فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک
سال چهاردهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 51، پاییز 1397)

The role of local states in peace building and prevention from violence has not yet received much attention. But, this perception is changed in recent years and national and international actors see local states as actors who can be effective in peace building. The nature of war has changed markedly in recent decades. While interstate wars have largely decreased, intrastate conflicts have dramatically increased. The new paradigm is “war amongst the people”. Most of armed conflicts are intrastate conflicts occurred in communities divided by ethnicity, language, religion and geography. The change in the number and characteristics of the conflicts increases in the potentiality of local states in peace building. Increase in local conflicts create this question that how local states can be effective in peace building? Based on the compartmentalization of peace, local peace is the lowest one in term of scale, and local state is responsible for perpetual peace in local scale. Local state is in direct relation with the public and has complete awareness to local situations and also is more legitimate and qualified than national state in this domain. The main part of peace literature in the domain of the role of local state in peace building refers to the role of local state in the phases of in-conflict and post-conflict, and the role of local state in pre-conflict phase is neglected. So, the research using descriptive-analytic method is intended to find an answer to the question that “how local state can contribute to peace building in local and international levels and how would be its functions”? This article argue that local state can contributes to peace building in the three pre-conflict, in-conflict and post-conflict phases and its functions are different in these eras by keeping some prerequisites.

In the last decades and following the international changes, many countries and in particular China have come to this conclusion which it is necessary that they adopt themselves with the new international conditions and search for a new type of power in order to pursue their goals and interests. Since applying only one type of hard or soft power will endanger the long-term interests of the country, Chinese emphasis on this key point that they require a combination of both hard power and soft power which is well known as smart power in the international arena. With a descriptive-analytical method and the conceptual framework of smart power, this study intended to explain what kind of power is pursued in China's foreign policy to pursue its goals, and how they use various power sources for their own goals and interests. Over the past few decades, China's foreign policy has pursued two types of hard and soft power in the international arena. 1- Hard power: During these years, foreign policy along with other parts of the Chinese community has taken a lot of efforts to upgrade hard power sources. Economically, it has always sought to avoid international challenges and attract international resources for China's economic development process. Militarily, it has played a major role in China’s military modernization process 2- Soft power: Unlike Joseph Nye, China presented a wider definition of soft power and considered economic components as soft power. 3- The role of international institutions in the process of China's empowerment: At the moment, China's foreign policy is seeking to access their goals and interests through active participation in international organizations or the establishment of new institutions. 4- China’s economic attractions: China's foreign policy, in the framework of interdependence and win - win politics, is intended to pursue their political, security and economic interests in the regional and international arena. 5- China’s diplomacy: By pursuing comprehensive diplomacy, China's foreign policy has expanded its interactions with the other countries and international organizations, and has applied such a tool to extend its influence, power and development. 6- China’s traditional culture: although the Chinese culture has grown less than other components of power, nevertheless china’s culture has a considerable influence on the regional level. Furthermore, it is worth to mention that the China's foreign policy seeks to expand Chinese culture and language through the Confucian institutions. China's foreign policy pursues many goals in the international arena. With regard to new international changes, it believes that a combination of soft and hard power helps to reach at politic, economic and security interests. As well, reaching to a great power position and confronting new international threats, they have to follow a new form of power called smart power that combines hard and soft power. Therefore, in recent decades, especially in the Xi Jin Ping period, pursues various forms of soft and hard power such as diplomacy, culture, military modernization, economic etc. on the agenda of china’s foreign policy. Conclusion The emergence of new international conditions has led the China's foreign policy to seek a new pattern of power and security. This new pattern will be achieved within the framework of combining various sources of power. Because pursuing hard or soft power alone, cannot protect the country's long-term goals. In the shadow of the smart approach, the Chinese find more opportunity to engage with international society and its organizations. Smart power also aids to provide fairly good picture of china in its relation with others and can better counteract the challenge of China's threat.

