مجله تحقیقات منابع آب ایران
سال چهاردهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 46، زمستان 1397)

The precipitation is a important parameter in hydrology cycle and it data deficiency is from the biggest of problems in climate analysis and hydrologic. So researchers using of satellite product result from remote sensing as a science solution for estimation of precipitation have raised.in the research have been paid to evaluation of precipitation data of PERSIANN and CMORPH satellite in Shapoor basin. So was used from daily and hourly precipitation data of Shopoor basin stations and around. Evaluation index for daily and hourly scales was evaluated and analyzed. The result is showing that PERSIANN and CMORPH don’t have enough accuracy in hourly and daily scale. Also, with comparison daily data of 41 rainfall event of satellites, observed and Kriging method for target station (Boushigan Kazeroon). The result is showing lower accuracy of satellite models than Kriging method. Observed data correlation in hourly and daily scale with CMORPH than PERSIANN is more (in daily scale correlation coefficient 0.196 and 0.286 for CMORPH and PERSIANN respectively). Also the result is showing although CMORPH method has more correlation with observed data in hourly scale, but in detection of rainy days number (POD index) PERSIANN model has proposed better result.

Water resources systems are facing with changes in terms of natural and socio-economic aspects. As a result, water resources management should be prepared for the future possibilities, rather than relying on the predicting of probabilities. Hence, the management approach should tend towards the mechanisms which can promote understanding and adapting to changes. That school of thoughts which is based on versatility with changes is known as adaptive management. From this perspective, adaptation to change is a priority for the adaptive management. One of the main features of an adaptive structure, is its capacity to adapt to change. Thus, this study aims to assess the adaptive capacity of the local organizations in Tashk –Bkhtgan Basin versus water scarcity. The adopted methodology is based on the Adaptive Capacity Wheel. The required data were gathered using questionnaires and structured interviews. The results show that a relatively negative adaptive capacity within the local organizations. That means there are gaps among the local organizations to deal with the negative effects of new conditions that need to be repaired.

Precipitation is a major component of the hydrological cycle and is a crucial forcing data for hydrological and agricultural models. Great efforts have been made to generate gridded precipitation products, thereby leading to the increased availability of precipitation datasets at different spatial and temporal resolutions over the globe. This study provides an intercomparison of daily precipitation of four high spatial resolution gridded precipitation products (PERSIANN-CCS, CHIRPS, CFSR and AgMERRA) and that simulated by RegCM4 model and their evaluation against observational data over eight spring seasons (2003-2010) in the Qazvin Plain. Statistical evaluation of three convective precipitation schemes (Ku, Emanuel, and Grell) coupled in RegCm4 showed that Ku is the best scheme for spring precipitation modeling in the region. Based on continuous statistical indices, AgMERRA shows relative superiority to other products and RegCM. Categorical statisticsal indices indicated that CFSR performs better in detecting rainy days, but AgMERRA in detecting the non-rainy days and determining rainy and non-rainy days. Results showed that compared to other precipitation products, AgMERRA, in general, is closer to the observed daily precipitation during the spring over the Ghazvin Plain.

According to different indexes Iran is facing with the water crisis. The climate has been changed and the previous methods and approaches are no longer sufficient to deal with Iran's wicked water problem. Solving the water crisis requires adopting with new climate and water resource situations. This paper distinguishes between water scarcity as a climatic phenomenon and a water crisis. Water crisis is the crisis of water governance which is not able to deal effectively with water scarcity. From the governance point of view, there are some institutions, formal or informal, which formulate the water policies and implement them so governance reform can be done through regulating and capacity building of these institutions. This paper with the aim of evaluating the one of formal water institution in Iran would introduce the Adaptive Capacity Wheel Model. The Model has 6 dimensions and 22 criteria for evaluation of the capacity of an institute in dealing with new condition and change. Urmia Lake Restoration National Committee is the case of this study and the result of evaluation show the low capacity of this institute for adoption.

