فهرست مطالب

برنامه ریزی و توسعه گردشگری - پیاپی 26 (پاییز 1397)
  • پیاپی 26 (پاییز 1397)
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1397/09/03
  • تعداد عناوین: 7
|
  • امیر طیبی *، کامران ذکاوت صفحات 8-27
    فهم تعاملات بین جامعه میزبان و گردشگران، عاملی مهم در شناخت و مدیریت گردشگری است. بخشی از این موضوع، تاثیری است که جامعه میزبان بر تصویر ذهنی مهمان (گردشگر) از مقصد می گذارد. هدف این مطالعه، بررسی تاثیر جامعه میزبان بر تصویر ذهنی گردشگران از فضاهای شهری جمعی باز است. این مطالعه کیفی با رویکرد تحلیل محتوا انجام شده است. مشارکت کنندگان 24 گردشگر داخلی شهر اصفهان بودند که تجربه بازدید‏های قبلی از این شهر و فضا‏های آن‏را داشتند. جمع ‏آوری داده‏ ها توسط مصاحبه ‏های نیمه‏ ساختار‏یافته انجام شد و تا زمان رسیدن به اشباع نظری ادامه یافت. 5 مقوله اصلی از تحلیل داده‏ ها بدست آمد: 1) سرزندگی، 2) تاکیدات میزبان در فضا، 3) خود‏معرفی میزبان، 4) حس گردشگر از میزبان و 5) غذا. نتایج این مطالعه به متخصصان و مدیران گردشگری و طراحان و مدیران فضا‏های شهری کمک می کند تا تصویر ذهنی گردشگران از فضا‏های شهری را بهتر شناخته و از این طریق، زمینه ارتقا سطح گردشگری شهری را فراهم‏ تر نمایند.
    کلیدواژگان: تصویر ذهنی گردشگر از مقصد، فضای شهری جمعی باز، جامعه میزبان، تحلیل محتوا، مطالعه کیفی
  • محمدرضا رضوانی، سیدعلی بدری *، ذبیح الله ترابی صفحات 28-51
    گردشگری با توجه به ماهیت خود، چشم اندازی گسترده ای را برای متنوع سازی مشاغل ایجاد کرده است و فرصتی را برای مشارکت فقیرانی که اغلب در مشاغل فصلی و اقتصاد غیررسمی فعالیت می کنند، فراهم نموده است. به طورکلی هدف آن است که طبقه پایین جوامع روستایی به همان اندازه که در پرداخت هزینه های اقتصادی، اجتماعی- فرهنگی و زیست محیطی رشد گردشگری شریک هستند، سهم خود را نیز در منافع حاصل از توسعه گردشگری دریافت نماید. بر این اساس، پژوهش حاضر با یک مطالعه کیفی از نوع تحلیل محتوا با روش نمونه گیری هدفمند موانع پیش روی تحقق طبیعت گردی حامی فقرا را در روستاهای منتخب شرق استان سمنان (قلعه بالا، رضاآباد و ابر) مورد واکاوی قرار داده است. گردآوری اطلاعات از طریق مصاحبه، با شش گروه ذی نفع کلیدی (فقرا، افراد خارج شده از فقر، مدیران محلی، سرمایه گذاران، ساکنان محلی) در تابستان و پاییز 1396 به دست آمده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد ذی نفعان موانع فراروی تحقق طبیعت گردی حامی فقرا در روستاهای موردمطالعه را در پنج طبقه نابرابری آموزشی، روابط نابرابر قدرت، سبک زندگی، تقدیرگرایی و مشکلانت مدیریتی و تمرکزگرایی تصمیمات طبقه بندی نمودند.
    کلیدواژگان: روستاهای سمنان، موانع، طبیعت گردی، حامی فقرا
  • احمدرضا مولایی، علی صنایعی *، آذرنوش انصاری صفحات 52-67
    در هزاره فرارو، جهان بوسیله فن آوری و فرایند جهانی شدن، در مسیر همگنی فزاینده ای در حال پیشروی است. از این رو جهت دستیابی به مزیت اقتصاد رقابتی، برخوردار بودن از یک حس مکان متمایز، بیش از پیش برای شهرها و کشورها اهمیت یافته است. با توجه به تعریف گردشگری به عنوان یکی از محورهای اصلی توسعه و پیشرفت اصفهان لازم است تا ابعاد موثر در تعیین حس مکان شهر اصفهان به عنوان یکی از مقاصد گردشگری بین المللی مورد تحلیل واقع شود. هدف اصلی این پژوهش کاربردی که با تلفیق روش های اسنادی و پیمایشی و در دو گام انجام گرفته، شناسایی و سنجش پیشرانهای کلیدی موثر در تعیین حس مکان مقصد گردشگری شهر اصفهان است. نتایج این پژوهش حاصل از تحلیل نظرات 31 نفر از خبرگان در خصوص موضوع پژوهش نشان می دهد که 16 پیشران کلیدی شناسایی شده در تعیین حس مکان شهر اصفهان به عنوان یک مقصد گردشگری در سه گروه کالبدی، فعالیتی و معنایی تقسیم پذیرند. سه پیشران "صنایع دستی و هنرهای سنتی"، جاذبه های تاریخی" و "سابقه تاریخی و تمدنی" دارای بیشترین امتیاز و از بین عوامل معنایی "تصویر و ذهنیت شکل گرفته از مقصد"، "میراث فرهنگی ناملموس" و "کیفیت ادراک شده از محیط و زندگی در مقصد شهر اصفهان" دارای کمترین اثرگذاری را در بین عوامل تعیین کننده حس مکان مقصد گردشگری اصفهان دارا می باشند.
