نشریه علوم محیطی
سال چهاردهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 54، زمستان 1395)

According to the extent of the oil and gas industry and their role in environmental pollution, developing a strategic plan to improve environmental performance is essential. Therefore action taken to reduce environmental effects to acceptable range and within the rules and regulations about the environment is studied. Advanced methodologies should be used to achieving a certain level of reliability. Therefore to reduce the environmental aspects and impacts in various industries, especially oil and gas industry, the new strategy must be established. The purpose of this research is to develop environmental strategies in oil and gas South Pars 2. this research can be a base to Develop an appropriate strategic management program in order to comply with environmental laws and regulations further provide for similar plants in the region. The evaluation matrix results show that internal and external factors of studied refinery have more strengths than weaknesses and are more opportunities than threats. So this company should follow strategy and procedures to omit threats and minimize weaknesses. Finally, we selected 11 strategies and graded them, that region environmental conditions improvement strategy with a score of 6.23 and revising and reforming strategy of management programs and minimizing environment pollutants of the region with a score of 5.23, and the strategy of development and improvement the quality of wastewater and solid wastewater and solid waste management using environmental new technologies with score of 5.01 priorized respectively as the top environmental strategies. Findings and results indicate the position of the organization is a competitive position and it must apply strategies, maintaining, and stability, in ordr to reduce environmental damages,

Due to the water shortage and location of Iran within an arid region, the total costs of maintaining urban green space is dramatically high. Most of the plant species cultivated in the urban green spaces of Iran are exotic and need a high amount of resources. Native species, in contrast, are adapted to the soil conditions and temperature fluctuations, and also need much less water. This research was aimed at the domestication of Melica persica Kunth, a perennial grass native to the mountains around Mashhad city. This species was considered because of being native and also for its attractive inflorescence and growth form. Seeds of M. persica were collected from Dehbar village (14 Km from Torghabe-Shandiz, 59 17' 23" N, 36 15' 04"E) in July 2014 and planted under three germination treatments within a germinator (in 23-27 ºC), in pots (green house) and by direct seedling transplanting. The germination and growing percentages for these treatments were 96, 58/5, and 25/5 percent, respectively. All the plants were cultivated in Ghadir nursery in Mashhad. The survival rates of this species were recorded under two treatments of pot and direct plantings. The phenological stages were monitored during the growth season of 2014-2015, both in the natural habitat and within the Ghadir station at Mashhad. In the two years of 2014 and 2015, temperature, time and number of days were different. The different stages of phenology, such as early flowering, flowering and seeding received the same GDD. The energy required each phenological stage in the different years was almost the same and, if there was any between them it was because it was not possible to go daily to the growing areas and record the phenological stages. There were just differences in transplanting and direct methods and this could be due to the different conditions of the plant and environment. Researche studies by Azimi et al. (2012), Azarnivand et al. (2012) and Mirhaji and Sanadgol (2007) on the effect of growing degree-day (GDD) and soil moisture on Stipa hohenackeriana in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, on the effect of GDD on phenology and growth of Onobrychis melanotricha, and on the whole required temperature range for phenological stages of a number of important species in the grasslands research station Homand showed that environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall and humidity can influence these stages. The phenological stages were almost similar under the three treatments, in other words they were totally dependent on the seasonal changes in temperature. An important point in the phenology of Melica persica was seen both under natural conditions and in the test site (Ghadir station,59 36' 55"N, 36 14' 31" E), re-growth during autumn occurred for those plants growing at the Ghadir station, which was well irrigated, but not for plants growing within the natural field; these results showed the degree by which water is more available for plants, it effects the freshness of the plants and causes them to grow longer. Results of this research indicate the possibility of domesticating M. persica for sowing it in the urban green space. M. persica could be suitable for rock gardens and mountain views because of its form. The best method for planting this species is by transplanting. The percentage of germination, establishment and survival was good and attractive in spring and summer and autumn

