فصلنامه جغرافیا و پایداری محیط
پیاپی 30 (بهار 1398)

The urban development strategy approach as a strategic plan in responding to management inefficiency and reducing the quality of life of cities since 1999 has been raised with the goal of reducing poverty, sustainable development and promoting participatory and good urban governance. In the meantime, one of the CDS axes has been neighborhood-based approach and attention to urban neighborhoods. Therefore, the present research intends to prioritize the neighborhood (Darb Shazdeh, Bazaar Morgh Market, Sang siyah and Sare Duzak) in eight district based on four principles of urban development strategy (good urban governance, bankiness, viability and competitiveness). Required data were collected through library studies and completed questionnaires. The statistical population of this study is citizens of four neighborhoods of the neighborhoods of the eight district of Shiraz (N = 24871), which was selected using Cochran formula. 318 people were selected and a proportional to each neighborhood population was distributed randomly in the neighborhood. In order to analyze the data, SPSS software and one-sample T-test were used and the Ralspi model was used for leveling the neighborhoods. The results of a single-sample T test indicate that the overall mean of urban development strategy indicators at the level of these neighborhoods is at an unsatisfactory level. The findings of this model indicate that from the total area of study, the neighborhoods of Sare Duzak and Darbe Shazdeh, respectively, with the first and second rank, with a final score of 0.5109 and 0.4634, to some extent, and Bazzar Morgh locations and Sang siyah are at a very depreciated level with a final score of 0/1638 and 0/0052 respectively. In 2016, almost 50% the 7.3 billion people in the world resided in cities. It is estimated that about 67% of world's population will live in cities by 2050. Such a situation has created a huge demand for the development of basic infrastructures and provided the basis for a serious study of urban planners and planners, as well as for the politicians.  In addition to these, the complexity of urban systems and the inefficiencies of traditional methods that provide case solutions and inability of these methods to meet the existing multidimensional needs and problems has caused many developing cities, Without a proper and comprehensive program, it is in a state of fragility and faced an excessive spread of poverty and an uncertain future. Hence, in response to the uncertain future of the future, management inefficiency and quality of life in cities, a new urban planning approach called the Urban Development Strategy (CDS) has been created by the Alliance of Cities since 1999, that of its goals, increasing competitiveness, efficiency, improving the quality of housing, reducing poverty and improving urban management can be counted. The present study is based on the nature of practical and in terms of method, descriptive-analytical. Data and information collection was done by using both documentary and field method (questionnaire). The statistical population of this study is citizens of four neighborhoods of the neighborhoods of the eight district of Shiraz (N=24871). Using Cochran's formula, 318 people were selected and the research questionnaire proportional to the population of each neighborhood was distributed and completed in a simple random method. In order to analyze the collected data, SPSS software and T-test one-way test were used.  Finally, the RALSPI model has been used to evaluate the total urban development strategy indices and the ranking of neighborhoods surveyed. It should be noted that for comparison of each criterion and indicators of the urban development strategy in this model, after obtaining the opinion of 20 relevant experts (Using personal estimate) we used an ANP model to weigh each criterion. The averages of the urban development strategy indices in the studied neighborhoods indicate that in the good urban governance index, the average of most components is less than the initial set value of the test, that is, the numerical value is 3. So that apart from the "concordance orientation" component, the mean value of other good urban governance factors is less than the average of the test. Therefore, the average of the sample can be generalized to the total inhabitants of the studied neighborhoods. In the banking index, the numerical mean of "security infrastructure" and "communication infrastructure" is more than the set value of the test, that is, the number 3. The components of "educational infrastructure" and "security infrastructure" with the mean values of 2.20 and 3.45, respectively, were the lowest and most average. Therefore, the total average banking level at the neighborhood is 2.77. In the livability index, the average of all components of life is lower than the assumed mean of the test. Meanwhile, the components of "urban challenge" and "infrastructure" with average value of 2.72 and 2.25 have the highest and lowest average values and Also, the average life livability is equal to 2.44, which indicates that the neighborhoods of the Shiraz area of eight are unfavorable. Finally, in the Competitiveness Index, the average for all factors related to the "Competitiveness" factor is less than the average value of the test. So that the urban infrastructure, which is considered as one of the main factors of the growth and development of the city and neighborhoods and the main factor in the competitiveness issue, is with average (2.16) lower the limit of desirability compared to other indicators. Also, the total average competitiveness is 2.29, which is lower than the average. The present study aims to evaluate neighborhoods (Bazar-Morgh, Darbe Shazdeh, Sare duzak, Sang siyah) in the 8th district of Shiraz based on four principles of urban development strategy and itsindicators. The results of the research indicate that the general mean of urban development strategy indices in the neighborhoods is lower than the average. So, in the Good Governorate Index, the Darbe Shazdeh Neighborhood with an average of 2.73 in the best situation and the Sang Siyah area with an average of 0.00 is in the worst position. In the bankability indexes of the Darbe Shazdeh and Sare duzak, due to the existence of bankability branches and commercial position of these neighborhoods, the area is located at a better level and the Sang Siyah area with the average of 2.37 is located in the lowest category. In the livability index, the Sare duzak and Sang siyah were arranged at an average of 2.93 and 1.63 in the best and worst conditions. Finally, in the competitiveness index of the Sare Duzak neighborhood with an average of 2.62 in the best situation and the Sang siyah with an average of 2.00 is in a bad position. In the end, in order to rank the neighborhoods of the eight district of Shiraz in terms of urban development strategy indicators, the RALSPI model was used because of decreasing the amount of indices' success. The findings of this model indicate that from the total area of study, the neighborhoods of Sare Duzak and Darbe Shazdeh, respectively, with the first and second rank, with a final score of 0.5109 and 0.4634 at a partly favorable level and the neighborhoods Bazar Morgh and Sang siyah with a final score of 1,6383 and 0.0052 at the most deprived level.