    کلیدواژگان: حس مکان، مقاصد گردشگری، میک مک، شهر اصفهان
  • جمیله توکلی نیا، علی اکبر متکان، مظفر صرافی، فائزه بوربوری* صفحات 68-95
    طی چند دهه اخیر اکوتوریسم به عنوان یکی از زیر مجموعه های صنعت گردشگری رشد چشمگیری داشته است و عبارت است از سفری مسئولانه به نواحی طبیعی که به حفظ محیط زیست و پایداری رفاه مردم محلی می انجامد. کشورهای توسعه یافته و در حال توسعه آن را به عنوان ابزاری قدرتمند جهت رشد و توسعه پایدار ترویج می نمایند. کشور ما به دلیل موقعیت جغرافیای خاصی که در سطح جهان دارد، در چهار فصل و در نقاط مختلف، دارای ویژگی های طبیعی است که می تواند برای گردشگران جذاب باشد. توسعه این صنعت در هر منطقه نیازمند شناسایی دقیق قابلیتها و زیرساختهای مرتبط با این حوزه می باشد. بر اساس آنچه بیان گردید، توسعه فعالیت های اکوتوریسم و انتخاب مناطق مستعد در مطالعات ضرورت می یابد. وجود جاذبه های طبیعی، از راهکارهای مناسب، ابتدا شاخص ها و معیارهای تاثیرگذار در توسعه اکوتوریسم، شناسایی و استخراج و در ادامه از روش وزن دهی چند معیارهاAHP جهت مشخص نمودن اهمیت هر یک از پارامترهای تاثیرگذار استفاده گردید. در نهایت برای یافتن نواحی مناسب و نیز تلفیق لایه ها بر اساس سناریوهای گوناگون از روش OWA در GIS استفاده شد. نتایج به دست آمده از سناریوهای گوناگون نشان از تناسب خوب منطقه در توسعه اکوتوریسم می باشد.
    کلیدواژگان: اکوتوریسم پایدار، ارزیابی چند معیاره، OWA، AHP
  • شهریار زروکی *، حسنا ازوجی، سیده رقیه ساداتی امیری صفحات 96-121
    توریسم صنعتی پویا و فراگیر است که طیف وسیعی از مزایا و ارزش ها را برای سازمان ها، جوامع و مناطقی که در این صنعت سهیم اند فراهم می کند. این صنعت با افزایش فعالیت اقتصادی و افزایش تنوع در آن و همچنین ایجاد انگیزه برای توسعه اقتصادی و سرمایه گذاری و افزایش اشتغال و درآمد موجب بهبود رفاه اقتصادی می شود. از این رو امروزه صنعت توریسم به عنوان یکی از مهم ترین صنایع دنیا مطرح بوده و اهمیت روزافزون آن موجب شده تا نه تنها به عنوان یک صنعت، بلکه به عنوان صنعتی درآمدزا، دارای قابلیت های فراوان رشد و توسعه و ایجاد اثرات مثبت اقتصادی و افزایش رفاه شناخته شود. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی تاثیر بخش توریسم بر رفاه اقتصادی، در منتخبی از 50 کشور جهان سال های 2016-2004 انجام شده است. برای این منظور ابتدا شاخص رفاه اقتصادی (IEWB [1]) با استفاده چهار جزء جریان مصرف، انباشت ثروت، توزیع درآمدهای فردی و سطح امنیت اقتصادی محاسبه شده و سپس مبتنی بر روش داده های تابلویی برآورد در قالب یک الگوی پایه و سه سناریو (بر اساس ویژگی صادرکنندگی سوخت، قرار داشتن در زمره کشورها برتر از حیث توریسم؛ و عضویت در سازمان همکاری اقتصادی و توسعه) صورت گرفت. نتایج حاکی از آن است که بخش توریسم و تولید ناخالص داخلی اثری مثبت؛ و تورم اثری منفی بر رفاه اقتصادی دارد. البته نوع و اندازه ی این اثرات بر رفاه اقتصادی در گروه های مختلف کشوری متفاوت است. به نحوی که برای کشورهای صادرکننده ی سوخت نظیر ایران، اثرگذاری مثبت ارزش افزوده ی حقیقی توریسم بر رفاه اقتصادی کمتر از سایر کشورها بوده و در کشورهای برتر در صنعت توریسم، اندازه اثرگذاری بیشتر است. همچنین برای تورم و تولید نیز در گروه های سه گانه از کشورها، اندازه ی اثرگذاری متفاوتی بر رفاه اقتصادی مشاهده شده است.