The harsh and stressful growing environment of extensive green roofs means that only a limited range of plant species is routinely used. This paper describes an experiment for investigating suitable plants for extensive green roofs in Mashhad during the natural cold of autumn and winter in the form of a complete block design and, after that, during the warm season (drought stress) with three irrigation interval treatments (48, 72 and 96 hours) in the form of a factorial experiment based on a complete block design with four replicates. The results of both experiments showed a significant effect in the different seasons. Agropyron cristatum, Frankenia thymifolia and Carpobrotus edulis showed the best visual quality among the plants examined. From the survival point of view, Carpobrotus edulis showed the best performance for both cold and warm seasons and Frankenia thymifolia and Potentilla sp. follow the same manner. Vinca minor was good under cold conditions and Sedum spurium was observed to be an excellent choice for the warm season. Grass plants and groundcovers need regular irrigation during the warm season and showed significant differences regarding watering treatments. However, a very good response to drought was shown in the Sedum spurium plant. Overall succulent and groundcover plants are, respectively, considered good for the warm and cold seasons while grass plants are not properly suited. According to the results of this study, green roofs can be advised as sustainable green structures for Mashhad’s climate with certain considerations.

The production and development of biofuels can occur naturally in rural areas in the life of rural people and cause dramatic changes, both directly and indirectly. Energy is essential for socio-economic development and improving the quality of life in Iran and other counties (Demirbas, 2008; Yazdanpanah et al., 2015b). Since the production of biofuels is dependent on the agricultural sector, agricultural professionals and experts represent an important source of information for farmers regarding their adoption and innovation. They can facilitate the adoption of innovations or they can limit their diffusion (Bakhtiyari et al., 2017). The aim of this study is to set out the factors affecting agricultural experts’ willingness for the extension and development of biofuels in Khuzestan Province using the artificial neural networks method, and to determine the best method for predicting agricultural experts’ willingness for this. The study used a cross-sectional survey design. The HBM was quantitatively tested using the survey methodology to understand professionals’ perceptions. The research sample was selected based on quota stratified random sampling (n= 288). The questions were scored on a 1–5 point scale (very low, low, moderate, high and very high) and the survey was conducted among agricultural professionals during February 2015. Data were collected through personal interviews based on a questionnaire structured to assess the central components of the HBM. Afterwards, the completed questionnaires were collected. The questionnaire's internal reliability was tested using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. All scales indicated excellent reliability, generally between 0.76–0.9. Finally, the validity (final step) of the questionnaire was approved by a panel of experts. Results showed that energy policy, the perceived benefits of renewable energy, the perceived severity of threats from fossil fuels and the cue to action and self-efficacy constructs can predict experts’ willingness. The agricultural sector is the main sector to produce the inputs and resources for the production of biofuels. Thus, farmers represent key stakeholders in the process of a transition towards a higher share of renewable energy. Taken into account that biofuels are a newly emerging technology, it is crucial to provide farmers with sufficient information about this technology and its benefits and risks, in order to increase their willingness to produce biofuels. Here, agricultural professionals play an important role in informing and educating farmers about innovations. The aim of this study is to provide much-needed empirical data about the attitudes of Iranian agricultural professionals towards biofuels. Our analysis revealed that that energy policy, the perceived benefits of renewable energy, the perceived severity of threats from fossil fuels and the cue to action and self-efficacy constructs can all predict experts’ willingness.