The sensitive environment of Playa, as one of the largest mineral resources, has a special place in economic activities. Chemical compounds available in Playa are essential for soil which are used to fertilize agricultural soil. SAHL ABAD playa in the south Khorasan province, have special geomorphologic landscape by the presence of ephemeral saline lakes, wetlands, salt crusts, surface accumulations of salt and zones of pattern ground and it is always inhabited by mineral and agricultural exploitation. The issue of incorrect exploitation and excessive mineral resources of the Sahl Abad playa with the occurrence of abnormal changes in the playa geomorphology perspective can exacerbate the risks of wind erosion by increasing the sediment load. In this study, percent changes in some of the chemical compounds such as sodium chloride, sodium and gypsum in the playa were calculated with the aim of satellite data for two periods. Besides, using texture and pattern analysis of the PCA1, percent changes in the surface pattern grounds of the playa was calculated. Finally, we study the relationship between these two groups of changes in the playa surface. It was found that soil-surface salt accumulations are dominated by sodium chloride and gypsum and distribution of chemical soluble is not uniform across the playa landscape resulting in the variety form of pattern ground. Moreover, chemical compounds, are correlated with each other. There is positive relationship between percentage changes in patterned grounds and the percentage of changes in the chemical compounds at a significant level. The greatest effect on the chemical compounds studied on the evolution of pattern grounds of playa surfaces is related to changes in the concentration of sodium chemical composition with a correlation of about 0.35. Playa is a closed drainage system with a shallow water mass, which is strongly influenced by evaporation due to the drought conditions in its environment. The sensitive environment of Playa, as one of the largest mineral resources, has a special place in economic activities. Chemical compounds available in Playa are also essential for soil and are used to fertilize agricultural soil. SAHL ABAD playa in the south Khorasan province, have special geomorphologic landscape by the presence of ephemeral saline lakes, wetlands, salt crusts, surface accumulations of salt and zones of pattern ground and it is always inhabited by mineral and agricultural exploitation. The issue of incorrect exploitation and excessive mineral resources of the Sahl Abad playa with the occurrence of abnormal changes in the playa geomorphology perspective can exacerbate the risks of wind erosion by increasing the sediment load. In this study, changes in the concentration of chemical compounds of playa surface as independent variables and morphological changes of pattern grounds are considered as dependent variables. Percent changes in the chemical compounds such as sodium chloride, sodium and gypsum in the playa were calculated with the aim of satellite data for two periods. Besides, using texture and pattern analysis of the PCA1, percent changes in the surface pattern grounds of the playa were calculated. Finally, we study the relationship between these two groups of changes in the playa surface. It was found that soil-surface salt accumulations are dominated by sodium chloride and gypsum. Besides, the distribution of chemical soluble is not uniform across the playa landscape resulting in the various forms of patterned grounds. Furthermore, chemical compounds, are correlated with each other. There is positive relationship between percentage changes in patterned grounds and the percentage of changes in the chemical compounds at a significant level. The greatest effect on the chemical compounds studied on the evolution of pattern grounds of the playa surfaces is related to changes in the concentration of sodium chemical composition with a correlation of about 0.35. Therefore, the most unstable pattern grounds are found in the zones where sodium and sodium chloride chemical compounds predominate. In fact, the zones of the playa surface, covered by salt shells and masses, exposed and exhibited a few prominent patterns, are patterned grounds with the predominance of chemical compounds of sodium and sodium chloride in the region. These zones are considered in the group of patterned grounds with severe regional changes. The least correlation between chemical variables and texture of the pattern grounds is related to gypsum chemical compounds. Due to the low rainfall and humidity of the region and the less tendency for this chemical composition to the process of dissolving, the time required to create the most prominent pattern grounds with the presence of this chemical composition in the playa surface is provided. Therefore, in pattern grounds, with less changes or relatively stable of the playa surface, the chemical composition of gypsum is overcome, with the most significant patterns due to the presence of gypsum chemical composition. The evaluation of pattern grounds according to the changes made in chemical compounds to detect environmental changes or other changes in the playa surface is an important issue that can indicate the desertification status and the severity of the risks of the expansion of the playa. In general, the results of this study indicate a correlation between the changes in the concentration of chemical compounds with the changes in the patterned areas of the study area. Investigating the chemical changes of the Sahl Abad playa surface indicates a slow and limited trend in the expansion of the playa during the study period. In these studies, data deficits are one of the most important problems, while the satellite data can be replaced by field observations if it is possible to provide reliable interpretations of the spectrum. Therefore, we can assess the relationship between the effective variables in the Playa expansion process, and given the fact that the process of satellite imaging is a sequential process, one can create relationships in previous studies in a region and with the advancements in technology, it instantly optimized.

