مجله دانش و توسعه
پیاپی 25 (زمستان 1387)

Efficiency growth in financial institutions, one of the most important economic institutions in every country, is a fundamental step toward economic development Iranian banks do not have desirable efficiency, because most of them are governmental and without financial markets development. In this paper we want to address and compare efficiency in public and private banks, so we have used Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach, which is linear programming method. and being simple and reliable to measure the efficiency. we analysis the structure of banks and compare economic efficiency in governmental and private banks after establishing the first private bank. First we consider economic efficiency in governmental and private banks with variable return to scale using DEA approach.We have used two methods, named as: intermediation approach with income aspect and production approach with value added aspect. Efficiency accounting with using the first aspect shows that the economic efficiency in governmental banks is more than private banks, and the reason is that in private banks, there are several people who are deciding about the approaches, with different ideas and also there are not enough experts in banks problems. In the second approach, we find out that the economic efficiency in private banks is more than public bank. The main reason for that, is upper amount of technical efficiency in these banks. In this approach, the results during the first year of research (1380) is meaningless, The reason is the basic structure of private banks in the past and the time of their establishment, that causes comparison of them whith governmental banks to be difficult. At last we conclude that desirable efficiency of private banks and also announcing the following clauses of principle 44 of the I.R.Iran constitution mentioning to privatization of some governmental banks, it is necessary to become more efficient and the competition of the two groups of banks result in upgrading the level of quality and economic efficiency of them.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of orthodox and heterodox policies on economic growth in some developing countries. During recent decades especially after the establishment of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund which both supporting the so-called neoclassical growth theory, a similar policy package called orthodox policies was introduced to promote economic growth in developing countries. The package included policies such as lower government economic intervention; capital liberalization; and so on. However, the unsuccessful experiences of some developing countries used the prescribed package, cast some doubt in terms of efficiency of the these policies. In other words, some believe that countries used the package ended up with lower productivity as well as lower economic growth and experienced an increase in unproductive investment which caused financial crisis. In this paper we have used panel data in an econometrics model for some developing countries during 1990-2003, in order to determine the effects of orthodox & heterodox policies on economic growth of countries under consideration. Our findings indicate that due to inefficiencies of markets and structural bottlenecks in these countries, the orthodox policies did not have a significance effects. However, the usage of heterodox policies regarding the role of investment, have positive and significance effect on economic growth. Therefore, more emphasis on heterodox policies in these countries has been suggested.

Managers use earning management to show the profitability growing in a way that causes the output increase. one of the most important tools for this is discretionary accrual. Studies about earning management show that the managers use the opportunities to manage the exact earning. The aim of this research is to study the effect of market cycles on investor's reaction to discretionary accrual's changes. Related to the information of 1380-1383 three market cycles were identified: optimistic, neutral and pessimistic. Investor's reaction to the discretionary accrual changes in a sample of 66 firms is investigated. Results present that investors in our country dont pay attention to the information statements and earning management cant be an obstacle in investing way. And also market situation and existence of professional and amature investors wont affect it.

In this paper we studied the relationship between oil price and exchange rate in OPEC members. We investigated the long-run relationship between real oil prices and real exchange rates by using a monthly panel of seven countries of OPEC members from 1995:01 to 2006:12. We first test whether exchange rates are cointegrated with real oil prices. Stationary and cointegration tests for country-by-country and pooled series obviously shown the low power of individual country-by-country tests for unit roots and cointegration. It is shown that real oil prices may have been the dominant source of real exchange rate movements. We presented the Restricted Model, Fixed Effect Model and Random Effect Model results and select the preferable model by using of Restricted F test, LM test and Hausman test. Finally, results show that, there is a long-run link between real oil prices and real exchange rates.

Electricity industry is older than 100 years in the world and every nation has selected a kind of system depends on interference of government or private sector in electricity industry. But today, generally, in all over the world, electricity industry is moving towards competitive markets and process of reforming structure. Electricity industry in Iran is passing a new structure from natural monopoly structure to competitive markets in which producers compete for selling energy. In this sitvation, study about the situation of economical industry of electricity in Iran is too important. Using cointegration analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling; the present article focuses on this issue by both providing electricity demand estimation and forecast for electricity demand in Iran. The study concludes that consumer's respond to price and income changes is quite limited and therefore there is a need for economic regulation in Iran electricity market. Furthermore, forecasting future demand indicate that per capita demand of electricity increases with annual growth rate of 4/4 percent and this shows that growth rate of electricity consumption in Iran is very high.

In this study, the rate of time preference as the most important origin of interest is studied. It is firstly examined from the view point of its determinants and then the affected factors from time preference will be considered. Results show that the most important affected variable is saving rate, so that the higher the rate of time preference is the lower the optimal saving rate. This can be explained by the fact that the high the time preference the more distance one takes in his allocation choice from rational norm. We also claim that time preference can not provided enough bases for existent of market rate of interest. This variable have been examined for Iranian economy with Structural Equations, Multiple Indicator Multiple Indicator Cause model (MIMIC) for period of 1351-81. The results also show that increase in time preference rate decreases private investment intensively.

Considering the close relationship between energy (including electricity) consumption and economic growth in the world economy the determination of the quantity and the quality of such a relationship within the Iranian economy could be helpful for the conception and definition of the electricity sector's policies. This article investigates the existence of Granger’s Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP of Iran during 1967-2006 and tries to determine the direction of this causality. For this purpose, we firstly survey the stationarity of electricity and GDP variables. Then, using the Toda-Yamamoto Method, we test the causality relationship between these two variables. According to the results, we can advance that in Iran the economic growth is prior to electricity consumption. So, the electricity reduction policy could be followed without any difficulty for economic growth.

There are many users of price indices, including governments, commercial enterprises, national and international organizations and the public at large, so the accuracy of price indices is very important. In this paper, we focused on one of the most important indices, i.e. Import Price Index (MPI), and we proposed a novel method of its calculation based on available information in the reports of Customs Administrations by using some mathematical transformations on well-known indices like: Weighted Price Relatives Index, Paasche, Fisher and two geometric mean Indices. Finally, we presented scores of suggested forms by considering some properties and tests to choose one of the indices as the best. Additionally, a novel error measure is introduced and efficiency of suggested formula is examined by using all kinds of possibilities based on price and quantity of two sample commodities.