فهرست مطالب

اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه ای - پیاپی 16 (پاییز و زمستان 1397)
  • پیاپی 16 (پاییز و زمستان 1397)
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1398/02/22
  • تعداد عناوین: 7
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  • مهدی طغیانی *، سمیه مهدوی، آرمان روشندل صفحات 1-24
    با گسترش شهرنشینی در جهان، نیازهای مالی شهرداری ها افزایش پیدا کرد؛ ازاین رو شهرداری ها به شیوه های جدید برای تامین مالی اقدام کرده اند که از آن جمله می توان به منابع مالی بخش سوم (استفاده از مشارکت ها و کمک های خیرین) اشاره کرد. هدف از پژوهش حاضر بررسی تمایل افراد جامعه به منظور پرداخت بخشی از منابع مالی خود در قالب کمک های خیر (بخش سوم) با استفاده از روش ارزش گذاری مشروط است. بدین منظور جامعه آماری شامل خانوارهای مناطق 15 گانه شهر اصفهان و تعداد نمونه با استفاده از روش میشل کارسون 613 خانوار انتخاب شد. این پرسشنامه در اقشار مختلف درآمدی در کلان شهر اصفهان توزیع و تکمیل گردیده است. تحلیل داده ها با استفاده از الگوی لوجیت انجام شد. نتایج نشان داده است که تمایل به پرداخت از هفت متغیر جنسیت، آگاهی از نیازهای شهری، علاقه مندی به شهر، انگیزه الهی، شفافیت در فرآیند، وجود نهاد قابل اعتماد و قیمت های پیشنهادی تاثیر پذیرفته است. به اضافه میزان تمایل به پرداخت برای هر خانواده در شهر اصفهان معادل 64176 تومان در ماه بوده است.
    کلیدواژگان: تامین مالی خدمات شهری، تمایل به پرداخت، بخش سوم اقتصاد، بخش عمومی شهری، الگوی لوجیت
  • علی سعیدی *، محمد عندلیب، جواد کجوری هرج صفحات 25-54
    با توجه به مشکلات اقتصادی موجود در کشور و لزوم تقویت بنیه تولیدی اقتصاد مبتنی بر ظرفیت های درونی اقتصاد ملی متناسب با سیاست های اقتصاد مقاومتی، شناسایی و رفع موانع تولید در بخش های مختلف اقتصادی ضروری به نظر می رسد. در این میان، جامعه عشایری کشور علی رغم پیشینه درخشان در زمینه نقش آفرینی در اقتصاد ملی و نیز ظرفیت های بالفعل و بالقوه متعدد، هم اکنون حضور پررنگی در تولید ملی ندارد. این جامعه که نیرویی مولد و دارای بهره وری بالا در اقتصاد است، با موانعی روبه روست که نه تنها مانع از آزادسازی ظرفیت های آن برای تقویت تولید ملی شده است، بلکه معیشت خود عشایر را نیز دچار مشکل کرده است. این مقاله سعی دارد ضمن شناسایی موانع نقش آفرینی عشایر در حوزه تولید ملی، راهکارهای متناسب با آن ها را مطابق نظریه اقتصاد مقاومتی ارائه دهد. روش پژوهش این مقاله، مبتنی بر مطالعات کتابخانه ای و میدانی و با رویکرد توازن حق مدار است. بر اساس این رویکرد، به ترتیب، موضوع شناسی، نظام مسائل اساسی، نظام حقوقی بنیادی و نظریه مبنای ناظر به پدیده مشخص شده و نهایتا ناظر به حوزه تکالیف هر یک از ارکان مسئول، نظام نامه تکلیفی استخراج شده و نقش هر رکن در آن مشخص خواهد شد. نهایتا موانع نقش آفرینی عشایر ذیل شش مولفه اصلی اقتصاد مقاومتی شامل: درونزایی، برونگرایی، عدالت بنیانی، دانش بنیانی، مردم محوری و رویکرد جهادی، دسته بندی و ارائه شد.
    کلیدواژگان: عشایر، اقتصاد مقاومتی، تولید ملی، توازن حق مدار
  • زین العابدین صادقی *، سید عبدالمجید جلایی، مهلا نیک روش صفحات 57-86
    در این مطالعه تلاش شده است تا تغییرات مصرف انرژی با استفاده از رویکرد تحلیل تجزیه شاخص و روش میانگین شاخص دیوژیا در سال 1390 برای استان‎های ایران بررسی شود[1]. تجزیه مکانی با استفاده از مدل چند منطقه ای برای مصرف انرژی انجام شده است. نتایج نشان می‎دهد در رتبه‎بندی اثر شدت سیستان و بلوچستان با رتبه 1 کمترین توان صرفه جویی و تهران با رتبه 31 بیشترین توان صرفه جویی را دارند. میانگین کشوری اثر شدت358.46 میلیون تن معادل زغال سنگ می‎باشد. استان‎هایی که در زیر مقدار میانگین کشوری اثر شدت قرار گرفته اند توان صرفه جویی بالاتری دارند و مصرف انرژی کمتری دارند. در رتبه بندی اثر ساختار استان کرمان در رتبه 1 و استان خوزستان در رتبه 31 قرار دارد، که به ترتیب دارای کمترین و بیشترین ساختار صنعتی انرژی بری هستند. میانگین کشوری اثر ساختار 77.38- میلیون تن معادل زغال سنگ می‎باشد که نشان دهنده عملکرد بهینه تعداد کمی از ساختار صنعت استان‎هاست. در رتبه بندی اثر فعالیت استان تهران با رتبه 1 و استان خراسان جنوبی با رتبه 31 در ابتدا و انتهای لیست رتبه بندی اثر فعالیت قرار گرفته اند. میانگین کشوری اثر فعالیت 281.07- میلیون تن معادل زغال سنگ است که 11 استان در بالای این مقدار جای گرفته اند. در اثر شدت ترتیب مناطق[2] به صورت منطقه پنج، منطقه دو، منطقه سه، منطقه چهار و منطقه یک می‎باشد. در اثر ساختار ترتیب مناطق به صورت منطقه دو، منطقه پنج، منطقه یک، منطقه چهار و منطقه سه کشور می‎باشد و درنهایت اثر فعالیت به صورت منطقه چهار، منطقه یک، منطقه سه، منطقه پنج و منطقه دو ایران رتبه بندی شده است.
