فهرست مطالب

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی - سال سی‌ام شماره 3 (پاییز 1395)
  • سال سی‌ام شماره 3 (پاییز 1395)
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1395/10/11
  • تعداد عناوین: 6
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  • علمی _ پژوهشی
  • طاهر عزیزی خالخیلی، غلامحسین زمانی، عزت الله کرمی صفحات 148-159
    تغییرات و نوسانات اقلیمی روی بخش کشاورزی در مناطق مختلف جهان از جمله ایران تاثیرات منفی گذاشته و کشاورزان برای حفظ معیشت خویش نیازمند سازگاری بیشتر با این تغییرات و نوسانات می باشند. برای سازگار شدن، کشاورزان با مشکلات و موانعی مواجه هستند و نیاز به کمک سازمان های مسئول دارند. در این راستا این تحقیق با هدف شناسایی موانع و مشکلات کشاورزان برای سازگاری با نوسانات اقلیمی و ارائه راهکارهایی برای بهبود شرایط در شهرستان مرودشت استان فارس در سه فاز انجام شد. در فاز اول یک مطالعه کیفی با بهره گیری از فن مصاحبه در گروه تمرکز در دو روستای شهرستان مرودشت که آزمودنی ها به صورت هدفمند انتخاب شدند، انجام گردید. در فاز دوم یک پیمایش با استفاده از ابزار پرسشنامه روی 307 نفر از کشاورزان شهرستان که با استفاده از نمونه گیری تصادفی طبقه بندی شده انتخاب شده بودند انجام شد و در فاز سوم در یک جلسه گروه افراد خبره با کارشناسان جهاد کشاورزی شهرستان مرودشت نظرات انها بررسی شد. بر اساس نتایج فاز اول هشت مشکل در دو روستا با شرایط متفاوت شناسایی گردید. در فاز دوم موانع و مشکلات در دو بعد موانع فردی و موانع نهادی اولویت بندی شدند و در فاز سوم بر اساس نظرات کارشناسان جهاد کشاورزی شهرستان وضعیت موجود و وضعیت مطلوب راهکارهای بهبود سازگاری در سه بعد اطلاع رسانی، مدیریت مزرعه و اداری و مالی ارائه شد.
    کلیدواژگان: شهرستان مرودشت، کارشناسان کشاورزی، معیشت کشاورزان
  • سمیه لطیفی، احمد یعقوبی فرانی صفحات 160-172
    با توجه به قابلیت های تعاونی های طیور در تولید محصولات دامی به ویژه گوشت سفید و تخم مرغ و سیاست های دولت در زمینه توسعه بخش تعاون ضرورت دارد راهکارهای توانمندسازی این تعاونی ها شناسایی شوند تا با برنامه ریزی جهت اجرایی شدن این راهکارها موجبات رشد و شکوفایی آنها فراهم شود. پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی راهکارهای توانمندسازی تعاونی های طیور با استفاده از تکنیک دلفی و رتبه بندی آنها با بهره گیری از تکنیک های تصمیم گیری چند شاخصه TOPSIS و SAW در سال 1394 انجام شده است. جامعه آماری تحقیق را کارشناسان اداره تعاون، کار و رفاه اجتماعی، کارشناسان امور دام سازمان جهاد کشاورزی و مدیران عامل اتحادیه های تعاونی های طیور استان همدان تشکیل می-دهند که از بین آنها به روش نمونه گیری هدفمند 20 نفر انتخاب شدند. براساس نتایج بدست آمده 22 راهکار جهت توانمندسازی تعاونی های طیور توسط کارشناسان طی سه مرحله انجام تکنیک دلفی شناسایی شد که در دو گروه راهکارهای درون سازمانی و برون سازمانی دسته بندی شدند. نتایج رتبه بندی راهکارها با استفاده از تکنیک های تصمیم گیری چند شاخصه نشان داد که در بین راهکارهای درون سازمانی به کارگیری افراد تحصیل کرده و متخصص در ارکان تعاونی ها، برنامه ریزی جهت متناسب نمودن تولید تعاونی های طیور با نیازهای بازار و مرتبط بودن رشته تحصیلی مدیر عامل با موضوع فعالیت تعاونی و در بین راهکارهای برون سازمانی برنامه ریزی جهت جلوگیری از نوسان قیمت نهادهای تولید، حذف بروکراسی و همکاری دستگاه های دولتی در ارایه خدمات به تعاونی ها، تقویت اتحادیه های تعاونی های طیور و دادن اختیارات لازم به آنها و واگذاری واردات نهاده ها به اتحادیه های مرغداران و مساعدت مالی دولت به آنها در اولویت های اول تا سوم قرار گرفتند. راهکارهای شناسایی شده در دو گروه درون سازمانی و برون سازمانی را می توان پیشنهادهای این نوشتار قلمداد نمود که می باید با برنامه ریزی اصولی زمینه اجرایی شدن آنها فراهم شود.
