فصلنامه راهبرد اقتصادی
پیاپی 20 (بهار 1396)

The literature on sentiments is relatively new. In this study, the effect of sentiments on the Iranian economy in the framework of presenting a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is investigated. Two models are considered for the Iranian economy with and without sentiments. Proposed model coefficients are calibrated and estimated using the quarterly data of Iran's economy from 2004 to 2015 and show how stochastic impulses affect key macroeconomic variables in the presence of sentiments. Also, for more adaptation of the model to the real world, and considering the importance and role of stickiness the effect of nominal variables on production, price stickiness is introduced to the model. In the following, we evaluate how macroeconomic variables respond to different shocks. The results of the impulse response functions show that the initial impact of all the shocks on output is positive but only the effect of the target inflation and monetary policy shocks is positive and the other shocks have a negative effect. These shocks also have different effects on other macroeconomic variables. Comparing the two models with and without sentiment reflect differences in the effectiveness of the two case.

Human development has been used as one of the most important indicators to measure countries' development in recent decades, and improving and improving the quality of human development will have a significant role in the economic development of a country. One way to increase human development is to improve and expand educational and health services. In this study, based on the Toda-Yamamatu causality relationship, we examine the relationship between educational spending and health with the Human Development Index and in order to obtain long-run coefficients of Johansen-Joselius method for the period 2002-2016 seasonally. The results of Toda-Yamamoto causality method showed that there is a two-way causal relationship between educational expenditure and health with human development index and also the results of Johansen-Joselius method showed that the effect of educational expenditure and health variables on human development index is positive.

Economic growth is the main aim of policy makers and economists. Interest rate is one of the effective factors such as expected inflation and… on economic growth. In this paper, we use from panel data model for period of 2004-2017 for 18 developing countries. Results reveal that bank's operations in these countries are not well. According to our results, Loan's rate has positive effect and deposit's rate has negative effect on economic growth in our countries in our period. Estimation results reveal that one percent increases in loan's rate is caused to 0.048 rises in economic growth and one percent rise in deposit's rate is caused to 0.23 decreases in economic growth in our sample.

One of the issues to be looked at from an interdisciplinary perspective is the phenomenon of economic corruption. In the present study, the question is whether a desirable culture (Islamic culture) can play a role in controlling and eliminating the corruptions of the economic relations of the community. In this research, analytical and library methods are used. The Hofstede model has been used to explain the desirable culture with respect to economic corruption, which in fact is considered to be a research innovation. For this purpose, the components of power distance, avoidance of uncertainty, collectivism-individualism, and short-term tendency in relation to economic corruption and within the framework of religious behavior are explained; The result of this research is that the realization of a desirable culture (Islamic culture) will have a significant effect on reducing corruption in the society. In addition to the economic and judicial confrontation with the phenomenon of corruption, cultural planning is necessary to promote Islamic beliefs and anti-corruption. The use of cultural instruments to fight corruption will leed to increased social trust and social capital and this measure will contribute to formation of people-besed econmy and consequently, it helps to strengthen macroeconomic indicators.

Based on the resource curse in resource-rich countries, not only the revenue from the sale of these resources have not led to more economic growth, but also have had a negative impact on the economy. Various theories have been presented about the resource curse. One of them is based on the institutional approach. Accordingly, the cause of the resource curse is related to institutional quality. In the present study, with the institutional analysis approach, the role of institutional quality in the resource curses in Iran is analyzed. Since most of the quantitative researches in the literature have not succeeded in identifying indicators for detecting the resource curse, the present study addresses this problem as well as to avoid the limitations of the usual regression models, The Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) has been used. The results show that institutional inefficiency in Iran, when connected with the abundance of gas and oil resources, exacerbates the resource curse.

Determining the sectors in which investments can stimulate the economy and lead to more economic growth has always been the subject of many economic planners due to the limited and scarce resources. These sections have the most forward and backward linkages with other sectors of the economy, which are referred to as key sections. The purpose of this paper is to identify the key sectors of the Iran's economy using a hypothetical elimination method in the first step. In the second step, it is examined whether these key sectors are capable of achieving endogeneity in the Iran's economy. For this purpose, the 99-part input-output table of 1390, the last table published by the Iranian Statistics Center, was aggregated using an ISIC classification method in a 19-part input-output table. Then, using the hypothetical elimination method, the key sectors of Iran's economy were identified. Then, according to the endogeneity strategy in the Moghavemati economy policies, the position and influence of these sectors on the endogeneity of the country's economy from the perspective of two indicators of employment and import dependency were examined. The results of this study showed that five sections of "industrial production", "mining", "transportation and warehousing", "building" and "agriculture, forestry and fishing" were also considered as key sectors of Iran's economy. In the current situation, only the "building" section has capable of achieving endogeneity in the Iran's economy and should therefore be recognized as the driving engine of the economy and in other key sectors for the realization of endogeneity, more efforts should be made to improve production procedures and the rate of employment in these sectors through internal capacities.