    [1] -ز فراورده‎های نفت سفید، نفت کوره، نفت گاز، بنزین، گاز طبیعی و برق با هم واحد کردن آنها به عنوان یک سبد انرژی استفاده شده است
    [2] -در منطقه بندی استان‎های کشور به همجواری، محل جغرافیایی و اشتراکات توجه‎شده است. این منطقه بندی به شرح زیر است ( وزارت کشور،1393)
    منطقه1: تهران، قزوین، مازندران، سمنان، گلستان، البرز، قم
    منطقه2: آذربایجان شرقی، آذربایجان غربی،اردبیل، زنجان،گیلان، کردستان
    منطقه3: کرمانشاه، ایلام، لرستان، همدان، مرکزی، خوزستان
    منطقه4: اصفهان، فارس، بوشهر، چهارمحال بختیاری، کهگیلویه و بویراحمد، هرمزگان
    منطقه5: خراسان رضوی، خراسان جنوبی، خراسان شمالی، کرمان، یزد، سیستان و بلوچستان
    کلیدواژگان: تحلیل تجزیه شاخص، روش میانگین شاخص دیوژیا، مصرف انرژی، شدت انرژی و شاخص عملکرد انرژی
  • محمد مهدی احمدیان دیوکتی *، حسنعلی آقاجانی، میثم شیرخدایی، امیرمنصور طهرانچیان صفحات 87-123
    نظام ملی نوآوری یک عامل ضروری، موثر و پویا برای توسعه کشورها و از عوامل کلیدی رشد اقتصادی و رقابت پذیری به شمار می رود. نظامی موفق خواهد بود که ایده هایی را که در دانش و فناوری فعلی موجود است، درک کند و آن ها را به نوآوری در سطح موسسات، سازمان ها و کارخانجات تبدیل کند. برای اندازه گیری میزان دانش به کاررفته در تولیدات کشورها، شاخص های مختلفی وجود دارد که یکی از این شاخص ها، شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی[1] است. در این مقاله ضمن اشاره ای مختصر به نظام ملی نوآوری کشورهای منتخب، به مقایسه پیچیدگی اقتصادی این کشورها می پردازیم. نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد کشور ایران در مقایسه با کشورهای منتخب در رابطه با شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی، جایگاه بسیار ضعیفی دارد و نیازمند تقویت نظام ملی نوآوری برای بهبود شرایط است.
    کلیدواژگان: نظام ملی نوآوری، پیچیدگی اقتصادی، اقتصاد دانش بنیان
  • سیاوش جانی * صفحات 124-150
    با عنایت به فواید توسعه صنعت گردشگری ملی و لزوم توسعه آن، در این مطالعه تاثیر و میزان اهمیت هر یک از عوامل موثر بر توسعه صنعت گردشگری و اثرات متقابل آنها بر اساس دیدگاه های مختلف بررسی شد. در این بررسی از داده های 31 استان کشور طی دوره (1393-1390) استفاده گردید. نتایج حاصل از برآورد الگو در قالب داده های تابلویی و بر اساس متغیرهای نرمال شده نشان داد که عوامل طرف عرضه (برخورداری استان ها از مراکز اقامتی و زیرساخت های عمومی) نسبت به عوامل طرف تقاضا (جاذبه های طبیعی، فرهنگی و هنری و امکانات درمانی استان های مقصد)، نقش مهم تری را در تصمیمات نهایی گردشگر دارند. در ادامه با بررسی اثرات متقابل بین عوامل موثر بر گردشگری و روابط بلندمدت بین آنها بر اساس رویکرد هم انباشتگی جوهانسون و مدل های تصحیح خطا، رابطه علی بلندمدت از سوی تعداد مراکز اقامتی و زیرساخت های عمومی به سوی جاذبه های گردشگری و تعداد گردشگر مورد تایید قرار گرفت که نشان می داد در بین عوامل موثر بر گردشگری، ایجاد امکانات عمومی و تشویق بخش خصوصی به تاسیس مراکز اقامتی از سوی مسئولین استانی نقش راهبردی در رونق جاذبه های گردشگری و توسعه صنعت گردشگری استان ها دارد.
    کلیدواژگان: گردشگری بین استانی، عوامل طرف عرضه، زیرساخت ها، مراکز اقامتی، اعتبارات عمرانی
  • خلیل جهانگیری *، علی رضازاده صفحات 151-176
    هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر بررسی اثر تجارت و سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی بر انتشار آلایندگی در کشورهای درحال توسعه طی دوره زمانی 1980 تا 2013 است. نمونه موردمطالعه به چهار گروه شامل کشورهای آمریکای لاتین، جنوب صحرای آفریقا، جنوب شرق آسیا و خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا تفکیک شده و مدل تحقیق برای هر یک از گروه ها با استفاده از رویکرد Panel VAR برآورد شده است. نتایج تحلیل توابع عکس العمل آنی نشان داد که یک شوک مثبت از سوی FDI سبب افزایش در انتشار CO2 در گروه کشورهای آمریکای لاتین و جنوب صحرای آفریقا می شود؛ درحالی که چنین شوکی در کشورهای خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا و همچنین کشورهای جنوب شرق آسیا دارای واکنش منفی است. در مورد اثر شوک تجارت بر انتشار CO2، واکنش ها کمی مبهم بوده هرچند در اغلب موارد افزایش حجم تجارت باعث واکنش های منفی در گروه های مورد بررسی شده است. نتایج تجزیه واریانس خطای پیش بینی نیز نشان داد سهم تجارت در توضیح تغییرات انتشار CO2 در کشورهای جنوب شرق آسیا به مراتب بیشتر از سایر گروه های موردمطالعه بوده است.
