نشریه آینده پژوهی مدیریت
سال بیست و هشتم شماره 4 (پیاپی 111، زمستان 1396)

Nowadays, solar energy has been utilized in various ways and photovoltaic technology is one of them. Photovoltaic phenomena is a phenomena in which solar energy converts to the electrical energy “direct”. Shrinkage of fossil fuel resources as the current main source of energy, is one of the main concerns of today’s world. Because of the solar energy has attracted attentions as an alternative for fossil fuels recently. Technology forecasting has been defined as pre-realization of promising future technology progresses and assessment of its potential. Researchers use numerous methods to forecast technology and analysis of patent is one of them. In this article international patents, related to the area, which are registered in USPTO from 1985 to 2016 has been extracted. By implementation of text mining and two step clustering approach, it turns out that there is research gaps in this sector of technology which is not considered. As the result, research gaps and future research opportunities for researchers were identified and presented.

Housing sector is one of the pioneer sectors of every economy that attention to that moreover deep social and cultural influences and making jobs in building sector and dependent sectors, by means of influence on consuming expenditures and investment, effects strongly on gross domestic product changes and economical fluctuations. Also in recent years, this industry always has faced with splendor and stagnancy. so in this research, housing industry with regard to importance and it`s role in economical development and public welfare, with financial view investigated as Futures study. As identifying effective key factors on investment and future profitability of housing industry are important, this research with using ultra disciplinary of futures study intends to apply recognitional instruments and scenario writing, presents a clear view of future of Iran housing industry to programmers and investors. because of this research is done with general and comprehensive view related to research variables, results of this research can be generalized to housing industry of country. in this research with studying subject literature and interview with experts of housing industry, effective factors on research variables are identified and next, with using cross impact analysis approach, data entered to Mic-mac software and 4 effective key factors on future of investment and profitability are specified including economical sanctions, scale of government investment in housing sector, economical splendor and stagnancy, scale of access to infrastructural networks that are selected among 40 effective factors. in next phase, for writing scenarios, 4 effective key factors with specifying uncertainty states in questionnaire by experts, entered to Scenariowizard software and the most consistent future forthcoming scenarios of housing industry specified . After identifying scenarios and consult experts, economical sanctions and scsle of government investment in housing sector selected for writing scenarios and with regards to their conditions, future of housing industry presented in the form of 4 scenarios.

Mission and vision statement have an important role in company’s strategic goals and direction, so content analysis of such documents has a positive influence on company’s success. Food industry, as a major means of meeting one of people’s most essential needs, requires to be improved. Therefore, we aimed to analyze the mission and vision statement of top food industry companies in Iran and the world to understand about similarities and differences in their strategic alignments. The current research is conducted on 53 companies from top 500 fortune list and 42 Iranian pioneer companies based on ministry of industry and mining list. We used text mining technique to process the documents and clustered them into distinct groups by K-Means algorithm. Finally, we ranked the important roots in each cluster using SAW method. Then, we compared the clusters based on their essential components. The findings indicate that while foreign companies focus on customers and image creation, Iranian companies care about products, development and stating general concepts.

Nowadays, placing Iran on the international corridors route has made the loss of Iranian roads and the emergence of environmental issues and the issue of energy, development of transportation and futures research in it. The purpose of this research is to identify effective factors and provide a fast-moving technology transfer model with a futuristic approach. Data collection has been done through library studies and field studies. After 73 of these indicators were extracted, 54 main indicators were selected by the experts in the field of transportation of rail transport technology. According to these indices, the research questionnaire was designed and distributed. Finally, after completing the questionnaire by 37 experts in the field of technology transfer, the data collected using structural equations and PLS Smart software were analyzed and the research model was fitted and the number of 49 indicators in 3 factors and 8 dimensions for the model Designed accepted.

Identifying and analyzing the future is one of the basic needs of today’s organizations in order to survive in very competitive and unpredictable environment. Isfahan municipality is a key organization in urban development, so it needs to gain new skills for facing rapid
Changes in the future. The objectives of this research are to introduce the most suitable futures studies approaches for using in planning and urban management and to design organizational structure based on foresighting. The research method is descriptive-analytic. Information was collected based on documental analysis method. For reaching organizational structure based on futures studies, different approaches such as participative, strategic, and corporate were studied by expert panel.
The results reveal that corporate approach, is based on the assumption of implementation in an organization, is rooted in strategic notion, and emphasizes participation and exchange of views. Considering the characteristics mentioned, the corporate approach is more extensive than the other two approaches, and is therefore selected. Then due to characteristics of the corporate approach, the organizational structure of the Isfahan municipality futures studies group was suggested.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of management ability on the value creation in the chemical and food industry in 2012-2016 by using artificial neural network. Initially, with the implementation of the DEA model with a native model, the relative efficiency is determined for each company and by estimating a regression model, the management ability to each company is also determined. Then the value creation of the companies is measured by the average of the factors such as return on equity, Q Tobin ratio, return on investment, and wealth creation for shareholders. The neural network model used in this study is a multilayer perceptron with back propagation error training pattern. To evaluate the relative efficiency is used the GAMS optimization software and to measure the management ability used the E-Views and MATLAB software is used to train and test the neural networks model.
The results show that the artificial neural network model in the food industry is better than the chemical industry. This model estimates the companie's value creation through the management ability and other input variables. Other research results, the management ability score in both industries is equal, but the average value creation of the companies in the food industry is higher than the chemical industry.

The present study is aimed to present and validate the commercial diplomacy model in international trade based on grounded theory and structural equations modeling. The present study is mixed and explorative design. The approach of this study is a combination of qualitative and quantitative (mixed) approaches in which the required qualitative methods including explorative interview are used to design the commercial diplomacy model in international trade and quantitative methods are used to test the conceptual model of study. The study population in qualitative sector of study is managers and experts of commercial companies of Tehran city. The study population in quantitative sector is the employees of commercial companies. Based on the number of study population and to be sure of the full coverage of study sample, 400 questionnaires were distributed among the employees of commercial companies, of which 384 questionnaires were analyzed due to the accuracy and validity of data. Based on the grounded theory in commercial diplomacy field, the cultural, financial, market and political factors were identified and the study model was considered. The results showed that the financial factors had positive and significant impact on political and cultural factors. Also, political and cultural factors had positive and significant impact on market factors. In addition, the impact of market factors and cultural factors on the success of commercial diplomacy in international trade was significant.