فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 90 (تابستان 1398)

In this paper we measure the price stickiness in Iran’s economy. More specifically, we use
sub-aggregates data of consumer price index from 1990:3 to 2014:2 to investigate the analyze the frequency and size of price changes and test whether they are affected from the CPI variations. This is important as it determined how much the monetary authority can expect to have influence on the real economy in the short term. We find that price changes happen very frequently in the Iran’s economy averaged approximately around three months. We also find a positive correlation between the frequency and size of the price changes and the inflation rate, where there is a difference between low and high inflation rates. Moreover, we find that in contrast to goods with prices determined in the market, the price regulated goods have no significant relationship with inflation.

Following the 2008 financial crisis, the application of macro-prudential policies has expanded to ensure financial stability. In addition, in most oil-exporting economies, oil revenues are an important source of fluctuations in macroeconomic variables and, therefore, calls for the use of macroeconomic stabilization policies. Considering the vulnerability of financial stability in the Iranian economy as an oil exporting country, the purpose of this study is to investigate the role of macroprudential policies in financial stability and their interaction with macroeconomic policies, in particular monetary policy. For this purpose, a macro-financial model with the approach of DSGE and with regard to the banking system, as the most important part of the financial sector in Iran's economy, has been designed. In this model, the banking system's problems, such as NPLs and toxic assets of banks, are included. The results of model simulations based on seasonal information of Iran's economy during the period of 1990-2016 indicate that the adoption of macroprudential policy and its instruments such as a loan-to-value ratio and counter-cyclical capital buffer reduce the volatility and vulnerability of the financial sector. Moreover, with regards to the institutional relationship between macroprudential and monetary policy, the research findings show that the cooperation of these two institutions increases the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and improves social welfare as well.

Housing is one of the most important and most expensive assets of the human life. It is an expensive commodity that requires long-term planning to purchase it, so housing affordability in the household budget portfolio is one of the most important issues. In this paper, based on Zhang (2015) model and Matlack and Vigdor (2008) study and using a cross-sectional household income - expenditure microdata generated by the Iranian Statistics Center, we generate pseudo-panel data. We make cohorts by repeated cross sectional data and monitor family behavior for 25 years. This study was conducted for the period of 1991 to 2015 and includes seven metropolises: Tehran, Karaj, Mashhad, Isfahan, Tabriz, Shiraz and Ahwaz, which covers only urban areas. The target population studied in this study is those who were born between the years 1930-1989. The empirical results demonstrate that higher per capita income inequality of household within metropolises has a negative and significant effect on residual income (household non-housing expenses) and a positive and significant effect on the house price and rent. That is, higher income inequality is related to a lower residual income, higher rent-to-income ratio and higher housing-price-to-income ratio for low-income households.In particular, a rise in income inequalities, as increase in gap between high-income groups and low incomes, lead to a reduction in housing affordability of middle/low-income households, and the quality of use of these households is significantly reduced. The results also show that permanent income has a positive and significant effect on housing affordability, and higher permanent income leads to increase in residual income.

With respect to targeting high economic growth rate and lack of financial resources, identifying key sectors and measuring inter-sectoral interactions in in the economy is becoming increasingly important. There is no doubt that the electricity sector in the economy plays a vital role in the development of other sub-sectors and it is expected that there will be a positive relationship between the growth and development of the subsectors of the economy and the electricity sector. In this paper, for the first time we have applied generalize (partial) hypothetical extraction method for studying the consequences of 20 percent shutdown in the electricity sector supply on output of other sectors and complete extraction electricity on output of economy. Also, in order to investigate the dependence between the electricity sector and other sectors of the economy, forward and backward linkage of this sector have also been analyzed. Updated domestic Input-Output Tables in 1390 with 71 sector and aggregated table in 13 sectors is the basis of calculation. The results show that extraction electricity, the economy’s total value added was decreased about 1.76 percent due to complete extraction of electricity sector. Also following partial extraction (20 percent) of electricity sector the largest decreases in value added take place in the radio, TV and Electrical devices and in residential units and compulsory social security, had the least changes in the value added that reflected low dependency of mentioned sectors on electricity sector. In addition, the measurement of forward and backward linkage of the electricity sector among energy sub-sectors shows that the electricity sector after the oil products sector plays a major role in the development of other products of the economy, in fact, considering that backward linkage is higher than forward linkage in electricity sector, investment in the electricity sector will bring more benefits to other sectors of the economy.