Precipitation is one of the most important atmospheric elements in any climate, and the world climate is categorized on the basis of this climatic element. In some climates, precipitation occurs in all seasons while, in others, precipitation only occurs in cold seasons; in yet other climates, it occurs during warm seasons. In most regions that are adjacent to sub-tropical high pressure systems, precipitation occurs only at specific periods of the year. All regions that are located to the North of this system have precipitation during cold seasons although, in practice, the beginning and end of precipitation is not fixed. Sometimes, periods of precipitation occur and, in some years, end much later or sooner than normal. Therefore, in some years, the precipitation period is very short. In the south and southwest of Iran, the period of precipitation and cultivation coincide. Therefore, in this climate region, periods of precipitation are used directly by plants and agriculture products. When the precipitation period is shorter than normal, a part of the plants’ water needs is not provided, and the water resources of the region are influenced intensively by this fact. In this research, first, the daily precipitation data of synoptic stations in South and Southwest Iran (including Provinces such as Khuzestan, Kohkilooye-boyerahmad, Lorestan, Busheher, Hormozghan, Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari, Fars and Ilam) over a 36-year period were extracted. In the next step, the start and finish of precipitation periods were determined according to agricultural years in Iran which begin in October. In order to determine the length of the precipitation period in the stations of the south and southwest of Iran the days between start and end of precipitation were calculated. Then, those years in which the precipitation period length was less than 160 days were analyzed as short periods of precipitation. Figure 2 shows the condition of the years investigated in respect of the shortest precipitation period length. Then maps at levels of 700 and 850 HPa were produced for all selected samples from ECMWF data with a resolution of 0.25*0.25 using a scrip in Grads software. The locations of daily cells of sub-tropical high pressure were identified in the selected sample and mapped using ARDGIS10.3 software. The basic component analysis method was used for identifying the pattern of the shortest precipitation period length. Applying basic components analysis to the sea level pressure data led to omission of the patterns with very low repeatability, and patterns having higher repeatability were classified. In this research, the first fifteen components of sea level pressure with 0.934 percent total variance were justified. Finally, the topographic maps and subtropical jet stream for the selected components at levels including 700, 850, 1000, 500, 250 and 300 were analyzed. The investigations were conducted on the central cores of the Saudi Arabia high pressure cell in November as the beginning month of precipitation, and March as the end month of precipitation in years with a short precipitation period; these showed that even in November, which was the second precipitation month in the region, the high pressure central core did not have suitable eastward and southward movements. This synoptic pattern caused a situation that even in the second precipitation month, the Saudi Arabian subtropical high pressure system prevents the entrance of Sudanese low pressure, as the most important precipitation system in the region, into the southern and south-western regions of Iran. Meanwhile, the westward movement of high pressure caused a situation where the Mediterranean trough did not extend to lower latitudes. Therefore, the Mediterranean system cannot enter the region. The location of the central core of Saudi Arabian subtropical high pressure showed that the high pressure central cores had earlier westward movement than in other years while, in March, the high pressure nucleus should be located in the East of Saudi Arabia and on the Arabian Sea and Sea of Oman. This westward movement caused a situation whereby Sudanese and Mediterranean low pressure exited the precipitation route of the region earlier than normal; in other words, the precipitation stopped sooner than usual. In these years, the main controlling system in the region was the Siberian high pressure system. During the short period precipitation years, the southern ridge of the Siberian high pressure system in combination with Saudi Arabian high pressure have had a significant southward extension, so that it is extended to the South of the Saudi Arabian peninsula and sometimes to Ethiopia at the lower levels of the atmosphere. In such situations, the Sudanese low cannot enter South and Southwest Iran through its normal routes. As a result, the Sudanese system moves to the West, and enters the eastern Mediterranean with a northward movement and, passing over Sudan and Egypt, and combines with Mediterranean cyclones. In this situation, precipitation occurs later than usual. Saudi Arabian subtropical high pressure plays a fundamental role in the beginning and ending of precipitation periods in the South and Southwest of Iran. With regard to the yearly movement of this high pressure (westward and northward movement during warm periods of the year, and southward and eastward movements during cold periods of the year), it plays a determining role in the beginning and ending of precipitation in this region. For the entrance of the Sudanese system into the south and southwest of Iran, this high pressure system should have a southward movement in order to leave this region and have an eastward movement to provide the necessary conditions for its entrance into this region. But it is observed that in years when the precipitation period in this region is short, the aforementioned system leaves Iran much later, and it has a low eastward movement.

Absorptive wells are one of the most common forms of onsite sanitation facilities in many developing countries. These latrines are suitable as a means of isolating human waste; however, conditions within pits often lead to nitrification of the contained waste. In areas with a near-surface aquifer, the potential for nitrate pollution arising from Absorptive wells cannot be ignored. In this study, Hypothetical aquifer was made, to gather relevant information about the Absorptive wells in use and the soil and groundwater underneath the Hypothetical aquifer. Modeling was then conducted to demonstrate the potential for nitrate pollution of the groundwater from the latrines in such settings. The depth from the bottom of the pits to the water table was considered as 5, 10 or 30 m, to represent the range of aquifer depths at the study sites. Nitrate half-lives ranging from 500 to 1500 days were considered, and time scales from 6 months to several years were modeled. The results highlighted the high likelihood of nitrate pollution of groundwater reaching levels exceeding the World Health Organization guideline value for nitrate in drinking water of 50 mg/L after as short a period as two years for the aquifer situated 5 m below the pits, when considering moderate to long nitrate half-lives in the subsurface. Careful siting of latrines away from high water table areas, more frequent pit emptying, or switching to urine diversion toilets may be effective solutions to reduce nitrate passage from Absorptive wells into groundwater, although these solutions may not always be applicable, because of social, technical and economic constraints. The study highlights the need for more reliable data on the typical nitrate concentrations in Absorptive wells and the nitrate half-life in different subsurface conditions.