To answer the question, we relied on the sources among books, articles, media and think-tank reports. Based on the studies we have done, we firstly described the roots of the referendum and in the next step we analyzed the causes of the frustration. By using media reports we made a content analysis. So in sum, the method which has been used in this article is descriptive-analytic. To understand the causes of the referendum frustration, we utilized “Motivational Realism” and analyzed that political (not actual) Turkish government opposition, “Passive policy” of the U.S and “serious disagreement” of Iran and Iraq, stopped Barezani led project for an “Independent Kurdistan”. In other word, when Barezani was planning for referendum, he thought the U.S for standing against Iran’s influence, will support the move because Iraqi government was supposed to be on the Iran’s hand. According to KRG leaders’ evaluation, it was supposed Turkey government, as a result of flourished economic ties between Erbil and Ankara, will turn a blind eye to the referendum or even maybe support that. Regarding to Iran, KRG thought Iran will not have ability nor interest to dismiss the referendum because, Masoud Barezani repeatedly stated “an Independent Kurdistan will not threat neighboring countries integrity; in contrast it can help Iranian and Turkish government to solve their problem with their Kurds minorities”. And last but not the least, regarding to Iraqi government, Erbil officials was wrongly thinking that Baghdad which had received big blow from terrorism will not be able to confront with the Referendum and its outcomes. All these calculations were False. Regardless of passive policy which was taken by some Kurdish groups within KRG such as Gorran, the U.S administration insisted that “it is not a good time for holding referendum”. It means Washington was not considering Baghdad as “Iran’s Puppet State” so did not want it to be decompositioned. Ankara, in contrast of Kurdish separatist leaders’ calculations, at the political level, strongly opposed the referendum although never implemented its threats about cutting oil import or closing borders. Tehran, in such context, did not step straightly but after Baghdad’s request, did close the border and cut oil import. Obviously, I.R.I in political level strongly opposed the referendum and didn’t recognize its results. And Baghdad was not weak enough to give up; Hashd al-Shaabi, made Iraqi government strong enough to take military action against some Peshmerga positions, after political warnings. In such a context, Israel hidden and obvious supports from separatist Kurdish movement in Iraq would not be effective. So as the world saw, after holding referendum, nothing but frustration happened in KRG. What happened for Iraqi Kurdistan after the separate referendum showed KRG officials miscalculate regarding to other actors’ reaction to hold referendum. The only actor strongly supported the move was Tel- Aviv. Washington emphasized “it is not right time for holding referendum”. Ankara although did not act economically but politically, opposed referendum. Baghdad by PMF and Iran’s supports could take some limited military action and liberate some really important areas such as Kirkuk. After these failures, Separatists in KRG figured out that they cannot put the results of the referendum into the effect. That’s why separatist referendum in KRG resulted in frustration.

Impacts of geopolitical consequences, along with political, social, economic, and security conflicts and tensions caused by the drying of lakes are indisputable. Awareness of the key beneficiaries and authorities in national, regional, and local levels, challenges and biological problems of the region of Azerbaijan and the consequences of this biological crisis can considerably affect the national security. Using descriptive-analytical methodology to detect the results of the lake drying, a questionnaire was designed by the authors and filled out by specialists. The SPSS software and one-sample T-test was used to analysis the results. The findings of this study are discussed in the following headlines:1- The threat of Salt Storms: The dryness of the lake causes sedimentation of salt sediments and the emergence of a suitable repository for the formation of dangerous micro-organisms in the event of severe storms. The salt storm phenomenon causes the destruction of agricultural lands and increase in diseases such as asthma, cancer, etc.
2- Poverty and unemployment: Considering that the villagers are poorer they do not have the necessary knowledge to deal with the hazards, their vulnerability is also higher. Reducing regional economic activity will increase in unemployment, reduce the income of indigenous people, and as a result, increase in poverty.
3- Immigration: The drying of Lake Urmia will destroy thousands hectares of agricultural lands around the lake, the smallest consequence is unemployment and migration of nearly 3 million peoples in the provinces of East and West Azerbaijan.
4- The closure of the Conversion Industry: With the destruction of agricultural lands in the lake Urmia due to the drying of deep wells in agricultural lands, 34 conversion factories were closed just in West Azerbaijan province and caused irreparable effects in all economic, industrial, social, and cultural domains, and will cause compulsory immigration of villagers and marginalization around the cities.
5- Severe damage to Tourism: The drying of Lake Urmia has worsened the tourism situation in the region. In addition to the natural environment, the drying of the Lake Urmia affects the economic and social environment of the region, in recent years, with the continuation of the ascending trend of the lake water decline, witnessed the destruction of housing estates, recreational and residential complexes, the destruction of coastal infrastructure, the unemployment of local residents, migration of residents of the villages on the margin of the lake, reduce of the tourists arrival, reduce of the incomes of the region from the tourism industry. With the drying of Lake Urmia water, investment in the lake's tourism sector has become difficult, and other marine tourism facilities in this area are not possible.
6- Outbreaks of Diseases: Comparative studies on the world's dry Lakes indicate that the prevalence of various diseases in this area is probably due to the drying of Lake Urmia. Other disadvantages include: Increasing infant mortality rates, low birth weight, late maturity, anemia, respiratory diseases, immune system damage, neurological and behavioral changes, and infectious disease. These studies also confirm the emergence of social anomalies, general distrust in government performance, the challenge of managing regional space and ethnic, tribal conflicts and marginalization. In this research, it became clear that the most important political security consequences of the Lake Urmia drying are as follows: increasing tribal conflicts, general distrust about government performance, challenge of managing area space, increasing marginalization, development of social anomalies, damage to national integration and development, reducing the national security coefficient, increasing poverty and inequality, strengthening opposition groups, threatening existence and weakening national power. Based on the results of the one-sample T-test, field studies and library information, the impacts of ethnic and tribal conflicts, reduction in welfare level of the surrounding residents, reduction in tourism statistics, public distrust in government activities, high unemployment rates, challenges in managing the regional issues, deprivation of living in one’s favorite place, marginalization, increase in social disorders, damaging national integration and development, decrease in national security rate, poverty and inequality, closure of alternant industries, reinforcement of groups opposing the Islamic Republic, threatening the national entity and country survival, and attenuation of the national power were confirmed.