    کلیدواژگان: تجارت، سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی، انتشار آلایندگی
  • امیر فرهادیان * صفحات 177-193
    بافت فرسوده یکی از موضوعات مهم در سیاست گذاری عمومی شهری است که علاقه مندان زیادی را در طول دو دهه گذشته در زمینه های نظری و عملی به خود جلب کرده است. توسعه پایدار شهری نیز از مهم ترین چالش های فراروی بشریت در قرن بیست و یکم است که در ارتباط با بافت فرسوده و تبعات آن مورد توجه اندیشمندان حوزه های مختلف مطالعاتی خاصه اقتصاد شهری بوده است. این مقاله با هدف ارائه مدل بومی توسعه پایدار شهری برای منطقه ثامن مشهد به بررسی روابط بین شاخص های شناسایی بافت فرسوده و شاخص های توسعه پایدار شهری با استفاده از مدل یابی معادلات ساختاری پرداخته است؛ چراکه مشهد به عنوان دومین کلان شهر مذهبی دنیا، از نظر فرسودگی و پایداری، و نیز دسترسی به خدمات و منابع با مشکلات عدیده ای روبه رو است و با حضور خیل عظیم جمعیت زائران، اقتصاد شهری را نیز با مسائل اجتماعی و مدیریتی مواجه ساخته است؛ بنابراین این مطالعه با استفاده از روش پیمایشی و ابزار پرسشنامه به گردآوری داده های تحقیق از یک نمونه 201 نفره ساکنین بافت فرسوده اطراف حرم که از بافت خارج شده و ملک خود را واگذار کرده اند، اقدام نموده و از نرم افزارهای آماری SPSS 24 و LISREL 8.8 برای تحلیل استفاده کرده است. نتایج تحلیل نشان از تاثیرات شاخص های شناسایی بافت فرسوده روی شاخص های توسعه پایدار پیرامون حرم مطهر با ضریب 49/0- دارد.
    کلیدواژگان: بافت فرسوده، توسعه پایدار، مدل معادلات ساختاری، مشهد
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  • Mehdi Toghyani *, Somayeh Mahdavi, Arman Roshandel Pages 1-24
    Extended Abstract
     With the development of urbanization, financial needs of municipalities have increased. Nowadays, municipalities have the responsibility of providing public services in cities, but the annual budget allocated to them does not suffice to fulfill some needs. These financial needs have forced municipalities to use new methods to provide resources, including the third sector, that is, using donations and charity contributions. The present study aims at investigating people's willingness to pay a part of their financial resources in the form of donations (the third part) in order to fulfill urban public needs through conditional valuation. For this purpose, 613 questionnaires were distributed among groups of different incomes in the city of Isfahan. The data were analyzed using logit model. The results showed that people's willingness to donate is affected by the following seven variables: gender, awareness of urban needs, concern for the city, divine motives, clarity of the donation process, the existence of a reliable institution, and the offered prices. Each family in Isfahan was found eager to pay 641760 Rials (641760 Tomans) per month to support urban public services; therefore, the number will be 36 billion, 169 million Tomans per month for all the families living in Isfahan.
    Research Methodology
    The present research is of applied and descriptive-causative type. In this study, a questionnaire was designed using the available techniques in the contingent valuation method and then the required information was collected and analyzed. Sampling method was done according to Michael Carson Table. The contingent valuation method (CVM) is a method for expressing on-market goods, which provides the ability for individuals to understand that goods or services by designing an imaginary market for the the desired goods (which is not priced). In this way, the amount of willingness to pay will be asked in the form of a questionnaire. The most important step in the conditional valuation is designing the questionnaire, because if the principles are not met for the design of the questionnaire, the results of the research will not have much conceptual validity. In addition to the proposed amounts, factors affecting the willingness to pay will be examined in this questionnaire. The method of estimating the willingness to pay is based on the logit model. In the logit model, the dependent variables are qualitative, while the independent variables can be a combination of qualitative and quantitative variables. The variables of this model are investigated according to two modes: payment modes (one) and non-payment modes (zero). In which the p is probability of the occurrence of the desired event in the i-th observation and y_i is also the value of a random variable that can be zero or one depending on the situation. By placing = and taking logarithms, the sum of probabilities will be calculated and the estimation of independent coefficients (i.e. the vector β ') will be obtained by maximizing it. And finally the function of the willingness to pay the financial needs is introduced in the following: To measure the willingness to pay the utility function, the benefits of services and goods are analyzed in Rial. In this case, to meet the urban needs, the utility of the person for paying this amount is more than the state of non-payment . By substituting this utility function in the probability function and integrating it, the amount of willingness to pay will be calculated.
