فصلنامه چشم انداز مدیریت دولتی
پیاپی 21 (بهار 1394)

Managers using information and communication technology struggle to change the goal, form and managerial practices radically. They are faced with the challenges and future development opportunities of the underlying information system and its IT implementation, the enterprise information system. The first challenge is to overcome the narrowness of scope of present practice in information and communication technology. The second challenge is how to face the problems caused by complexity that limit the controllability and manageability of the organization as a system. The third challenge is connected with the complexity problem, and describes fundamental issues of sustainability and viability. Following the third, the fourth challenge is to identify modes of survival for systems and dynamic system architectures that evolve and are resilient to changes of the environment in which they live.

Avatarism phenomenon Analysis through Layer analysis of causes. The development of information and communication technology has a huge impact in human life. The scope of this development, in the future, will bring a series of threats and opportunities that should be recognized to encounte. avatarism, as a new emerging phenomenon has its roots in the development of a new method for filling gaps in human communication. This article aims to analyze the causes of the avatarism by focusing on the relatively new method Layer analysis of causes In Future studies. Using Delphi convergence, views of 16 experts have been investigated. According to the results of the most obvious causal level, Elements such as technology development, seeking diversity and entertainment, justify the formation of this phenomenon. In the higher layers, the more basic elements such as focusing on the polyunsaturated human needs in need for communication and interaction and economic and social interests were effective. The third layer which proposes fundamental factors of Vatarysm it is noted that the formation of this phenomenon Philosophy has its roots in human-centered thinking and attempts to reductionism of the universe system only in the context of human capabilities, besides the dominant thinking in the development of this approach is the willingness to make heroes.

The main purpose of this research is to review the dimensions of avatarism and the analysis of the effect of this on cultural developments of the future of Iran. Considering the increase of the progress of ICT in the knowledge based era, one of the definite outcomes is the digitalizing of human communities, forming a second life or a life in virtual environments parallel to the real life. Avatar as a member of the future virtual community, make up the important features of the future human, that this forms the recognition of the future by recognizing those features. The aim of current research has been for development and the way of the procedure has been descriptive analysis. Furthermore the methodology of making scenarios is by using GBN, that by using this method they make and build the future by designing hypothetical scenarios. The population of this research includes the experts in the field of the ICT management in the Shahid Beheshti University. In conclusion we make 2D matrix that the y-axis includes technical and cultural and the x-axis includes positive synergy and positive and negative synergy and negative synergy. In total 6 scenraios have been built and the effects of avatarism on future cultural changes in Iran has been analysed.

The article develope methodology of science and technology foresight in designing a forward-looking policy on smart and green buildings and has been associated with a case study of the city of Tabriz. The purpose of the case study is reflect how policy visions can be seen in the context of dynamic social driver and develop solutions and establish markets and enabling technologies. Also on the subject of how the approach can draw a road map as a strategic guidance to identify the steps needed to transition to a shared vision also discussed. This may indicate a more precise vision of sequence evolution of technologies and innovations related tools and policies. The approach represents a road map and foresight that can help identify dependencies in the future. Smart city of Tabriz in 1404, is an example of a road map that is transformational technology foresight approach using library studies and a panel of experts was conducted.

Today, IT is increasingly developing complex structure covers. In these circumstances the correct use of information, accurate, complete and up to date information systems is inevitable. Also according to competition-based businesses in this area, decisions accurate, timely and effective is vital. In this regard, managers need information in order to improve their performance on the current situation, circumstances, opportunities, threats, status, status of competitors, the economic, social and political conditions . . . Are. Thus, large data bases and the analysis of its data centers, durability and sustainability is necessary. The use of efficient technologies such as data mining to discover and extract hidden information from large databases, is very important. In recent years, data mining has been widely in the fields of science and engineering, including information technology, genetics, medicine, and education . . . Is used. In this article we are going to approach futures exploration of trends and monitoring techniques to analyze trends, future prospects and applications that draw data mining in different fields of study.

With the emergence of network society and increasing the physical and virtual social networks, power relations in society have changed dramatically. As Manuel Castells (2009) said in 'Communication Power', through new forms of power such as 'Networking Power', 'Network Power', 'Networked Power' and 'Network-Making Power', the old balance of power has been changed, and citizens acquire more power and more serious role in social and political processes. Under the new conditions, virtual social networks are one of the most important channels for citizen, and elections are one of the major fields for appearance of new forms of power. This situation is a good opportunity for the ‘futures studies’, scanning and monitoring of elections. In ‘futures studies’ projects, scanning and monitoring (‘Dideh-baani’ in Persian), is a necessary step. Scanning and monitoring the possible events reduce our vulnerability and surprise. Election in Iran has always been one of the most important areas of uncertainty. Each previous Iran election has been accompanied with a wildcard. Scanning and monitoring the current environment, strengthens the hypothesis that virtual space and social networks are wildcards of Iran next election.

Today, with a view to increasing the influence and role of cyberspace in different groups according to the field of ICT infrastructure as one of the most advanced areas of science and technology is especially important for the countries.Firstly, the current status of ICT infrastructure in the country through interviews, questionnaires and brainstorming sessions with experts in the field of ICT and using SWOT method (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) is measured in the government agencies. The best status development of ICT infrastructure for country in cyberspace write using drivers and trends. four strategic scenario proposed for arriving to the best status with emphasis on seven step scenario planning and they will be prioritized. Communications and media access, market and industry information age, technology providers, and research and development, safety and security, laws and regulations, in development of infrastructure are taken into consideration.