Considering this Fact that 11 September, 2001 incident had enhanced Iran regional status in the Middle East, and other regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey strived to limit Iran Regional power. Arab world Upheavals provided an opportunity for them to decrease in Iran regional power in the context of Sectarianism based on balance of power. This balance of power has been become more complicated after the involvement of Russia Federation and United States. Using descriptive–analytic and modeling method, we considered the impact of recent Arab World Upheavals on regional balance of power in the Middle East region. The Origin of Arab World Upheavals had been the authoritarian regimes in middle east region Following the recent Arab World Upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt, they lost the arising opportunity due to the failure in passing nation–state process in the past years; The recent Arab World Upheavals had intensified regional Balance of power between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East region; Turkey and Qatar enhanced their interactions with Russia and Iran as a result of their gap with Saudi Arabia; The United States had different foreign policy toward Middle East balance of power during Obama and Trump presidency; Russia had active role in Syria and Iraq following the recent Arab World Upheavals. After the 11 September 2001 incident Saudi Arabia and Turkey was not able to limit Iran enhanced regional power as a result of US Invasion to Iraq and creating new Shiite regime. The recent Arab World Upheavals provide an opportunity for regional Sunni power such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey to control the Iran increased regional power through the sectarianism based on balance of power supported by the US new Republican Government. But they could not realized their objectives and contain Iran arising power in Middle East. As far, Turkey and Qatar as the follower of moderate Islam increased in their interactions with Russia and Iran. The regional balance of power among Middle East powers following the recent Arab World Upheavals will not have a winner. It seems, it should be managed by regional or infra regional powers through their increased interactions in the region.

New regionalism is designed in the Donald Trump National Security Document. The main focus of the new regionalization of security is based on the patterns of "disputed conflict". The concept of "offshore balance" is central to Donald Trump's security policy in the regional environment.
The main question in the article is the following: "New American regionalism is based on what signs are formed and what is the security implication in the regional and international environment?" The hypothesis of the article points to this issue. Which states that "New American regionalism in Southwest Asia and the Arab Middle East is based on offshore equilibrium, which inevitably will lead to continued asymmetric and contingent conflicts in the Middle East security environment." In setting this article from the approach The structure and identity of Barry Buzan are used.
Donald Trump tries to organize new regionalism based on structural components. In such a process, there will be grounds for increased economic and strategic cooperation between the United States, Russia and China. The main focus of Donald Trump's security conflict is regional and sub-national affairs and actors.