    Results and Discussion
    The results of the estimation are presented in the following table: Table 1 Estimated logit model results Logit Model Estimation ResultsSignificance level Z Statistical Standard deviation Estimated coefficient Variable 0.0067 -2.710162 0.293147 -0.79447 GEN 0.0000 4.238563 0.287065 1.216743 AWARE 0.0091 2.607097 0.306768 0.799775 IN 0.0449 2.014169 0.287612 0.579300 MOTI 0.0004 3.535187 0.340699 1.204436 TRANS 0.0143 2.450453 0.277963 0.681137 TR 0.0000 -12.021892 3.82E-06 -4.59E-05 BID 0.0289 2.183995 0.507315 1.107974 Width from origin MCF = 0.508 Prob (LR Statistic) = 0.000 LR Statistic=0.403 At the 95% confidence level, gender is negative and also significant. The reasons for the less willingness of males for participating in payment are their dissatisfaction with the attitude of employees and the municipality officials and the unfairness of many rules of this organization. At the same level of confidence, the awareness variable is positive and significant, because increasing awareness in society increases the participation rate and the sense of responsibility of the citizens. The positive and significant relationship with the interest variable at the 95% confidence level showed that individuals are sensitive to the progress of their city, and every effort is made to increase it. Motivation is another positive and significant variable at the 95% confidence level, as religious backgrounds in Iran are high and the rate of willingness to pay is effective. At the same level of confidence, transparence is positive and significant, because increasing transparency in the municipality reduces the possibility of corruption and leads to the informed decision making. Trust is another positive and meaningful variable at the 95% confidence level, which shows that people's trust in trusted institutions is one of the key factors in attracting resources and capitals. At the 95% confidence level, BID has a negative and significant. The negative sign in this variable show the demand law, in other words, When prices rise, the willingness to pay will decrease. The average value of WTP after estimation was 64176 USD at the 95% confidence level (see Table 2). Table 2 The value of respondents willingness to pay The value of willingness to pay ignificance level Z Statistical Standard deviation Estimated coefficient Variable 0.0000 10.04 2789.96 64176 wtp
    Conclusion
    The findings showed that every household in Isfahan is willing to pay 64176 tomans per month to meet urban needs; this amount will be 36 billion and 169 million tomans for all households in Isfahan. As 34 percent of the statistical population is willing to pay, the total available resources from the popular assistance in Isfahan are about 12 billion and 626 million tomans per month.
    Keywords: Financial urban needs, Willingness to pay, Economics of third sector, Public sector in urban places, Logit model
  • Ali Saeedy *, Mohammad Andalib, Javad Kojoori Haraj Pages 25-54
    Extended Abstract
     Considering the economic problems in the country and the need to strengthen the economic production based on the internal capacities of the national economy in line with the policies of the Moqavematy economy, identifying and removing barriers of production in various sectors of the economy seems necessary. Meanwhile, the nomadic community of the country, despite its brilliant background in national economy and its actual and potential capacity doesn’t play a good role in national production. This society, which is productive in the economy, faces obstacles that have not only prevented the liberation of its capacities to boost national production, but also created some difficulty in the livelihood of nomadics. This paper attempts to identify obstacles in the role of tribes in the national production area and to propose appropriate solutions in accordance with the theory of resistance economics. The research methodology of this paper is based on library and field studies with the right balance approach. Based on this approach, the subject matter, the system of basic issues, the fundamental legal system, and the basic theory of the identified phenomenon, and the field of the duties of each of the responsible bodies, the rule of law are extracted and the role of each pillar will be identified. Finally, barriers of nomadic roles were categorized and presented by six main components of Moqavematy economy, including endogenous, extroversion, equity, knowledge, people, and Jihadi approach.
    Methodology
    In this research, the methodology of "right-based balance" is used to identify the barriers of nomadic roles in national production. The goal of right-based balance is to recognize the rights of the various components of a phenomenon in order to create the fields of balanced growth. Based on this methodology, first by considering different aspects of the object, we will get a relatively comprehensive understanding from it. Then, the structure of basic problems of the phenomenon is extracted. After that, by analyzing the aspects of the subject as well as referring to the laws, the legal structure of the phenomenon is extracted. Next step, the basic theory of the phenomenon is explained. Finally, the role of each relevant responsible will be identified (Zaribaf et al., 2015: 172-173).
    Results
    At the end of the research, we present relatively brief answers to the main question using the findings of the research in accordance with the theory of Moqavematy economy and its six main components: Endogenous: Reviving talent Create new talent Extraversion: Reduce surplus of production Lack of security Lack of economic insight Knowledge base: Vacuuming of native science and technology Disadvantage of production Justice based: Unbalanced growth of the nomadic economy Unfulfilled rights of nomadic People based: Participating in production Consumption at a sufficient level Jihad approach: Lack of Jihadi spirits in nomadic people Lack of Jihadi management in government agencies responsible for nomadic affairs
    Conclusion
    Generally, due to the existing barriers and legal structure of nomadic production, the following tasks can be identified for each of the components involved in nomadic role in national production: Nomadics’ role: Identification of internal capacities of nomadics and Trying to be self-sufficient. NGO of Nomadic’s role: Organizing nomadics for solving problems and pursuing rights. Government: Servicing in order to remove deprivation and guide nomadics to self-sufficiency as well as preparing context for nomadics to play role in solving the Country’s problems. Supreme Council Of nomadics and Provincial council: Coordinating between central and local agencies to solve nomadic's problems. Parliament: Approving and monitoring the laws and budgets in order to remove deprivation and guide nomadics to self-sufficiency as well as preparing context for nomadics to play role in solving the Country’s problems. Judiciary: Investigating and prosecuting the perpetrators of the nomadics rights. Basij: Protecting from nomadic’s revolutionary identities and Enabling them to protect the Islamic Revolution. Police:Securing nomadic’s and contributing them in securing the country.
    Keywords: Nomadic, Moqavematy economy, national production, right-based balance
  • Zeinolabedin Sadeghi *, S.A Jalaee, Mahla Nikravsh Pages 57-86
    Introduction
    Decomposition analysis has been extensively used to study the factors of changes of an aggregate indicator over time. Two popular decomposition techniques include index decomposition analysis (IDA) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA). These popular techniques in energy and emission have been developed independently.