Nowadays, extreme events, as one of the signs of climate change, have become major climatic hazards. The main objective of this study is to investigate the population exposed hyperthermia in Kermanshah at the time of the heat waves. In this regard, the heat waves of Kermanshah synoptic station were extracted during 2000-2015, and the heat wave in July from 7 to 13 was selected as the case study. The land surface temperature of Kermanshah city was extracted by applying a single channel algorithm on the thermal bands of ،TIRS sensor of the Landsat 8 platform for July 9, 2015. The obtained LST turned into air temperature using 09 UTC air temperature of Kermanshah meteorological Synoptic station. Using spatial statistics analysis of hot spots, critical regions of Kermanshah were identified during heat wave and the population of high risk was obtained from demographic block of 2016 census using tabular matrix analysis. The results showed that 6 districts of Kermanshah with an area of 3072 hectares form a critical heat core. The daily temperature mean of this heat core for 6 heat wave days was not less than 36 degrees Celsius, while the mean of maximum temperature of this part of the city was 47 degrees Celsius. The analysis of the tabular matrix indicates that according to the census of 2016, 0.52 of the total population of the city of Kermanshah, 492285 people, were located in the critical core area, and the population density in this core was 160 people per hectare, which is twice the density of Kermanshah city. 0.44 of the population of two demographic class (99893 people) that have high vulnerability to heat waves, heat stress and hyperthermia, namely, young children (under the age of 10) and the elderly (over the age of 60) are located in the heat core area. Nowadays, the climate change or, more precisely, global warming has had the greatest impact on different aspects of human life as the most serious environmental challenge facing human societies. Urban areas occupy less than 0.1 percent of the earth's surface (Lee and Baik, 2011), but most of the world's population (6.6 billion) is currently living in urban areas (Miller et al, 2013). High population density in urban areas, potentially increase the vulnerability of cities and cause environmental hazards to be more damaging, especially climate hazards. Over the past decades, population growth, rapid growth of industrialization, increased air pollution at low levels of the atmosphere, and the effects of island heat, cause dramatic changes in the  local weather and climate of the big cities. Increasing of climatic hazard frequency, severity and emerging climatic hazards are the most important aspects of climate change. Increasing frequency of extreme event, such as heat waves as one of the critical climatic hazards, has been listed in the World Health Organization since 2005 (Arbuthnott, 2016). The city of Kermanshah with a population of 946,651 people in 2017 is the largest city of Kermanshah province and the second most populous western city of the country after Tabriz and the ninth most populous city of Iran after Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Tabriz, Karaj, Shiraz, Ahvaz and Qom. 0.48 percent of the total populations of the Kermanshah province live in the Kermanshah city (census of 2017). The main objective of this research is to investigate the vulnerability of Kermanshah city in the face of heat waves as one of the emerging climatic hazards. Two types of data were used in this study. The first batch was observed daily air temperature data, and the second batch was Landsat 8 imagery. We calculated daily mean air temperatures obtained from synoptic station of Kermanshah. To distinguish days with extreme air temperature, we used the method of (Fumiaki et al., 2007) that is called normalized temperature deviation or Fumiaki index. Considering the fact that there is only one synoptic station located on the northeastern part of the city, it is not possible to assess the degree of damage caused by heat wave hazard in different parts of Kermanshah city. For this reason, we used data from thermal bands of Landsat 8 (10 and 11 bands) to calculate the land surface temperature of Kermanshah city for the heat wave days. First, land surface temperature was obtained by calculating the brightness temperature, and in the next step, LST was transformed to two-meter air temperature using the development of a function. The hot spots analysis model was used to identify and detect blocks or critical areas of Kermanshah city during the occurrence of heat waves. This analysis, based on Getis-Ord Gi* is used to identify areas or neighborhoods of Kermanshah where during the heat wave event their air temperature was significantly (at a confidence level of 0.95 (P_value = 0.05) higher than the surrounding area. Using tabulate matrix analysis, the relationship between detected critical temperature regions during the heat wave and the population at risk of critical temperatures were identified in different regions of Kermanshah. To assess the potential risk of hyperthermia and the population at risk of it, the heat wave of 7-12 July 