نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 12 (بهار 1398)

Scenario planning is a tool for dealing with environmental uncertainty. Since the 1950s, several scientific methods have been proposed for various categories, such as pastcasting, forecasting and backcasting, qualitative and quantitative, deductive and inductive, non- participatory and participatory, exploratory and normative, etc. The variety and Multiplicity of methods has made the users practically confused in choosing the right method and implementing it. The researcher, considering the first category, has tried with the scientific gurus in 10 methods as the target of the research due to the prevalence of forecasting scenario planning models in this category and the lack of a study to provide a comprehensive model in this regard. The importance of this research is to increase the ease of understanding and implementation of the steps, increase the quality and reliability of the results, and reduce the concern of experts to select the appropriate scenario planning scenario. Failure to do so will increase the user's mistakes in choosing the right model and over-simplifying or Prolongation the planning of scenario planning projects. The methodology of research is based on the structural paradigm, developmental orientation, qualitative type and its method, descriptive and case research that were carried out using the meta synthesis method. To test the model, a number of experts were selected by non-random sampling method, and by using the Delphi tool, interviews continued until theoretical saturation. The final model of the research was presented in the form of two general phases, four main stages and fourteen sub steps.

Unmanned aircraft (UAV) refers to flying devices remotely or by internal direct and control the autopilot. They can be different types of accessories such as cameras, sensors and communications equipment to carry these birds are able to perform operations such as tracking aerial imaging from the field, tracking ground targets, target aircraft, electronic warfare, suicide and so on. One of the drones that are placed in multi-rotor VTOL and has six degrees of freedom. In this paper, first, dynamic modeling and then environmental effects are calculated on the bird; the fuzzy control and its implementation for the quadrotor are described; further, the pilot's structure is dealt with, and the simulink is designed from the quadrotor and the pilot's bird; and, finally, using the aggressive algorithm The route is designed in two different ways, indicating the result of a shorter period of time and an increase in the accuracy of the operations; hence, it can be an interesting model for future drone drills

Since futures research provides an opportunity for researchers to study and assess the future conditions and features for decision-makers, it is considered a platform for development. Given that a native model of the future research process has not been presented in the AJA with the process approach, this research has sought to formulate it in the AJA, and indeed the main issue of the research is that the native model of the future study process in AJA is. This research is an applied and descriptive analytical research with a quantitative approach. In order to implement the research, firstly, by studying the literature and research background, the factors influencing futures studies in AJA were determined using content analysis method; then, to achieve the conceptual model of the research, the relationships between the identified factors using the Interpretative Structural Modeling Method (ISM) Has been. In conclusion, a native model study has been proposed for future study in AJA with a process approach.

For prospective strategies in the field of logistics, analysis of the internal environment (strengths and weaknesses) requires more recognition feature is logistics and prioritization. Currently, due to the emergence of new patterns of warfare and its impact on military organizations, especially in the field of logistic, the priorities of logistics have not been determined by science and practice, which is the main issue of this research. So identifying and explaining the characteristics and priorities according to the type and nature of future threats Logistics main objective of this research. This research is of type, applied-development and methodological, descriptive and survey type, and is carried out in combination (qualitative-quantitative). In this research, qualitative content analysis method and also paired comparison method have been used to prioritize logistic characteristics for future threats. The characteristics of logistic are based on the type and nature of future threats from four sections including the discourse of leader, backgrounds and research backgrounds, theoretical fundamentals and interviews with experts. After reviewing, grouping and classifying features in the form of four The following were the structural, organizational, equipment, and methodology. The top ten top ten logistic priorities were identified according to the type and nature of future threats. The priorities are as follows: follows: Agility,Flexibility, Faith and Commitment of Logistics Staff, Intelligent Command and Control System, Logistics Skills and Expertise, Native, Safe, and Sustainable FAVA Systems, Dynamic Command System, Prioritize Supply Effective Equipment and Weapons Axis, Focused design and decentralized implementation, Priority to providing intelligent equipment and weapons.

The ever-increasing global competition leads companies and industries to find new solutions for survival and market preservation. To this end, companies are trying to invest in innovative activities such as R&D projects and streamline their business and competition. Regarding the characteristics of future R&D projects, it is important to have access to methods that provide the success of these projects. R&D projects have been considered very little in terms of project management in technology-oriented companies. In order to implement the results of new research and to help resolve the problems in this field, it is necessary to identify and prioritize the factors affecting future R&D projects. The purpose of this research is applied and is a descriptive-survey method. Factors influencing future R&D projects in advanced technology industries have been extracted from the review of the literature and opinion of the aerospace industry experts and the approved questionnaires have been distributed in the expert community and the results have been verified using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equations with Smart-PLS software. In this study, eight main dimensions influencing future R&D projects in the aerospace advanced technology industry with 56 factors were identified and confirmed, which are important for all of them. All identified key factors have a significant impact on future R&D projects management capability in advanced aerospace industries.

Crisis prevention and containment first of all requires making effective decisions based on sound and structured information that is quickly and easily accessible to decision makers, so the more relevant, comprehensive and real-time information is made, the better decisions will be made. As a result, losses and losses from the crisis will be reduced. Therefore, this research is aimed at explaining the role of GIS in future crisis management. It is an applied research in terms of purpose and is a component of future research method. The population of the first phase of the study consisted of books, scientific texts, documents and articles related to the case study that were considered in all numbers. In the second phase, 9 experts and experts in the field of crisis management were selected by purposeful method. . In this research, using different environmental monitoring methods, different crisis management patterns were investigated and based on the rotational model, 12 indicators of this model were discussed in focal groups and with the focus group members considering the impact of this system in future crisis management. And they were prioritized. The research findings show that the most effective role of GIS decision systems is during crisis, then crisis start, pre crisis and after crisis which was explained in all 12 stages and indicators. Therefore, it was suggested that organizations Crisis management trustees, using GIS decision systems, manage the process of forecasting, preparing and managing the crisis at the time of occurrence, as well as the post-crisis action process