نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 7 (زمستان 1396)

In this research, mathematical programming approach is applied to determine healthcare facility locations and to partition areas in defense systems in order to extend future studies. For this purpose, a mathematical model is presented whose goal is to optimize the process of transmitting injured persons in war time. In this model, population zones are partitioned into large groups, called districts. In any district, a healthcare center is present to service to injured persons. The objective functions of the problem are minimizing construction and reconstruction costs, and minimizing costs of transmitting injured persons. The problem contains three general classes of constraints: 1) constraints of sending injured persons between centers 2) constraints of assigning population zones to districts 3) constraint of satisfying feasible structures of districts. In order to solve the problem, the solver CPLEX, an efficient tool of optimization, is used. The results obtained from solving the problem can be used for future studies whenever operating defenses occur.

One of the characteristics of future wars is the plurality and diversity of actors and forces involved in the war, and the analysis of actors is a process by which actors are identified; their role and contribution in the intended program and the relationships of the actors are determined. To make Therefore, this research has been conducted with the aim of analyzing the main actors in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country to formulate controversy and possible ground warfare in the future.This research was exploratory and futuristic. In this regard, a panel of experts consisting of 11 tables of experts and experts in the field of war was formed and then interviewed with 9 senior officials associated with the situation in the region. Then, using the actor analysis method, the main actors in the future ground warfare in the area were identified and classified, and then the role of the actors and the relationship between them was identified.

Actor analysis is one of the most important methods in futures studies, actor analysis has a special status independently and with combination to other methods especially with scenario planning methods. Aim of this article is to design an actor analysis model based on stakeholders’ analysis models in management fields and specific actor analysis models in futures studies filed, in order to develop this model main factors from current models were discovered then the mentioned model was developed according to confirmed factors. Research methodology was based on Lynham’s methodology and data were collected from current theory and 14 expert's opinion which gathered from individual interview and expert panel. Results lead us to design attraction of intervention matrix (AIM) based on four index, power, type, tendency and time of actor intervention. This matrix categorizes actors into 5 area contain invaders, defenders, allies, merchants and hesitant and gain capability of actor analysis and strategy development. Attraction of intervention matrix was applied in Syria case in order to peruse capability of model in a real case, in order to rank actors, we used 5 methods including Simple Additive Method, Linear Assignment Method, TOPSIS, Taxonomy and Friedman test and utilized Copland methods to merge outcomes. Eventually results reveled in attraction of intervention matrix and 7 key actors including 5 allies (with positive strong power and continually intervention) and 2 invaders (with negative strong power and continually intervention) were marked and other actors were in groups with weaker power and delay in intervention.

Exacerbation of tension and regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is important to experimental forecast the situation of future arms race between these two countries. Accordingly, the main objective of this paper is experimental forecast the situation of arms race between Iran and Saudi Arabia during the years of 2018-2040. To this regard, first, a military demand function for both countries of Iran and Saudi Arabia is simulated and by using the data from years of 1963-2017 and the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, the military expenditures of the countries of Iran and Saudi Arabia are predicted for the period 2018-2040. Then, using these data and using a Richardson Arms Race Model and Canonical Co-integration Regression (CCR), the situation of arms race between Iran and Saudi Arabia is projected at 2040 horizons. According to forecasts, military spending in Iran and Saudi Arabia increase over the years 2040-2018, with a roughly upward slope (positive), which will be more significant for Saudi Arabia. The estimation of the Richardson model system of equations shows that there is an arms race between Iran and Saudi Arabia during the period of 2018-2040, so that, as a result of rising military spending on both sides, Saudi Arabia's response to military spending is much higher than Iran. A review of the situation of arms race also indicates an unstable arms race between Iran and Saudi Arabia during the years of 2018-2040.

A wild card is a future development or event with a relatively low probability of occurrence but a likely high impact on the conduct of business. Surprise, there are huge costs for organizations, especially military-defense organizations. One of the main concerns of all military-security organizations, Escape from these surprises and minimize these costs by predicting them. The main research question is: How can the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran identify and manage military wild cards? In this research; it is said that officers and military experts are not able to see many wild cards, because of their daily routines and habits of the organization's current trends. Military organizations need different mechanisms to extract and anticipate wild cards in their field of work. This study suggests that to understand military wild cards in the country, we need to combine: Brainstorming, Delphi for civilians, Expert panels and Environmental scanning. The result of combining these methods is the pattern that can be used for this purpose. This template has been designed in 6 steps: detection, identification, adaptation, estimation, scenario planning, outcomes, and strategy presentation, design and implementation of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Currently, most successful institutions in the developed countries use the technology scouting as a powerful tool for getting more information about the environment. Therefore, scouting the high technologies can be seen as the innovative factors affecting the product co-creation in the aerospace design center as well. Identification and ranking of the factors effective on the high technologies scouting in the aerospace design center have been addressed in this research. Factors and indicators affecting the technology scouting of products in two internal factors, including two components of the technological intelligence and the strategic intelligence, and one external factor including two components of the organizational intelligence, and the information communication and dissemination, were identified in this regard, considering the literature review and collecting the views of experts in the field of technology in the aerospace design center, through the questionnaire and interviewing tool and using the structural equation modeling by SMART-PLS software. Results of the structural equations indicate that 30 indicators affect the high technologies scouting in the aerospace design center, and the research model was approved by categorizing these indicators in two factors and four components, with the strong fit. Also, the results of the ANP indicate that the technological intelligence is in a higher priority than other components.