    کلیدواژگان: توریسم، رفاه اقتصادی، تورم، تولید، روش داده های تابلویی
  • محمدرضا فرزین *، امیر افسر، علیرضا دبیر، ابتهال زندی صفحات 122-145
    یکی از مهمترین رویدادها در صنعت گردشگری هر کشور، میزان تقاضا برای یک محصول یا مقصد گردشگری است. اما باید توجه داشت پیش بینی ها هرگز نمی توانند به طور صد درصد با آنچه در عمل پیش خواهد آمد تطابق داشته باشند. همیشه فواصل و انحرافاتی بین مقادیر واقعی و پیش بینی موجود خواهد بود، ولی استفاده از روش های علمی و نوین در امر پیش بینی، باعث خواهد شد نتایج حاصله به مراتب بیش از یک تخمین عینی به حقیقت نزدیک شود. در سال های اخیر با تغییر الگوی تعطیلات و شکل گیری تعطیلات کوتاه مدت، شهرها فرصتی برای توسعه گردشگری پیدا کردند. یکی از مهمترین انواع گردشگری داخلی شهر تهران بر اساس آمار مرکز ملی آمار و نظرات صاحب نظران این حوزه، گردشگری بازدید از دوستان و بستگان (VFR) است به همین منظور پژوهش حاضر سعی دارد مدل هایی برای پیش بینی تقاضای گردشگری بازدید از دوستان و بستگان (VFR) داخلی شهر تهران پیشنهاد کند. برای این کار از اطلاعات ماهیانه بین سال های 1381 تا [1] 1394 استفاده شده است. متغیر مستقل این تحقیق تعداد گردشگران بازدید کننده از دوستان و بستگان (VFR) داخلی شهر تهران است و متغیرهای وابسته نیز بر اساس تکنیک دلفی و دیماتل فازی انتخاب شدند، چارچوب مدل، ترکیبی از رگرسیون [2] ، شبکه عصبی فازی [3] و الگوریتمSVR [4] است که با ترکیب این روش ها می توان خطای پیش بینی را اندازه گیری و روش ها را با هم مقایسه کرد. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می دهد رویکرد ترکیبی رگرسیون و شبکه های عصبی فازی (ANFIS) پیشنهادی می تواند پیش بینی بهتری نسبت به سایر روش ها در خصوص پیش بینی گردشگری بازدید از دوستان و بستگان (VFR) داخلی داشته باشد.
    کلیدواژگان: رگرسیون، شبکه عصبی فازی، الگوریتم SVR، پیش بینی تقاضای گردشگری بازدید از دوستان و بستگان(VFR) داخلی، شهر تهران
  • صفورا غلامی، امیر گندمکار *، راضیه فنایی صفحات 146-168
    آب و هوا و اعتدال آن، میزان پذیرش و جذب مسافر و گردشگر را افزایش می دهد. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی ارتباط بین مخاطرات آب و هوایی خشکسالی، سرماهای فرین، گرماهای فرین، بارش شدید، گرد و غبار، یخبندان و آلودگی هوا با تعداد گردشگران خارجی شهر اصفهان صورت گرفته است. در این راستا از آمار مجموع بارش، حداقل مطلق دما، حداکثر مطلق دما، حداکثر بارش 24 ساعته، تعداد روزهای همراه با گرد و خاک، تعداد روزهای همراه با یخبندان، شاخص کیفیت هوای شهر اصفهان و تعداد گردشگران خارجی طی دوره آماری 93-1382 در مقیاس ماهانه استفاده شد. به منظور بررسی ارتباط بین متغیرهای مورد مطالعه از روش رگرسیون خطی و همبستگی پیرسون استفاده و ارتباط سنجی ها در مقیاس ماهانه، سالانه و سری زمانی صورت پذیرفت. در ادامه، ارتباط سنجی با زمان تاخیر یک ماهه، دو ماهه و یک ساله انجام شد. نتایج حاکی از آن است که در ماه های سرد، بین سرماهای فرین، گرد و غبار و یخبندان و در ماه های گرم، خشکسالی و گرد و غبار و تعداد گردشگران ارتباط وجود داشته است. در مقیاس سالانه نیز بین سرماهای فرین، گرماهای فرین و یخبندان و تعداد گردشگران تقریبا در تمام سال های مورد مطالعه ارتباط مشاهده شد. بررسی سری زمانی مورد مطالعه نیز حاکی از وجود ارتباط بین گرماهای فرین، یخبندان، سرماهای فرین، شاخص کیفیت هوا و تعداد گردشگران می باشد. در مجموع می توان بیان نمود که طی دوره آماری مورد مطالعه به ترتیب آلودگی هوا، گرماهای فرین، روزهای همراه با یخبندان، سرماهای فرین، گرد و غبار، خشکسالی و در نهایت بارش شدید بیش از سایر مخاطرات با تعداد گردشگران ارتباط داشته است.
