نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 38 (تابستان 1398)

Non-oil exports are one of the important requirements in the Iranian economy. In this regard, currency depreciation is one of the ways to achieve this goal. The purpose of the present study is to provide a new insight into the way the exchange rate influences the inflation of non-oil exports. For this purpose, a threshold vector autoregression model was used to study the non-linear issue of exchange rate fluctuation in 1376:2-1395:4. According to the results of the research, the exchange rate shocks is associated with a positive response to the inflation rate of non-oil exports goods. Nevertheless, the impact of the shock before and after the 0.8% seasonal inflation is different. So that if inflation of exported goods exceeds the threshold, it will have a more positive reaction to the exchange rate shock. This result can be attributed to the dependence of the production process of Exported goods on imported intermediate goods. Accordingly, it cannot be expected that creating international competitiveness of non-oil exports with currency depreciation.

The preferences of individuals towards risk are one of the most important economic variables and have a significant impact on economic decisions. Investment decisions, consumption, saving, purchases of insurance and future contracts are among the decisions where risk preferences play a key role. Considering the importance of risk preferences in the decision-making process, it is necessary to calculate an indicator that can show the state of risk-orientation in the whole economy. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the time series of the risk aversion parameter in Iran's economy based on quarterly data during the period of 2002-2017. For this purpose, Time- Varying parameter GARCH in mean models was used. Estimates of risk aversion in Iran's economy showed that this parameter was not constant in Iran's economy and fluctuated between 0.81 and 7.6 over the period under study. The results also showed that risk aversion is much lower in the boom period than the recession and has a countercyclical behavior.

Reducing financial constraints on border transactions between countries has led to an expansion of the liberalization and financial integration debate. In this study, the effect of the capital account liberalization on financial deepening as the last step of the financial liberalization has been analyzed in the selected group of developed and developing countries over the period 1990 -2017, which is emphasis on the criterion of capital account freedom provided by Chienne and Aito (2006) that are based on the main component of the binary variables of borderline financial constraints rather than the definition of capital account control. The experimental results show that in developing countries the positive impact of capital account liberalization on financial deepening (ratio of credits Granting to the private sector) is lower compared to developed countries due to the weak institutional quality and the lack of equilibrium in macroeconomics and the small role of the private sector in economic activities compared to developed countries,. Also, the results strongly emphasize the significant impact of financial infrastructure on financial deepening, especially in the international movement sector, as the level of initial capital account. Other significant results indicate a significant effect of the banking crisis, exchange rate and commercial freedom on financial deepening.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an empirical framework for assessing monetary policy shocks in two Iranian stock and housing markets in high and low volatility regimes. For this purpose, firstly, using Markov Switching models, both stock and housing markets are divided into two regimes and probabilities associated with each regime. It should be noted that the Markov Switching Modeling Approach is used to identify two distinct environments for each market where the environment is referred to as high fluctuations and low fluctuation environments. Then, using Probit models, the effects of monetary policy on the probability of housing and stock markets in a regime with high fluctuations are investigated in the next step. For this purpose, the monthly data on money base, the stock market and housing stock returns, inflation rates and dollar return during the period of 2010-2016 were used. The results show that money base and higher inflation rates will keep stock and housing stock in a highly volatile regime. The rise in dollar yields also reduces the probability of the two above-mentioned markets fluctuating in the regime. The findings are very useful for policy makers, because the studies conducted in this paper provide a degree of predictive power that can be used in monetary policy decisions.

A household as a fundamental institution in each society and in the national economy, is labor supplier to firms in factors of production market and, on the other hand, it is a consumer of the goods and services in those markets.Also, the household is a producer of many goods and services that are called housekeeping products and are caused by housework. Generally, housework is carried out in three ways: household self-consumption, supply of the product to the market for gaining income, and housekeeping. This study following to estimate the economic value of the housekeeping which is the third part of housework. Since, every household needs for own life to the minimum time and consumption of housekeeping products, in this research, the Cobb- Douglas production function is used with considering Stone - Geary approach. According to the research findings, the share of the housekeeping economic value of national income is calculated equal to %4, in 2015. While, in the same year, the shares of activities such as Agriculture- horticulture, and Animal husbandry were 8.33 and 5.57 percent of national income, respectively.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the welfare status of households in northern Khorasan province and compare it with the average welfare of households in the whole country of Iran. Regarding the number of support organizations in Iran such as subsidies targeting organization, welfare organization, social security organization, Imam Khomeini Relief Committee and etc. to implement supportive policies to improve the welfare of households, there is a need for a quantitative index to be able to the use of that benchmark applied to supportive policies. In this article, using household income and expenditure data of the Statistics Center of Iran during the period of 2005-2014, the household welfare status has been analyzed using Engel welfare Index. With regard to the impact of some demographic variables of households, the Engel curve is estimated. The level of well-being of all households in Iran has decreased over the period. And also the level of welfare of households in the northern Khorasan province was lower than the whole country during the period under consideration. In general, rural households have a lower level of welfare than urban households. Therefore, according to the results of this study, governments and supportive organizations should consider the variables that affect the welfare state of households such as total expenditure households, household size, and other important demographic variables.

The agricultural sector is currently the largest water consumer in the country due to population growth and the need for food supply. Therefore, resource management and water consumption in agriculture, on the one hand, are important due to the shortage of water and soil resources and, on the other hand, the surplus of food demand. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to use the virtual water trade approach to determine the water footprint of the country in the agricultural sector. For this purpose, the technical-base indicators have been used to measure the virtual water consumption of products. In this study, special water consumption and virtual water trade of 36 crops and garden products for the period of 2001-15 have been calculated. According to the results, Iran is the net importer of "virtual water" during the period examined. Through the trade in agricultural products, exports amounted to 4.3 billion cubic meters per year and 15.8 billion cubic meters of "virtual water" imports. Among the studied crops and garden products, legumes and dried fruits based on their special water consumption are high-consumption products. The results have provided information that can be used to optimize the combination of agricultural products in order to maintain water resources and provide food security.

The promotion of total factor productivity is one of the economic goals, and the recognition of the factors influencing it has always been emphasized by economists. Entrepreneurship can be mentioned as one of the most important factors affecting the promotion of total factor productivity. Considering the importance of this issue, the present study assesment the role of entrepreneurship on total factor productivity in three groups of countries Factor-oriented (9 countries, including Iran), efficiency- oriented (10 countries) and innovation-oriented (16 countries) using generalized moment of method (GMM) during the period of 2008-2015. The results of the study indicate that the positive and significant impact of the entrepreneurship index and each of the five main indices (nascent entrepreneurial, early-stage entrepreneurial, new business owners, established business owners and exit from business) on the total factor productivity in the studied countries. The index coefficient of nascent entrepreneurial in factor-oriented countries is greater than efficiency- oriented and innovation-oriented countries. Also, the impact of openness, information communication and technology, education, and capital intensity were examined as controlling variables in the model among these, the effect of openness on total factor productivity in factor-oriented countries is meaningless, and in the efficiency- oriented and innovation- oriented countries is positive and meaningful, the effect education of positive and meaningful, the effect of capital intensity is positive and meaningful, and the effect of information and communication technology in the factor-oriented and innovation- oriented countries is negative and meaningless and in the efficiency- oriented countries group is positive and meaningful.