    کلیدواژگان: استان همدان، تعاونی های طیور، تکنیک دلفی، تکنیک TOPSIS، تکنیک SAW، توانمندسازی
  • محمد قهرمان زاده، قادر دشتی، زهرا رسولی بیرامی صفحات 173-187
    در این مقاله سعی شده است که چرخش رژیم و سرریز تلاطم قیمت در سطوح عمودی بازار دام و طیور کشور با کاربرد مدل چندمتغیره ی مارکف سوئیچینگ GARCH الگوسازی شود. برای این منظور از سری های قیمت ماهانه ی دان مرغ، مرغ زنده، گوشت مرغ (سطوح عمودی بازار مرغ)، علوفه، گوسفند زنده، گوشت گوسفند (سطوح عمودی بازار گوسفند)، علوفه، گوساله ی زنده و گوشت گوساله (سطوح عمودی بازار گوساله) در دوره زمانی 92-1376 استفاده شد. نتایج بدست آمده مبین وجود دو رژیم تلاطمی در سطوح عمودی هر سه بازار مرغ، گوسفند و گوساله و چرخش های پی در پی رژیم تلاطم قیمت بویژه بازار گوشت قرمز کشور می باشند که ریسک و عدم حتمیت زیادی را به بازار دام و طیور کشور تحمیل می نماید. در سطوح عمودی هر سه بازار هر چند دوره ی دوام رژیم پرتلاطم کمتر از رژیم کم تلاطم می باشد ولی تعداد و طول دوره های زمانی همراه با تلاطم بالای قیمت بسیار زیاد می باشد. بر اساس نتایج سرریز تلاطم قیمت، سرریزهای مختلف شوک ها و نیز تلاطم قیمت ها بین سطوح مختلف هر سه بازار و در هر دو رژیم تلاطم قیمت رخ داده است؛ هرچند سرریزها در رژیم پرتلاطم در هر سه بازار شدیدتر و یا بیشتر از رژیم کم تلاطم بوده است. بر این اساس، می توان بیان نمود که سطوح عمودی بازار دام و طیور کشور ارتباطات قیمتی متقابل و قوی باهم دارند که بایستی در سیاستگذاری های مربوط به بخش کاملا مدنظر قرار گیرد. از سوی دیگر، به علت چرخش های پی در پی رژیم تلاطم قیمت بویژه در بازار گوشت قرمز، عدم حتمیت و به تبع آن، عدم قابلیت پیش بینی شرایط آینده، ویژگی بارز این بازارها می باشد. این ویژگی شرایط نامطمئنی را برای سرمایه گذاران و تولیدکنندگان در این بخش بوجود آورده و از سوی دیگر رفاه مصرف کنندگان نیز پی در پی دچار تغییر می شود. لذا باید برای تشویق سرمایه گذاری تلاش هایی در جهت توسعه ی ابزارهای مدیریت ریسک از قبیل بیمه و نیز کاهش تلاطم قیمت و چرخش پی در پی آن در بازار دام و طیور کشور صورت گیرد.
    کلیدواژگان: احتمالات هموار شده، سرریز تلاطم قیمت، ماتریس احتمالات گذار، مارکف سوئیچینگ
  • مصطفی مردانی، علیرضا نیکویی، سامان ضیائی، محمود احمدپور صفحات 188-206
    اهمیت و ضرورت برنامه ریزی منطقه ای کشت را می توان ناشی از لزوم استفاده بهینه از ظرفیت های تولید منطقه ای و ارائه راهکارهایی جهت نیل به توازن عرضه و تقاضا در تصمیم گیری ها و تخصیص منابع تولید کشاورزی دانست. مطالعه حاضر به معرفی الگوی فراگیر برنامه ریزی منطقه ای کشت محصولات کشاورزی پرداخته که یکی از زیر مجموعه های رویکرد برنامه ریزی ساختاری چند هدفه (MOSP) بوده و اهداف متفاوتی همچون اهداف اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست محیطی به صورت مجزا و توام مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. محدوده مطالعاتی عبارت از اراضی قابل کشت زراعی و باغی در محدوده تقسیمات سیاسی-جغرافیائی 23 شهرستان واقع در استان اصفهان در سال 1393 بود. نتایج نشان داد که در گروه های اصلی غلات و علوفه کاهش محسوسی در سطح زیرکشت بهینه مدل چند هدفه به ترتیب به میزان 32 و 58 درصد رخ داده است. افزایش سطح زیرکشت گروه محصولات باغی به میزان 38 درصد در الگوی بهینه مدل چند هدفه از دیگر موارد مهم در تحلیل نتایج بود. در مجموع جهت نیل به اهداف اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست محیطی ذکر شده در این مطالعه در قالب یک برنامه ریزی چند هدفه کاهش 37 درصدی سطح زیرکشت در استان اصفهان اجتناب ناپذیر است. دست آوردهای این اقدام کاهش مصرف آب آبیاری به میزان 10 درصد، افزایش سود ناخالص به میزان 24 درصد و افزایش تولید به میزان 10 درصد می باشد. با توجه به اینکه در طرح برنامه ریزی ساختاری الگوی کشت اهدافی متفاوت و گاها متضاد مورد نظر بوده و ایجاد مصالحه بین اهداف مورد نظر در مدل برنامه ریزی ساختاری چند هدفه امکان پذیر است، لذا استفاده از آن برای تصمیم گیرندگان توصیه می شود.
