فصلنامه جغرافیا و پایداری محیط
پیاپی 22 (بهار 1396)

Energy, as one of the most important environmental and economic sustainable development indices, is affected by the conditions of climate change. In addition, they are considered as the main factors of increase or decrease of fuel consumption and energy and the changes of cooling and heating degree-days. The quality controlled daily temperatures data of 44 synoptic stations across the country (1976-2005), as well as RCM simulations over the CORDEX were explored to evaluate the potential changes in heating and cooling degree-days due to climate change on Iran. Downscaled output of three RCM models of CNRM¡ EC-Earth and GFDL, with the spatial resolutions of 0.44 degrees under two emissions trajectories (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5), are applied in this regard. The model outputs simulate the increase of cooling demand in the horizons of 2020-2020 and 2040-2050. The highest increase is expected in the regions of the southern shores of the south and especially in the southeastern part of the country and in the central and milder parts of the north coast. It is expected to stabilize and reduce the need for cooling in the Alborz and Zagros ridgetop. In spite of the reduction in heating demand for the country, the horizons are foreseen. The highest decrease is expected in the mountainous regions of the Alborz, Zagros and Azerbaijan, and it is expected to stabilize and increase the need for heating in the southern and southern regions of the country, and it will be localized in the center and north coasts.
Conversely, heating need decreases in RCPs 8.5 at future years GFDL models output more than other models. Totally, the results represent that the need for cooling (increasing min 23% and max 47%) will be increased and heating needs (decreasing min 9% and max 17%) will be decreaseed in the last two cuts the horizons 2020 to 2030 and the 2040 to 2050 in both emissions trajectories RCPs 4.5 and 8.5
Extended Abstract
1-Energy, as one of the most important environmental and economic sustainable development indices, is affected by the conditions of climate change. In addition, they are considered as the main factors of increase or decrease of fuel consumption and energy and the changes of cooling and heating degree-days. Generally, the need for heating and cooling by definition is the sum of difference between mean daily temperatures from a given threshold in certain periods of the year which is expressed in degree-days. Generally, if the average air temperature exceeds 21 degrees Celsius threshold value, the need to cool the environment will be created that day. If the average air temperature is less than 18 degrees Celsius threshold, on that day will need to warm the environment.
2- The quality controlled daily temperatures data of 44 synoptic stations across the country (1976-2005), as well as RCM simulations over the CORDEX were explored to evaluate the potential changes in heating and cooling degree-days due to climate change on Iran. In the study, two types of data, observed and simulated data, (past and future) are examined. The observational data is considered with past data CORDEX database from 1976 to 2005. The reason for the 30-year period has been related to following the principles of parametric data and fact of longevity or base on period of CORDEX data (1951 to 2005). Downscaled output of three GCM model of CNRM¡ EC-Earth and GFDL, with the spatial resolutions of 0.44 degree under two emissions trajectories (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5), was applied in this regard. Post processing error of the model was used To moderate. In general, the mechanism of action of regional circulation model (RCM) is calculated using change factor in this case such as the difference or monthly ratio of simulations of regional circulation model in the future with the last period for heating and cooling degree-days which will be added to the data period last observation stations.
3-The analysis results of the cooling degree-days (CDD) show that generally 65.9 percent of the stations have experienced a significant increase (in 0.95 sig level), 29.6 percent of the condition with no significant process and 4.6 percent with decreasing process. This change started in 1996 in the country, according to studies by the homogeneity test by Petit test. Regarding heating degree-days (HDD), generally, 56.8 percent of the stations observed a significant decrease (in 0.95 sig level) and 29.6 percent with no significant process. The downtrend at average form is calculated with the amount of Sens Slope 7.5 percent in the whole country. This change stated 1997 in the country, according to studies by the homogeneity test by Petit test. . Model outputs show that CDD will be increased in country especially in south, southeast, central and southwest of country in both RCP. The EC-Earth output under the trajectory of 8.5, indicates a further increase in cooling needs for the horizon in 2040 to 2050. Three models output, show that HDD will decrease all over the country, especially in the highlands, Alborz and Zagros Mountainous. Conversely, heating need decreases more, according to the GFDL models outputs. The results represent an increase in the need for cooling and heating needs of the country in the last two cuts of the Horizon from 2020 to 2030 and the 2040 to 2050 in both emissions trajectories RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Overall, in the extreme condition in the decade of 2040 and 2050, about 13 percent of the area of country (approximately 297 thousand square km) will pass from the mean line. This suggests that reducing the need for heating will be more than of increase cooling needs. Overall, major changes in the temperature status of the country will occur in cold seasons.
4- This study was based on data analysis of observed and simulated extreme values of temperature indicated that heating and cooling degree days of the country is changing. So, the degree-days of heating and heating needs are reduced, and degree-days cooling and the need for cooling is increasing. Of course, the changes in heating needs on the in 2020-2030s and 2040-2050s will be more than changes of cooling need. Leading the constraints and opportunities are created that can be cited to reduce the need for fossil fuels and the need for electrical power in the cold season.

