فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 81 (بهار 1396)

The main aim of this paper is to estimate the relationship between instability of GDP per capita and fluctuations in the oil terms of trade (oil shocks) and economic resilience. Moreover, we consider the stabilizing role of resiliency in reducing the positive relationship between oil and instability of the economic growth. A positive correlation between oil term of trade shock and instability of the economic growth has proven with using OPEC countries’ data during 1995-2013. Effect of net economic resilience on the instability of economic growth is negative. In addition, the evidence shows that net economic resilience decreases the effect of shocks in oil terms of trade (oil shocks). A resilient economy can mitigate a part of the negative impact of oil shocks on growth fluctuations. Thus, the governments can improve the economic conditions with boosting economic resilience through better monetary and fiscal policies. Increasing efficiency in economic policies will decrease uncertainty among households and firms and will increase government credibility and leads to a positive effect of oil resources on sustainable growth.

The critical role of banks in financial stability and their distinct nature compared to other industries within the economy necessitates an accurate and efficient supervisory in this field. A basic requirement for efficient supervision is supervisory authority independence from those under supervision, such that conflict of interest is prevented. Inspired by literature, to analyze the independence of the supervisory authority in Iran, the independence of the Iran Central Bank (CBI) from the banking industry is studied from three aspects: structural and organizational independence, financial and budgetary independence, and human resources independence. From the organizational and structural aspect, the role of the banking industry in the appointment of various organs and decision-making committees of CBI is examined. In the financial aspect, we first analyze how the remunerations of members of the CBI organs are determined. Then, according to the central bank's financial statements, benefit (loss) of the supervisory authority from the (un)healthy functioning of the banking industry, is analyzed. Finally, to study the independence of human resources, movement of personnel (known as "revolving door") and communications between managers and experts of the supervisory authority (CBI) and the banking industry will be examined. The literature on the independence of the supervisory authority shows that in many countries, various restrictions and transparency requirements are enacted regarding the movement of personnel between the supervisory authority and institutions under supervision. The development of private banks in Iran during the past two decades necessitates a careful study and implementation of international experiences in this regard.

This paper introduces a new approach to evaluating selected developing countries. In this study, we define two categories of outputs (desirable and undesirable) to measure the performance of the selected countries. Indeed, it is necessary to explore how to combine two separated efficiency measures in a unified structure. The conventional data envelopment analysis (DEA) may fail to identify decision-making units (DMUs) and as a result efficiency scores may not be meaningful, especially when the number of DMUs is insufficient. In this paper, a new approach is presented based on DEA and game theory to evaluate large-scale DMUs. For this purpose, the bargaining games as a cooperative game model are combined with the conventional DEA models. Moreover, DMUs do be are divided by different categories of measures in the competitive environment. The results show that China and Poland have conditions of maximum energy efficiency with using the integrated assessment model. Other countries have been qualified by a bargaining game, but they have not been a favorable outcome like as China and Poland.

Banking sector as one of the most important sectors in Iran’s economy plays a major role in general equilibrium and transmission of various shocks in the society. In this paper, to address the role of the banking system in the transmission of shocks, we design a DSGE Model with introducing interbank market and considering endogeneity of the default probability in banking sector and firms. Analyzing the effects of productivity and stock market shocks on real variables indicates that the adopted model is well-matched with theoretical expectations and Iran’s economic facts. The results of the model support the importance of the banking sector in the transmission of shocks and also confirm that central bank plays a critical role to mitigate the effects of the shock through injecting liquidity into the interbank market.

The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of rising commodity prices (bread, milk, water, electricity, and gas) on the welfare of urban household income. For this purpose, the compensating variation formulation is extracted in Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) framework. Moreover, the demand system is calculated based on AIDS parameters and applying SUR method. It is computed for three main income categories with using, income and budget data during the period 2010- 2013. The results suggest that compensating variation is positive for urban households, which means that the rising prices reduce urban household welfare in this period. The results also show that percentage of reduction in welfare due to rising commodity prices on lower-income groups is more than middle and higher-income groups.

Nowadays, banking system plays an important role in the economy. In fact, the banks are the service institution that their main task is collecting deposit and lending the credits. One of the principal challenges to the banking system is the improper allocation of credit, which induces credit diversion. The credit diversion occurs due to asymmetric information before and after the lending credit in the partnership and exchange contracts. In this study, we examine credit diversion in 32 areas within the bank A during 2007-2016 with a descriptive-analytical approach. The results show that over these years despite the increase in the number and amount of the credit, the number of cases of credit diversion without supervision greatly reduced.

The aim of this study is calculating and comparing the productivity of labor and capital in manufacturing industries of Iranian provinces during 2003-2013. In this context, the rate of fixed assets depreciation is calculated with using Statistical Center and Central Bank data, and then the capital stock is estimated by the perpetual inventory method. The production function of provinces is estimated with applying linear Cobb-Douglas production function and using econometric panel data method. Then, generalized productivities of labor and capital in manufacturing industries are calculated and compared in the provinces. The results of this study indicate that although in the early years, regional disparities in productivity of labor and capital are not significant, but over time, their variation range has increased, and provinces moved to more heterogeneity. However, the low level of productivity of labor and capital is a common feature of all provinces. Therefore, the policy recommendation of this study is planning for increasing the productivity of labor and capital of manufacturing industries in the provinces and distributing the resources according to possibilities and limitations of each province to decreasing the disparities and achieving to regional balances. This becomes more important, especially with beginning the sixth development plan.

Financial crisis outbreak imposed huge losses on banks and credit Institutions and caused higher liquidity risk on banks and credit institutions or even their bankruptcy. The main feature of these crises is low liquidity reserves of the banks. Recent empirical studies show that the economic conditions are also responsible for the rise of financial crises and liquidity risk in the banking system. In fact, banks’ liquidity risk are affected by economic conditions, alongside banks’ features. This paper tries to investigate the effects of macroeconomic factors on liquidity risk in a regression model using seasonal panel data and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS). The dataset includes 14 biggest banks for the duration of 1385q1 to 1392q4. The results show that, as expected, all selected economic and banking factors have significant effects on bank's liquidity risk; and since error correction terms are estimated 21%, it can be interpreted any short-term imbalance would disappear in each season.

By focusing on two major drivers of oil demand – i.e. oil price and technical progress – this article presents a thorough behavior analysis of energy-intensive manufacturing industries’ oil demand in European countries, which imported Iranian oil during 1980-2010. The growth accounting method and estimating parametric cost function are employed as analysis tools and the significance level of converted parameters are investigated with using Delta technique. The results show that studied industries have experienced technical progress during the examination period which resulted in reduced oil demand. It is expected that oil demand experiences the significant decrease in response to rising oil prices. Oil price and technical progress have positive impacts on average oil productivity (and thereby decreasing demand for oil). Furthermore, estimation of cross price elasticity indicates that rising oil prices lead to reduce oil demand and raw material and capital replace oil. In the studied industries, reduced oil demand as a result of rising oil prices (through between factor substitution and oil efficiency)and technical progress implies the restriction of Iran's oil revenues, as well as officials and policy makers, focus on the development of oil products, petrochemicals, electricity, and natural-gas export.