2015 was selected as the case study. This heat wave began on 7 July 2015. The warmest day of this heat wave, in terms of daily maximum air temperature, was on the fourth day of the heat wave namely, 11 July. In this day, the mean air temperature of Kermanshah reached 39.3°C, while the maximum air temperature reached 43.2° C. The results of the Getis-Ord Gi hot spot analysis, show that a large part of Kermanshah's area has an instantaneous air temperature that is significantly higher than its surrounding areas. These parts of the city, which have temperatures between 42 to 45°C have a significantly higher temperature than the surrounding areas at a confidence level of 0.95 (P_value = 0.05), forming a significant hot spot. The area of this critical category was 3072 hectares, equal to 0.32 of the total area of the Kermanshah. The daily mean air temperature of this hot core was not lower than 36°C during the 6-day heat wave in 2015, while the mean maximum air temperature of this part of the city was 47°C. The results of the cross tabulate analysis reveals that, 0.522 of the total population of the city of Kermanshah, 492285 people are located in the parts of the city, which its air temperature during the heat wave is in the significant critical area based on the hot spots index. As it can be seen, out of the 40% of the Kermanshah children, 54,436 people were located in this thermal core in which mean air temperature was over 38°C. 0.38 of the elderly population of the total population (33,376 people) was also located in this hot core with a maximum air temperature of 44°C during the heat wave. It was revealed that during the heat wave, a significant part of the area of Kermanshah is exposed to the risk of critical temperatures above 40°C. The area of the city which forms the critical hot core during the heat wave includes a significant part of the population of Kermanshah that is equal to 52% of the total population of the city. Out of 40% of the Kermanshah children, 54,436 people were located in this thermal core in which mean air temperature was over 38°C. 0.38 of the elderly population of the total population (33,376 people) was also located in this hot core with a maximum air temperature of 44°C during the heat wave.

The wetlands are formed in the complex ecological, hydrological, and geological conditions, and supply a range of ecological services. Nowadays, there is the growing recognition of wetland services and benefits for human societies. Identifying and assessing wetland services as well as managing human and natural threats affecting it, in addition to maintaining the wetland ecological integrity, can also affect the economies of the local communities dependent on the wetland. Shadegan Wetland has been selected as a case study because of the diversity of its ecological structure as well as its crucial role in controlling the phenomenon of dust. The purpose of this study is to apply the ecosystem services concept in assessing and managing the wetland ecological conditions, which provides an approach for the continuation of service supply, optimal allocation of wetland resources and their effective management. Therefore, the hydrological-ecological framework has been developed based on wetland structural characteristics, functions, services and pressures imposed on them, in which two ecological and socio-economic spheres are its main structure, according to ecosystem service cascade model. The wetland classifications have been used to identify wetland structural and hydrological characteristics. The results show that Shadegan Wetland has been formed in three lotic, estuary and marine classes. The lotic part has a high potential for hydrological and biogeochemical functions such as water storage and detention, retention of sediments and particles, nutrient transformation, carbon sequestration, and all ecological functions. The marine- estuary part has a high potential for functions such as shoreline stabilization, nutrient transformation, carbon sequestration, aquatic habitat, the habitat water birds, and wildlife habitat; therefore, the Shadegan wetland provides numerous services (provisioning, regulating, habitat and cultural services). According to the compatibility matrix, the supportive and positive relationships are dominant between wetland services, and the most competitive relationship is between provisioning and regulating services. Due to the fact that Iran is a water-stressed country dominated by arid and semi-arid areas, wetlands are valuable places that lead to the preservation of the local climate and biodiversity. Destruction of wetlands and related services, due to the conditions of the country, have multiple social and economic consequences. In fact, the concepts of ecosystem services are known as an approach to analyze ecosystem conditions, and include several approaches and methods that interlink the three main concepts below:• The physical components of the ecosystem (structure),
• The functioning of and interaction between those components (process or function),
• The resultant contribution to human welfare from the ecosystem (benefit-providing service).
