فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 138 (پاییز 1396)

Significant decline in the slope of short-term oil supply and demand curves, along with the meaningful change in the degree of risk aversion in arbitrageurs encouraged us to test the time-varying effects of speculative demand on crude oil price dynamics over the period 1985-2016. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model – with structural shocks identified by Killian and Murphy (2014) approach – we estimated contemporaneous impulse response of real oil prices and crude oil production to speculative demand shock; Furthermore, we derived short-term price elasticity of oil supply in response to speculative demand shock and short-term price elasticity of demand in use. The results demonstrate that the contemporaneous impact of speculative demand shock on oil production has weakened over the examined period of time. Despite moderately stable impact response of real oil price to speculative shocks, the jumps during the periods of high uncertainty and stronger risk aversion are discernable. Moreover, short-term price elasticity of oil supply in response to speculative demand shock, followed a downward trend in a pattern that was always greater than short-term price elasticity of oil supply in response to flow demand shock. The price elasticity of respective oil demand in use was also decreasing and it was smaller than The price elasticity of oil demand in production over the period. Furthermore, the magnitude of speculative oil demand shock volatility plummeted during 1985-1995, before it became stagnant in the succeeding years.

The demand for some products, such as energy, does not instantaneously respond to price changes. In fact, sluggishness of the demand is an important characteristic of energy and oil markets. This study examines the effect of demand sluggishness on the price and output of a fossil fuel industry in which a cartel and a fringe firm supply in the market. The cartel has larger reserves and less costly extraction compared to what the fringe encounters. The strategic interactions between suppliers is characterized as a dynamic Stackelberg model, and the results demonstrate that supply and exploration investment increase with the sluggishness of the demand. Furthermore, it is shown that by the increase of interest rate, firms become myopic and their reserves and long-run supply decrease. On the contrary, reserves and long-run supply increase with the market size, leading to decreasing prices.

Today with obsolescence policy of import substitution industrialization, countries are opening their commercial doors to each other. But one of the problems of developing countries is high rate of educated unemployed people. Iran is facing tow phenomena. The first is High rate of educated unemployed people and the second is the increasing in the participation rate. In this survey with information of 49 countries we found that firstly, openness result in increasing the ratio of the educated workforce to total workforce. Secondly, the service sector has more effective than the industrial sector in the ratio of demand of educated workforce. Third, for the entire of 49 countries listed, the ratio of high-tech exports to total exports has a poorly positive impact on the ratio of educated workforce. And forth, the capital output ratio has a negligible positive impact on the ratio of educated workforce to total  workforce.

Empirical and experimental studies demonstrate that the rates of time preferences are smaller in long run in comparison with that of short run. In other word individuals are present bias; and it is one of the reasons that the saving is less than its optimal level. The aim of this study is to examine if the dearth of sufficient information results in time inconsistency in individual decisions for consuming and saving or not; Thus, individuals are faced with time-inconsistency. In order to test this hypothesis, an experimental method was used. Today, different experimental methods are used to measure these preferences. In this study, individuals` time-preference parameters were measured through two common methods; "Convex Time Budget" assuming a "Constant Relative Risk Aversion" utility function and "Multiple Price List", assuming linear utility function; the results were compared thereafter. The results show that in Convex Time Budget (compared to Multiple Price List), individuals show less present-bias. Also, in both methods, individuals that receive deficient information about the time are turn of payments and faced with more time-inconsistency.

In comparison with other productive sectors of economy, the growth of the industry has become one of the most essential approaches to economic development. This study explores the effects of monetary & fiscal policy shocks on production, employment and wages in the industry sector of Iran’s economy over the period 2004 - 2017. In this research, using time series data and econometrics techniques – particularly structural VAR models (SVAR) – the effects of such shocks are examined in three scenarios, each of them contains one of the aforementioned indices in the industry sector. The results show that among all variables pertaining to monetary & fiscal policy shocks, only positive shocks in government spending increases output in the industry sector during the period, and interest rate shocks has negative effect on output in the sector. On the other hand, in the long run, the major changes in the manufacturing production in the sector are explained by the variable itself and interest rates. The positive shocks of the interest rate have reduced employment in the industry sector, and in the long run, the greatest changes in this variable are explained by government expenditures and interest rates. The results of this study also demonstrate that the positive shock in money supply and interest rates leads to an increase in the wage index in the sector, and in the long run, these two variables explain the majority of wage changes in the industry sector.

The article 18 of the Application of General Policies of Principle 44 of the Iranian Constitution Code, excludes the companies that are under the process of privatization from application of those laws that are applicable to the government-owned companies; the aim was to meet the statutory conditions and frameworks of successful privatization of government-owned shares. On the other hand, the aforementioned article allows the Privatization Board to amend the memorandum and applicable regulations of the government-owned companies over the period of their privatization. with regards to the basics of article 18, and contents and necessities of other applicable laws of the companies and governmental entities as well as general regulations of the private law, the sphere of article 18 is not exhaustive but limited by some boundaries and grounds. The power of the Privatization Board to amend the memorandum and regulations of the companies is subject to some definite limitations so that this power does not exclude the power of the company’s organs and directors. In spite of the indication of article 18, the companies that are to be privatized, in some cases are also subject to some general regulations of government-owned companies as well as applicable rules of private companies.