Agriculture, particularly rainfed agriculture, is the first sector being affected by drought; hence, evaluation of the agricultural drought risk is critically important for drought risk management. The objective of this paper is, therefore, to develop a systematic framework and realistic model for accurately quantifying agricultural drought risk with the focus on rainfed wheat. The proposed framework quantifies the agricultural risk based on the hazard and vulnerability levels for different stages of crop growth. To quantify the drought severity, we have employed Standardized Evapotranspiration and Precipitation Index (SEPI) as a drought index. On the other hand, to determine the drought effect on yield performance, Aquacrop model is adopted for different stages of crop growth to evaluate the yield lost due to the drought. For the vulnerability, fuzzy logic techniques are employed. The proposed framework is evaluated for the Sisab Rainfed Research Station in Northern Khorasan, Iran, using the 30-years (1980 to 2011) meteorological data. For this case, vulnerability, as a dimension less quantity, was calculated as 0.6163 and the drought risk level for rainfed wheat in Sisab Station was calculated as 0.3684 ton/acres. The developed framework can be used for systematic risk management to reduce the impact of drought effects as well as calculating agricultural insurance rates for droughty situations.

Integrated management of urban runoff is a key factor in the sustainable development of urban infrastructures. To do this, urban runoff modeling and flood prediction are necessary. In this paper, the Velenjak catchment in the Tehran city is selected as the study area and the SWMM model is used for simulating the rainfall-runoff process. Spatial and temporal variations of the model parameters are usually main sources of uncertainty which may affect the results of the simulation model. The purpose of this paper is to identify the parameters that are more influential and contribute to variability of model response and identify the impact of each one of them on the model outputs. Differnet measures are used to evaluate the model performance in reproducing observed streamflow time series based on variations of the model parameters. In this paper, fifteen parameters of SWMM model are considered and sensitivity analysis is performed using three methods of VARS, Sobol and Morris and the results were compared. Based on the results, six of these parameters are identified as the most effective parameters.

The existence of over 50% of the population in the Middle East boundary Basin has caused competition and debates over the use of conjoint water resources. The eastern part of Iran faced with a severe shortage of water and Mashhad, where most of its water is supplied from the Dusti dam, is dependent on the flow of the Harirood River from Afghanistan. In this research, the effect of the building of the Salma Dam on the entrance flow into the Dusti Dam is studied in different scenarios based on the doctrines of conjoint transboundary waters between the upstream (upper part) and downstream (lower part) countries. Due to the lack of a memorandum of understanding (agreement) on water usage (access) from the Harirood shared river, Iran and Afghanistan right of water are assessed using volume reliability indicators and vulnerability indicators. Simulation results in the case of the building of the Salma Dam, the lack of a memorandum of understanding between the countries of the basin and the establishment of the absolute territorial sovereignty doctrine indicates lack of agricultural needs of 35 percent and the lack of Mashhad drinking water of 40 percent toward the limited territorial integrity doctrine. The basis of the territorial integrity doctrine limited help to the needs of each of the basin countries with respect to the limited water resources of the basin.

The reduction of water resources used in the country, on the one hand, and the increasing demand for agricultural products on the other hand, has increased the need for attention to the management of water resources used in the agricultural sector.This study aimed at codification of optimal production patterning of agricultural crops in Gorgan Mazrae Nemoone Company as one of leading farms in the agriculture sector of Gorgan province was planned and implemented by emphasizing the increased water use efficiency. For this purpose, the statistical data and information of 2015-2016 crop year of the complex was used in the framework of multiple criteria decision making model. The results showed that in the optimum conditions for plant production in this agricultural farm, water use efficiency of 15%, gross margin of 9%, and net energy production by 20% would be increased. So, it can be said that ideals of maximum gross income and net maximum energy generated as the economic goals along with the ideal of increasing water efficiency will be available simultaneously. Finally, according to the results, it was suggested that in order to increase profitability in Mazrae Nemoone farms, while emphasizing increased water use efficiency, wheat, rapeseed, cotton, corn and alfalfa are the main components of the crop cultivation pattern.