    کلیدواژگان: آب آبیاری، استان اصفهان، برنامه ریزی ساختاری چند هدفه، برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
  • حبیب شهبازی، احمد سام دلیری صفحات 207-217
    در این مطالعه، منابع رشد بهره وری کل عوامل تولید محصول برنج در استان های مختلف با استفاده از رهیافت اقتصاد سنجی با استفاده از تابع تجزیه پذیر مرزی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. در ابتدا تابع تولید ترانسلوگ با استفاده از داده های جمع آوری شده برای دوره زمانی 1384-1392 برآورد شد. سپس، رشد بهره وری کل عوامل تولید به چهار جزء تغییرات فنی، تغییرات کارایی فنی، تغییر کارایی مقیاس و تغییر کارایی تخصیصی تجزیه گردید. نتایج نشان داد بهره وری کل عوامل تولید برنج درکشور و در فاصله سال های مورد بررسی بطور متوسط سالانه به میزان 3/4 درصد رشد داشته است. بیشترین رشد مربوط به استان مازندران و کمترین آن در استان گلستان بوده است. همچنین بیشترین سهم در رشد بهره وری کل عوامل عمدتا به کارایی مقیاس و کارایی فنی بر می گردد. همچنین متوسط کشش مقیاس برای مجموع مزارع (مقادیری بین 12/1 و 18/1)، بازده به مقیاس قابل توجهی را در فناوری تولید در همه دوره ها نشان می دهد. با این فرض که فناوری تولید در تمامی استان ها تا حدود زیادی مشابه می باشد، تفاوت های استانی در کارایی مقیاس می تواند ناشی از تفاوت در اندازه مزارع باشد. مزارع کوچکتر در مقایسه با مزارع بزرگتر، دارای بازده به مقیاس بزرگتری هستند. در نهایت می توان گفت که با افزایش سطح مزارع می توان کارایی فنی را افزایش می یابد.
    کلیدواژگان: رهیافت اقتصادسنجی، کارایی تخصیصی، کارایی فنی، کارایی مقیاس، کشش مقیاس
  • زهرا نعمت الهی، سید مجتبی مجاوریان، مسعود حسین زاده صفحات 218-226
    گردشگری روستایی با ظرفیت هایی که دارد، می تواند به عنوان راهکاری اساسی در توسعه پایدار روستایی مطرح شود. لذا مطالعه حاضر با استفاده از روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP) می کوشد با نگاهی کاربردی و علمی، ابتدا عوامل موثر بر گردشگری روستایی در استان مازندران را اولویت بندی نموده و سپس بر اساس نظر 11 تن از کارشناسان سازمان میراث فرهنگی، گردشگری و صنایع دستی، بهترین مناطق روستایی این استان را از حیث گردشگری، شناسایی و رتبه بندی نماید. داده های مورد نیاز مطالعه از طریق پرسشگری از 150 تن از گردشگران روستایی استان مازندران در سال 1394 جمع آوری شده است. نتایج نشان داد که از نظر گردشگران، معیار مربوط به زیرساخت ها بیشترین اولویت را داشته است و بعد از آن به ترتیب معیارهای جاذبه های فرهنگی و اجتماعی، تسهیلات و خدمات توریستی و جاذبه های مذهبی، تاریخی و طبیعی قرار دارند. همچنین بر مبنای نظر کارشناسان و با توجه به اولویت های تعیین شده توسط گردشگران، روستاهای غرب استان مازندران با وزن 36/0 حائز بیشترین اولویت جهت گردشگری بوده و روستاهای مرکز و شرق استان به ترتیب با وزن های 33/0 و 31/0 در اولویت های بعدی قرار می گیرند. بنابراین تجهیز جاذبه های گردشگری به سطوحی از خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی و ارائه تسهیلات و امکانات مالی و تخصصی جهت تجهیز و ساماندهی اقامتگاه-های موجود پیشنهاد می گردد.