Transportation in cities has always been a matter of interest to people. However, following the Industrial Revolution, the unprecedented increase in urbanization and the emergence of various means of transportation, the importance of transportation is greater than ever before. Today, transportation is one of the most important and influential infrastructures and it allows for the development of society while, at the same time, it is under the influence of development; this is the reason why managers and city planners pay close attention to transportation. Despite the focus of transportation planners on accessibility and other dynamic aspects of urban transportation, however, the side effects on the environment have been severely neglected. Stable transportation has economic, social, and environmental factors and stability is achieved by considering all these factors simultaneously. The city of Qom, as an important city for religion and tourism, needs to organize and manage it in a way that does not conflict with other developments or the environment. In order to achieve this, after studying the sources the environmental indicators relating to transportation were found and five important indicators identified. Rating these indicators was done according to location and with GIS mapping of Qom's transportation systems and expert opinions. In order to do this, the map of Qom was entered into a grid and indicators in each grid cell were evaluated separately. The final status of each cell was specified using MATLAB software and a genetic algorithm. To be able to achieve an optimal environment requires changes in the road network or changes in user locations that are more sensitive to the pollution caused by transport. The results showed that 30% of grid cells were in a bad condition, 30% in an average condition and 40% in a good condition from the point of view of their environmental situation. The results for the transport network demonstrated that it can be well optimized and the map shows that transfer of a part of the users, especially in residential areas in the area around the city and with less pollution, resulted in marked changes in the proportion of grid cells. As a consequence, the majority of cells with a score of 3 points (bad) to 1 (good) would change their status so that only 10% of the cells would then be placed in a bad condition in terms of the environment. Thus, transfer of a part of the users from downtown to surrounding areas would be a good strategy for reducing the impacts of pollution from transport.

Sense of place is one of man's emotional reactions to the environment that link person to the place and forms the person's identity and place. Children's educational environment after the home and family puts the highest level of communication to interact with the children and sense of place attachment provides differences to the delight go back to school and stay in it that such fundamental factors are linked student to learning environment. On the other hand the lack of quality and quantity of green space environment of our school country have made this environment to soulless places with non-attractive materials and building for children. The aim of this study was to answer the question that basically what significant association between green environment schools and sense of place is established? In this study it was tried first with using library studies act to explain the sense of attachment and its role in the children's learning environments; and then using field studies in a questionnaire manner; prove Assumptions at the beginning of the study by analyzing data from questionnaires in SPSS. In this questionnaires both a sense of attachment to school and relation with green space school (with various factors that including: "sensual relation with green space", "participation in the creation of green space" and "educational relation with green space") were measured. It is composed of two parts: descriptive statistics and hypothesis testing. In descriptive statistics it is obvious direct connection between relation with green space school and sense of attachment to school. Witness of this is the ratio level of green space schools with children's sense of attachment; that has been achieved from the questionnaire distributed among students. In hypothesis testing each of the hypotheses will be examined that with using quantitative manner from both correlation test and multivariate regression method in prove hypothesis. The main hypothesis of research is proved with correlation (/649) that this indicates a positive and strong relationship between "relation with green space school" (in different levels) and "sense of attachment to school". As well as sub assumptions of research are proved with acceptable significant and correlation coefficient. At last, the result has been concluded that there are significant connection between relating with green space school in different levels including: "sensual relation with green space", "participation in the creation of green space" and "educational relation with green space", with sense of attachment to school in children. Sensual relationship with green space cause cognitive fluency on place by creating direct involvement (with all senses of perception and) and experience-driven; that this cause sense of intimacy and attachment to place. Participating in the creation of green space excites a self-esteem and sense of ownership towards the environment in children that Facilitates the belonging to a place. Also educational relation with green space is other cases where the outdoors and nature as a learning environment or teaching and learning resource is raised.

Caspian Sea sturgeons are a valuable economic resource, a rare species and unfortunately endangered. In response to these factors, the present study assesses the preservation value of Caspian Sea sturgeon by applying two-stage Heckman models in order to analysis and compare individual willingness to pay. The sample size was calculated by a simple stochastic sampling method and then all the analyses were performed using information from 358 One-and-One-half-Bound Dichotomous questionnaires. The results show that, although the two-step Hackman method can distinguish the factors affecting a willingness to pay and factors affecting the accepted level of cost. The average value of willingness to pay as based on Heckman‘s two-step approach is 15,311 Rials per month per household. The preservation of annual value use as based on Heckman's two-step approach is 336.8 Million Rials.