    For almost two decades, the most widely used index decomposition analysis (IDA) approaches in energy and energy-related gas emission studies have been formulated using Laspeyres and Divisia index. Index decomposition analysis is now a popular analytical tool for policymaking in the national energy and environmental issues (Ang & Zhang, 2000).
    Methodology
    The basic IDA identity in energy consumption studies is used to illustrate spatial decomposition analysis for two regions. Assuming that energy consumption of a region is divided into m sectors. Considering that E is the total energy consumption and is the energy consumption in sector i, A is the overall activity level; Ai is the activity level of sector i; Si is the activity share of sector i (=Ai/A); I is the aggregate energy intensity (=E/A), and Ii is the energy intensity of sector i: E = =
    When the aggregate energy consumption of the two regions (Region 1 & Region 2) is compared, we may choose the one with a lower consumption (assuming it to be Region 2) as the base region in the comparison. In spatial decomposition analysis, the difference in the aggregate energy consumption between the two regions, denoted as , is decomposed to give the following:where the terms on the right give the effects associated with differences between the two regions at the overall activity level, the activity mix and the sectoral energy intensity, respectively. In IDA terminology, they are referred to as the activity effect, activity structure effect and energy intensity effect respectively.
    Policy makers may wish to know why there are differences among countries, or provinces or states within a country. They also wish to know the implications of these differences and the best course of action to take.
    For these purposes, the use of the bilateral– regional (B–R) model or radial–regional (R–R) model provides useful but incomplete information. A more elaborate spatial decomposition analysis model is needed, which we shall introduce in this section.
    To reduce the number of decomposition factors and at the same time to avoid the arbitrariness of choosing a benchmark reference in a multi-region spatial decomposition analysis, one solution is to compare each of the target regions with a reference entity given by the mean of the entire group. In energy decomposition analysis, this reference entity has the energy consumption for each sector, and it also has the activity level given by the arithmetic mean of the corresponding values for all the regions in the comparison group. The activity structure and energy intensity for the entity are then calculated from these group mean values (Ang, Xu, & Su, 2015).
    We call this multi-regional (M-R) spatial decomposition analysis model, in which the relationships between any of the two regions are obtained indirectly through the results of two relevant direct decomposition analyses. Hence, for a comparison group consisting of n regions, n direct decomposition cases are conducted between each member and the group mean, and sets of indirect results that can be derived to allow a comparison between any of the two regions. The indirect results for Region 1 and Region 2 are estimated in the following formula:where Rμ refers to the benchmark reference, which is the group mean.
    Results and Conclusion
    In this study, spatial analysis using multi-regional (M-R) model for energy consumption in 2012 was carried out in 31 provinces of Iran. According to the intensity effect based on the obtained ranking, the results of the study showed that Sistan and Baluchestan had the lowest power for saving with a rating of 1, while Tehran had the most power for saving with the rating of 31. The mean national intensity effect was 358,46 million tons of coal equivalent. The provinces which are below the national mean intensity effects had higher savings and lower energy consumption. Kerman Province was first province due to the structure effect of Kerman Province, whereas Khuzestan Province was ranked as the 31st province. They respectively had the minimum and maximum intensity of the industrial structure. The national mean of industrial structure was -77.38 Million tons of coal equivalent which represent the optimal performance of a small number of industry structure governorates. The national mean of activity effect is equivalent to the -282.07 million tons of coal, where the 11 provinces are at the top of this range. The ranking of different regions of country are respectively region 5, region 2, region 3, region 4, and region 1 for intensity effect; region 2, region 5, region 1, region 4, and region 3 for structural effect, and finally region 4, region 1, region 3, region 5 and region 2 for activity effect.
    Keywords: Index decomposition analysis, Logarithmic mean Divisia index, Energy consumption, Intensity of energy, Energy performance index
  • Mohammad Mahdi Ahmadian Divkoti *, HasanAli Aghajani, Meysam Shirkhodaei, Amir Mansour Tehranchian Pages 87-123
    Introduction
    As stated by theoreticians, no factor can replace knowledge in the present-day economy; so that other production factors (such as labor and capital), which have been among the main contributing factors of development for decades, are also affected by such phenomenon. Accordingly, in the age of knowledge-based economics, many countries are seeking to develop their wealth creation through knowledge; thus, they seek to organize a mechanism in which knowledge is created based on the needs of society, which helps them pass through the path to maturity and evolution, and ultimately leads them to the wealth creation (Hasani, Rafiei & Bakhshiani, 2016).To measure the level of knowledge used in a country’s products, there are several indicators one of which is the economic complexity index (Pazham & Salimifar, 2016) proposed by Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009); to measure the complexity of the countries’ economy (Hidalgo & Hausmann, 2009). The economic complexity approach can be used as a benchmark for assessing the effectiveness of the countries’ national innovation systems. Many models have been introduced to assess and measure the success of innovation systems, but a more complex and more realistic approach to this measure can be demonstrated in the international arena. Thus, in this article; we first provided a very brief reference to the national innovation systems of the selected countries (including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and Iran), then by introducing how to calculate economic complexity, opportunity gain and distance, we compared the comparative position of these countries while encountering economic complexity.
    Theoretical Framework
    Complex economies are economies bringing together a large amount of related knowledge in the form of large networks of people and produce a diverse range of knowledge-based products. In contrast, simple economies have a poor sponsorship and support of productive knowledge and produce less and simpler goods that require a smaller network of interactions (Hidalgo & Hausmann, 2009). For this reason, the design of the national innovation system is very important in order to provide an appropriate climate in which economic agents can innovate and create technology (Weng et al., 2012). Countries that have managed to bring together components in a product have accelerated the growth of innovation and, the economic growth, consequently whereas countries with a disparate national innovation system have failed to achieve such growth (Nasiriaghdam, Dehghan Tarzjani, Rezaei & Beik Mohamadlo, 2011). As a result, the national innovation system is a necessary, effective, and dynamic factor for the development of countries (Iqbal, Khan, Bashir, & Senin, 2015).