The processes of collective action of individuals within the government organization and the formation and modification of these processes in the private sector have fundamental differences with collective action. A collective action, either in the form of an activity or in the form of a reform of an entity, both has transaction costs for agents within the process. So, a collective action within the government organization is like an institutional reform that is regarded as a voluntary public good that needs active participation of various political, administrative, and economic agents. In this paper, we tend to provide a framework for reviewing the collective action of these agents in order to facilitate investment in North Khorasan province as an example of economic reform. The data are collected by questionnaire and analyzed by statistical methods, three groups of political, administrative and economic agents active in the province. The results indicate that 10 components of values and norms, learning and repetition, group size, free riding, rent seeking, incomplete information, selective incentives, conflicts of interest, individuals and groups of beneficiaries, and heterogeneity of individuals, all have significant effect on the collective action of political, administrative and economic agents of this province. Moreover, a significant part of the collective action differences between these agents is explained by the components of transaction costs, including three categories such as search and information costs, bargaining and execution costs, and post contractual guarantee or feedback costs.

Achieving the goals of price stability, sustainable economic growth, and the improvement of many economic variables require coordination between the monetary and financial authorities. In this study, a new modified Keynesian stochastic dynamic equilibrium general equilibrium model is introduced for Iran and in the framework of game theory, optimal policy of fiscal and monetary authorities are derived and estimated using Bayesian approach under a Nash equilibrium game based on the independent decision-making of two players, a Stackelberg game with both fiscal and monetary policy leadership and the co-operative game. The results suggest that the best welfare would happen if the two policymakers cooperate and put more weight on inflation and in general, this approach will have lower losses than other games. Therefore, the model recommends that the two policies pursue bilateral cooperation to achieve the common goal of controlling inflation and maintaining economic stability and to do so, prioritize inflation control. In addition, if monetary and fiscal policy makers do not cooperate, monetary policy leadership is likely to be the second priority, as this would be less harmful to both policy makers.

The purpose of this paper is to study The social cost of carbon (SCC) is an important concept for understanding and implementing climate change policies, In Iran using economic data of the time period (1390-1395). This term represents the economic cost caused by an additional ton of carbon dioxide emissions or its equivalent. In this study three approaches to investigate and compare the results have been used, the approach is the use of applying the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and Economy (DICE-2016R). World Bank indices and energy balance sheet, the amount of years of life lost. The study estimates that the SCC is 513891.232 Rial per ton of CO2 in 1395 and international prices for the current period (1400). Also, the results indicate that, following the implementation of carbon emission control policies, production and consumption in early periods will be reduced And with the replacement of technology, it's going up. The important point of the paper is that using the lost years of life results in more reliable results than other methods.

Due to the structure of exchange rate regime in Iran and its dependence on oil revenues in recent decades, it is expected that exchange rate changes can be regarded as a consequence of major changes in oil price. In this regard, the exchange rate increases and decreases can influence the level of employment of firms by affecting the amount of their profitability, and of course, this kind of influence can be asymmetric. Based on this, the present study has investigated the non-linear effect of exchange rate on employment in Iran in the framework of a basic model and five sectoral models (agriculture; services; mining; water, electricity and gas; manufacturing and construction sectors). For this purpose, a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach and annual data in period 1968-2017 have been used. The results of the basic model show that increases in exchange rate do not have a significant effect on total employment, but decreases in exchange rate have a reverse effect on total employment. Similarly, the model estimation for five sectors shows that increases in exchange rate do not have a significant effect on employment of these sectors. However, the effect of decreases in exchange rate on employment in services, mining, water, electricity, and gas; manufacturing; and construction sectors is reversed. Hence, to sum up, for four sectors including mining, water, electricity and gas, manufacturing and construction (partially), the exchange rate has had an asymmetric effect on employment in Iran economy.