    کلیدواژگان: تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP)، توسعه روستایی، گردشگری روستایی، مازندران
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  • Taher Azizi, Khalkheili, Gholamhosein Zamani, Ezatollah Karami Pages 148-159
    Introduction
    Human activities have induced change and variation in world climate. Climate change and variability are important issues because of their effects on agriculture, environment, public health and total society. Developing countries are generally more vulnerable to the consequences of these changes, as they tend to rely more on climate-sensitive sectors, such as subsistence agriculture where lack the resources to buffer themselves against the changes. Researches have been done in Iran indicate the occurrence of climate change and variation. The agriculture sector is one of those that seriously affected by climate change and variation therefore to maintain their livelihood farmers need to adapt to climate change and variation. Agriculture is a risky job inherently, and climate change with unexpected future worsens the situation. These changes are a serious threat, especially for smallholder farmers’ livelihood, because they lack sufficient resources such as credit or crop insurance to adapt to this change and to cope with challenges. Adaptation involves the action that people take in response to, or in anticipation of, projected or actual changes in climate to reduce adverse impacts or take advantage of the opportunities posed by climate change. There is very uncertainty about how farmers will respond to the climate change and variation, so more understanding of social and economic factors that affect farmers’ perception of climate change and variation and their response to these changes is needed. This research was conducted in three phases to investigate farmers’ barriers to adaptation to climate change and suggest solutions to improve the situation in Marvadasht County, Fars Province.
    Materials And Methods
    In phase one, consulting Marvdasht Jihad-Agriculture experts two villages purposefully selected as research sample. One village with highest climate variation and one village with lowest climate variation. A qualitative research using focus group depth interview technique was implemented in selected villages and farmers perspectives about main obstacles and barriers of farmers adaptation to climate variation was investigated. In phase two, based on phase one results also literature review, eight barriers recognized as a farmers main problem. Then to rank the importance of these barriers from farmers perspective a survey research was conducted on 307 farmers selected by multistage stratified random sampling from four sections of Marvdasht County. In phase three, based on the results of the previous phases as well library research, suggested solutions for improvement of the situation of farmers adaptation were determined. Perceptions of Marvdasht Jihad-Agriculture experts’ perspective was investigated about suggested solutions in an expert group session. Then, using a general question and open discussion experts perspective about farmers barriers to adaptation to climate variation and their suggested solutions were investigated.
    Results And Discussion
    Based on research findings, in phase one, eight barriers of farmers adaptation were recognized in two villages with a different situation in a focus group depth interview. These barriers include financial constraints and lack of saved money, lack of credit and loan problem, inequitable distribution of governmental facilities, unsuitable programing to distribute facilities, organizational bureaucracy, insurance problems, lack of a suitable market to sale products, and land fragmentation. In phase two, based on survey results barriers ranked in two groups of individual and institutional barriers, and in phase three based on Marvdasht Jihad-Agriculture experts’ viewpoints, the present and ideal condition of solutions to face the challenges of adaptation were presented in three dimensions (providing information, farm management, as well administration and financing). Based on experts’ perspective, these solutions ranked regarding their necessity and importance of attention. More essential solutions were: presenting information and consultation about whether situation and forecast to farmers in radio and television as well as agricultural extension service centers, decreasing bad usage of water resources and deeping the well, preventing the crops like rice with high water need and cultivating crops with low water need and drought resistant, improving the credit supply system to decrease farmers’ financial problems and lack of capital (include low interest loans, crop insurance, production subsidies…). According to experts’ view points, there are 12 barriers and obstacles for farmers’ adaptation to climate variation and they suggested some recommendations to reduce these barriers.
    Conclusion
    Agriculture is highly dependent on weather situation and alteration in weather parameters such as temperature, precipitation and CO2 as a result of climate change influence farming system outputs. Adaptation to climate change and variation is a prerequisite for sustainable development. Farmers to maintain their livelihood also coping and adapt to climate variation face different barriers and obstacles, they need support from related organizations to overcome these barriers. In this regard the first action of organizations and individual that have responsibility is suitable recognition of farmers’ situation and their problems. As research findings reveal there are various problems and obstacles regarding the perspective of farmers and experts. Considering these problems and suggested solutions from different stakeholders, it could be hopeful to see better adaptation to climate variation in the future.
    Keywords: Agricultural experts, Farmer's livelihood, Marvdasht Township
  • Somaye Latifi, Ahmad Yaghoubi Pages 160-172
    Introduction
    Today the consumption of animal protein has been allocated a special place in human nutrition. Poultry cooperatives have an important role in protein production. Given the significance of producing animal products and the capabilities that the poultry cooperatives possess in this regard as well as considering the macroeconomic policies of governments respecting developing the cooperative sector, it is necessary to identify the strategies that empower cooperatives. So the objective of this study was to identify strategies for empowering the poultry cooperatives by using the Delphi technique and ranking them by using the TOPSIS and SAW techniques in Hamedan province.
