نشریه مطالعات جمعیتی
پیاپی 4 (پاییز و زمستان 1395)

The size, structure and growth rate of the population have reciprocal and complicated relationships with social-economic conditions. Population characteristics play an important role in economical policy making and strategic planning of the country. Population can influence economy through supplying skilled and professional human resources as major input in economic sectors. On the other hand, economic and employment conditions of the country have important role in youth’s decision making with regard to marriage and childbearing.  Numerous studies have investigated the effect of employment and economical conditions on fertility or the effect of population age structure on economic characteristics, independently.  However, researches about simultaneous effects of these factors and interactions between these sectors within a single holistic model are scarce. In this paper, it is aimed to assess the reciprocal interaction between population variables (such as age structure, marriage, fertility), and economic factors (such as employment and occupational security, gross domestic income and welfare) using a systemic perspective and system dynamics approach. Precise and in-depth understanding of interactions between system components will assist managers to distinguish the structural causes of social-economic system behaviors, and also gain a better perspective towards challenges ahead. Obviously, using these results, planners and policy makers would be able to consider various aspects of decisions in comprehensive planning and policy makings in the country in order to achieve optimum efficiency in resource allocation.

Female labor force participation (FLP) has been shown to be inversely correlated with fertility based on most literature. However, despite a considerable decline in fertility rate in Iran over the past two decades, women's participation in labor force has not been increased significantly. To investigate the issue, this study is following two objectives First, to explain the relationship between the FLP and childbearing, theoretically. Second, to study empirically the matter using the data of Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) conducted by the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) in years 1991 to 2012. Based on the theoretical model, two mutual relationships can be explained for FLP and childbearing.  In one hand, female labor force participation can lead to increase of family income and fertility. On the other hand, there is the substitution effect by which a woman who has desire to bear a child, would undermine her economic participation. Existence of both effects system was confirmed, using simultaneous equations in provincial panel data. To encounter this endogeneity problem, we employed an instrument variable as “same gender of the first two children” for decision of having another child. Based on the results, the relationship between FLP and fertility in Iran is based on the income effect. Accordingly, the substitution effect of childbearing and labor force participation which is under influence of cultural factors, has been evolved. Hence, it does not seem that facilitating FLP and support of employed women would be a threat to fertility behaviors in Iran. Even, it might be considered as an encouraging policy for childbearing by enhancing family income

from an economic perspective. Newer theories arose from the microeconomics of fertility have attributed the low fertility ideals to the economic insecure conditions and a response to the gap between economic realities and expectations. Specifically, the adherents of risk aversion theory have conceived the delay in marriage and low childbearing ideas as individual's behavioral management mechanism related to their economic conditions or expectations. This study has investigated the relationship between economic insecurity and the marriage and fertility ideals among mothers and younger generation (their unmarried youth children) in Sanandaj district. The data was derived from "Sanandaj's Fertility Ideals and Behaviors Survey (SFIBS) in 2014" and a sample of 210 mothers and 210 unmarried youth children of them in survey's households were considered. The results showed both difference in background characteristics and marital and fertility ideals of the two generations, and significant relationship between economic insecurity and marital and fertility ideals. Moreover, the results of multivariate analyses showed that economic insecurity, after control of effect of age, residence location and education explains the low marriage and fertility ideals among the two generations. According to these results, to prevent greater reduction in fertility ideals and resulted very low fertility, population policies need to be introduced based on the economic situation of young people in marriage age and couples in childbearing ages.  Finally, the prioritization of supportive programs that ensures economic security for young people is utmost important to facilitate the realization of the marriage and childbearing ideals.

In recent years, economic and social conditions in Tehran have made many families to increasingly reflect on and raise questions about childbearing. The primary aim of this research is to explore the role of economic and social rationality in childbearing behaviour among families in Tehran using grounded theory approach. This study also deals with questions of “how Tehranian families define economic and social rationality in relation to their childbearing behaviour?, and “How do they react to their interpretation of childbearing in reality?” . To answer these questions, the qualitative research method, using grounded theory approach was employed. A combination of theoretical, purposive and snowball sampling was used to collect the sample. In-depth interviews were conducted with 89 married men and women aged 15-49 years(60 women and 29 men). The results showed that, the feeling economical and social insecurity and also the growing costs of children creates some grounds to  define childbearing as a long-term commitment and binding responsibility and families seek to withdraw from an irreversible decision. The conditions lead Tehranian families emphasize quality rather than quantity and thus opted for low fertility as a rational behaviour. The implication of these results is that policy makers and planners need to apply the mechanisms of economic stability and sustainable occupation.

Correlation between shared activities with spouse and stability of marriage has been confirmed in several previous studies.The purpose of this article is to determine determinants of shared activities with spouse in different dimentions as married lifestyle.  A sample of 1736 married men and women  was collected using a cross sectional survey  Multi-stage cluster sampling method was used to collect the data and due to the different economic and social classes of people, 50 geographical regions in Tehran were selected. The instrument was questionnaire and data was analysed using  explanatory factor analysis and multivariate regression. In explanatory factor analysis, five dimentions for shared activities were exracted and the impact of social and economic characteristics, factors related to the life cycle, gender attitudes, marital variables and work-family conflict on these dimensions were examined. The results showed shared activity with spouse was greater among  men, educated people, people with egalitarian gender attitudes, and people with more homogeneity wih spouse. The importance of  homogeneity wih spouse and gender attitudes was  greatest while the role of  factors related to the life cycle was the least. Income, income difference, work-family conflict, and marital duration had a dual role in different dimentions of married lifestyle. This model had the greatest explanatory power in social contact (29.5 percent) and the lowest explanatory power in spending money (10.3 percent). Shared activities with spouse were not the same in different dimentions. Determinants and severity of effects were also different. The results confirms the theories  of  exchange, cultural capital and new home economic.

Family Health is one of the key areas, in which achievement of scientific and sound knowledge  is very important. This paper aims to assess and compare family health and its influential social factors in two cities of Yazd and Tehran. Social exchange theory, social learning theory, systems theory, kinship networks, and ecological theory have been employed as theoretical framework in this study. The data was collected by survey questionnaire from 400 residents of households in Yazd and Tehran using multistage cluster sampling method.  A scale designed to measure the degree of family health at six different dimensions for both Yazd and Tehran. Findings of the study revealed a better family health among families in Yazd city compared to that of the Tehran. Moreover, family health was an average level. The results of multiple regression analysis identified three variables as significant predictors of  family health in the two cities: 1. power structure in the families, 2. the disorder of previous family and 3. kinship relations. From among these, the power structure in the family played the greatest role in the explanation of family health. In addition, education and mass media had positive and negative effect on family health in Tehran, respectively .

According to the second demographic transition theory, the substantial changes in family formation patterns such as increasing trends of divorce are recognized as the main characteristics of the contemporary family and new demography. The present study examines the major patterns and determinants of the attitudes towards divorce. This study is based on a survey conducted in rural and urban areas of Ahvaz, Babolsar, Bojnord, Gonbad Kavos, Mahmoudabad, and Hamadan. The survey was conducted among 2787 males and females aged 15 years and older . The results indicate that about one-third of the respondents hold positive attitudes toward divorce. Further, this general pattern is significantly associated with demographic determinants such as age, gender, place of residence, education, and other factors such as gender roles and religiosity. In sum, the main findings observed in this analysis tend to be consistent with the theory of modernization and changing values  suggesting that attitudes towards divorce is directly and positively affected by modern and liberal perspectives.