In recent years, population growth and economic development all around the world has led to an increase in water demand and it has been a serious challenge to its management, particularly, in Shared River Basins. Game theory is one of the most substantial means of conflict resolution and reaching equilibrium in a system. In the present study, the players' strategies were analyzed through the non-cooperative approach of game theory in the shared basin of Harirrud. At first, a comprehensive linear programming model was developed to calculate the player's net profit. Then the players profit was calculated considering the defined non-cooperative scenario. In the next step, the players’ strategy was carried out using different approaches to analyze each of these methods and their stability are examined. The concept of intensive compensation was also used to examine the possibility of changing the Afghanistan's approach from non-cooperative to cooperative. The results showed that in Iran's non-cooperative approach, Iran's profits fall by nearly 45 percent. Similarly, the intensive compensation approach can change the strategy of Afghanistan from non-cooperative to cooperative. Therefore, according to Pareto's optimality, it is possible to increase 40 percent of Iran's profits without reducing profits in Afghanistan.

In this research, impact of drought on groundwater quality investigated on irrigation usage in Hashtgerd plain aquifer. First, using Thiessen-polygon method and precipitation values of 6 weather stations in Hashtgerd plain, total average monthly rainfall for a period of 30 years (1985-2015) was calculated. Average monthly of groundwater levels for a period of 23 years (1991-2014) were calculated using 8 observation wells data and Thiessen-polygon method. Climatological drought calculated by SPI and groundwater drought calculated by GRI. Based on results, the longest climatological drought with durability of 2 years, severity -2.73 (SPIsum), density -1.365 (SPIavg) and total average monthly rainfall 157.70 mm were in the water years 1998-1999. The most severe groundwater drought was in the water years 2010-2014 (4 years durability) with severity -6.10 (GRIsum), density -1.53 (GRIavg) and groundwater average monthly level 1180.26m. On 12 months period, correlation between groundwater levels and rainfall amounts were significant with time-lag of 11 months. In June of water year 2013-2014 with extreme drought condition, water quality of 16% aquifer area was appropriate to use plants irrigating but 84% was inappropriate while in December, 100% aquifer area was inappropriate as irrigation water quality. Based on LSI, in June and December of all studied years, water quality of 100% Hashtgerd plain aquifer area, it was possible to formation of calcium carbonate sediments.

The objective of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of upgrading the water distribution and delivery systems within the main irrigation canals, on reducing the water pumping from the aquifer. Consequently, the energy consumption reduction and carbon emission reduction is investigated. To achieve this goal, a set of two practical canal automation alternatives, including a decentralized automatic system and centralized control system are designed and tested under the normal and severe (drought) scenarios of the main canal of Qazvin irrigation network. The results for the first scenario showed that the adequacy indicators are increased 13% and 28% respectively with employing the decentralized automated control systems and the centralized one. Accordingly, the reduction in extracting groundwater is declined about 26.6% and inconsequent the energy preservation due to pumping decrease is equal to 7.27% and the greenhouse gas reduction rate is obtained 24.1%. The results of the second scenario, representing the water shortage conditions, indicate that the improvement of the adequacy index by upgrading the operating system to decentralized systems is obtained 70% and for the centralized automated system is obtained 77%. Accordingly, the reduction in abstracting groundwater from the aquifer for the proposed automation methods are 28.3% and 63.4% respectively. Moreover, the reduction of energy consumption is 21.3% and 71.6%, respectively and the greenhouse gas emission reduction was equal to 23.4 and 70.1 %, respectively.

Using ANP methodology, a decision-support model conducted to facilitate the prioritization of artificial nourishing-flood spreading scenarios. As a case study the Khoy plain (with limited groundwater resources) was selected. In the first phase, six scenarios were proposed based on 16 technical criteria and overlaying of GIS shape files. In the second phase, in addition to above-mentioned criteria, other effective parameters were classified into four technical, economic, social, and environmental clusters. After determining the effective connections in the decision-making network based on DEMATEL technique, SuperDecisions software was used. Based on the results of ANP ranking, scenario #3 located in the northwest of the studied area, with a normal weight of 0.175 was selected as the best scenario. The result of the first phase of this study, in which scenarios were prioritized based on AHP method, was the same for the first rank, although the order of other scenarios faced changes. This can be due to the impact of economic, social and environmental factors, as well as the limitation of internal communication in the AHP model. Network analysis has more capability than the AHP method, so complex issues can be addressed, such as the selection of susceptible areas for artificial nourishing-flood spreading.