    Materials And Methods
    The present study is application oriented and in terms of methodology, it is deemed a descriptive survey. The statistical population consists of experts of cooperative, Labor and Social Welfare offices, experts of Animal Affairs in Agriculture of Jihad organization and managing directors of the poultry cooperatives in Hamedan province that through a purposive sampling sample size of 20 was selected to respond to the main question of research. To ranking the identified strategies, MCDM techniques of TOPSIS and SAW were applied.
    Results And Discussion
    In the first step of the Delphi technique, some open-ended questionnaires were distributed among experts to identify the strategies for empowering the poultry cooperatives. In this step, 22 strategies were identified. In the second stage, there was a strong consensus among experts on 15 of the 22 identified strategies. In the third step, after determining the percentage of agreement among experts regarding each of the identified strategies, they were divided into two groups of internal and external organizational strategies. According to the results of ranking the internal organizational strategies for empowering the poultry cooperatives by using TOPSIS technique, planning to production commensurate with market demand (CL =0.655), employing experienced and educated persons in cooperatives (CL =0.566) and creating credit cooperatives for the poultry industry with the participation of poultry cooperatives (CL =0.564) held the first, second and third ranks in terms of significance. The results attained from ranking the internal organizational strategies by SAW technique showed that the strategy of employing experienced and educated persons in cooperatives (A*=1.60) and the attending of cooperatives in the livestock products exhibitions (A*=1.144) held the first and last ranks. The relevance of the degree of the executive director to the subject of cooperative activities (A*=1.57) and planning, to production commensurate with market demand (A*=1.56), held the second and third ranks. Based on the results of ranking the external organizational factors for empowering the poultry cooperatives by using TOPSIS technique, planning to avoid from input prices fluctuations (CL=0.681), elimination of bureaucracy and cooperate governmental agencies in providing services to cooperatives (CL=0.649) and paying subsidies to production of inputs such as medicines and vaccines by the government (CL=0.646) held the first, second and third ranks. The results attained from ranking the external organizational strategies by using SAW technique showed that the strategy of planning to avoid from input prices fluctuations entities with the highest score (A*=1.60), monitoring on cooperatives performance and activities by the cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare offices (A*=1.26) held the first and last ranks. Additionally, such strategies as strengthening of the union of poultry cooperatives and transmit part of special authorities to them (A*=1.59) and import of inputs by the union of poultry cooperatives and government financial support of them (A*=1.58) held the second and third ranks.
    Conclusion
    According to results of ranking the identified strategies by using TOPSIS and SAW techniques, in internal organizational strategies “Employing experienced and educated persons in cooperatives”, “Planning to production commensurate with market demand” and “The relevance of the degree of the executive director to the subject of cooperative activities” was placed at the first to the third rank. In external organizational strategies “Planning to avoid from input prices fluctuations”, “Elimination of bureaucracy and cooperate governmental agencies in providing services to cooperatives”, “Strengthening of union of poultry cooperatives and transmit part of special authorities to them” and “Import of inputs by the union of poultry cooperatives and government financial support of them” were placed at the first to third rank.
    Keywords: Empowering, Delphi technique, Hamedan province, Poultry cooperatives, SAW technique, TOPSIS technique
  • Mohammad Ghahremanzadeh, Ghahder Dashti, Zahra Rasouli Birami Pages 173-187
    Introduction
    The relationship between different market levels is an essential issue in economy. Understanding of linkages between different market levels will help to assess the potential impact of agricultural policies. Given the importance of the vertical market relationship, the present study examines price volatility spillover in vertical market levels of Iranian livestock and poultry market prices. For this, we use monthly returns series of broiler feed, chicken, broiler (as substitutes for broiler vertical market levels), hay, sheep, mutton (as substitutes for mutton vertical market levels), hay, calf and beef (as substitutes for beef vertical market levels) during the period of April 1997 to March 2014. Another important aspect that is considered in this study is the volatility regime switching. Many variables undergo events that seem their time series’ behavior has changed quite dramatically. Such structural breaks are mainly observed in the economic and financial time series data. The regime switching must not be totally considered as a predictable and deterministic event. As if the process has changed in the past, it could obviously change in the future too. Therefore, it should be considered as a random variable and hence a full-time series model will include probabilistic inference about switching from one regime to another regime. Hence, by doing a present study, we will be able to answer the questions such as: whether a significant regime change happened in livestock and poultry vertical market levels? Is there any significant volatility spillover in vertical market levels? Is there any difference between the volatility spillovers in high and low volatility regimes? To what extent the price volatility spills over the vertical markets?
    Materials And Methods
    A multivariate Markov switching model, that is best for our study aims, has been introduced by Haas and Mittnik (2008) to the volatility spillover literature which is a generalization of Haas et al. (2004) univariate model. In fact, it is a multi-regime version of Bollerslev et al. (1988) VECH model. Regime depended on variance matrices are defined by equation below: Aij, i = 0, …, q, and Bij, i = 1, …, p, are parameter matrices. Index j is determining the volatility regime. This model does not directly estimable and to ensure positive definite covariance matrices some limitation should be imposed. For this purpose, Haas and Mittnik (2008) used Engle and Kroner (1995) proposed approach as: Where are lower triangular matrices and Aij* and Bij* are M  M parameter matrices that must be estimated (Hess and Mittnik, 2008). The Aij* elements are the coefficients that explain the effect of volatility shocks or news and the Bij* elements are the coefficients that explain the effect of past volatilities on the current volatility of prices.
