نشریه مدیریت بحران
سال ششم شماره 1 (پیاپی 11، بهار و تابستان 1396)

Population growth, changing lifestyles, increased diseases, and natural and unnatural accidents are the cause of growing importance of health care chains. On one hand, the importance of blood as a rare and crucial stuff and on the other hand, the specific conditions of transportation and maintenance make researchers to be challenged in recent years. The importance of this area especially in a crisis and a severe shortage of blood can be increased. In this paper, a mathematical model of a closed-loop blood supply chain under uncertainty is proposed, in which reverse logistics and emergencies situation are also to be considered. Due to the complexity in solving the proposed model, after proposing accurate method to validate the model, a hybrid algorithm based on genetic algorithm (GA) and simulated annealing (SA) is used. Then, the validation of this hybrid algorithm is evaluated in comparison with the results of GAMS IDE/Cplex software in solving small, medium and large-sized problems. Finally, the results of the sensitivity analysis are presented.

Mountainous regions in the northeastern of Kerman with recreational-residential land use, face severe tectonic activities causing emersion of numerous faulty cliffs, leading to rock fall hazard. When rock fall happens, the main threat posed against exposed elements at risk is to what distance rock pieces will travel, therefore the susceptibility zoning must take into account the region susceptibility to this factor and then through evaluating the run-out of the falls, the zones should be classified into high, medium and low sensitivity. This study tries to prepare susceptibility map as stated earlier. The first step is to identify factors that causes rock fall events, then the importance of each factor in the region has to be determined by using AHP and bivariate statistical method, and finally zoning map of rock falls will be prepared as the most common type of hillside movements. The highest frequency of rock falls in the region have been seen on the faulty slopes, in the N-W and West directions and on 15-30 degrees slopes. The map created by bivariate statistical method contained most rock fall areas and also where rock falls had travels on them, however, due to the manipulation of the region, it is impossible to determine the last place that falling pieces had reached before; so the map does not provide full information. Thus for completing susceptibility map, empirical models such as Reach Angle and Shadow Angle approaches were used to estimate the maximum run-out distance that falling pieces may travel. Based on the final map, recreational roads are at average risk and climbing routes are at high risk.

Since start of his settlement in the earth, man always has faced the environmental threats. Enhancement of tools and technologies, not only gives man not-a-full success over nature, but increases the variety of crises. Anyway, man has sometimes suffered many damages caused by natural disasters or faced some crises. Rural regions, because of more relation and contact with natural environment, poverty, social condition, etc. are more vulnerable and susceptible to natural crises. The main point in this respect is how to face with crises which is called “crises management”. Therefore in the present study, after measuring the external, social and economic vulnerabilities, planning of earthquake crises management is carried out for rural areas of Shahrekord, Iran. The research is of applied type and in descriptive-analytical method. In order to collect the required data, library as well as field studies were used. In the field method, 276 questionnaires were filled out by families resident in the sample villages using random and cluster methods. SWOT was used to determine the intended strategy and T-test was used to test the assumptions. Results of T-test showed that the socio-economic vulnerability of the mentioned rural area is “high” during the crises and the spatial-external vulnerability is “less than medium”. Also the results of evaluation matrix of external and internal factors, showed that adjusted scores of internal and external factors are 2.37 and 2.51, respectively. Thereafter “revision strategy” was determined as the appropriate strategy for planning.

The purpose of this study is to assess safety features of Shahrekord based on passive defense, risk zonation of the city, the distribution pattern of urban infrastructures and decision-making organizations. This study is of applied type and its case study is Shahrekord city. The city vulnerability is case of war, is evaluated by means of spatial indices affecting safety. In order to analyse the data, firstly a comparison and evaluation were carried out on urban criterias and sub-criterias modeled by ANP in Decisions Super software. Then importance coefficients of all main criterias were evaluated by AHP model and Choice Expert software. After evaluation of criterias and sub-criterias, distance to those which closeness or deviation from them are important, were estimated using ArcGIS software. After these processes, Shahrekord was classified into 6 classes based on vulnerabilities (very high risk, high, moderate, modest, low and very low).