Failure of earth fill dams is a great challenge in Civil Engineering, in which one of the main causes is uncontrolled seepage through the core and foundation of the dam. Thus seepage analysis is one of the most important complications in design, construction and operation of this type of dams; in this way, inspecting the piezometric heads is the first step in seepage analysis. In the following paper, Sattarkhan earth fill dam piezometric heads have been analyzed via Artificial Intelligence (AI) models and a classic black box model, based on two scenarios. Each scenario has different input combinations for modeling of various conditions. To continue ensemble models have been formed via outputs of the single black box models to improve modeling performance. Three methods of model ensemble were considered, including simple linear averaging model, weighted linear averaging model and non-linear neural ensemble model. Results show that employing model ensemble and in particular non-linear ensemble by neural network, improve the modeling accuracy up to 10%. Moreover, by comparison the both scenarios, it is concluded that in case of a failure of a piezometer, employing scenario 2 can be an effective way.

In this research, daily meteorological data for 15 years (1999-2013) were used in 153 synoptic stations throughout the Iran country to determine the best estimation methods for evapotranspiration of reference plant among pan evaporation methods for different climate conditions. For the total synoptic stations of the country, evapotranspiration was calculated from 12 evaporation pan methods, and the FAO-Penman-Monteith method was used as the standard for evaluating with pan methods. RMSE, MBE, R2 and t tests were used to evaluate the accuracy of the methods. The final results showed that in two arid and semi-arid climates, Mohammad et al , FAO-24 (in dry conditions) and Christensen methods were the most suitable methods and different methods as Schneider, Allen and Prout, Ragvanshi and Waldner were the most inappropriate methods. For the Mediterranean climate condition, Mohammed et al, Konica and Schneider were the most appropriate methods and Pereira's, FAO-24 (in dry conditions), Ragvanshi and Waldner were identified as the most inappropriate methods. In the semi-humid climate, the modified Schneider method, Allen, Prout, and Pryira were the most appropriate methods and Mohammad et al, FAO-24 (in dry condition), Ragvanshi and Waldner and were the most inappropriate methods. In the wet and humid climates conditions, modified Schneider method, (Alan et al 1998) were the best and Pryira, FAO-24 (in dry conditions) and Mohammed et al, Ragvanshi and Waldner methods were the worst methods respectively. Moreover, Finally, comparing the results of lysimetric studies in semi-arid climate confirmed the selected methods.

The growth of the world's population, the increasing water demand all around the world and the reduction of available water due to climate change effects, have all led to increasing water resources stresses. These conditions would intensify the problems of allocation of water resources. Water trading can be considered as a non-structural approach to decrease the problems of water shortage, without need for huge investments in the installation of water supplies. With this approach, the contributors will also be more motivated to use water efficiently. According to the act of Supreme Council of Water about establish water markets in Iran, the legal issues about markets are mostly solved, and the water authorities have been emphasizing on developing an economical approach in water distribution. Despite all the determination about developing the water markets, neglecting other third-party impacts would lead to a failure. Considering the little experiences about water markets in Iran, this review paper has tried to analyze the effective causes on water markets establishment by analyzing the institutions of water markets in Australia, Western USA, Chile, Spain and China, as well as comparing their performances from different aspects.

Due to the increasing need of human societies to groundwater, especially in arid and semi-arid regions such as Iran, Protection and prevention of pollution of these water resources are considered necessary. For this purpose, evaluating the vulnerability of groundwater can play a vital role in protecting and exploiting these resources. In the Barandozhay plain, due to the high agricultural activities, chemical fertilizers, pesticides application, and low depth of water table, there is the probability of aquifer contamination. For this purpose, at first, the potential of contamination of groundwater resources in the plain was studied using DRASTIC, SINTACS and SI models and then, the final map of vulnerable areas was prepared using the combination method. Comparison of the results obtained from the models with nitrate data based on the correlation index (CI) indicated that the combined method of the three models had more correlation than individual models of DRASTIC, SINTACS, and SI. Based on the combined method of the three models, 25, 40 and 35 percent of the Barandozchai plain aquifer area are located in the low, medium and high vulnerability range, respectively. Plain water is suitable for drinking according to the international standards of nitrates.