Oil contamination is an inevitable consequence of rapid population growth. The non-stop usage of oil resources on a large-scale is increasing and it is a major cause of pollution. In the present study, nickel and zinc pollution as heavy metals found in the waste from petroleum product storage tanks was investigated. Sampling was conducted randomly and from six different types of oil tanks based on the type of products manufactured, and repeated three times for each tank. Since the samples were aggregated into three different phases (organic, watery, watery and organic phases), a special method of analysis was used for each phase. The results showed that the average concentrations of nickel and zinc in the waste of the storage tanks were 141.5 mg/l and 087.7 mg/l, respectively. The comparison of waste concentrations with the standards of the environmental protection agencies of America and Iran showed that, in 25% of samples, the nickel concentration is higher than the standards while 75% of samples have the equal or smaller nickel concentration. Also, the Zinc concentration was higher than the standards in 20% of samples. Finally, with regard to the importance of the ecological status of the Shazand area, control of heavy metal pollution and monitoring of waste oil reserves in the region is emphasized, which requires accurate and timely management in order to prevent an increase in these pollutants.

Petroleum hydrocarbons releases into the groundwater resources (both in saturated and unsaturated porous media) as a consequence of accidental spills during the transport, refining and storing stages especially in oil producing countries. There is no study related to cleaning of oil polluted groundwater in Iran due to the complexity of conditions governing groundwater aquifers. Benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene isomers (known as BTEX) are the most dangerous among other hydrocarbons due to their high solubility and carcinogenic potential. This research is aimed at the bioremediation kinetics modelling of BTEX contaminated groundwater. Bacteria isolation was performed by enrichment of polluted groundwater samples taken from the site of Tehran Oil Refinery. The Pseudomonas sp. BTEX-30 strain was selected among isolated bacteria for biodegradation kinetic modelling due to its high performance in BTEX biodegradation. Kinetic experiments were carried out in 500 ml glass vials with Teflon screw caps to prevent any BTEX vapour leakage. Upstream unpolluted groundwater was selected as the base solution and pH values of samples were adjusted to 7.6. Samples were incubated in a vertical rotary shaker with 100 rpm, 35 centigrade degrees for 72 hours. Kinetic experiments were performed for the single substrate with a concentration of 250 mgL-1 and the mixed substrate with a concentration of 500 mgL-1 BTEX (1:1:1:1). Different moisture contents were used to find the optimum moisture content for the biodegradation in the unsaturated zone. Results show the Monod equation had the best fit for the experimental kinetic data. Maximum specific biodegradation rates in single substrate experiments were 0.45 h-1, 0.43 h-1 and 0.35 h-1 for benzene, toluene, and ethylbenzene, respectively. Pseudomonas sp. BTEX-30 strain was not able to degrade m-xylene in single substrate experiments and the maximum specific biodegradation rates in the mixed substrate experiments were 0.44 h-1, 0.45 h-1, 0.38 h-1 and 0.33 h-1 for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and m-xylene, respectively. m-Xylene was degraded in mixed substrate experiments in the presence of benzene and toluene due to Increased cell growth and introduction of the enzymes incorporating in m-xylene degradation. Pseudomonas sp. BTEX-30 strain was able to degrade BTEX compounds in liquid and unsaturated soil with 20% soil moisture; however, the optimum soil moisture content for biodegradation was obtained at 60 %.