Selecting Shadegan International Wetland as a case study in this research, the ecosystem services approach have been applied to ecological conditions assessment of the wetland based on biophysical structures, processes, functions and ecosystem services in a hydrological-ecological framework, which provides a valuable tool for optimal allocation of wetland resources and their effective management, as well as adopting rational and sustainable policies. The proposed framework can be considered as a hierarchical approach based on the characteristics of biophysical structure, functions and ecosystem services. According to ecosystem service cascade model, the two ecological and socio-economic spheres are the main structure of the research. For investigating the factors affecting the wetland structure and basic ecological conditions in landscape scale, hydrology, geomorphology, and climate features are considered. The wetland classification have been used to identify the structural and hydrological characteristics of wetlands. The various steps of the proposed framework are as follows:- Investigating the factors affecting the wetland structure and basic ecological conditions;
-Identifying the wetland structural and hydrological characteristics;
- Identifying the biotic and abiotic characteristics of wetlands
- Identifying the most important wetland functions based on structural, hydrological and biotic characteristics;
- Identifying wetland ecosystem services and assessment of their potential supply based on structures and functions;
- Trade-off analysis of wetland ecosystem services through compatibilitymatrix;
- Identifying and assessing threats to wetland wetland services and providing management strategies. Information related to the wetland ecology, hydrology and geomorphology characteristics has been provided from previous studies, Wetland Management Plan, satellite imageries, Google Earth, field visits, interviews with experts of environmental department Shadegan and local people living in the villages within the wetland.
Investigating the factors affecting the wetland structure and basic ecological conditions, firstly,the climatic characteristics of the region for 17 meteorological stations in or near the Jarrahi Catchment during the period of 10 years (2008-2017) have been investigated. The results indicate that the average temperature during the year varies from 11°C in the winter to 36°C in the summer, and the average precipitation varies from zero to 200 mm; therefore, the rainfall regime is a Mediterranean in which the main part of rainfall occurs during the winter and autumn seasons.
In terms of hydrological andgeomorphological features, the northern part of the wetland has been formed from overflowing water of permanent rivers through the waterways, so the position of this wetland can be considered a lotic river.The water is fresh and its physical form is floodplain and water flow path is through flow. The southern part of the wetland is connected to the Persian Gulf and is flooded through the tidal waters of the Persian Gulf and estuaries. Therefore, the position is estuary-marine and its physical form is fringe. The wetland is subject to frequent tidal flood and a bidirectional tidal water flow path.The wetland can be divided into three distinct structural-functional divisions: floodplain lotic wetland with through flow; fringe estuarine with tidal flow; fringe marine with tidal flow. The lotic part has a high potential for hydrological and biological functions such as water storage and detention, retention of sediments and particles, nutrient transformation, carbon sequestration and all ecological functions.The Marine- estuary part has a high potential for functions such as shoreline stabilization, nutrient transformation, carbon sequestration, aquatic habitat, water bird habitat, and wildlife habitat. Shadegan Wetland because of structural conditions and ecological diversity and the belonging to three different wetland class, provides numerous services. According to the compatibility matrix, the supportive and positive relationships between the services of the wetland are dominant.
The management strategies are developed based on EBM-DPSER model and trade-off analysis of wetland ecosystem services.The most important management strategies include the following:-          Preparation of the wetland land use map and zoning of the wetland to appropriate and allowed areas for human activities;
-          Investigating existing livelihood patterns and providing alternative and eco-friendly livelihoods in the region;
-          Investigating existing livelihood patterns and providing alternative and eco-friendly livelihoods in the region;
-          Establishing a legal mechanism for allocating the right of water wetland from the upstream rivers and restoring the wetland share of the agricultural, industrial and energy sectors;
-          Identifying the main sources of dust and developing biomechanical and bioengineering plans using the existing capacities in the province, especially attracting local people's participation. The proposed framework has gone beyond the traditional approaches to assessing and managing wetlands, which have not yet been effective and are not based on the understanding of the structure and functions of wetlands. It also improves the process of wetlands assessing and managing in the country by applying an ecosystem services approach to identify the services and benefits of wetlands, main beneficiaries, threats to the services and provisioning the management strategies and decisions, in the form of indicators and conceptual models.