One of the most important issues affects the generation scheduling problem is consideration of start-up and shut-down costs of generation units. The amount of consumed fuel by a thermal unit from starting up until synchronization with power grid has been considered as the start-up cost. However, for a hydroelectric generating unit, the start-up and shut-down costs have been neglected. Meanwhile, the degradation of equipment due to frequent start-up and shut-down actions for such units are considerable. In this paper, a fair methodology for estimation of these costs is provided and the effects of implementing these costs in the generation scheduling problem are studied by implementing a mixed-integer non-linear programming framework. The decision variables in this framework are determination of operating points of all generation units in the planning horizon. Also, determination of start-up and shut-down actions for such generating units are considered as control variables of the optimization problem. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, a typical hydro-thermal test system is accepted including 9 thermal units and one hydroelectric ones. Different scenarios are evaluated in this paper to assess the effects of start-up and shut-down costs in the short term planning. The simulation results confirmed that consideration of these costs can dramatically reduce the total start and stop actions.

TrTransparency, participation, sustainability, standardization, monitoring and effectiveness are the fundamental principles of good governance in resource management. In the present study, the extraction of indices representing the principles of agricultural water governance in irrigation and drainage networks of Khuzestan was examined using the Delphi method. The weight of each of the indices was then calculated using the special vector. The required data was obtained through designing some specialized questionnaires and also sharing the views from Khuzestan province water and Soil specialists. Drawing upon the results of the study, 16 indicators were identified as the indicators of the water governance principles. The results showed that in the special vector method of water resources' management indicators of transparency principle, self-regulation of agricultural water utilization system of participation principle and ready-made pumps with numerical values of standardization principle of 0.211, 0.155 and 0.100 had the highest weight, irrigation intervals of sustainability principle, efficiency of electrical facilities of standardization principle and rate of irrigation quarrel of monitoring principle with numerical values of 0.017, 0.019 and 0.027 had the lowest weight. On the other hand, the total numerical values of the indicators indicate that the principles of transparency, participation and standardization in the management of water resources for irrigation and drainage networks in Khuzestan have attracted more attention from the water and soil experts of Khuzestan province compared to the principles of sustainability, monitoring and effectiveness.

Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological phenomena and the main parameter for streamflow forecasting. Therefore, determining the amount of precipitation in the future will help to manage water resources and predict the flood. In this regard, some of the most important meteorological centers in the world provided users with Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) on a global scale. The availability of global ensemble forecasting models in the TIGGE database creates new opportunities for flood forecasting. In this research, the effect of post-processing on the most important global numerical ensemble forecasting models such as UKMO, ECMWF, NCEP and CMA in the TIGGE database during the years 2007 to 2014 for the Bashar river Basin investigated. Evaluations were conducted in probabilistic and nonprobabilistic approach. Initially, the four NWP models with quantile mapping methods were bias corrected. Then, by using Bayesian model averaging (BMA), the post-processing was carried out. The results of probabilistic evaluation after post-processing showed that the skill of forecasting models for the Bashar basin increased and uniform distributions were achieved in verification rank histograms. Also, the results of the probabilistic evaluation with the BSS for the combined mode of four QPF Models with BMA method at most stations were close to 0.5 and in the simple combination was close to zero, indicating that Grand ensemble has a higher skill than single models.

Analysis of hydrological parameters of rivers in short-term scales and during a long period of time plays a significant role in the study of production and storage of hydro-electrical energy as well as flood and drought control. In this research, by using chaotic indices, the dynamic status of flow time series and effect of time scale on Zayandehrud River flow behavior in 43 years (1971-2013) was evaluated. The data from Eskandari, Ghale Shahrokh, Pole Zamankhan and Pol Kalleh hydrometric stations in Zayandehrud River were investigated at two daily and 10-day time scales. The possibility of chaos in river flow rate was investigated using correlation dimension. Results showed that on a daily scale, the non-integer value of correlation dimension is 3.34, 3.60, 3.77 and 3.84, respectively, for Eskandari, Ghale Shahrokh, Pole Zmankhan and Pol Kalleh. This indicates the chaotic flow rate of these stations. By increasing the time scale to 10 days, the flow rate in all stations becomes random. Using the Lyapunov exponent test, sensitivity of the system to initial conditions was investigated as an attribute of chaotic systems and the forecast horizon was estimated. The largest Lyapunov exponents obtained at each of the four stations in two daily and 10-day time scales were positive. Hurst exponent was used to investigate the random process of data against its non-randomness. Considering the nonlinear dynamic indices, it seems that correlation dimension is more accurate for chaotic detection in nonlinear systems.

