for determination of suitable direction of consumer supporting policy.

This study evaluates the economic effects of the liberalization of energy carrier prices on the wheat, flour and beard markets, using price endogenous mathematical programming model. The results showed that the reduction of subsidies resulted in decrease in wheat production and increase in price, import and wheat allocated to flour in the wheat market and as well, will lead to increase in price, import and flour allocated to bread in the market of flour and bread. Following these changes, the removal of energy subsidies in the short term and long term, cause decrease in the consumer’ surplus, net exports as well as increased producers surplus, government gain and the costs of production of flour and bread. Finally, it is recommended to implement complementary policies (such as improved seeds, reducing waste and improving flour and bread production technology) coinciding with performing the reform to compensate the reduction in social welfare.