فصلنامه نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
سال چهارم شماره 2 (پیاپی 13، تابستان 1396)

The impact of effective factors on healthcare expenditure will be appeared in the public health. Providing health services, such as health centers, is an effective factor in controlling the. Given the high potential of medical knowledge in our country, the existence of equipped health centers can lead policy makers and economic actors to health tourism industry. Therefore, examining the effective factors on health expenditures can be a new perspective for experts. Thus, this study compares the Spatial Error Model (SEM), Mixed Regression - Spatial Autoregressive Model (MR-SAR), and Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) with consideration of their geographical spatial dependency, in order to identify the most appropriate model that can explain the effective variables on per capita healthcare expenditures during 1995-2014. The results indicate that per capita income and life expectancy have positive impacts on per capita healthcare expenditures and the effects of foreign aid and population on per capita healthcare expenditures are negative. Moreover, the impact of spatial dependency on healthcare expenditures has been confirmed and the Spatial Durbin Model has been selected as the best model.

The optimal structure of capital and selection of the proper mixture of debt and capital is one of the most important strategic decisions in any firm that deeply affects its performance. Because of dominant role of banks in debt financing for corporates in Iran, this research is focused on the way that the performance of companies in automotive industry can be affected by debt creation via bank finance. The variable of bank finance has been measured with two indexes of ratio of loan to debt and the ratio of loan to equity of firm and variable of firms’ performance also has been measured with two groups of indexes as profitability and stability of profitability. Using the panel data model with the annual data of 26 automobile and auto parts manufacturers during the years of 2001-2014, a variety of models were evaluated. The results of study show that there is not any significant relationship between the loan to debt ratio of company and profitability indexes (except the index of return on equity); but there is a significant and negative relationship between the loan to equity ratio and profitability indexes. Based on the results, lending more to the companies not only do not improve their performance, but also have negative effects when the loan to equity ratio is in high level.

Given the economy’s high dependence on oil revenues combined with oil influential role in government budget in Iran, we seek to examine the impact of oil revenue shocks on Iran’s economy by means of a DSGE-BVAR model. We are further motivated by the observation that government has been less likely to cut current spending in response to frequent plunges in oil revenues. This, in return, has led to higher macroeconomic instability in times of oil price volatility. We identify technology shocks, oil revenue shocks, foreign exchange rate shocks and money supply shocks as the main sources of business cycle fluctuations. After estimating the model with quarterly data over the period 1990:2-2015:1, the analysis of impulse response functions indicates that production and inflation responses to shocks confirm factual data and the relevant theories. In response to monetary and oil revenue shocks, output rises in the short term; while it falls as result of a surge in the general price level. Foreign exchange rate shock generates a decrease in output but it increases in the long run, due to higher investment. Moreover, positive monetary, foreign exchange rate and oil shocks generate an increase in inflation; while technology shocks induce a decrease in inflation.

Social welfare is one of the suitable criteria for macroeconomic situation reviewing and policymakers performance evaluating in society. Therefore, social welfare convergence of regions is an important issue. Owing to the increment of social classes’ gap and inequality in society, politicians consider the social welfare convergence of regions to tackle the mentioned problem. To this end, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the convergence of social welfare of Iranian provinces with using spatial STAR nonlinear techniques during 2000-2013. The results indicate that there is a convergence between provinces that they have not spatial effects. In addition, the convergence speed in this group of provinces is equal to 3.1289. Also, the results indicate that there is not a convergence between the provinces that they have the spatial effects.

In recent years, the increase of fuel price and implementation of targeted subsidies have the different effects on the economic sectors and especially on the road transportation sector. For this, the road transportation sector has been considered as main sectors in transportation system. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of fuel price on the road transportation demand during 1997-2014. The empirical econometric model has been estimated by TVP and Kalman-Filter algorithm. The main findings of this study reveal that the fuel price and age of transportation system have negative and other explanatory variables such as national income and numbers of vehicles have positive and significant impact on the road transportation in Iran during the period of study. Moreover, the targeted subsidies rule in Iran has led to decrease of road transportation shipment. Hence, the effects of new vehicle and national income are positive in final state and time varying situations.

In economic literature, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the balance of payments is highly important. Tourism is one of the main sub-sections of the balance of payments. Using vector error correction model, this paper identifies the effect of exchange rate changes on the balance of payments by assessment the existence of J-Curve in tourism industry over the period of 1995 to 2013.The results confirm the existence of J curve in Iran's tourism balance of payments. It means that exchange rate appreciation has reduced tourism revenues in the first period but after six periods it has increased tourism revenues and improved its balance of payments. Also revenue of this industry is over than it`s expenditures. In other word, the shock on the exchange rate, has improved tourism balance of payments after a period of deterioration. Also, the results of the data analysis of export-import and balance of payments functions confirms that export function has highly been effected by changes in exchange rate. In other word 0.89 of export function change`s is explained by exchange rate`s changes. Import function has also highly been effected by changes in exchange rate. It means 0.249 of import function change`s is explained by exchange rate`s changes. Furthermore, tourism balance of payments is more sensitive to changes in Iran’s revenues. On the other hand 0.395 changes in balance of payment has explained by domestic revenue`s changes.

The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of privatization of public services on public economic efficiency and revenue. In this analysis a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is employed. The results show that if public service privatization leads to deregulation of market prices in this sector then dead weight loss would be eliminated and consequently public efficiency and revenue would increase. If privatization leads to an increase in productivity of public services, the raise in public efficiency and revenue will be higher. These results would hold even in the presence of direct cash subsidy payments to households. However these results are sensitive to our assumptions in the model. In particular if we drop the usual neoclassical assumption of perfect factor mobility we would observe sector specific results in the oil and gas and public service sectors, in which public economic efficiency and revenue would be substantially lower. That is privatization of public series does not result in higher efficiency if the neoclassical assumptions are not held.

Following oil price shocks, “Expenditure Effect” is one of the most important and influential channel affecting the oil exporting economies. The magnitude of the structural shock effects on oil exporting economies depends on the type of the shock and government expenditure in the economy. In this study, using quarterly data from 1988 to 2014 of Iranian economy and global oil market, first, in line with kilian (2009), supply and demand shocks are disentangled and identified and then, using a dynamic factor model (with the Bayesian approach), which is unlike the standard autoregressive models not suffered from the reduction of degree of freedom due to inclusion of new variable, the impacts of oil price shocks on relevant expenditure variables are investigated. The findings indicate that the response of public and private expenditure variables to the structural shocks in the global oil market is different. The positive global real activity shock affects domestic economy through two channels, an increase in oil revenues, and a boom in the domestic economy which increases private consumption, including durable and non-durable goods, services, total import, and total investment. The effect of this shock on public consumption is instantaneously negative and it becomes statistically insignificant after one period. Since the impacts of oil market-specific shock only increase oil revenues, it affects public consumption positively and statistically significant but do not affect private consumption and total investment. The effect of this shock on total import is instantaneously positive although it dies out after one period.