Increased environmental pollutants caused by industrial development, population, urban construction, the increased use of synthetic materials and chemicals as well as climate change have, in recent decades, led to air pollution becoming an important issue in the field of conservation of cultural property for scientists and conservation and restoration experts in the world. Furthermore, the role of air quality in the preservation of historical objects and art works in museums has been one of the fundamental topics of the preventive conservation of museum collections. However, considering adverse effects such as corrosion, reduced fibre strength and changing colour due to gaseous pollutants emitted by traffic and industry, NO2 and SO2 levels were monitored and assessed in the Library and Malek National Museum and in the Museum of Reza Abbasi in the centre and North of Tehran. Sampling of the aforementioned pollutants using Palmes passive sampler tubes was carried out in exhibition halls, display cases and storage areas in the museums, twice in the summer and winter of 2012-2013. For this purpose, three tubes were used to take samples from each location. One of the tubes as a reference was completely closed. Nitrogen dioxide was absorbed by TEA:Triethanolamine and measured using ultraviolet spectrophotometry (Byanju et al. 2012). The concentration of sulphur dioxide was measured by using ion chromatography with KOH used as an adsorbent (Lopez-Aparicia et al. 2010). Simultaneously, temperature and relative humidity inside the display cases and exhibition halls were measured by data loggers for a year and at intervals of 15 minutes. Air exchange rate (AER) of the enclosures can be measured via the tracer gas technique over 24-hour periods. In this project, CO2 was used as the tracer gas and Vaisala, GM70, GMP222 as the detector inside the case. The results of micro climate measurements show that temperature and relative humidity and their fluctuations in the museum, especially RH, are affected by the external environment. This indicates a much to high air exchange rate with the outside and the lack of an efficient mechanical ventilation and air conditioning system at the museums. Comparison of the results measurements shows that the concentration of pollutants in the Reza Abbasi Museum is more than in the Malek National Museum. The concentration of NO2 is greater in summer than winter and, vice versa, the concentration of SO2 is higher in winter than summer. Also, the concentration of pollutants in both museums is higher than museum standards. Considering the air exchange rate of the display cases and the concentration of gaseous pollutants at the museums, although the display cases are semi-airtight which reduces the concentration of nitrogen dioxide, surprisingly the concentration of sulphur dioxide outside them has no significant difference. It should be noted that, according to the type of objects and display case materials (glass and metal), there are no sources for these pollutants in the display cases. This study shows the situation of the museums in the urban setting and vicinity to major and crowded streets as well as the air exchange rate play an important role in the concentration of air pollutants in these indoor environments. Furthermore the results show that the concentration of SO2 and NO2 in both museums is higher than standards for the conservation of museum collections. Due to adverse effects of the pollutants, implementing a preventive conservation program is recommended and specific recommendations in this regard will be discussed in a separate article.

Forests are natural resources most of which are destroyed each year by fire. One way to deal with forest fires is to identify the hot spots in forest fires in the region. This phenomenon destroys hectares of trees, shrubs and plants annually, with an annual average of six to fourteen million hectares of the world's forests estimated to be damaged by fires. This reveals the need for research in this area in order to preserve this invaluable resource. Manesht and Qalarang Protected Area is located in the northern Province of Ilam, covering Chardaval and Ivan. The research aims to assess the level of fire hazard in this protected area using network analysis and geographic information systems. This will apply the most important factors in the process of forest fires according to experts and researchers in these areas, including 9 factors, such as the density of vegetation, rainfall, temperature, slope, aspect, distance from the road, distance from the village height and distance from the river. In the process of modelling for the evaluation of forest fire risk, a sensitivity model network analysis was conducted over three stages and, in this way, the structure of the model was formed in the SuperDecisions software. The matrix of pairwise comparisons was performed using all of 1 to 9 and, then, the super matrix was prepared. Finally, the criteria weighting was determined. The results from this study showed that weighting of criteria for density of vegetation, rainfall, temperature, slope, aspect, distance from the road, distance from the village, elevation and distance from the river to the values were 0.294, 0.226, 0.134, 0.121,0.075,0.051, 0.041, 0.29 and 0.025, respectively; hence, density of vegetation, rainfall, temperature and slope had the greatest weight. Finally, by combining the layers according to the weights obtained in ARC GIS software, a zoning map was prepared. The results showed that the top 50% of regions with dense vegetation, southerly directions and slopes greater than 20 percent are prone to fire hazard. The southerly and easterly directions were determined as receiving the maximum amount of sunlight. Approximately 30 square kilometers (10 percent) of the total area of the 62 square-kilometer area were in the very high risk class (20%) in terms of the probability of fire. So it is essential that measures be taken to prevent the occurrence of fire in these areas. In this research, the zoning map was classified in the five classes of very small, low, medium, high and very high. The results showed that, according to maps from the running model, slopes greater than 20 percent, southerly and easterly directions and areas where vegetation density is over 50 percent are among the areas with high and very high risk of likelihood of fires occurring. It is therefore essential that in these areas the necessary measures be taken to prevent the possibility of fire.