Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
Volume:6 Issue: 1, Spring 2017

In this paper we first intend to examine the probability of falling into the realm of child labor by using conditional probability theorem. Furthermore, we will compare the extent of each factor’s effect on boys and girls using a TOBIT regression model. Finally we will analyze aspects of Iran’s labor market to assess the future ahead of the children who work at present. As the results will show, the probability of not attending school conditional on being male is 0.081, whereas the same probability conditional on being female is 0.12. More probability scores are estimated in the paper. Moreover, the results from the TOBIT regression shows that in general boys are more affected than the girls by the same factors. Also, based on the macro statistics published by Iran’s Statistical Center, the graduation of numerous people from graduate schools combined with the low and slow rate of economic growth makes it quite difficult to find a decent work in the country. As a result, the skilled labor force will be content with accepting low wage jobs which are more suitable for the unskilled workers. Therefore, those who left school earlier in their lives will face several problems in the future.

This paper focused on developing a model to study the effect of sukuk issuance on the inflation rate in top sukuk issuing Islamic economies at 2014ý. ýFor this purposeý, ýas the available sample size is smallý, ýa Bayesian approach to regression model is used which contains key supply and demand side factors in addition to the outstanding sukuk volume as potential determinants of inflation rateý. ýIn the suggested modelý, ýinflation rate variable shows an apparent right skewness and the efficiency of log transformation for this variable is confirmed via Box-Cox approachý. ýTo give Bayesian estimators of the regression parametersý, ýwe have implemented an MCMC approach including 100,000 iterations in the WinBUGS softwareý. ýThe results show that sukuk volume is a significant determinant of inflation in selected Islamic countriesý, ýbut only in ýthe ýwell-ýdevelopedý capital market economies its increase could decline the rate of inflation and so sukuk could be used as a ýýýpolicy instrument for controlling inflationý. ýAlso the Bayesian estimation of the other parameters shows that increase of money growth and exchange rate growth lead to higher inflation ratesý. ý

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric effects of exchangerate on Iranian import price index using quarterly time series data over the period 1990- 2011. For this purpose, positive and negative shocks of the exchange rate have been separated from each other using dummy variables and the effects of the size of the exchange rate shocks by determining a threshold.
The empirical results indicate that the positive and negative shocks of the exchange rate both have positive and asymmetric effects on the import price index. The results show that the effects of negative shocks of the exchange rate on the imports price index is more than the positive shocks effect. In addition, the experimental findings of the research indicate that the effect of foreign exchange rate shocks size on the imports price is asymmetric and the effectiveness extent of smaller shocks is significantly more than that of bigger exchange rate shocks.
Moreover, according to the results, the effects of positive and negative shocks based on the size of foreign exchange shocks (small & big) on the imports price is asymmetric and the results show that the effect of small negative shocks is more than big ones and also the effects of small positive shocks is more than big ones.

This article aims to study lease and hiring contract in the Iranian-Islamic setting and analyze the asymmetric information problem in these contracts. For doing this, we study the characteristics of lease and hiring contracts in Iran (real world experimental characteristics that recognized in other studies), using library method, then we mathematically model different aspects of asymmetric information (hidden information and hidden action) using contract theory. The result of model indicates that there is a list of optimal contracts in any lease or hiring transactions that can solve asymmetric information problems (adverse selection and moral hazard) by satisfying the participation and incentive compatibility constraints. Finally in the experimental analyses we calculate the optimal contract with hypothetical parameters using lingo software and illustrate that the main models provided for every transactions is solvable and the optimal contracts are obtainable. Experimental contracts shows that the lessor has to set security deposits of tenant type θL lower than tenant type θH and set higher monthly rent for him in lease contracts, and principal has to set wage of tenant type θL lower than tenant type θH and set higher length of contract for him in hiring contracts to solve asymmetric information problems.

It is obvious that an optimal policy should consider main dimensions of the phenomenon that can affect the transmission mechanism of that policy. In an open economy, it is expected that variables of the foreign sector play important role in its economic behavior. Therefore, it needs that any optimal policy in an open economy to design in such a way which involves changes in the foreign sector. Due to this fact, this paper aims at assessing the monetary policy of Central Bank of Iran to find that whether this policy takes a right way or not. To do so, a DSGE model along with MCMC criteria are employed.
The main result indicates that the Central Bank decision on monetary policy follows McCallum rule without any respond to exchange rate shocks.

Environmental problems are one of the most challenging issues for the entire world and each country. In economic studies, environmental issues are analyzed as negative externalities. In this article, the negative externalities of electricity production on the output growth of different sectors and household’s welfare in Iran’s economy have been studied through price system using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model empirically. In this regard, Iran’s Social Accounting Matrix of 2011 and GAMS software by introducing five scenarios related to environmental effects of electricity production have been used. The results show that firstly, the internalization of electricity production externalities reduces the output of agriculture and industry sectors in all scenarios, while the output of services will increase. Secondly, internalization of electricity production externalities increases total economy’s output and declines the household’s welfare.