Stock price and its changes which reflect the individuals’ investment decisions in economic environment are the most important factors in evaluating the economic value of a company in stock market. Stock price changes are not independent of each other. Therefore, study of the correlation between stock price changes provides a better understanding of market performance for investors. Analysis of the stock market based on complex networks makes it possible to study the correlation of stock prices. In this paper, using the stock market data in Tehran Stock Exchange, Iran's stock market network is created by the threshold method, then the structural characteristics of the network are examined and the stock centrality is calculated. By examining the criterion of the stock centrality in the network and ranking industries based on it, results show that the industries producing chemical products with a relatively higher value added ratio have the highest degree of centrality among other industries. In addition, major economic sectors with more growth are relatively more centralized. Hence, if the industry has more growth, the relationship between its stocks may be stronger and more centralized. In other words, sectoral growth in Iran economy can reflect in centrality or relationship between stocks in that sector. These analyses provide a more in-depth insight into the structure of the stock market.

Being aware of the status of the business environment and trying to improve it have been known as essential economic strategies for governments. The business environment improvement is a basis of competitive advantage and accelerates the process of globalization. It is also known as one of the requirements of creating a competitive environment and privatization process. So, the continuous monitoring of the business environment which is affected by various factors is necessary for timely adjustment and decision making. Based on the plan of the business environment monitoring approved by the Islamic Parliament of Iran, this study has provided 350 economic activists whose activities were selected based on the defined ISIC codes, with a standard questionnaire to evaluate the status of the business environment for economic activities in Isfahan. Then, the collected data have been analyzed using appropriate statistical methods and the results have been presented in two parts of descriptive and inferential analysis. To achieve more accurate results from the questionnaires, the qualitative aspect of the problems and their possible solutions have also been presented through interviews with experts of various economic sections in Isfahan. According to the interviews results, it was founded that banks facilities, taxation problems, instability of the production and investment regulations, lack of updates in the rules governing the organizations and their subsidiaries and finally, inappropriate status of the customs have had the most frequencies.

The attraction of foreign investment is one of the economic priorities in developing countries, including Iran. But increasing uncertainty in this field has led policy making toward new approaches such as strategic foresight. The main purpose of this study is to develop scenarios to attract foreign investment in Iran. The research method is scenario planning and in order to identify the "key drivers," the experts' opinions were gathered using open and closed questionnaires in two steps, and then were drawn in the Wilson matrix based on “agreement coefficient" and "arithmetic mean" indicators. The findings, based on different status of drivers and investigating their interaction using Scenario Wizard software, reveal the feasibility of five scenarios with internal consistency. In addition to its practical aspect, this research can be regarded as a new model for future researches on policy making to attract investment in Iran. Finally, based on the results of the research, some strategic recommendations have been presented to develop the foreign investment attraction in Iran.

Privatization means assigning the ownership and management of the state firms to the private sector. Following this, it is expected that the efficiency of firms will increase, and so the firms gain more benefits. In the present paper, the performance of the state, private and privatized banks have been compared through studying the effects of privatization on the performance of banking system in terms of liquidity. This study has been conducted using the data of 11 banks during a 13-year period (2005-2017). Three groups of tests including panel regression tests, parametric and non-parametric tests have been used which all three tests have had the same results. The panel regression model has been used to study the effects of privatization on liquidity of the banking system as a whole. The results of model estimation show that privatization has had a significant and positive impact on banks performance in terms of liquidity. In the next step, parametric and non-parametric tests have been conducted to compare the performance of privatized banks in periods after and before applying the privatization. The results show a significant difference in these two periods. Then, the performances of privatized banks in the periods before and after applying the privatization have been compared to the performances of state and private banks. Findings show that compared with state and private banks, the performance of privatized banks has been improved.

In the past decades, the discussions between economists have changed of impact or no impact of monetary policy to effective monetary policy channels. Since, The housing sector has a large share in the household consumption basket, gross domestic product and wealth of the private sector, Then this sector play very decisive role in transfer transfer of monetary policy effects on production. Therefore, in this study, the asymmetric transmission of monetary policy has been evaluated through the housing price channel. For this porpuse were used the non-linear MSVAR technique and time series data of Iran's economy were used during the 1992 to 2017 seasons. The results of the research indicate that the effects of monetary policy on the economy have been asymmetric from the housing price channel. As in the years after 2008 (Regime 0). the share of the housing price channel in the transfer of monetary policy to production was less than regime1 (the years before 2008). Also, the effects of monetary policy have been more influenced by prices in regime 1. The results indicate that the share of housing prices in the production volatility in regime1 and in the short and long term is 56% and 50%, respectively, which is about 7% and 6% for regime 0. Hence, the housing price channel in regime 0is less important than regime1.