فصلنامه تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال هفتم شماره 26 (زمستان 1395)

One of the main issues and challenges of managing health care system in Iran, is the issue of inequities in access to health services. Theoretical studies and empirical evidences indicate that implementation of the referral system and family physician plan is one of the main strategies to overcome inequity in the health and appropriate using of scarce resources in this area. But for successful execution of the family physician, it is necessary to identify important determinants affecting the decisions of participants in this plan using scientific methods and studying, and health policy makers should design a program pack that matches preferences of the target population to increase the possibility of its successful implementation. This study used Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) to identify important determinants affecting the decisions of physicians.
Results show that increase in net payments to general practitioners, nearer workplace to residence, allocation of quota to get the degree of expertise, existence of housing facilities and deadheading pay, less covered population and paying to physicians in less period of time may increase the utility and satisfaction of physicians and therefore, possibility of their participation and entry to the plan, as expected.
According to the results, the attribute "place of work" are significantly more important than the other attributes.

Over past decades there have been conflicting views on whether raising the minimum wage increases inflation. This study updates and expands earlier research into this subject and fills a void in the empirical literature by studying that the impacts of the minimum wage on inflation could be altered in the different economic situations. In framework of cost push inflation theoretical background, the direct and indirect effects of minimum wage changes on wage and inflation can be seen as taking place in several stages. The overall wage inflation outcome can, of course, also depend on the position of the economy in a particular stage of the business cycle. To examine this hypothesis, we used a Markov regime-switching model to study the impact of minimum wage increases on inflation over expansion or recession situations in Iran during the 1973- 2013 period. The comparison between a single-regime and regime shifting models provides the similar results for the sample period. The most important finding of this study is that there is no significant impact of minimum wage increases on inflation regardless of economic situations. However, the results show that the inflation shock positively impacts minimum wage in both models. In sum, our results provide a significant contribution to the empirical literature by verifying that the effectiveness of minimum wage on inflation is not dependent on the business cycle economic situation. The main policy implication for Iran's economy deriving from this study is that the minimum wages should be increased to compensate wage workers for real-wage decrease caused by inflation, without any concern about its inflationary effects.

The main objective of this study is: investigate the effect of government size on inflation rate in the 34 countries of the developing countries during the years 1998 to 2013. For this purpose, the index of total government spending as a percentage of GDP, used as government size and then the model of this study has been estimated by using the panel data technique.
The results of this study imply that the government size has had significant negative effect on the inflation rate and also the variables: liquidity growth rate, growth rate of import price and interest rate have had positive effect on the inflation. Furthermore, the growth rate of GDP, with a difference of degree has significant negative effect on inflation. Hence, the most important result of this study is the majority of the general government- spending in Developing countries has led to the Construction costs and investment in infrastructures that has strengthened. The supply side of the economy of these Countries that The origin of this effect can be the retarded economic structures of these countries.

In this study, the effect of changes fare on the rising of commuter’s motivation was evaluated to change travel time in Tehran subway at peak hours. The 432 sample of Tehran metro passengers who commutes in 6:30-9 am, was studied and their preference were asked. The basic problem in this article is that if changes fare could change the passenger’s behaviors? We used discrete choice models including Probit regression models to evaluate the changes fare and their effective factors. The results indicated that, Commuters who received allowance from their workplace willing to change their departure’s time. People with a flexible time schedule are not attracted by changes fare, they believe they receive few benefits from this shifting. Our results do not suggest that increasing the ticket fare during the morning peak is a good method. At first, our results indicate that people are more motivated in this study when rewarded rather than punished. Moreover, some passengers might decide to use a different mode of transportation for commuting instead of taking an earlier subway trip, which would be a negative result for morning transportation.

The main purpose of this study, is to evaluate the effect of diversion earnings forecast and earnings realized on returns stocks in Tehran Stock Exchange. In fact, this research aims to examine the diversion of earnings resulting from the diversion of corporates managers forecasts earnings, what impact these diversion of earnings have on the returns of stock price. To achieve this, 194 companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange selected in the period of 2005-2013.
In this study, two groups of companies experienced the highest returns and lowest returns over the period studied, have been selected. Multi-factor model of Fama and French (1993) was used as the theoretical basis. The results indicate that forecasts of companies have experienced highest returns in comparison with lowest returns are more cautious and accurate than prediction of their future earnings. Changes in earnings realized and Tehran Stock Exchange index returns have positive and considerable relationship with stock returns as well, but these relationships for companies with highest returns are stronger than companies with lowest returns.

The aim of this paper is decomposition of total factor productivity (TFP) growth to four factors technological progress, technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, scale effects in 21 manufacturing industries, using a panel data technique, during 2000-2011.Findings show that the production elasticity related to labor and capital is o.57 and 0.13, respectively and economy of scale is less than unit. Also, results indicate that productivity growth is positive only in 8 industries that include electronics, communications, paper, medical and optical industries. The decomposition reveals that, TP has been the main driving force of productivity growth- especially in chemical, non-metal mineral, primary metal, motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers- while negative efficiency changes, allocative efficiency and scales effects observed in certain industries have contributed to reduce average productivity growth.

Exchange rate is one of the key indicators affecting macroeconomic performance, and inflation is one of the most important indicators which represents the macroeconomic performance. The aim of this paper is to identify the relation between these two important economic variables. By using the model of structural time series and Kalman Filter algorithm the effect of exchange rate gap (the difference between official exchange rate and parallel market exchange rate) on inflation in Iran has been investigated during 1961- 2012. The results of this paper indicate that exchange rate gap has a significant positive impact on inflation in Iran, so that 1 percent increase in exchange rate gap lead to 3 percent increase in inflation in Iran. These results have approved the single currency policy to control inflation in the country.