One of the new incident management methods to apply in social service organizations, is using the same characteristics seen in highly reliable organizations such as airlines, nuclear power plants and the air traffic control. To utilize incident management in these organizations, some activities are required to achieve a high level of reliability whom finding is the very goal of this research. In this research at first characteristics of organizations with high reliability are presented, and then some required activities that are necessary to implement these characteristics in electricity distribution companies as a social service organization are put forward. These activities include high level of interaction, high transmission speed, comfort, safety, learning, teamwork, talent management, organization of chaos, knowledge management, trust, job rotation, loyalty, work difficulty, experience survive and dignity. Information collecting tools were questionnaire and interview surveyed among a sample society of Senior Managers of Iran electricity distribution companies. The study method is descriptive-exploratory and is with applied objective.

Today , because of the complexities of cyberspace and its influence on many other fields from the national security viewpoint, the necessity of monitoring systems with cyberspace routing approach and also a global view of all its dimensions, including cultural, social, political, economic, security, military and science and technology seems more urging than ever. With the development of database systems and high volume data stored in these systems, there is a need for an instrument to process these stored data and information obtained from this process and aslo making them available to users. Ever increasing development of the communication tools in the field of information and communication technology, and the need to create intelligence dominance over this area toward prevention of surprises in crises encounterings, and considering the volume, velocity and variety of data in social networks, proves the neccessity for development of Big Data technology strategies in social network analysis. It is worth noting that this concept cannot in any way be dealt with traditional analytical methods and should modern technologies should be utilized instead. Since one of the main topics in the field of Big Data and data mining methods for remediation of achieving added value in the field is massive data, this study tries to identify the analysis and prioritization technologies needed to develop strategies of Big Data technology in social network analysis to predict the occurrence of crisis. According to the subject and objective of the study, type of applied-development research is used. The method of using quantitative methods and information gathering through a panel of experts and questionnaire fill-out, has been applied to a population of 20 elite students in the field of ICT and analysis utilizes big data strategy by means of Likert scale to evaluate priorities.

Earthquakes of less than 5 Richter magnitudes are not dangerous to buildings and even rural buildings are less impaired in this regard. While earthquakes with a Richter magnitude of between 5 to 6 in rural areas and 6 to 7 in urban areas are very disastrous. Due to the specific situation of Iran from the tectonic viewpoint, it can be argued that all faults are seismically active in the country. So that losses and casualties could be occurred every year specifically in rural areas. Therefore this natural phenomenon happens in Iran and requires preparation for resisting, identifying, and risk management. This research has been done with the aim of investigating the amount of risk and estimation of losses caused by earthquake in rural areas. The role of human factors, geology and geomorphology as effective factor in destruction and losses has also been analyzed. Participants of this study are rural district residents of Abarshiveh, Damavand located in Tehran province. It has 10201 population including 31 residential spots according to 1390 census. The method of research is descriptive analysis which is analyzed and studied using hierarchal model (AHP) as well as geographic information system (GIS). The results of the survey showed that 51.6 percent of the residential spots of the rural district are located within five kilometers from faults, where geologically and geomorphologically have high potential for earthquake. If an earthquake happens, the majority of causalities will be 1037 in day time and 1075 at night time in residential and nonresidential structures. Also 657 of residential and nonresidential structures will be ruined. Rehabilitation and reconstruction of these structures will impose a damage of three hundred billion Rials on the economy of the country.