    کلیدواژگان: اصفهان، خشکسالی، سرماهای فرین، گردشگری، مخاطرات آب و هوایی
|
  • Amir Tayyebi*, Kamran Zekavat Pages 8-27
    Understanding interactions between the host society and tourists is an important factor in tourism cognition and management. Part of this matter is the effect that the host society has on the mental image of the guest (traveler) of destination. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of host society on the mental image of tourists about the urban public open spaces. This qualitative study has been conducted using content analysis approach. The participants were 24 domestic tourists in the city of Isfahan who had experience of visiting this city and its spaces. Data collection was done by semi-structured interviews and continued until theoretical saturation. The five main categories of data analysis were: 1) vitality, 2) host emphases on space, 3) self-introduction of host, 4) tourists’ sense about the host and 5) food. The results of this study will help the experts, tourism managers and urban designers and managers to better understand the tourists’ image of urban spaces and accordingly provide the context to improve the level of urban tourism.
    Introduction
    Tourism is a social phenomenon involved interactions and relationships between individuals, organizations and various interested groups especially between tourists and local residents (McGehee & Andereck, 2009; Sharpley, 2014). Interactions and relationships between local residents and tourists can affect their attitudes, expectations, beliefs and lifestyles (Sharpley, 2008). One of the most important issues influenced by the interactions between the host society (local residents) and tourists is the tourist's image destination.
    Few studies have examined the effect of host society on the tourists’ image of urban public open spaces qualitatively. To meet this particular lack of literature on the subject matter, this qualitative study examines the impact of host society on tourists’ image of urban public open spaces.
    Methods
    A qualitative study with content analysis approach has been used to examine the effect of host society on the tourists’ image of urban public open spaces. Content analysis is a systematic approach to code and categorize that can be used to verify a large amount of textual information and determine the processes and patterns in the data (Gbrich, 2007). In order to ensure the accuracy of the data the long-term engagement with the data was considered by the researchers by which the depth and familiarity needed to extract the main themes would be provided. To ensure that codes are consistent with the experiences and mental images of the participants, the member- check was used. Interviews, initial codes, and themes were also judged by peer-check and expert- check. Discussion and Results: The purpose of this study was to understand the effect of host society on the tourists’ image of urban public open spaces. In this study, by analyzing the statements of tourists in public open spaces, 5 categories were extracted as the dimensions of the effectiveness of the host society on the tourists’ image of urban public open spaces. These five categories include: vitality, host emphases on space, self-introduction of host, tourists’ sense about the host and food. This research was one of the first qualitative studies that examined the effect of host society on the tourists’ image of urban public open spaces in Iran.
    Conclusions
    In this study, concepts related to the effect of host society on the tourists’ image of urban public open spaces were identified. These concepts included 5 categories and 11 subcategories. Since urban public open spaces (such as streets and squares) are among the most important destinations for urban tourism, understanding the effect of the host society on tourists’ image of these spaces is advantageous for groups involved in the management of urban spaces (such as urban designers) and in tourism management.
    This research is one of the first qualitative studies to examine the effect of host society on the tourists’ image of urban public open spaces in Iran. However, because the data have been collected from limited sample and based on purposeful sampling, generalization to other tourists and dissimilar places (environmentally, culturally, and psychologically) is not possible. This study provided valuable information about tourists’ image of urban public open spaces. Given the fact that other dimensions affecting the tourists’ image of urban public open spaces are still not well known, the grounded theory approach is recommended for further research.
    Keywords: tourist destination image, urban public open space, host society, content analysis, qualitative study
  • Mohammad Reza Rezvani, Seyed Ali Badri *, Zabih Allah Torabi Pages 28-51
    According to its nature, tourism has created a broad perspective to diversify businesses and provides an opportunity for the participation of the poor, who often work in seasonal jobs and informal economy. In general, the goal is that poor people in the rural community receive of the benefits of tourism development as much as they share the cost of economic, socio-cultural and environmental development of tourism. Accordingly, the present study was conducted with a qualitative study of content analysis with purposeful sampling Obstacles to the realization of nature based tourism pro-poor in selected villages in the eastern province of Semnan. The data collection was also conducted through interviews in the summer and fall of 1396 with six key stakeholder groups (the poor, people left out of poverty, local managers, investors, local residents). The results of the study indicate that the stakeholders classified the barriers to the realization of naturalism supporting the poor in the studied villages in five categories: educational inequality, unequal power relations, lifestyle, fidelity, and problem management and centralization of decisions.
    Introduction
    Tourism has recently become a widely discussed topic by researchers, international organizations, and governments of less developed countries as an effective tool for poverty alleviation. This is while, after failure of the neoliberal approach and the shortcomings of the alternative tourism approach (as a substitute for poverty reduction), the human development approach was arrised in the 1990s to accelerate economic growth and reduce poverty (Sharpley & Telfer, 2014). In the same period, the concept of pro poor tourism (PPT) was introduced by the Department of International Development of Britain into the tourism literature aim at achieving human development goals.
    Ashley et al. (2000) refers to the definition of PPT as "an approach seeks to increase net benefits for the poor through the growth of tourism in the three dimensions of sustainable development (economic, social and environmental), and ensuring that tourism growth reduces poverty."