    Methodology
    To conduct the study, the data collection was done in two stages. In the first stage, using the documentary method and the search of relevant internal and external sources, books, scientific and research publications, theoretical foundations related to the innovation system of the selected countries were studied. In the next step, since one of the indicators of the success of innovation systems is the use of knowledge and innovation in the knowledge-based products production and export, the economic complexity index is used to compare the efficiency of these systems in the global arena. If we accept that the construction of a commodity requires a specific type and composition of applied knowledge, it is obvious that a country can produce a product which has access to this applied knowledge. From this simple principle, two useful tips for constructing the economic complexity index can be derived:1- Countries with more applied knowledge will be able to produce a more diverse range of goods. In other words, the amount of applied knowledge accumulated in a country is expressed on the basis of the "diversity" of its products, or the number of distinctive goods it produces.
    2- The production of goods that require a large amount of knowledge is possible only in a limited number of countries, in fact, the countries that have all the necessary applied knowledge. (Cheshomi & Malekalsadati, 2014).
    In addition to calculating the economic complexity of countries, this approach can be used to calculate opportunities for countries to diversify exports, and the distance or ability to enter a specific product; these data and information about different countries in terms of economic complexity are accessible to everyone at Harvard Business Complex Atlas Site (visit http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu). Data on the economic complexity of selected countries in this research have also been extracted from this site.
    Findings
    Examining some of the indicators of the national system of innovation model in selected countries, such as the cooperation of industrial enterprises, the interaction of industry and university as well as; technology distribution and staff turnover, shows that selected countries other than Iran have taken effective measures to strengthen their national innovation system. According to the research findings, if we look at the situation of the "product space" of the selected countries over the past decades, we will notice a very delicate point, which is a significant shift taken place in the export situation of these countries over time; and have changed from export of products with low complexity (agricultural products, minerals, raw materials, etc.) towards highly complex products (single, industrial products); however, the product space for Iran was not so. In addition, by observing the export status of these selected countries from 2000 to 2016, it was observed that; over the years; the largest share of exports has been made in Japan, Korea, Singapore and Malaysia for the products belonging to the group of machinery, electronics and chemicals which are the most complicated. However for Iran; the opposite is true, and crude oil has the largest share in Iran's export, which, has a very low value in terms of complexity. On the other hand, Iran, has a higher possibility than the other countries in terms of obtaining the opportunity, while these opportunities are far away from the country’ reach, that is, the country's capabilities to achieve these opportunities must be strengthened. Concerning the points of interest for the selected countries, it is true that they have a lower rating in terms of opportunity, but these opportunities are closer to them. The next point is that for the selected countries, the high-tech products are closer in terms of distance; and because of the lack of adequate natural resources; or the implementation of rigorous policies in exploiting these resources, the raw materials, mineral resources and agriculture are far away. For Iran, the situation is a little different; raw materials, minerals, and crude oil, are closer for exploitation, and high-tech products are far from Iran in terms of distance although being less attractive for the benefit of the opportunity.
    Conclusion
    Economic complexity requires the policy makers to change attitudes in various fields, and the creation of synergy and coordination among all policies, so as to distance themselves from simple and linear causal relationships. They should also emphasize the promotion of the technological and innovative capabilities needed to sustain the country's sustainable development. This implies the need for a duplicate effort in the transition from a resource-based economy to a knowledge-based economy. It also requires the integration of the innovation policy into the package of the country's development policy, which should be pursued seriously by the central institutions in the public and private sectors. Changing the key variables of the economy is not achieved simply by changing price or encouraging the tax or establishing a law or establishing an organization or institution. It also requires special attention to the national system of innovation and the creation of coordination and synergy among all actors and institutions involved in this system. Of course, to accelerate the realization of economic complexity, the policies and experiences of the leading countries in the field of the national system of dynamic innovation can be used while taking into account the position, capacity, and potential of the country.
    Keywords: National system of innovation, economic complexity, knowledge-based economy
  • Siavash Jani * Pages 124-150
    Introduction
    Considering the benefits of national tourism industry development, many studies identified effective factors on tourism attraction. But most of these studies focus on foreign tourists and believe income and exchange rate are effective in tourist attraction. While due to Michel Porter’s theory (1990), competitive advantage, to develop tourism industry first domestic tourism should be in consider. Porter believes the industries could succeed the global competition that, the firms of the industry promote their performance and ability by creating competition within the country. So, different region’s competition within the country is important in tourism industry development.These items emphasize to consider the effective factors on different provinces' competitiveness about tourist attraction. So the study answers these questions: Which factors are effective on provinces competitiveness in tourist attraction and national tourism industry development? Which are the priorities of national tourism development due to the interactional effect between factors and long run casual relations?
    Theoretical framework
    Based on theoretical framework, there are two approaches in analyzing effective factors on tourism attraction. First approach is demand – driven ,which is due to the assumption that “ the destination provocates people satisfactory emotions and believes and meet their need”( Hu & Ritchie(1993)).On the other hand the supply – driven approach in tourism industry focuses on services which are prepared and designed for the tourists of the destination.
    The above approaches in different studies has been done in various forms. Based on the literature the effective factors on the number of the tourists divides in to four groups, the first group is related to the supply side factors including infrastructures like nation’s accommodation, transportation infrastructure, health and government credits. The Second group is related to educational and medical potentials and cultural and natural attractions. The third group includes tourism region features like population and Geographical distance, the fourth group is related to the tourist’s individual characteristics like income.