One of the physical form problems in rural settlements, is inappropriate resistance of residential buildings against natural disasters. After the landslips of 1977 in the Rowshanaq village of Ardebil province, its geographical location was moved and post-disaster houses were erected for victims, but those houses were altered vastly. This paper aims to assess the architectural quality of post-disaster houses and their further attachments. In this regard, cross sectional survey-descriptive method will be used for analyses of 8 randomley selected families. The survey has been done by interviewing and answering to the five scales of Likert and the scores have been obtained by the analysis of descriptive statistics. It was revealed that post-disaster houses do not suffice to satisfy all the needs of users. According to the survey, original plans of post-disaster houses scored 108 out of 240 in climatic component quality and got 109 scores out of 320 in architecture quality, so were appraised as weak; however modified plans were appraised as mediocre by getting 136 scores out of 240 in climatic component and 160 scores out of 320 in architecture component quality. The weaknesses can be improved by corrective actions like: consideration of climatic and social requirements in designings, strategic planning and organizational design approach, etc

Iran is known as a country with high seismic activities, very large earthquakes with long return periods, wherein the absence of earthquake in an area doesnt indicate permanent stability. Referring to earthquake zoning map of Iran, it is evident that more than 90% of the area of this country rests on the earthquake risk zone. In this context, the evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of different regions of the country in order to reduce the vulnerability of urban communities should be of high priority.
This research is an applied type one and done in analytical method. in addition to introduce the Vulnerability concepts , we used a variety of quantitative and qualitative parameters, on the basis of multi-criteria decision making approach and network analysis process (ANP) assessment of the seismic vulnerability of Najaf Abad. Vulnerability analysis conducted by AHP model and the results of this model are also presented, as well as comparing the results from the ANP and AHP models.
With respect to the vulnerability zoning map of the city, around 30% of developed area of the town is within high and very high vulnerability range and 37% of the town has a medium vulnerability. Finally through overlaying the population distribution map on the vulnerability map it was concluded that more than 51000 individuals are in the high and very high vulnerability zones. Because of the interdependence between the criteria and sub-criteria, the results of ANP is more logical and better adjusted between the two methods with the same conditions.

One of the most important factors causing flood and related causalities is flood plain encroachment and inappropriate land use type. The flood zonation is one of the management tools for predicting the severity of losses caused by flood in order to control them. The main purpose for this study was impact assessment of land use planning scenario on flood inundation extent and losses caused along a 21 km reach of the Gorganroud river main channel within the Bustan dam basin. To this end, the basic data required by the model such as geometric properties and cross-sections (at 316 locations) of the river channel, roughness coefficients estimated by the Cowan method and peak discharge of hydrographs calculated by the Mod-Clark conceptual distributed method were entered to HEC-RAS hydraulic model. After calculation of the water surface profile by the HEC-RAS model, flood inundation extent for 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 – year return periods and two conditions of current land use and land use planning scenario was calculated using the HEC-GeoRAS software and flood risk zonation was done for 5 classes of risk. Results of statistical test showed that the flood risk zones decreases significantly in case of scenario planning for all return periods (p

The mountainous parts of Tehran province is located on the formations where are susceptible to landslides and if the landslide occurres in these areas, we will be facing the irreparable effects in various aspects. The purposes of this study are investigation and analysis of landslide in Tehran province and zonation of those areas where are susceptible to landslide. This zonation is done by using 8 quantitative and qualitative indicators, including geology, elevation, slope, aspect, distance from the faults, distance from the rivers, land use and average annual precipitation as the factors in the occurrence of landslide in ArcGIS software. The result of the present study showed that about 13.31 percent of the study area is located in high and very high zones of potential vulnerability, 13.71 percent of the study area is located in moderate zone of potential vulnerability, and about 72.94 percent is located in low and very low zones of potential vulnerability as well. After conducting field observations of landslide-prone areas and comparing it with the zonation map, accuracy and efficiency of fuzzy model will be verified. High and very high zones of potential vulnerability are mainly foothills and mountainous areas of Tehran Province. We considered high vulnerability due to topography and human factors. However, risk of landslides morphology seems to be a function of slope, indicating the role of slope in landslide occurrence.