Currently, desertification phenomenon is being spread throughout the world including Iran. This problem not only imposes the arid and semi-arid regions but also affects semi-humid regions. Desertification event is induced by both natural factor and improper anthropogenic activities. Therefore, combating desertification needs modeling the effective factors and characteristics. This study aims at evaluating desertification hazard using Iranian Model of Desertification Potential Assessment (IMDPA) model which is adapted to the holistic model. This research is conducted at Gandomban plain, Ghasr-e-Shirin, Iran. However, quantities evaluation of desertification hazard is carried out based on three main factors including climate, water, and geomorphology. The factors comprise 11 indices. Each index estimated, mapped and prioritized based on its weighted mean using Arc GIS software. The result explored that the study area can be classified into three classes including low (5.38%), moderate (72.53%) and high (22.08%) indicating moderate class for the study area. The effect of climate on desertification was found moderate, while water and geomorphology factors share severe development of desertification event. By and large, the prioritized indices were found deficit of groundwater, geological formation and electrical conductivity (EC), respectively. In contrast, sodium absorption ratio (SAR) and chloride were lower and neutral agents. It is concluded that the study area is suffering from desertification hazard inducing the shortcoming of groundwater phenomenon.

The rapid growth and development of the city of Ahwaz has been encountered with many problems, such as the formation of marginal areas without a wastewater treatment system, the existence of various types of industrial wastewater, agriculture and home around the Karoon, and the presence of an undesirable phenomenon of dust. Considering the urban development of this region, it seems inevitable. Accordingly, the present study aims to measure, analyze and prioritize the urban areas of Ahvaz in terms of flourishing components. The concept of urban flourishing has different components: productivity, infrastructure, quality of life, social inclusiveness and environmental sustainability, which is very important for the realization of urban development. The data and data required in this research were collected using a questionnaire and a statistical questionnaire. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS software, and GIS software was used to map the map. To determine the weight of the components, the comments of 30 of the experts were calculated using the APC method. The results of the Tapis model in Ahwaz, the 2nd and 1nd regions are fully flourishing, the 6th, 3rd and 8th regions are relatively prosperous, the 7th regions are in the low prosperity region, and finally the 4th area is in the category of urban flourishing. Are. Investigation of Pearson correlation coefficient between population dispersion and prosperity level in the city indicates that there is no effective relationship between the two variables.

Vegetation is one of the most important ecosystem components that is constantly being adapted or altered to the final balance under the influence of environmental factors. One of the most important signs of the health of the vegetation and the consequent ecosystem health is its ability to resilience after the removal of environmental turbulences. Although vegetation in arid and semi-arid areas has different methods for dealing with destructive forces, the continuity of these factors can disrupt the ability of vegetation to return to its original state after eliminating the destructive factors. The result will be the disease and, ultimately, the destruction of the ecosystem. Therefore, detection, prediction of ecosystem changes over time and management of such changes is of great importance. This research was carried out in the Namakzare Khaf watershed basin in South Khorasan Province with the aim of studying and qualitative determining of ecosystem resilience vegetation to severe changes in long-term precipitation and drought as environmental turbulences. For this purpose, the standardization of annual rainfall during the thirty-year period and the determination of the duration and severity of dry, wet and normal periods was performed with SPI method and then the ecological resilience of the vegetation was examined qualitatively based on the mean plot and Transformed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (TNDVI) variance. These changes were studied using landsat satellite images in the final growth season of vegetation. Results indicate the mean ability to resilience and restore vegetation in the study area after the elimination of severe to medium droughts. According to the results, the ecosystem health of the studied area was confirmed on the basis of vegetation resilience, despite being located in dry land and facing severe droughts with continuity of two years and continuation of rainfall reduction compared to the mean for 6 years.