    Results And Discussion
    The results indicate the existence of two volatility regimes in vertical market levels of all three studied markets and also successive switches of volatility regimes, especially for meat (mutton and beef) market. According to evidence obtained in this study, although the durability of low volatility regime is lower than the high volatility regime in all cases and unconditional probability of staying in the high volatility regime is lower, but still the number of months and the length of periods in the high volatility regime are not in acceptable ranges. Based on the results, different shock and volatility spillovers between the different levels of the three markets have been occurring in both regimes; although the spillovers in high volatility regimes were more severe.
    Conclusion
    Price spikes like those we have witnessed for Iranian poultry and livestock products in recent years are not just part of a trend of higher prices. They are also part of a different phenomenon, price volatility, as its presence can be proved from our findings of broiler feed, chicken, broiler, hay, calf, sheep, beef and mutton – a combination of the abnormal unpredictability of prices and of unusually large variations, particularly upward. Although our findings differ in the magnitude of price volatility in each studied market, we agree that livestock market is more volatile than the poultry market and that volatility will persist in the coming years as past. While higher food prices can be an opportunity for farmers, price volatility hurts both consumers and producers. This extreme range of price volatilities hurts net food consumers and makes their welfare to change time to time. Moreover, the unpredictability of prices inhibits planning, makes investment risky and discourages farmers from producing more for the market. This represents a lost opportunity for farmers to raise their incomes, and for the country to develop the potential of programs to contribute to food security.
    Keywords: Markov switching, Smoothed probabilities, Transition probabilities, Volatility spillover
  • Mostafa Mardani, Alireza Nikouei, Saman Ziaei, Mahmoud Ahmadpour Pages 188-206
    Introduction
    The importance and necessity of regional analysis of cropping pattern could be due to the need of regional balance and present strategies to achieve balance in decision making and allocation of agricultural production resources. The regional planning is a systematic attempt to choose the best available methods in order to achieve a specific goal in a region. Agriculture planning problems are important from both social and economic viewpoints. They involve a complex interaction of nature and economics. Due to the increase of population, there is always a need for more production to meet the ever increasing demand. One way of achieving high productivity is to increase the area under cultivation. Third -world countries like Iran losing land due to population growth. Agricultural planning problems in terms of social, environmental, and economic issues are important. Decision making in agriculture is generally complicated so that farmers are facing very often conflicting objectives. The scope of this paper is to design and implement a multi-objective mathematical programming model for Isfahan province that optimizes the production plan of agricultural regions taking into account the available resources. Application of the proposed model to the case study of the Isfahan province demonstrates the reliability and flexibility of the model.
    Materials And Methods
    In the formulation of the proposed model, set restrictions on irrigation water, production inputs (land, fertilizer, and etc.), and economic variables, as well as the minimum and maximum demand, are described. Also, the different objectives of economics (Gross margin maximization of agricultural activities), social (Maximizing the number of labor in agricultural production) and environmental (Minimizing the use of irrigation water and the cost of chemical fertilizers and pesticides) was considered. Fuzzy multi-objective linear programming model was used to solve the proposed model. As study regions, the information of 23 cities located in Isfahan province, Iran by providing questionnaires and statistical data are taken into account. To expand the potential use of the model, the model solution is compared with the existing crop plan of the study regions. Using Access and SQL server database software to manage and initial processing of data and GAMS software to solve the optimization model due to a large number of information, equations and variables used in the proposed model was inevitable. Some parameters also related to the topic of energy such as the total energy produced, the energy produced per hectare, and energy produced per unit of irrigation water are considered.
    Results And Discussion
    The cultivation regional planning model for Isfahan province was programmed in GAMS software. The importance of each of the objectives were summarized by Jehad-Keshavarzi organization experts of Isfahan province. The weights are 0.3, 0.05, 0.15, and 0.5 for maximizing gross margin, minimizing the use of irrigation water, maximizing the number of labor, and minimizing the cost of fertilizers and pesticides, respectively. The results showed that the main groups of cereals and for ages were reduced from all optimized models. According to the cropping pattern in the multi-objective programming model, two main groups of cereals and for ages have significantly reduced the crop pattern compared to the current and this reduction was32 and58percent, respectively. MOP model proposed reducing the irrigation water use by 10 percent, increase the gross margin by 24 percent, and increase the production by 10 percent. The total energy produced, the energy produced per hectare, and energy produced per unit of irrigation water reduced in all optimized models.