    In Iran, after the Islamic Revolution of 1978, the government tried to reduce the severity of their vulnerability through some supportive institutions such as the Imam Khomeini Relief Committee and the Welfare Organization and the Mostazafan Foundation, with material supports from some of the poorest classes. But every year, the number of people who are supported by these two institutions has increased each year, and in 2017, almost one million and seven hundred thousand households were under the material supports of these two organizations (Imam Khomeini Relief Committee, 2017). So it can be said that billions of dollars from oil revenues in the past 39 years have not been able to reduce the severity of poverty in Iran. However, in recent years, the Iranian government has been shifting its policy toward creating job opportunities for poor people. Therefore, in tourism projects, the attention paid to the poor is of paramount importance, but these programs are still based on oil
    Methods
    Qualitative content analysis method was used to survey tourism and reducing poverty in villages of Turan National Park. Selection of samples was done through targeted snowball sampling. Each participant was asked after the interview to introduce other people by mentioning the address of their place of residence.
    Data collection was done through semi-structured interviews of people who have been involved in tourism activities in the region for 2 to 7 years, such as the poor, people who have left the poverty line, local executives, residents and investors. The process of collecting data continued to the level of theoretical saturation and the usefulness of information (Table 1). Data collection in this study lasted more than three months.
    The interviews took place by taking the previous time from the participants and at the workplace of these people. Before the start of the interview, the goal of the research was raised for the participants and their written consent was received to participate in the research and use of the recording of the interview. They also assured them that the information obtained would not be shared with anyone else.
    Then the main questions were put forward by the research team, which consisted of three tourism specialists. The duration of the interview was 35 minutes with a standard deviation of 10 minutes and all interviews were recorded. The main question began with tourism experiences and poverty reduction.
    In addition, other questions for interviews were conducted with other people as needed. In this study, due to the culture and kind of attitude of some families to women, interviews with women were subject to limitations; therefore, the female interviewer was considered for question. The process of collecting data has continued to the level of theoretical saturation and the usefulness of information thresholds. As a result of this interview (30 interviews), the research team concluded that while learning to achieve this, more information could not be obtained from this method. To encode data, the interview was first repeated several times in order to create a sense of affinity with the implications of the data; then it turned into a written text, and again the entire text was read several times from beginning to end, and finally a summary of the entire interview and the flood of its text were written. This action helped the researcher to more easily discover the underlying implications of the data during the coding process. The NVIVO version 10 software program was used to analyze the concepts as regular code. Then the main themes and subtopics were extracted.
    Results & Discussion
    Accordingly, the present study was conducted with a qualitative study of content analysis with purposeful sampling Obstacles to the realization of nature based tourism pro-poor in selected villages in the eastern province of Semnan (Qala bala, Reza Abad and Abr). The data collection was also conducted through interviews in the summer and fall of 1396 with six key stakeholder groups (the poor, people left out of poverty, local managers, investors, local residents). The results of the study indicate that the stakeholders classified the barriers to the realization of naturalism supporting the poor in the studied villages in five categories: educational inequality, unequal power relations, lifestyle, fidelity, and problem management and centralization of decisions.
    Keywords: villages of Semnan province, obstacles, pro-poor, nature-based tourism
  • Ahmad Reza Molaei Raddani, Ali Sanayei *, Azarnoosh Ansari Pages 52-67
    Tourism destinations as a place, while providing communication between tourists and the surrounding environment, create different meanings and ideas in their minds. These meanings and mental imagery give an identity to the place and create the sense of place. According to the review of literature, the identity of a place affects the quality of the human-place relationship and the formation of a desirable sense of place and subsequently an individual’s identity. Because the identity of a place originates from individual and community values which over time, deepens, expands and changes. Tourism destinations aim to achieve this feature to create a unique tourist experience.
    Introduction
    The world is moving ahead with the increasing homogeneity of technology and the process of globalization. Hence, in order to achieve the advantage of a competitive economy, having a distinctive sense of place is more important for cities and countries. Because a destination brand must transfer its sense of place and establish an emotional bond with its audience. There is a sense of place both in the perceptions of foreigners and in the feelings of the inhabitants of that place. If these two inferences are not in relative harmony, the economic performance of that location will not be optimal. Creating a distinction in services and products is one of the key marketing strategies. This will attract consumers and build a long-lasting relationship between the consumer and the brand. Brands play an important role in marketing strategies for tourism destinations and are considered as valuable assets and resources of distinction. In fact, tourism destinations, are trying to find a distinct sense of space to attract maximum number of tourists.
    Materials and Methods
    This applied research consists of two steps: the first step is considered as the ground for the second stage analysis. In the first step, two actions were taken. First, using the library methodology and documentary studies, the key driver factors for determining the sense of place were extracted from the results of other previous researchers. As the second action of the first step of the study a questionnaire was designed with open-ended questions about the key driver factors of determining the sense of place of the city of Isfahan as a tourism destination. This questionnaire was conducted using the Delphi method and asking experts and the research team to answer three open-ended questions .The experts of this study included 31 qualified academic and executive staff with relevant education and experience. After completing the two rounds of going through the questionnaires, a total of 16 components in three dimensions were agreed upon by the experts and the research team. In the second step, the cross-effects table, consisting of 16 key driver factors was determined as the result of the first round questionnaire analysis. Measuring the impact and effectiveness of all the key driver factors in determining the sense of place related to Isfahan City as a tourism destination was carried out by re-scrutinizing the same community of experts.