    Methodology
    According to the theoretical framework and previous studies, the analyzing model presented below:(1)
    Here t shows the time, i is the province also TU, HO, TWA, BE, HS, CR, NCU, EDU, DS, NI, PU and DI are respectively number of the tourists. The total number of nation’s accommodation ,main roads length including highways and freeways in terms of Kilometer, health index in terms of the number of beds of province’s medical centers, health index in terms of specialist , government’s province’s development credits in terms of billion riyals, the number of cultural centers , the number of university students. Dummy variable is for Northern provinces and Tehran, province’s per capita income (except destination province), population and Geographical distance. To evaluate the above model, panel data approach with the information of 31 provinces of Iran during (2011-2014) is used.
    After model estimation and determining the share of each factor, factors long run relation and causality direction of each effective factor on tourism attraction is analyzed by using Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and error correction models (1990) .So each factor's position among the other factors is specified .As there are many factors which are used in the base model to analyze public infrastructures and provinces attractions. So in analyzing long run relations and causality direction among factors the principle component approach is used to extract a factor for the infrastructures and another factor for attractions.
    Results & Discussion
    The results in the form of panel data and due to normalized factors show that supply side factors (the number of Nation's Accommodations and public infrastructures) comparing to demand side factors (artistic, cultural and natural attractions and target province’s health facilities) play an important role on tourists final decision. Then by analyzing interactions between tourism effective factors and long term relationships due to Johansson’s cointegration approach and error correction models , long term casual relationship is approved from the number of nation’s accommodation and public infrastructures toward tourism attractions and the number of tourists. These results show that among the tourism effective factors, generating public facilities and encouraging privet sector to establish accommodation by provincial authorities has a strategic role in promoting tourism attraction and developing province’s tourism industry.
    Conclusions & Suggestions
    The results of the study emphasizes on tourism infrastructures and the government’s key role. In addition the nation's accommodation construction, which usually built by private sector, cause tourist attraction and has a main role in tourism industry development which increases by government’s policies and encouragements.
    Due to the importance of competition among provinces in national tourism development, the study results emphasize the necessity to pay attention to provinces' balanced allocation of public facilities for competition creation among provinces to attract tourist. In other words, if distribution inequality of facilities and public infrastructures among provinces decreases, deprived provinces capacity of tourist attraction will increase and this will reinforce the competition of tourist attraction among provinces.
    Deprived provinces enjoyment of public facilities lead to recognition of tourism attractions and these provinces' competition will upgrade which causes tourism attraction reinforcement.
    Keywords: Province's tourism, supply side factors, infrastructures, Nation's Accommodations, Development Credits
  • Khalil Jahangiri *, Ali Rezazadeh Pages 151-176
    Extended Abstract
    The impact of trade openness and foreign direct investment (FDI) on environment is a subject of intense debate among economists and environmentalists. Trade openness and FDI have been the important factors in economic growth in developing countries in recent years. In fact, despite the positive impact of these factors on economic growth in these countries, their environmental effects are considered as the main issue. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to assess how trade openness and FDI affects the environmental pollution in developing countries during the period 1980-2013.
    Theoretical Framework
    Trade theory suggests that the impact of a marginal change in trade on the emission level in a given economy can be decomposed into three major channels: scale effect, composition effect, and technique effect (Grossman & Kruger, 1993). The net change in aggregate emissions in this particular economy are determined through the interaction of these effects.
    The scale effect refers to an increase in emissions due to the increasing level of economic activity, holding all other factors constant. In a simple case without any other structural change in the economy, trade openness would increase the level of production, transportation, and also the consumption of goods. This would, in turn, drive up the level of pollution through greater emissions during these processes. Therefore, the sign of the scale effect is generally positive when isolated, because higher trade level is usually associated with higher levels of economic activity. Analogously, a reduction in trade between countries due to a hike in trade barriers would cause a contraction in economic activities and decrease the level of emission through the scale effect (Hubler & Keller, 2010).
    The composition effect, on the other hand, refers to a change in the emission level because of a change in the relative shares of different goods in the aggregate production of a country. Other things being equal, a marginal change in trade barriers would alter the relative prices of the goods produced in an economy. This would, in turn, change the quantities of production in equilibrium. When goods have different degrees of carbon intensity, a change in the composition of production would affect the overall emission level (Stern, 2004). The sign of the composition effect is determined by the comparative advantage of the economy. A reduction in trade barriers would increase the domestic price of the exported goods; therefore, most of the national resources would be devoted to the production of the exported goods.
    Finally, the technique effect refers to the impact of an increase in trade on the emission level due to a change in production methods. Other things being equal, this effect represents the variation in the derived demand for the polluting input per unit of the final goods or services. There are, in fact, two major channels through which trade reduces the emission per unit of output. First, trade facilitates technology transfer; therefore, cleaner technologies become available for adoption by domestic producers. Developing countries might benefit significantly from the increasing access to modern technology embodied in imports. Second, trade can reduce the emission per unit of output through the consumer's preferences and political processes. As environmental quality is considered to be a normal item, the demand for it increases when trade raises income. If politicians are responsive to public demand, then necessary fiscal and regulatory measures would be implemented to induce the producers to reduce the GHG intensity per unit of output in the production process (Antweiler et al., 2001).
    Methodology
    The goal of this study is to examine the relationship between CO2 emissions, FDI and trade openness in the 56 developing countries which are studied in four distinct groups. The study groups include Latin American countries (19 countries), sub-Saharan Africa (14 countries), Middle Eastern and North African countries (14 countries), and South-East Asia (9 countries). A balanced panel data from 1980 to 2013 is used in this study. The data for all variables are collected from the World Development Indicators (WDI). The model of this study is specified as follows (Al-mulali & Tang, 2013):Where CO2it is the natural log of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, GDPgit is the gross domestic production growth, Tradeit is the trade openness (exports plus imports as a share of GDP), FDIit is the foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP) and Energyit is the log of the per capita energy consumption. The specified model is also estimated using Panel Vector Auto-Regression (Panel VAR) method.