    Conclusions
    The objective of this study is to present a cultivation regional planning with the multi-objective model for optimal allocation of land under cultivation and proposes an annual agricultural plan for different crops. The output of our research may become a useful analytical tool for agricultural planners. In this study, we have been able to demonstrate that the multi-objective programming approach is a better technique over a single objective criterion when multiple conflicting objectives are involved. According to the results, the most limiting factor in cultivation regional planning is irrigation water. Also, the proposed model offers a reduction in the area under cultivation. So, using reduced irrigation water availability policies to reduce the total cultivated area is recommended. The reduction of energy produced in all optimized model can be a suitable research topic to add restrictions to the proposed model. Some cities like Najaf-abad (in the main groups of horticultural and pharmaceutical crops), Naein (in the main groups of Industrial crops), and Mobarakeh (in the main groups of kitchen garden) have the potential to expand the area under cultivation and can be adopted appropriate promotional activities in these cases.
    Keywords: Irrigation water, Isfahan province, Multi, objective structural planning, Regional planning
  • Habib Shahbazi, Ahmad Samdeliri Pages 207-217
    Introduction
    In this study, total factor productivity growth components in rough rice production are assisting by econometric approach and stochastic frontier function during 2005-2013 for several provinces (Mazandaran province, Guilan province, Golestan province, Fars province, Khoozestan province). According to Food and Agriculture Organization statics, Iran is the 3rd importer and 20th exporter of rice in the world. But, during the study years (2005-2013), Iran has been one of the 6 largest importers of these products that on average about 33 percent of domestic needs are provided by imports. Annual per capita consumption of rice during 1990-2012 had been changed from 38.6 to 43.9 Kilogram. So, it can be concluded that rice has a special place in the Iranian consumption bundle. But in the production sector, cultivation area has been decreasing 15 percent during 2005-2009 and was fixed during 2009-2013. These matters indicate that domesticate production cannot provide domesticate consumption. One of the suitable ways of increasing production is increasing in total factor productivity. This strategy is needed to identify components of TFP growth sources. So, the main goal of this study is the decomposition of rice TFP in Iran.
    Materials And Methods
    TFP decommission growth can be analytically by four approaches included econometric estimation of production and the cost function, TFP indices of Divisia and Turnqvist, Data envelopment approaches (DEA) such as Malmqvist and stochastic frontier analysis. This study uses a stochastic frontier analysis to decompose total factor productivity (TFP) growth into four components: technical change (TC), technical efficiency (TE) change, scale efficiency (SE) change, and allocative efficiency (AE) change. For this new approach, at first, Translog production function is estimated by gathering data. So, by estimation of Translog production function, total factor productivity growths are decomposed to TC and changes in TE, SE, and AE. For the total factor productivity decomposition, we employ the time-varying model for technical inefficiency. Firm inefficiency is assumed to be distributed as a generalized truncated–normal random variable which is distributed independently of the normally distributed random errors.
    Results And Discussion
    Results indicate technical efficiency have been 0.86, 0.79, 0.69, 0.73 and 0.86 for Mazandaran, Guilan, Golestan Khoozstan and Fars provinces, respectively for the year of 2012. That is, most technical efficiencies were for Mazandaran and Fars provinces. Also, technical efficiency has been 0.73, 0.75, 0.77, 0.81 and 0.81 for a farm with size less than 0.5 Ha, between 0.5 and 1 Ha, between 1 and 2 Ha, between 2 and 3 Ha and more than 3 Ha, respectively for years of 2012. That is, most technical efficiencies were from a farm with the size of more than 2 ha. The annual growth rate of technical efficiency changes during 2005-2013 have been 2.3, 1.6, 0.3, 0.9 and 1.6 percent for Mazandaran, Guilan, Golestan Khoozstan and Fars provinces, respectively. For Iran, also has been 1.5 percent. The annual growth rate of scale efficiency change during 2005-2013 have been 1.5, 1, 1, 1.2 and 2.3 percent for Mazandaran, Guilan, Golestan Khoozstan and Fars provinces, respectively. Also, for Iran it has been 1.9 percent. Annual growth rate of Allocative efficiency change during 2005-2013 have been 0.01, 0.6, 0.3, 0.5 and 0.5 percent for Mazandaran, Guilan, Golestan Khoozstan and Fars provinces, respectively. Also, for Iran it has been 0.8 percent. Finally, annual growth rate of TFP change during 2005-2013 have been 4.8, 3.8, 2.05, 3.1 and 4.7 percent for Mazandaran, Guilan, Golestan Khoozstan and Fars provinces, respectively. For Iran, also has been 4.3 percent. The most and least growth were for Mazandaran and Golestan Provinces. Differences in rough rice total factor productivity growth rates in the provinces were found to be explained primarily by differences in scale efficiency and technical efficiency. Scale elasticities for a year between 2005 and 2013 were between 1.13 and 1.12 for Mazandaran, between 1.12 and 1.13 (with fluctuation) for Guilan, between 1.14 and 1.13 for Golestan, between 1.18 and 1.19 for Khoozestan and between 1.14 and 1.18 for Fars. So, scale elasticities average between the sum of farms (between 1.12 and 1.18) shows that economics of scale exists in rough rice production technology. Scale elasticities for a year between 2005 and 2013 was between 1.24 and 1.27 for farm with size of less than 0.5 ha, between 1.17 and 1.22 for farm with size of between 0.5 and 1 ha, between 1.0.8 and 1.18 for farm with size of between 1 and 2 ha, between 1.05 and 1.13 for farm with size of between 2 and 3 ha and between 1.01 and 1.09 for farm with a size of more than 3 ha.