    Discussion and Results: The "Handicrafts and traditional arts" are of the highest importance among the 16 key driver factors identified in the city of Isfahan. This means that this factor will have the greatest impact and is also affected the most among other factors. Other factors such as "historical attractions", "historical and civilization history", "local culture"," held- events “and "celebrities and devotees attributed to Isfahan" are ranked second to sixth respectively, and have a higher impact among the 16 factors identified.
    On the other hand, the drivers such as modern attractions and destination management and planning have a relatively small impact on other factors of their group, which reflects the fact that, creating new attractions in Isfahan as a tourism destination and even a planning system against other factors have less power to create a sense of place for residents and visitors due to its very high historical and cultural importance.
    Conclusions
    The sense of place inherent to the city of Isfahan as a tourism destination, which represents the unique idea of ​​the residents and visitors about this city, consists of three groups of physical, activity and meaningful factors. The recognition of the importance and priority of the sense of place determinants is the most important task of the destination management organizations in the process of branding the destination. Recognizing the right drivers can be a great guide for destination management organizations in destination positioning, and on the other hand, the destination management organization, should not only care about preserving and introducing these key drivers in the destination, but also observe and monitor the impact of these key drivers and how much they are influenced by other drivers.
    Keywords: Sense of Place, Tourism Destination, Mic Mac, Isfahan City
  • Jamileh Tavakkolinia, Aliakbar Matkan, Mozaffar Sarrafi, Faezeh Borbori * Pages 68-95
    Introduction
    Over the past few decades, ecotourism as one of the subcategories of the tourism industry has had a remarkable growth. It is evident from a responsible trip to a natural surrounding leading to the preservation of environment and the sustainable welfare of the locals. Developed and developing countries promote it as a strong tool for the growth and sustainable development. Iran can be the center of tourist attractions due to its particular geographical setting and having natural features in all four seasons. The development of this industry needs an exact identification of capabilities and infrastructure in each region. One of the fundamental stages of this process is the location of tourist-ready zones, especially ecotourism by applying modern technology. The selection of correct place not only saves time, expenses and resources but provides the maximum investment efficiency. As such, the expansion of ecotourism activities and the selection of ready zones necessitate more studies. Iran’s Rudbar, Ghasran and Lavasanat region, surrounded by the Alborz mountain range, is a beautiful landscape with a pleasant climate. Abundant natural attractions of the region, equally with suitable tourism infrastructure as well as using existing capabilities, can help achieve the sustainable development of the tourism industry.
    Materials and methods
    In the current research, in order to identify the ecotourism potential of the region and present suitable ways, first effective criteria and indices were identified and extracted for developing ecotourism and then a multi-criteria evaluation AHP method was used to distinguish the importance of each of the effective parameters. Thereafter, data such as visibility, height, slope, distance from roads, landuse, distance to natural attractions, fault line, distance to educational centers and religious attractions as well as archeological sites were applied. Finally, the OWA method in GIS was used to identify a suitable region and combine layers based on various scenarios. Discussion and Result: Through this method, seven scenarios including extreme pessimistic, very pessimistic, pessimistic, optimistic, very optimistic, extreme optimistic and natural were studied in relation to the potential to develop ecotourism. The acquired results are based on the normalized data with the interval of 0 to 1 as classified below: Very Low Proportion Low Proportion High Proportion Suitable Proportion 0-0.25 0.25-0.5 0.5-0.75 0.75-1 The results acquired from the above data through the OWA method will be presented later. The extreme pessimistic scenario was observed in 1022.8 sq. km of the proposed region with low proportion and 74.4 sq. km area with very low proportion. In the pessimistic scenario, a large part of Greater Lavasanat had very low proportion while another large part with low proportion. Based on extreme optimistic scenario, 1090.5 sq. km of the area were the most suitable and 6.75 sq. km with high proportion. In this scenario, the central core of Rudbar Ghasran and Lavasanat is located on a very suitable flank where conditions do not coincide with spatial and environmental realities. Based on natural scenario, 741.8 sq. km of the proposed study were related to an area with high proportion and 355.4 sq. km with low proportion. The central core, due to the location of two urban points of Lavasan and Feshm as well as their service and social facilities allocate the most area with high proportion.
    Conclusion
    Results from various scenarios indicate high proportion of the region for ecotourism development. The use of the OWA method gives managers and planners possibilities to study different scenarios in one region. The proposed model and the acquired results can be used by managers and planners as a decision-making backup structure in this domain and the extraction of suitable strategy toward ecotourism development.
    Keywords: sustainable ecotourism, multi-criteria evaluation, AHP, GIS, OWA
  • Shahryar Zaroki*, Hosna ezoji, Seyede Rogheieh Sadati Amiri Pages 96-121
    Introduction
    Increasing the welfare and reducing the poverty is one of the main objectives of economic development plans in any country and providing the desirable living conditions for all people is one of the most important tasks of the economic policy makers. On the other hand, tourism industry is known as one of the most influential industries of the world nowadays which causes the flow of capital and money in local, regional, national and international scales more than any other activities in the world. So, most of the countries consider the tourism, which has beautiful and diverse nature, customs, culture and historical background as its raw materials, as the best way to achieve their goals.