Today, the tourism industry goes beyond an industry, as a dynamic global and social phenomenon that has its own complexity and the exact recognition and scientific analysis of this phenomenon can provide a safe framework for the planning of the tourism industry. Tourism is considered as the greatest social mobility with cultural, economic and spatial multiple effects which always needs to be effective in its current and future development. In this regard, planning for the development of tourism is dependent on the various factors and conditions that can be achieved if they are systematically and structurally applied. This topic indicates the importance of future research and tries to formulate the future need prospects in the development of tourism. Therefore, in this research, it has been tried to identify and analyze the key factors of tourism development. In this study, the first 36 factors in five different areas of socio-cultural, economic, management and planning, infrastructure-services and extracted natural factors were obtained through environmental and Delphi scanning techniques and then, using the Delphi method of administrators. The matrix of cross-component effects of the components has been formed. For the next step, the Micmac software is applied in matrix analysis. The results of the dispersion of variables in the scales of influence and dependent of factors in the Mick-Mac software indicate the system's instability in the tourism of case study and on that basis, five categories of variables were identified. Finally, considering the high point of direct and indirect effects of factors, thirteen major factors were identified as key factors in the development of tourism in the cities of Mazandaran province. Among these key factors of case study the variables of the infrastructure and services sector had the highest impact on tourism development of case study, while the natural factors had the least impact degree. Undoubtedly, tourism is an organized form of human activity in production, consumption which has been an incredible and global attempt. Tourism with promise of employment is one of the most attractive development strategies that can play an important role in the broader concept of development, namely, competitiveness in cities. Competitiveness in any field is not possible without achieving sustained planning and based on the design of the key factors with future research approach. The awareness and understanding of effective issues and factors on development, along with the using of management approaches of future research and the design of key factors, are an effective feature of this approach. Therefore, the necessity of using this approach in the case study was proposed until with this way, key factors of tourism development would be identified. The present research is an applied one in terms of its purpose and descriptive-analytical in term of its method. Environmental and Delphi scanning techniques are used to identify variables and indicators. In this regard, in the first stage, online articles and a review of published articles in the effective factors on tourism development were used to collect variables. Then semi-structured questionnaire was distributed among professional experts in the field of tourism who were asked to score in the framework of the matrix of cross-effects of variables, based on the influence and dependent with numbers in the range of 0 to 3 points. In this research, a purposeful sampling method was used to select the participants consciously. The statistical population of this research is 50 experts in the field of tourism including the experts from the municipalities of the studied cities, the Tourism and Heritage Organization, and some university professors in the case Study. Validity of the questionnaire was reviewed and verified by the experts. The reliability of the questionnaire was also used by Cronbach's alpha. Tourism is a multi-species activity and dependent from large number of factors and influent on many phenomena. On the other hand, the necessity of tourism infrastructure in tourist cities and the uncertainty caused by environmental complexities make it difficult to plan and forecast the future in these cities. So that traditional programming can no longer respond to them, and the need for a new approach, such as a future research approach, has been raised predicting the future and explaining the solutions which can provide access to favorable conditions. Therefore, in this research, it has been tried to identify the key proponents of tourism development in Mazandaran province by combining the tourism system attitude with the future research approach.  The status of the dispersion page of the affect variables on the development of tourism in the cities of Mazandaran province is the unstable situation of the system. Regarding the system instability, five variables including determinants or influential variables, two-way variables, regulatory variables, dependent variables or outcome, independent variables were identified in this system. Finally, after conducting different analysis of direct and indirect dependent and influence, 36 factors were ranked and finally 13 factors were selected as the key factors of tourism development in Mazandaran province. This research is based on a new approach to plan (Future Research) with the aim of identifying key factors for the future development of tourism in the cities of Mazandaran, 36 primary factors include socio-cultural factors, economic factors, planning and management factors, infrastructure and service factors, and natural factors were extracted. Then, using the structural analysis in the Micmac software, these factors were measured. Based on the results obtained from structural analysis in the graph, the dependent and influence of the variables in case study show that the factors of the service and infrastructure sector with the total score of 502, the most influential and social and cultural factors with a score of 192, have the least influential on the future of tourism development in the cities of Mazandaran province. Finally, 13 key factors as the most influential factors on the tourism future of Mazandaran province were selected as key factors: Welfare services, urban green space, expansion of tourism-related spaces, competitiveness, regional transportation network, tourism tours, climatic conditions, private sector investment, urban transport network, security, Infrastructure, distribution of facilities. These factors are the most important factors influencing on tourism development in the case study. Finally, based on the results of structural analysis in Micmac software, among the five areas of the case study, the service and infrastructure sector factors were identified as the most influential factors on the system. However, it should be noted that selection is not enough and there should be an accurate and coherent planning about these key factor, so that, with the use of existing potentials and capacities, sustainable development of tourism in these cities is possible.