    Conclusions
    With the assumptions that rough rice production technology is similar in all provinces, approximately, differences between provinces in scale elasticities are about the size of the farm. That is, smaller farms in comparison with larger farms have more economics of scale. Finally, it can be noted that by increasing in size of farms, we can increase technical efficiency and TFP of rice production.
    Keywords: Allocative efficiency, Econometrics approach, Scale economics, Scale efficiency, Technical efficiency
  • Zahra Nematollahi, Seyed Mojtaba Mojaverian, Masoud Hosseinzadeh Pages 218-226
    Introduction
    Attention to rural development than urban development in the third world not because of the majority of the population in rural areas, but also because it is the final solution to the problem of urban unemployment and decreasing the population density metropolis, development and improvement of the rural environment. Rural tourism potentially can be considered as fundamental approaches in sustainable rural development. This study, using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is trying to prioritize the factors that affecting rural tourism in Mazandaran province whit scientific and practical point of view, then the best rural areas of the province identify and rank according to experts.
    Materials And Methods
    The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), introduced by Thomas Saaty (1980), is an effective tool for dealing with complex decision making and may aid the decision maker to set priorities and make the best decision. By reducing complex decisions to a series of pairwise comparisons, and then synthesizing the results, the AHP helps to capture both subjective and objective aspects of a decision. In addition, the AHP incorporates a useful technique for checking the consistency of the decision maker’s evaluations, thus reducing the bias in the decision-making process. The AHP can be implemented in three simple consecutive steps: 1) Computing the vector of criteria weights. 2) Computing the matrix of option scores. 3) Ranking the options.
    Results And Discussion
    The results and findings of this study showed that criteria related to infrastructure have the highest priority in terms of tourists and then cultural and social attractions, standards of facilities and tourist services and religious, historical and natural attractions is ranked. Incompatibility coefficient obtains less than 0.1, which indicates consistency in judgments. The results of prioritizing the following criteria shown; According to the provincial rural tourism security was the highest priority, weighing 0.077. The sanitary facilities of the path to the village, cleaning, environment and facilities, easy access road, holding traditional ceremonies and Accommodation in rural homes are ranked by the weight of 0.075, 0.066, 0.063, 0.063 and 0.062 in the second to sixth. The least important in rural tourism was the density of tourists and historical sites, by weight 0.022 and 0.037 respectively.
    Then, to rank the target villages of rural tourism in the province, villages divided in the three villages, according to experts of the Cultural Heritage, Tourism and Handicrafts, including East villages, Galoogah, Behshahr, Nekah, Miandorood and Sari, central villages, including Savadkuh, Ghaemshahr, Jouibar, Babol, Babolsar, Fereydunkenar, Mahmudabad, Amol and Nour and villages in the West, including, Ramsar, Tonekabon, Abasabad, Chalus and Noshahr. Then, priorities that the region was carried out by rural tourism are used to compare and rank the three villages. For this purpose, the opinions of 11 experts and scholars of Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism has been used. Thus, options (the target villages) have been compared and ranked according to expert opinions to that rural tourism prioritizes. Finally, the final weight and options priority have been made based on expert opinion and according to the priorities set by tourists. Based on expert opinion and according to the priorities set by the tourists, the highest priority to tourism was in west of the province and villages in Central and eastern provinces are the next priorities respectively.
    Conclusion
    Rural tourism potentially can be considered as fundamental approaches in sustainable rural development. This study, using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is trying to prioritize the factors that affecting rural tourism in Mazandaran province. The results and findings of this study showed that criteria related to infrastructure have the highest priority in terms of tourists and then cultural and social attractions, standards of facilities and tourist services and religious, historical and natural attractions ranked. Based on expert opinion and according to the priorities set by the tourists, the highest priority to tourism was in west of the province and villages in Central and Eastern provinces respectively are the next priorities. Thus, according to the results, equipping tourist attractions to levels of health services, providing facilities and financial resources to equip and organize existing settlements is suggested.
    Keywords: Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Mazandaran, Rural development, Rural tourism