    The effect of tourism on employment, increase in foreign exchange earnings, prosperity of domestic industries, expansion of international cooperation and above all, on improvement of the living standards of people has changed the attitudes towards it. Accordingly, this industry can be considered as an effective one on economic welfare.
    Considering the impacts of tourism in different economic aspects, the present study seeks to answer the following questions: Basically in what way and to what extent does tourism value added affect the economic welfare in a selection of countries which include different groups? The other purpose of this study is that if there is a significant difference in the type and amount of effectiveness of tourism sector in economic welfare in different groups of countries. In other words, does classification of countries based on features such as fuel exporting, being among the top countries in terms of tourism and being among the developed countries that are members of the OECD, make any difference in the type of relationship between tourism and economic welfare? Material and Method: Based on the conducted studies, the research model of the present study is as a following equation: (1)
    Where IEWB is dependent variable and indicate the index of economic welfare. Tourist indicates the real value added of tourism sector. Considering the theoretical principles, the effect of this variable on economic welfare is obscure.
    GDP indicates the real gross domestic product. In this research, we used GDP per capita at constant 2010 prices. It is expected that the sign of this variable to be positive and statistically significant.
    Inf Indicates the inflation rate. In economic literature and based on the other studies, inflation has a negative effect on economic welfare in the short run, but in the long run this effect is not significant.
    Index of i indicates the 50 countries. In order to answer the questions, basic research model has been redefined in three following scenarios:First Scenario: this scenario tries to answer whether there is a difference between fuel exporting countries and other countries in terms of the type and amount of effectiveness of tourism sector on economic welfare.
    Second Scenario: this scenario tries to answer whether there is a difference between the top countries in tourism industry and other countries in terms of effectiveness of tourism sector on economic welfare.
    Third Scenario: this scenario tries to answer whether there is a difference between members of OECD and other countries in terms of effectiveness of real value added of tourism sector on economic welfare.
    It should be mentioned that the present study is a practical library research. The statistical population includes the countries for which the required information and data related to the index of economic welfare have existed. In this regard, the sample consist the countries that have the data related to other variables of the research model in addition to the information related to the index of economic welfare.
    Conclusion
    The present study investigates the effect of tourism sector on economic welfare in a selection of 50 countries in the form of a basic model and 3 scenarios in 2004 to 2016. For this purpose, we used panel data method. The results indicate that in accordance with theoretical expectations, the real value added of tourism sector and the gross domestic product has positive effects and inflation has negative effect on economic welfare. However, the type and amount of these effects are different in various groups of countries. Somehow that, because countries that are reliant on revenues from the sale of natural resources are usually less able to benefit from the potentials of tourism sector, in fuel exporting countries the positive effect of tourism on economic welfare is less than other countries. In this group, GDP increases economic welfare more than other countries. Also, the negative effect of inflation on economic welfare in fuel exporting countries is less than others.
    According to expectation, the positive effect of tourism on economic welfare in top countries in tourism industry is more than other countries. So that, one percent increase in real value added of tourism sector increases economic welfare in top countries in terms of tourism industry 0.155 percent more than other countries. This is because the existence of proper infrastructures in these countries makes greater utilization of tourism possible. Moreover, in this group, positive effect of GDP on economic welfare is higher than other countries, while there is no significant difference in the amount of negative effect of inflation on economic welfare.
    There is no significant difference between members of OECD and other countries in the amount of effectiveness of tourism on economic welfare. In this regard, in both groups, this effect is positive and equal, so that in both groups tourism sector affects economic welfare with the same coefficient (0.91). This is while the amount of the effects of production and inflation on economic welfare in members of OECD is different than other countries, so that the difference in the amount of positive effect of GDP is 0.196 and the difference in the amount of negative effect of inflation is 0.0006.
    The economy of Iran is classified in the group of fuel exporting countries, in which a lower effectiveness of tourism sector is observed. The reason stems from the fact that economies such as Iran, which are reliant on sale of natural resources, are usually less able to utilize the potentials of tourism sector. Moreover, due to the proceeds from the sale of national and intergenerational wealth, there is little interest in increasing the national income and consequently wealth accumulation through tourism in such economies. Accordingly, it is predictable that economies like Iran will face many problems in the future if they do not make appropriate and necessary efforts to create a proper environment for attracting tourists. Therefore, it is suggested that, by using the income from the sale of fossil resources such as oil and gas, the required infrastructures for tourism industry would be provided for the private sector. This policy can improve economic welfare via development of tourism sector.
    According to most researchers in the field of tourism economics, to create a fundamental change in tourism sector and consequently a greater effect of tourism on economy it is recommended that: first, along with breaking the state monopoly in tourism and other instances such as stipulating a precise definition of tourism economics, demonstrate and explain the contribution, role and position of private sector in tourism. Second, resolve the deficiency of accommodation areas through a medium-term plan. Third, in order to expand foreign tourism, policy makers consider the status of air transportation and
    Keywords: tourism, economic welfare, inflation, production, panel data
  • Mohammad reza Farzin *, Amir Afsar, Alireza Dabir, Ebtehal Zandi Pages 122-145
    Most management decisions at all levels of the organization directly or indirectly depend on the state of future prediction, and through the same prediction that one can imagine a success or a status in the future, thereby minimizing risk or making any adjustments and adaptations in the program (Inskeep, 2004).