With the rapid increase in urban population in the world and increasing concern about the environment, the challenge of creating a livable sustainable city was a priority for city planners; the idea of the Ecology is in response to these concerns. Ecology town or city ecological idea can be the last or continue to develop sustainable approaches to urban development within the framework of theoretical model. The aim of this study was to evaluate the development Ecology in Eastern Azerbaijan province within the framework of theoretical model of sustainable development. This study is a kind of descriptive and analytical one regarding the purpose of the application and to methods. The population includes 20 city of East Azerbaijan province which was based on the 2012 census. Three main components of ecological security, health, ecological environment and ecological industrial metabolism, are used to assess which were in the form of 24 indicators. ANP model is used to express the relative importance of each indicator. PROMETHEE V model is used to analyze the data. The results of network analysis (ANP) indicate that the indices covered, Indices X21(quantity of wheat in irrigated and rainfed) and X11(buried utility principle Percent) respectively, with points (0.059 and 0.056) canvas utmost importance in the development of the city. The results showed that The province of East Azerbaijan regarding the indicators of urban ecology, Miyaneh city, Sarab and Tabriz, Phi (0.369) Phi (0/338) and Phi (0.258) ranked first, second and third. Besides, KhodaAfarin with Phi (-0.448) is the poorest city in the province. It also suggests that the spatial distribution of cities in Gaia in Miyaneh city, Sarab and Tabriz are the closest towns to the net flow of optimum stability. Hashtrood, MALEKAN, Harris, Kaleibar, Ajabshir, ESCO, Charavimaq, Varzqan, Julfa and Azarshahr and in particular the Khoda Afarin are the farthest cities of the net outflow, having inappropriate stability required to be prioritized in future planning.

In order to evaluate the socioeconomic and ecological functions of a city, it is essential to quantify the pattern of the land. In this regard, the use of gradient analysis is also a very effective method. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to quantify the landform of Behbahan county using the combination of land metrics and gradient analysis. For this purpose, land use changes over a period of 14 years (2000-2014) were studied. Gradient analysis for two transects in the North South and East West were designed. Both the class and landscape metrics were calculated using a moving window. The results showed that during transects, in addition to land use changes, shape and density of the patches have changed and these changes are different in the two transects. Also, the results of the analysis in both transects in the class indicate that the patch density and edge density have increased towards the city center. The results of landscape metrics based on the items show that the distribution of land in 2014, distribution of agricultural and residential land, especially land, has more distribution levels; Behbehan is the county landscape. This reflects the development of urban and agricultural land and pasture land decreased in 2014 compared to 2000 is in the region. According to the trend of metrics, it can be said that the entire north-south transect of the east-west pattern is symmetrical.

As today entrepreneurship is regarded as the economic development engine, development planners and policy makers are going to improve entrepreneurship through different ways among the members of various communities. Due to the high capacity of tourism sample areas, Such as Ghori-Ghalhe Cave in attracting tourists, analyzing the effects of tourism on entrepreneurship index can lead to reinforcement of two key lever of development (Tourism and entrepreneurship) in host communities. This study is a descriptive-analytic research and, in terms of purpose, is regarded as an applied one. The statistical population is composed of all heads of households living in the rural town of Quri-Qalhe in which 200 samples were selected. The main research tool is an author-made questionnaire and its reliability and validity were proved in compliance with principles of scientific research. The results showed that five factors of economic effects, increasing the value of assets, environmental-infrastructure, culture and population are the most important geotourism effects on residents of the study area, being able to explain about %72 of the variance of dependent variable. The results showed that mean score of entrepreneurship among households studied is 3/32 which is higher than average. Finally, the results of final model of fitted structural equation for geotourism effect (as the independent variable of studdy) on entrepreneurship development (as dependent variable) among households of Quri-Qalhe showed that geotourism , at a confidence level of 99%, has a significant effect on the development of entrepreneurship and its indicators so that the total effect of geotourism on entrepreneurship in the study area is 0/475 with determination coefficient of 0.266.