Governing the risks of extreme events is of importance to advance climate change adaptation. In March 2018, some seventeen years after the beginning of Iran’s devastating drought, the Council of Ministers enacted the Act on Water Shortage Adaptation. The purpose of the act is to balance consumption of the limited resources for apportioning the shortage to the users, equitably. What this article does not critique is the act’s approach to moving from confronting-with-drought to living-with-drought practice. What will be questioned is the approach to act implementation. While the paper review the act’s main articles, it will address the overlooked factors that need to be considers in the implementation phase. It is shown that the most important scientific principle in the common-pool resources’ legislation is to understand the social and behavioral processes that govern the resources. For example, what is the resolution mechanisms if people go rivalry and fall into conflicts? This is exactly what is missing in the act.

Increasing impacts of climate change on societies has caused that this issue gets more attentions. Review of the literature shows that the recent attempts are not solely concentrated on “impact assessment”: and “adaptation” is being more considering. This change is not much tangible in our country. For instance, the proceeding of the Fifth Iranian Meteorological Organization on Climate Change reveals that only 2% of the articles were concentrated on the subject of adaptation. This paper attempts to motivate this subject and explain a few related concepts and dimensions, which can be helpful for any research and technical work on climate change adaptation. With regard to this matter, the suggested approaches, strategies, planning, measures, pathways, adaptive capacity, role of stockholders, and mainstreaming are some of the concepts that are presented and explained in this article. At the end section, important points related to evaluation of adaptation plans were assessed and argued.

Today, in many countries of the world, the important part of gross domestic product is the service sector. With the increasing number of service organizations followed by increasing competition, as well as continuous and continuous change in customers' tastes and rising expectations, the biggest challenge faced by these organizations is maintaining and creating a competitive advantage. This research is in terms of its purpose and in terms of descriptive survey is a survey. The statistical population of this research includes all employees and the owner of urban water and sewage company in Kurdistan province. Two questionnaires including, distributed among the clients, as well as a Value Engineering Questionnaire distributed among the employees of ABFA Company, were used to collect the data. The results showed that there is a significant relationship between the engineering value of the services and the quality of services provided in the water and wastewater company of Kurdistan province. Value engineering increases the level of trust, staff accountability, empathy between the employees and the client, as well as the quality increase. The factors are tangible and as a result they increase the quality of the services provided by the company Abfa Kurdistan province. There is a significant relationship between value engineering, value studies and complementary studies and the quality of services, and it can be concluded that value engineering increases the trust and responsiveness of employees and empathy between employees and clients, as well as value engineering to enhance quality. Tangible factors are also used.

Underwater Acoustic Tomography (AT) is a branch of remote sensing technique that transmits the acoustic waves into the water. The AT systems continuously measure the flow velocity and temperature in rivers, seas and the oceans. The AT systems are synchronized with a GPS clock (the clock is currently accurate to a few nanoseconds) connecting to the GPS Satellites. Hence, the systems transmit the acoustic waves at the same time. The systems record the arrival time of acoustic waves. After analyzing the received signals, the flow characteristics would be estimated. In the present study, the system evaluation of an AT system is investigated in the Kousar Channel, Malek-Ashtar University of Technology. Two Fluvial Acoustic Tomography Systems (FATS) were deployed on both sides of the channel. The horizontal distance between two systems was 127m. The FATS simultaneously transmitted sound pulses from the 30 kHz omnidirectional transducers every 60 seconds. The results showed that the underwater sound speed and the water temperature were 1482 m/s and 20.3 ˚C, respectively. The temperature sensor measured the surface temperature in the various points of the channel and confirmed the validity of the FATS measurement. The estimated flow velocity was zero. Due to the water stagnation in the channel, the accuracy of the velocity measurement by FATS was completely confirmed too.