The use of unconditional production inputs to increase performance over the last decade which leads to the degradation of the environment and human health, has underscored the importance of sustainable agriculture and continued production along with the preservation of natural resources. In this regard, identifying the barriers and challenges of sustainable agricultural development seems essential. In fact, agricultural planners and policy makers can use them to plan for sustainable agricultural development. Therefore, in this research, this issue has been investigated in southern Kerman province, which has a significant share in agricultural production. In this survey research, the statistical population consisted of all farmers who were selected as a sample farmer in 2001-2017 by the Agricultural Jihad of south of Kerman province (N = 374). The data were gathered through a questionnaire and library studies. In order to determine the validity of the content, the experts used the Cronbach's alpha (0.81) to verify the reliability of the instrument. However, to analyze the data were analyzed by SPSS18 and LISREL8.5 using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis in the present study. The results of exploratory factor analysis showed that 5 factors, Supportive, research-promotion, market and product, technical, technological, and cultural-social, respectively, were 19.9, 18.6, 14.5, 10.4 and 7.3 percent of the variance, in which 70/90 percent of the total variance of the sustainable development challenges in the south of Kerman province is explained. We call development "sustainable" times that are not destructive and provide the opportunity to preserve resources, including water, soil, genetic resources, herbs and animals. In sustainable development, the principle is that basic natural resources are protected in such a way that future generations can at least produce and consume the current generation. The southern province of Kerman, with its significant share of agricultural production in the country, continues to use the principles and methods based on the Green Revolution in its agricultural activities. This has led to the concerns about the negative effects of modern agriculture on human health, the environment and natural resources. In recent decades, in response to these concerns, the development and application of a new form of agriculture to sustainable agriculture has been considered. One of the measures that was considered essential for sustainable development in agriculture was to identify and investigate the challenges and obstacles it faces to the elite farmers in the region, which is the aim of the present study. The statistical population of the study includes the top farmers of Agriculture - Jihad Organization in Jiroft, Kahnouj, Anbarabad, Faryab, South Roodbar, Manoujan, Qaleh Ganj areas in the South of Kerman province during the years 2001-2017. 374 people were present who were interviewed but we succeeded to collect 320 questionnaires. The data gathering tool in this research was a questionnaire with two parts of individual and professional information and challenges of sustainable development in the south of Kerman province. Major challenges to sustainable agriculture development were extracted from previous research and allocation opinions and were given to elite farmers to express their opinions. In order to determine the validity of the content, a preliminary questionnaire was given to the experts and made the necessary reviews and corrections. In order to calculate the reliability of the Cronbach's alpha method, the pre-test of sustainable agriculture challenges scale was 0.81, indicating an appropriate reliability of the research tool. In this research, exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis methods were used by spss18 and Lisrel 8.8 software. In the first stage, the data analysis was used for exploratory factor analysis. The KMO coefficient and Bartlett statistics were used from the perspective of farmers in southern Kerman province to determine the suitability of the data collected in the context of factor analysis of the challenges of producing sustainable products. The value of this coefficient was 0.76, which indicates that the correlations between the data are suitable for exploratory factor analysis. The results of exploratory factor analysis showed that five extracted factors, Supportive, research-extension, market input and product, Technical and technological problems, cultural and social problems with special value, 3.6, 5.9, 4.6, 3.2 and 3.2, respectively, were 19.9, 18.6, 14.5, and 4, respectively. 10/7/7% of the variance, and, in total, 90/70% of the variance of the total sustainable development challenges in the south of Kerman province. In the second stage, the confirmatory factor analysis was used. The results of the fitting indices, standard factor loads, t and P-values ​​indicated that the model fitted and verified the results of the exploratory factor analysis. Due to the global importance to transfer from traditional agriculture to sustainable one, it is necessary to recognize the barriers and challenges of sustainable agricultural development. In fact, this way can pave the way for the planners and managers of the agricultural, environmental and health sectors. In this research, five categories of the most important challenges of sustainable development of agriculture were identified in southern Kerman province. The most important of them are policy and management challenges.  Supportive challenges are the lack of appropriate insurance for products, lack of incentive rules for farmers to use sustainable farming principles, unproductive import of crops with similar domestic production, poor enforcement for agricultural development programs in sustainable agriculture development. Establishing appropriate policies to support and support producers, they maintain the ability to produce high quality and quantity, which can focus on the production of healthy products for the sustainability of production units in each of the three, including the economic, social and environmental dimension. Therefore, policymakers in the country and the region do not provide the required policies for this sector by establishing a national document on sustainable development in agriculture.