    Results and Discussion
    The results of the impulse response functions show that a positive shock of FDI increases the CO2 emissions in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, while such a shock in the MENA and South East Asian countries have a negative response.
    The effect of trade shocks on CO2 emissions has been debated although in most cases the increase in volume of trade causes negative responses in the studied groups. The analysis of variance decomposition shows that the share of trade in explaining changes in CO2 emissions in South-East Asia countries has been far more than other groups.
    Conclusions and Suggestions
    To provide suggestions for further research, it should be noted that the findings of the present study are just generally able to look at how FDI and trade affect (without considering the details of the trade and the FDI flow) the CO2 emission in different groups of developing countries. Hence, more detailed data and models can be used to complete and strengthen the research. For example, the trade volume data and the FDI flow between the major trading partners of a given country (e.g., Iran) and the gravity model can be used to study how FDI and bilateral trade affect the pollution emission. Also, the use of data on the composition and volume of trade in different product groups between countries helps to distinguish between the scale, combination and technique effects. In fact, this approach helps to identify the business-friendly policies to improve the production structure of a country in terms of emission reduction.
    Keywords: Trade, FDI, Environmental pollution index, Panel VAR Models
  • Amir Farhadian * Pages 177-193
    Worn-out tissue is one of the important issues in public policy making, which has brought many consistent pursuits and interests during the past two decades in theoretical and practical fields (Samiei & Sayafzadeh, 2016). The urban ecological environment provides people with clean water resources and a comfortable living environment, both of which are the foundation of urban economic, social, and cultural development (Li et al., 2018). Hence, the presence of environmental contaminants, waste emissions, and noise pollution in these areas are threatening the comfort of the residents. This type of tissue, which can be found widely in different areas of around holy shrine in city of Mashhad, can cause a lot of damage and financial losses at the time of accidents. In addition, residence and work efficiency in this type of urban tissue have never had the desired performance. Thus, the importance and necessity of developing the economy of Mashhad through improvement and revitalization of the worn-out urban tissues surrounding the Holy Shrine of Imam Reza are such that the acceleration of the operational process of this project is one of the main concerns of the local and national authorities as well as all the related executive organizations who are in agreement on this issue. The national and super-national consequences of running this huge project along with the necessity of offering the desired services to the pilgrims of Imam Reza and the residents of the region have made the role of all the related organs and their direct presence in performing the predicted plans inevitable (Farhadian, 2015). Addressing this issue as a deep renovation reduces energy consumption level compared to pre-renovation levels both in the short term and the long term, typically by more than 60%, because the European concept of deep renovation has been adopted by the Global Building Performance Network (Femenías et al., 2018).
    Sustainable urban development is one of the most important challenges that humanity faces in the 21st century, which has called the attention of thinkers in various fields of study, especially the urban economy in relation to the worn-out tissues and its consequences. This article aims at presenting a local model of sustainable urban development for the Samen area of ​​Mashhad to study the relationship between the indices of identifying the worn-out texture and sustainable urban development indices using structural equation modeling. Mashhad as the second religious macro-city in the world has faced many problems in terms of its worn-out and sustainable tissues, as well as the access to services and resources, and with the huge presence of the population of pilgrims, the urban economy has faced social and management problems. Therefore, this study was carried out using a survey method and a questionnaire to collect the data from a sample of 201 people who have been stripped of the tissue around the shrine that have left the tissue and their property. The statistical software SPSS 24 and LISREL 8.8 was used for analysis. The results of sustainability evaluation of physical-technical, environmental, economic, and social indices in the worn-out tissue of Mashhad are explained as follow: In Group A, post physical-technical status of the tissue was positive as compared with the former condition (average of 13 in proportion to 18), the current environmental status was relatively positive as compared with the former status in the worn-out tissue (average of 10 to 13), the current economic status of household based on currency value of 2012 comparing with past was negative regarding the minimum and maximum amount of revenue and expense status which confirms the issue; social sustainability status of current SD was relatively negative comparing with the past (average of 84 to 77), and final status of sustainability indices before abandoning the tissue with 107 on average in proportion to after that with an average of 109 was relatively positive.
    In Group B, the average of physical-technical status was 15. That is, the place of residence of samples was physically neither proper nor improper, the environmental status with the mean of 10 was average as well, and the household economic status in comparison with the modified monthly income based on currency value of 2011 indicated the minimum saving condition for the people of this group. By comparing the average income of respondents (70 people who are about to assign) as 1420 thousand Toman and 1304 thousand Toman for average expenses, the issue could be further explored. The status of social sustainability indices based on the evaluated result of average (75) was assessed as the limits of minimum and maximum responses at an average level which indicate that social indices of those who are about to assign are neither proper nor improper. In sum, urban sustainability indices for this group of people with the average of 100 were average.
    In Group C, the physical-technical status with the average of 16 means the environmental status with an average of 15 was in average condition as well. The economic status of people in comparison with the modified monthly income based on the currency value of 2010 indicated minimum saving condition for the people of this group. Comparison of the claimed 1030 thousand Toman average income by respondents (170 owners) and the average expense 989 thousand Toman approved the issue. The status of social development indices based on the evaluated result of average (63) and concerning the limits of minimum and maximum answers have been assessed on a weak level which is an indicator of the status in which social indices are improper for the residents. Finally, urban sustainability indices by the average of 97 were average for the people of this group.
    Keywords: Worn-out tissue, Sustainable development, Structural equation modeling, Mashhad