- Volume:46 Issue:1, 2015
- تاریخ انتشار: 1394/10/10
- تعداد عناوین: 6
A Perfect Specialization Model for Gravity Equation in Bilateral Trade based on Production StructurePages 1-8Although initially originated as a totally empirical relationship to explain the volume of trade between two partners, gravity equation has been the focus of several theoretic models that try to explain it. Specialization models are of great importance in providing a solid theoretic ground for gravity equation in bilateral trade. Some research papers try to improve specialization models by adding imperfect specialization to model, but we believe it is unnecessary complication. We provide a perfect specialization model based on the phenomenon we call tradability, which overcomes the problems with simpler initial. We provide empirical evidence using estimates on panel data of bilateral trade of 40 countries over 10 years that support the theoretical model. The empirical results have implied that tradability is the only reason for deviations of data from basic perfect specialization models.Keywords: Bilateral Trade, Gravity Equation, Perfect Specialization, Tradability
Pages 9-20Beginning in the mid-1980s, the phenomenon of capital flight from developing countries received considerable attention in the economics literature. Capital flight destroys the domestic macroeconomic environment and decreases transparency and accountability. It restricts financial resources when a country is looking for economic growth and development. The purpose of this article is to measure the amount of capital flight in Iran during 1981-2012, and to investigate the long-run effects of estimated capital flight on the Iranian economic growth in this period. To do so, the amount of capital flight in Iran has been measured using World Bank (1985) and Erbe (1985) approach. Then, the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) procedure has been applied in order to estimate a growth equation. Results show that capital flight has a negative impact on economic growth in Iran.Keywords: Capital flight, Economic Growth, ARDL, Iran
Pages 21-32Energy has been the main pillar of the global growth and development. Amongst various sources of energy, oil has the largest share in the global energy consumption. As these energy reserves tend to decline, few regions, most notably the Middle East which has been at the forefront with the largest reserves, can fulfill the rising global energy demand. Even then, in view of its vast energy potential, this region has attracted the attention of the growing economies of the world. This paper intends to look at one of the significant producers in the Persian Gulf energy market, Iran, and its energy relations with the Asian giant, China, from the International Relations perspective. Having a wide variety of capacities, Iran-China relations in recent years has made special dynamics, so that in different fields, this relationship has been steadily expanding and deepening. One of the most important capacity building areas in Iran-China relations is energy. The area of energy certainly has played the most important role in the dynamics of these relationships. Potential opportunities of bilateral cooperation between Iran and China in the field of energy are wide, and in case of realization it can have positive consequences of the political and security.
The aim of this paper is to cover the current oil trade situation between the two countries as well as the existing problems that are limiting the growth of this relation such as international sanctions and at the end some suggestions in order to enlarge the trade between the two countries. In conclusion, we can say that a massive capacity on the basis of "energy" in relations between Iran and China have emerged that can be used to promote economic relations between the two countries in the framework of a comprehensive strategy that benefits both countries and the region. This Capacity must be accompanied with "mutual desire to take place. Especially noteworthy is that the existing capacities should not only be considered as "energy economy" and cooperation in the field of energy, but also should be seen as the overall framework of "security" and "Asian solidarity.Keywords: Iran, China, Oil Trade, Sanctions, Oil Export
Pages 33-42In economic theory, various determinants are considered to explore their effects on trade patterns. Accordingly, business cycles indicate turbulences in economic activities. Business cycles and their fluctuations cause a change in demand for goods and services from the other country then it can affect trade flows. In this study, by using a gravity model, we study the effects of business cycles on bilateral trade flows within Eurozone countries. In this regard, the challenge is that the countries in the region may be faced whit changes in their trade relation in directions whether parametric or non-parametric manners. To be evident, we have used we have used data from six Eurozone countries, namely Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece for the period of 1995-2013, and then estimate the model with a semi-parametric panel data approach. The empirical results have shown that business cycles explain trade relations non-parametrically in the region. The results imply a transparent unique exchange policy toward their mutual trade flows to avoid outliers in their economic relations.Keywords: Business Cycle, Bilateral Trade Flows, Gravity Model, Semi-Parametric Estimation, Eurozone Countries
Pages 43-56The present study has made an attempt to discuss the effects of exchange rate volatility and price expectation on maize imports in Iran from 1980 to 2013. In doing so, using the EGARCH technique for time series econometrics, price volatility variables for both exchange rate and final price have been calculated, and the time series for these variables have been extracted. Additionally, in regard to the expected import price, the related time series has been extracted using Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP).
The empirical results indicate that exchange rate volatility and price volatility have had no significant effects on maize import, which is due to the fact that maize is a basic commodity and is imported by the official currency, therefore domestic price volatilities and the exchange rate do not have significant effects on maize imports. However, by freezing the exchange rate and not allocating official currency, the possibility of the exchange rate volatility affecting maize imports exists and this issue could affect the whole countrys food security.Keywords: Exchange Rate Volatility, Price Expectation, Import, Structural Break, Maize
Pages 57-66Derivatives are alternative financial instruments which extend traders opportunities to achieve some financial goals. They are risk management instruments that are related to a data in the future, and also they react to uncertain prices. Study on pricing futures can provide useful tools to understand the stochastic behavior of prices to manage the risk of price volatility. Thus, this study evaluates commodity futures contracts by considering Ross (1995) one-factor future pricing model as a function of spot price, Gibson and Schwartz (1990) two-factor futures pricing model as a function of spot price and convenience yield and finally Schwartz (1997) three-factor futures pricing model as a function of spot price, convenience yield and instantaneous interest rate by adding jump to stochastic behavior of commodity spot price. For this purpose, it is assumed that spot price follows Jump-diffusion stochastic process with exponential probability distribution of jump domain. Finally, commodity pricing future relations in three basic models are presented as a function of above factor(s) and jump parameters by using Duffy-Pan-Singleton approach.Keywords: Futures Contract, Pricing, Jump-diffusion, Exponential Distribution