فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 133 (تابستان 1395)

The aim of the study is to investigate the exchange rate volatility on the non-performing loans (NPL) from 2005 to 2013 in 18 selected banks. In the first step, effective variables on NPL have been categorized in two groups namely macroeconomic and specific variables. Based on various tests of specific banking and macroeconomic variables separately, the evidence gives assurance of research variables’ durability. The assessment of Econometric Model in Panel Data with fixed effect shows that economic growth variables have negative effect, however the real interest rate gap variables of formal/informal market and exchange rate volatility have positive effect on the dependent variable eventually. The investigation of the specific banking variables has also indicated that both deposits to expenditure, representing the bank efficiency, and burden coverage, showing the bank size, have negative and significant effect on (NPL). The coefficient for capital adequacy ratio is not significant, though.
Meanwhile, the exchange rate volatility variable is being extracted by Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) Model.

The relationship between human development and economic growth has always interested policy makers for various important reasons. The purpose of this study is to investigate the non-linear causal relationship between the human development and economic growth variables in Iran; however, since the time series may confront structural changes, there is always a possibility for a change of direction in this causal relationship. In this study, MSIAH(3)-VAR(3) model and time series data for GDP per capita have been used, also the new definition provided by the United Nations for Human Development Index has been implemented for HDI during 1973-2011. The results indicate that in all three regimes, there is a causal relationship directed from economic growth to human development; however only in the second regime, human development caused economic growth and in two other regimes human development indicators do not have significant effect on economic growth. In effect, when oil revenues increase and accordingly economic growth rises (in first and third regime), HDI, just as consumer goods, increases only by being purchased through government expenditure; thus, it is only in recession times that HDI, plays the role of a capital good and despite its costs and pertaining expenses, benefits the economy.

A variety of studies have examined the determining factors of household consumption, demonstrating that the most prominent factors are income expectations, socio-economic characteristics, and borrowing constraints of the household. However, the effect of spontaneous unemployment on household consumption is very important from welfare perspective: because a proper social security system can eliminate its adverse impacts. The question that we investigate in this study is how the consumption level of Iranian households, ceteris paribus, react to the shock of getting unemployed. To answer this question, we have created a panel data based on "Household Income and Expenditure Survey" by Statistical Center of Iran. Then, controlling for other factors, a difference in difference method is employed to evaluate the effect of a change in employment status of household head on household consumption. The results show that lower income households who experience unemployment of their heads significantly decrease their level of consumption. This result demonstrates a weakness of the country's social security system; for if it was efficient, unemployment shocks would not have such significant effect on consumption.

Competition has not been an easy task in the field of insurance. Despite the fact that in the recent decades there has been some regulatory changes, and regulators’ approach tends toward more competition and prudential regulation, the regulatory approach to insurance markets from around the world has led to engendering barriers for competition. In this paper, we shall try to examine various elements and factors which could improve or reduce competition in the insurance market; accordingly, we attempt to show that the insurance market is not excluded from competition and antitrust laws. Furthermore, to improve the efficiency and quality of services in the market, it should be directed to a more competitive insurance market through cooperation and integration at various levels and to a certain extent, reducing barriers to entry, reforming discriminatory regulations, reducing government intervention, increasing the role of the Competition Council and paving the way for the entry of foreign companies.

This study analyzes the effect of Aggregate Measurement of supportive policies on Urban Households’ Food Security Index in Iran by applying Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) for the period 1982 – 2012. In order to achieve this goal, Aggregate Households’ Food Security Index (AHFSI), Aggregate Measurement of Support (AMS), Inflation Rate and virtual variables for the targeted subsidy law period have been used. The results show that the Aggregate Measurement of Support has meaningful and positive effect on food security in both short-term and long-term. Also, the virtual variable for the targeted subsidy law period and inflation rate have a meaningful and negative effect on food security. Due to the fact that the targeted subsidy law has not have any positive impact on food production and consumption through the early years of its enactment, the agriculture sector in Iran, primarily requires a targeted support and accordingly calls for appropriate conditions for enactment of targeted subsidy law in order to mitigate its negative effects. Therefore, a constructive appraisal of supportive policies, with a view to developing agriculture sector, can increase the productive capacity and improve the marketing channels for agricultural products by providing security and encouraging investment in this sector; hence the improvement of food security in Iran.

Trips within the city arise from daily activities of citizens according to the type of work, education, shopping, recreation, etc. are placed in two categories: mandatory and optional trips. With respect to public transportation, especially metro and its impact in reducing gasoline consumption and urban traffic, this study, will evaluate social and economic factors affecting the selection of mandatory and optional trips, relying on passenger’s comments and by using binary logit models. In this regard the research question is: what are the economic and social factors affecting the selection of mandatory and optional trips by Metro. For this purpose, a questionnaire designed and distributed for passengers and after two rounds of pilot, during the four weeks, the number of 400 passengers in bus terminals adjacent to Sadeghiyeh metro station. The results of binary logit choice model shows variables the household employment, self-employed men and age have counter relation with mandatory trips and variables such as men lessee, level of education have a direct relation with mandatory trips by metro.

Investigating the efficiency of different economic sectors, especially the industrial sector, as well as the factors affecting the efficiency of this sector is one of the most important economic issues. Various methods are used to measure the technical efficiency, and the stochastic frontier production function analysis is one of them. In this method, by using econometric techniques, the efficiency border is estimated, with which the firm’s performance is compared. In this paper, by using data of the firms with 50 employees and more, for the period from 1994-Ç2011, the frontier production function has been estimated and the technical efficiency for each province has been identified. In addition, the effect of governmental management and ownership, as well as the number of active firms have been examined as three environmental variables influencing the inefficiency of these industries in the provinces of Iran. Thus, a comparative outline is sketched with regard to technical efficiency and factors affecting inefficiency in the country. The results showed that the average technical efficiency is estimated at 79.56%, while Tehran has the highest and Kohgiloyeh Boirahmad has the lowest average technical efficiency. The governmental ownership factor and number of firms have a positive effect, whereas the governmental management has a negative effect on technical efficiency in these industries.

The scientific researches have investigated the inefficiencies of government management and property. Economists and policy-makers maintain that privatization can serve to control such inefficiencies and even to inverse it. Some scholars, who have analyzed the consequences of privatization for various countries in terms of efficiency and equality, observed the positive impacts (for instance in the case of privatization in competitive markets) and negative impacts (such as privatization in infrastructures, like water); other scholars have investigated the distributive effects of privatization in terms of equality; others, through studying privatization attempted to answer this question that whether privatization alone can bring about positive impacts, or all the positive effects attributed to it results from its conjunction with other government policies. On the one hand, this study, based on the above three research types, attempts to investigate whether efficient privatization is predictable considering its relationships with other policies, specifically the competition promotion policy. On the other hand, this study focuses on the interaction between taxation and privatization, which has been neglected in most studies. The authors claim that promoting competition and improving taxation is of essential ends of an effective privatization, however the transfer of state-owned property to the private sector pertains to the short-run impact of privatization.