نشریه مدلسازی اقتصاد سنجی
سال چهارم شماره 2 (پیاپی 13، بهار 1398)

Achieving economic growth and development is one of the most important goals of macro policies for policy makers and economic planners. In this paper, the impact of the budget on economic growth in the provinces has been evaluated by considering the budget and government expenditure in each province. For this purpose, information from the period of 1380-1396 has been used. The method used in this study was Panel VAR. The results indicate that the allocated budget allocations to each province have had a positive effect on the economic growth of that province. But the results indicate that with the increase in budget funding in the country's major provinces, economic growth in neighboring provinces has declined due to increased immigration.

Referring to recent studies, considering the linear relationship between production and spending can lead to misleading results. Therefore, this study aimed at examining the asymmetric adjustment of government size and production in the Iranian economy, using the seasonal data of the 1969-1996 period and applying threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) to re-examining Wagner's law in Iran. The results of the study indicate that Wagner's law is valid for Iran's economy but there is a causal relationship between GDP and government (ratio of government expenditure to gross domestic product), since Wagner's law in the normal regime (a regime with shrinking shocks) and in the regime of boundaries (the regime with incremental shocks) Is established. In the case of a deviation from the long-run equilibrium, in the second regime, the Wagner's law is faster than the first regime, and, moreover.

There are 2 general approaches in statistics science to estimation: classical and Bayesian approaches. In addition to using the random sample information in Bayesian approach, the prior information of parameters is also used for estimation. In other words, in Bayesian approach, a combination of random sample information and prior information is used for deduction. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between the human development index and innovation in the elected developed countries based on Bayesian approach. In order to measure the innovation index in this study, the number of inventions and the number of inventors were used. In addition to innovation factor, the inflation rate and the health and education costs of the government were also considered as control variables. The statistical sample consisted of 22 elected developed countries in the time period 1996-2015. The analysis results showed that innovation and its indicators, as well as inflation and the health and education costs of the government play a significant role in explaining the human development index in Bayesian approach, which was based on theoretical foundations. According to the obtained results, it is suggested that in the future studies and different research areas, Bayesian approach is used and the results are compared with those of the classical approach.

The main purpose of this paper is to provide a framework for examining the relationship between internal and external imbalances and their trade-offs based on extending of monetary trilemma that analyzes monetary imbalances with real-sector economic imbalances.The empirical study of this paper examines the theoretical model presented in the context of the system of simultaneous equations for the Iranian economy (OLS and 2SLS). The results of the empirical studies and tests show the validity of the theory presented so that any kind of impulse on the variables of government spending policy, domestic interest rates (deposits and loans), exchange rates, domestic and foreign prices, and foreign interest rates, with other conditions remaining constant. The imbalance is created in the sector concerned, then equilibrium is provided by the transfer and compensation of the imbalance from the sector concerned to the other sectors and the general equilibrium in the economy is restored.

The combination of natural and unnatural resources exporting has a great importance for the economic improvement of countries,so that if natural resources exporting is replaced by unnatural resources exporting, amount of exporting will be unchanged, but production will reduce in unnatural resource exporting part.on the other hand if natural resources exporting income is spent for importing, some parts of unnatural resources exporting will be damaged. Because of topicʼsimporting, some parts of unnatural resources exporting will be damaged. Because of topicʼs importance, in this article the effects of natural resources exporting on unnatural resources exporting and importing is studied in 18 countries which have fuel, metals and minerals and in 2000-2016. As results show in those countries which their economic has a great dependency on natural resources exporting, the natural resources exporting will reduce unnatural resources exporting and will increase importing, although in countries with low incomes, in undeveloped countries and in countries with powerful government, the natural resources exporting will reduce the unnatural resources exporting,but in countries with powerful government the affect is less and natural resource exporting will reinforce unnatural resources exporting.

The problems of budgeting in Iran are more than one of the government policies, because of traditional processes in preparation, adoption and implementation of budgets. The purpose of this paper is to provide a model for the distribution and optimization of credit allocation of provincial capital assets between the provinces. For this purpose, game theory methods are used to calculate the cost and distribution of funds. The scope of this research is dedicated solely to the Management and Planning Organization of Iran. But the Management and Planning Organization of the provinces can use the results of the study to distribute budgets in a province's counties. It is also possible to extend this research by applying the required changes to other organizations and companies that question the issue of the distribution of funds.