The flood is devastating and destructive which may cause damages in urban areas. Resiliency to greater vulnerability emphasizes positive aspects, and today governments are working to improve life in the areas at risk by promoting resilience to natural disasters. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reaction of jiroft urban managers facing the flood as an environmental hazards with emphasis on resiliency. Library methods (books, articles, documents, internet ...) and field studies have been used to collect information. Statistical society of the research includes the urban managers in Jiroft city in which 20 participants were selected randomly using Delphi technique. Analyzing the data, statistical tests, one-sample t-test and stepwise regression and the DEMATEL and BWM model were used to prioritize the significance score and the effect of the indices. The results of a one-sample t-test for evaluating the local management response in promoting the spatial resiliency against flood in Jiroft city show that there is no significant difference between the base limit (3) and the calculated value of 3/17. The results of stepwise regression show that the institutional-managerial index with the beta coefficient of 0/347 has the highest effect, while the physical-physical index with the beta coefficient of 0/302 has the least effect on the resiliency management in Jiroft city. The results of DEMATEL technique show that among the indices affecting the resiliency of Jiroft, city against flood, the social index with 43/385 had the highest interaction and institutional-managerial index has with 43/352 minimum interaction, the social index with 1/474 the most effective factor and the economic index with the value of -1/008 is the most influential factor. The results of BWM technique reveal that social index with the value of /258 is placed in the first rank, institutional-managerial index with the value of /252 in the second rank, the physical-environmental index with the value of /245 in the third place and economic index with the value of /244 in the fourth rank. Today, cities and communities are mostly located in the places which are exposed both to natural disasters due to natural hazards, and various types of human accidents due to technological advances. In terms of occurrence, the flood is the highest and in terms of damage it is considered to be the most costly natural disaster in the world which has an impact on human societies. Meanwhile, the concept of resiliency is a new concept that should be the central concept of all disaster management and development programs in the community. Flood basins in Jiroft have been affected by floods in recent years, with many damages including land destructions and riverside gardens, the destruction of livestock, housing and public infrastructure such as road networks and communication bridges and even deaths. Therefore, promoting the resilience of the city of Jiroft against natural hazards, especially floods, is imperative for urban managers to be prepared. The purpose of this study is to assess the role of urban managers in promoting resiliency in the face of flood in Jiroft city. Regarding the main objective of the research, library methods (books, articles, documents, internet ...) and field studies have been used to collect information. Statistical society of the research includes the urban managers in Jiroft city in which 20 participants were selected randomly using delphi technique. Statistical tests, one-sample t-test and stepwise regression were applied to analyze the data. Moreover, DEMATEL technique was applied to determine the importance of the coefficient and prioritize the criteria using MATLAB and BWM software LINGO 11 software. The results of the single sample T for measuring the resilience of Jiroft city managers against the flood crisis in the sample population indicate that there is no significant difference between the baseline (3) and the calculated value (3/17) (sig = 179) . Since the calculated value is more than standard, it can be concluded that the city of Jiroft is in a relatively suitable position in terms of the role of urban management in the face of crises and disasters caused by the flood.
Multiple regressions can be used to measure the factors of the Jiroft city's flood alleviation and create a causal model that illustrates the interactions between indicators and reagents. In general, the institutional-management index with the beta coefficient of 0/347 has the highest effect, while the physical-environmental index with the beta coefficient of 0/302 has the least effect on resilience of the Jiroft city to the flood.
Dimetal model in overlapping multiple regression and to achieve the research goal. Among the indicators that affect the resilience of the flood in Jiroft, the social index with the highest value of 43/358 is the most interaction and the institutional- managerial index with the least amount of interaction with 43/352, the social index with the 1/741 most effective factor and the economic index with the value of -1/008. The most influential factor.
The final step in determining the rank of each factor affecting the resilience of the city of Jiroft is the model of the best and worst method that the researchers will achieve in their final destination. The results of the best and worst case model show that the social index with the value of 0/258 is ranked first, institutional-management index with the value of 0/252 in the second rank, the physical-environmental index with a value of 0/254 in the third, and, finally, the economic index with The value of 0/244 is in fourth place.
According to the statistical tests and multi-index models used in the research, there is a significant relationship between urban management and flood. In other words, the greater the response of urban management, the lower the risk of flood. The current status of Jiroft city resilience management is in desirable condition in all indicators. In other words, the average of all indicators is higher than the base (3). In this regard, Farzad Behtash et al in evaluating and analyzing the dimensions and components of the resilience of the metropolitan city of Tabriz, estimated the average of the Tabriz city's wavering (less than 3), which suggests that the city Tabriz is in an unfavorable situation in terms of resilience. In other words, the condition of the city of Tabriz is inappropriate. Therefore, it can be admitted that, in spite of the difference in the location of the city, the two cities of city management have had a different experience in dealing with the flood crisis. The results of a one-sample t-test for measuring the local management response in promoting the spatial resiliency against flood in Jiroft city show that there is no significant difference between the base limit (3) and the calculated value of 3/17. The results of stepwise regression show that the institutional-managerial index with the beta coefficient of /347 has the highest effect and the physical-physical index with the beta coefficient of /302 has the least effect on the resiliency management in Jiroft city. The results of DEMATEL technique show that among the indices affecting the resiliency of Jiroft city against flood, the social index with 43/385 had the highest interaction, institutional-managerial index with 43/352 has the minimum interaction, the social index index with 1/474 the most effective factor and the economic index with the value of -1/008 is the most influential factor. The results of BWM technique reveal that The results of BWM technique reveal that social index with the value of /258 is placed in the first rank, institutional-managerial index with the value of /252 in the second rank, the physical-environmental index with the value of /245 in the third place and economic index with the value of /244 in the fourth rank.