The paper is intended to introduce and propose “digression theory”. The theory is capable of explanation and prediction of the regional system and all kind of social-political institution, system or coalition. Division/digression theory can predict the ultimate of systems and organizations according to some specific indexes. Particularly, the aim of the theory is explanation of the divergence challenges in regional systems as a geographical coalition. Digression theory has recognized the necessity and circumstances of an organ/member dividing from a coalition with introducing of logical hypothesis. Also, it has provided a logical criterion to study, explain and predict the present and future terms of regional systems by commencing principles, hypothesis, indexes and factors, analysis unit and scales. Below questions can be answered by the logical criteria of digression theory: How and why is made a digression or secession in a regional system? How can be predicted the future of a system in according of its behaviors? Which indexes, settings and positions can fortify an organ/member into dividing from a system? Which instances prove the developments along with the theory? What future can be predicted to the present regional systems with referencing to the digression theory? The paper is a fundamental research from the point of typology and from the purpose is a theory making (theorizing) in order to problem resolving (mental and philosophical problem) one. The analysis of paper is based on logical and epistemological theorem and reasoning. The paper’s references are absolutely improvisation.
Result and Digression theory has two main principals as follows:Extension and Secession: according to this principal all kinds of systems or organizations will be encountered by secession as well as extension. In other words, the bigger in quality and quantity, the bigger in separation and breaking. Increasing in the space and possibilities in an organization or system brings hardest competitions among the organ or members. Members of a system attempt to achieve in top of the hierarchy order and as a central positionality dominate on others. By increasing in tension and competition, the space of dividing and making of independent system is prepared.
Stability: This principal theorizes that foundation of systems determine the quality of their stability. From this perspective, all kind of systems are made from three foundations:1- Economic Oriented Systems (Systems are made from materialistic and economic indexes);
2- Security Oriented Systems (kind of systems which military and protective issues have made them);
3- Cultural Oriented Systems (coalition and organizing based on religion, thought, rituals and ideological commons).
The last one (cultural oriented systems) is the most stable, conservative and diehard among other three system foundations. Religion as a cultural system is the best example of stable cultural systems from the past to the present.
Division/digression theory has two fundamental hypotheses as follows:Philosophical hypothesis: Digression theory is based on primordial human nature. This nature in Islamic philosophy is called by “human as liberation entity”. According to this nature, human being cannot stand domination. This covenant is significant in that it asserts that an understanding of the origin of man is something deeply inherent to and natural within every person. Any disconnection from this memory is referred to as being ‘forgetful’ within the scripture, Hadith literature and commentary. The Quran constantly implores people to recall and remember. Scholars suggest that the call to remember throughout the Quran is in fact a call to remember this particular moment in their spiritual history. Suggestions are also made that where people recognize people with ease, it is usually as a memory from this event. There are many scholarly perspectives taken on the significance of this covenant. It is understood as marking the beginning of human consciousness with mankind making their first conscious response to the divine question 'Am I not your lord?'. Some also see it as being relevant to the Islamic principle of unity as the entirety of mankind was said to have been assembled on the plane on this date. Logical hypothesis: Reasonable and logical assumes of the theory are such as bellows: existing of a central-periphery structure, being of relatively hegemonic relations in the structure, will and power to division and digression, possibility and feasibility of dividing and digression, ex-systemic relations and moods, an aggressive organ or member. Centre-periphery orders bring some disputes and tensions between the members of a system. By increasing in central domination some of the members with feasible indexes decide to be divided, indexes like strong economy and capitals, political parties and structures, historical-cultural wealth, outer systemic relation and interest in other members in other systems and finally, third outer systemic member intervention. The historical examples like Islam Prophet dividing Pre-Arabic system and Iranians dividing Pro-Arabic system are some most instances of digression. According to the digression theory, it is predicted that along with Qatar, states such as Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Oman will be divided from Persian Gulf Council Corporation (GCC). Also, in European Union along with Britain other states will be separated such as Poland, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Norway.

The phenomenon of ISIL as the latest covert of terrorism has expanded into new dimensions of the possibility of spreading brutal violence. This phenomenon is known as a new threat to existing order in three areas of territory, population and state type and making it an unpredictable phenomenon. Regardless of the necessity of designing for a post-conflict encounter with this flow, it should be for the existential reasons of such thinking, it began to face and collide at the same stage of the cause. Because unbridled terrorism, like ISIS, has had an unlimited reaction to its surroundings, which has turned it into a security hurdle, even for countries that are thousands of kilometers from its geographical range. Under these circumstances, it is likely that, by eliminating ISIL from the military and political equations of the world, yet due to lack of attention to the foundations of ISIS, other examples of this would lead to security crises in the world. The method of research in this research has been based on the "historical method" and "descriptive method" due to the historical origins and dimensions of the formation of ISIS and its reaction to the phenomenon of the existing world order. The library method is used to collect data. And descriptive sections have also been analyzed. ISIL's geopolitical efforts can be considered as an answer to the political economic performance of Central Asian countries towards marginalized countries, given the colonial and historical exploitation of the centuries and the lack of recognition of the cultural identity of the nations enclosed by the central powers. ISIL's phenomenon as an emerging trend has brought about great changes in the Middle East region, especially around the world. The question of this research is that from a geopolitical point of view, Isis's actions regarding the economic and cultural order - the identity created by the dominant and centralized countries, is analyzed? The findings of this study indicate that the geography of the birth and growth of ISIS is related to peripheral and exploited countries, especially in the Middle East, According to Wallerstein's theory of the Welshstein system and Taylor's identification policy, it can be said that ISIS is attempting, in the form of violent terrorism, to act as a "legitimate defense" and justify its geopolitical reaction in three areas of land and border, population and nation, and government and system Political among Sunni Muslims and Muslims with Sunni radical tendencies.