نشریه مدلسازی اقتصاد سنجی
پیاپی 3 (زمستان 1393)

Although free trade will leads to development of comparative advantages, increases efficiency of production factors and creates wealth in the society, but trade barriers remain to use, partially in developing countries. Trade barriers can be divide in two forms of Tariff and non-tariff barriers. Which non-tariff barriers are low transparent and cause more restricting effects. Since Iran is about to join the world trade organization (WTO), it is necessary to evaluate the effects of these barriers on Iran’s trade flow. Due to the growing global demand for industrial goods, in this study the effects of trade barriers on export and import of manufacturing industries have been tried to evaluate. For this purpose, by providing a theoretical framework, first by using of Johanson – Juselius method long-term relationship of import demand and the supply of industrial exports of Iran in the period of (1359-1389) (1978-2010) are estimated. And then by using of error correction model, short-term relationship of import demand and the supply of industrial exports of Iran in the same period are estimated too. The result show that in the long term. Tariff and non-tariff barriers effect on Iran’s industrial trade. However, in the short-term these barriers have no effects on the import and export sector of Iran’s industry.

Calculating rate of efficiency and Determing effective factors in the bank’s competitive environment, because of numerous definitions of inputs and outputs is complex. therefore, due to the different orientations, Intermediate approach via income-based attitude in adapting to the interest-free banking operations have been selected. after that, by using data envelopment analysis method, the efficiency of sixteen public and private banks in variable return state and with the input Oriented assumption have been computed. Then by applying a random effect of panel data model this research investigates the internal and external determinants of banks efficiency. Accordingly to the results, the average efficiency of country’s banks during the Investigation Period is up to 83 percent. based on results of fix effects model , credit risk factor, the share of banks based on the from the per capita deposits(branch)in deposit market, has a negative effect on the efficiency ,and there is a significant and positive relationship between the numbers of ATMs, consumer price Index and dummy variables represent the private and specialized banks.

This study using the CIA model to compare the welfare cost of seigniorage tax and consumption tax for the Iranian economy. Therefore, after a brief discussion of the CIA model is a perfect representation of the model. Finally, the model is calibrated for the economy and the results of the calibration is the following: In the short-term and emergency situation the government needs to finance its budget deficit, welfare cost of finance through seigniorage tax less than the cost of finance welfare through consumption taxes. Long-term and stable situation, seigniorage tax replacement strategy rather than consumption taxes impose costs on society's welfare.

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of different aspects of ICT on poverty in selected middle-income countries. The required data for the period 2003-2013 has been extracted from official and credible sources and model is estimated using the panel data technique, The poverty headcount ratio selected as the dependent variable and ICT variables such as the infrastructure sector including fixed and mobile phone subscribers the spending on hardware and software and benefit sector including broadband Internet subscribers and the percentage of people who use the Internet, as well as, the control variables including the Gini coefficient , inflation rate, the globalization index and corruption index has selected as explanatory variables. The results show that the net effect of ICT variables has a negative effect on poverty indicator and the final effect of ICT variables depend on complementary factors. This means that educational expenditures per capita and GDP per capita accelerate the impact of ICT on poverty. Control variables including corruption index and globalization index and inflation index have a negative and significant impact and Health expenditure per capita variable and index of GINI have a positive and significant impact on poverty.

The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is an effective factor on health in host country. The FDI has direct and indirect channels on health in host country. In direct channel, if the foreign firm paid high wage to labor forces and provided them by social services, then the health of host country improves. In indirect channel, the FDI increases the income of host country then this effect increases the demand for health services and finally it improves the public health. The object of this paper is the analysis of FDI impact on public health in OPEC countries. We used the DOLS method for panel data in the period of 1980-2013. The results show the FDI and other factors include economic, environmental and social factors have significant and positive long-run effects on public health in these countries. Therefore, the FDI attraction is an important factor in improving of health in OPEC countries.

It is the purpose of this paper to evaluate and compare the return to scale and technical change of manufacturing sector subsections of Iran. Therefore, Diewert-Fox model and Törnqvist index and the data of 23 selected manufacturing industrial sectors during 1997-2010 are used. The results show that most of the selected sectors have increasing returns to scale and based on these results, there is potential of efficiency improvements in manufacturing industries. Furthermore, most of these industries experience significant technical change which implies that the growth of manufacturing industries has been driven by both increasing returns to scale and technical progress.

Recent developments in the econometric theory lead to presenting estimators which are appropriate for the small samples and time series with the convergence relation. Compared with other cointegration vector estimators, DOLS method used in small samples and prevents the creation of simultaneity bias. It has normal distribution and can include variable with different cointigration order in the estimation process. This paper reviews the characteristics of a panel dynamic ordinary least squares method employs it in the form of an econometric model of the effects of gray economy (corruption is proxy for gray economy) on the human development index in the 9 developing countries over the period 2002 to 2013. The results show that the impact of corruption index and inflation on the human development index is negative in the studied countries.