    Introduction
    One of the most important events in the tourism industry of each country is the demand for a product or destination of tourism. But it should be noted that predictions can never match 100% of what happens in practice (Claveria & Torra,2014). There will always be distances and deviations between actual and predicted values, but the use of scientific and modern methods of forecasting will cause the results to reach far more than an objective estimate to the truth (Shen & Song,2011). In recent years, with the changing pattern of holidays and the formation of short-term holidays, cities have found the opportunity for tourism development.
    Materials and Methods
    One of the most important types of domestic tourism in Tehran, based on the statistics of the National Center of Statistics and the views of the experts in this area, is VFR tourism. A definition was proposed by Backer (2003: 4); ‘VFR Tourism is a form of tourism involving a visit whereby either (or both) the purpose of the trip or the type of accommodation involves visiting friends and/ or relatives.’ This definition encompasses all VFR typologies and was put forward as a model (Backer, 2008b) to aid in explaining VFR typologies.
    Source: Backer, 2008b
    As represented in the VFR Travel Definitional Model (table 1), VFRs can fall into a number of distinct groups. The category in the top left hand box depicts what could be considered to be the “pure” VFR, whose purpose is to visit their friends and or relatives and also stays with them. The lower left hand box depicts a less pure form of VFR traveler, who is staying with friends and relatives, but whose purpose of visit may be unrelated to VFR. This issue that VFR travelers can have a non-VFR purpose of visit when staying with friends or relatives has been discussed in previous research (Backer, 2003; Seaton & Palmer, 1997). Discussion and Results: For this purpose, the present study seeks to propose models for forecasting effective variables on forecasting domestic business tourism demand in Tehran. To do this, information was used between the years 2001 to 2015. Independent variable of this study is the number of domestic VFR tourists in Tehran, and dependent variables were selected based on Delphi and Fuzzy DEMATEL techniques. The model framework is a combination of regression, fuzzy neural network, and SVR algorithm, which combines these methods to measure forecast errors and compare the methods.
    Conclusion
    The results of this research show that the proposed hybrid approach of regression and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) can have better prediction than other methods for forecasting domestic VFR tourism.
    Keywords: regression, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), Support Vector Regression (SVR) Algorithm, VFR tourism, forecasting of domestic VFR tourism demand, Tehran
  • Safoura Gholami, Amir Gandomkar *, Razieh Fanaei Pages 146-168
    This study is aimed to investigate the effect of climatic hazards on the number of foreign tourists in Isfahan.To do that, we used statistics of total precipitation, absolute minimum of temperature, absolute maximum of temperature, maximum precipitation in 24 hour, number of dusty days, number of icy days and air quality index in IsfahanCity andstatistics ofNumber of foreign touristson monthly basis from 1382 to 1393 .So we used linear regression and Pearson Correlation .The results have shown that during the studied period thenumber of tourists has been affected more than other hazards respectively by air pollution, extreme heats, icy days, extreme cold, dust, drought and finally extreme precipitation .
    Introduction
    Tourism is one of the main sectors of the world economy and is heavily influenced by climatic and climate conditions.Therefore knowledge of the climate hazards in each region and its effects on tourism will play a significant role in tourism management and planning as well as increasing demand of the region tourists .Considering that exploitation of the environmental capabilities in each region can lead to the development of the region and , on the other hand, the climate is one of the main factors in the development of the regions;
    The study and identification of climate constraints and hazards to consider them in planning at various national , provincial and urban levels is important for tourism development.On the other hand, inappropriate weather conditions reduce positive aspects and attractions of a tourist area and cause adverse effects on tourism. Data and Methods: At first, the SPI method was used to investigate drought in Isfahan.Then using linear regression and Pearson correlation tests, the correlation between the studied parameters was done on the monthly and annual scale.In the following the correlations were done by a one-month, two-month, and one-year delay.
    Results
    The results of studies have shown that in the monthly scale the air quality index in during the months from Farvardin to Tir, Shahrivar and Esfand, extreme precipitation in Mordad, Mehr and Dey , the extreme cold in Aban, and extreme heats in Azar , more than other hazards have affected the number of foreign tourists.The correlation between the studied parameters with one-month delay also showed that the air quality index in Khordad , extreme precipitation in Aban and the extreme cold in Azar, more than other hazards have affected the number of tourists.During the two-month delay, dust in Mehr, extreme precipitation in Azar and the extreme cold in Dey , more than other hazards have affected on the number of tourists.In the annual scale, the extreme coldfrom 1382 to 1385 and 1387, extreme heats from1386to 1392 andfrosty in 1391, more than other hazards have affected on the number of tourists.During the one-year delay ,the extreme coldfrom 1383 to 1385, extreme heats from1386 and 1387, the air quality index in 1388 and the icy days from 1392 and 1393 were the most significant hazard to the number of tourists.
    Keywords: Isfahan , Drought , Extremely Cold , Tourism , weather hazards