مجله بررسی مسائل اقتصاد ایران
سال پنجم شماره 2 (پیاپی 10، پاییز و زمستان 1397)

The oil revenues and the reliance of oil-rich societies on this source of income, along with volatility of oil price, have had many undesirable and harmful economic effects. In recent decades, the major sources of revenue for the government in iran have been revenues from oil sales. Therefore, volatility of oil price and the change in its sales value always cause volatility in budget and affect the budget deficit. Although little and unsustainable budget deficit can have a positive effect on the activation of the economy, a high and sustained budget deficit will unfavorable effects on economic performance. Using of seasonal data over the period of 1991:2-2016:1, this study investigates the effectof oil revenues on iran's budget deficit. To do so, the research model has been estimated in different deciles using a Ordinary Least Squares regression and Quantile regression. The results indicate that, as oil revenues rises, the budget deficit is increased. On the other hand, there is a non-linear relationship between oil revenues and budget deficits, because as the results of the research show, in primary and last deciles, the effect of oil revenues on the deficit is more than on intermediate deciles.with the implementation of resampling (Bootstrap) as the results estimation quantile regression of the model was confirmed.

Low rate of unemployment was one of the goals of the Iran’s development plans, but the Iranian economy has experienced a high rate of unemployment after the 1979 revolution. The present paper examines the changes of employment and unemployment in the Iranian economy using the decomposition method of logarithmic mean Divisia (LMD) over the period 2005-2016. Decomposition of the net changes of employment indicated that the economic growth was the main driver of employment, although the higher quantity of economic growth does not necessarily lead to an increase in employment (such as the fourth development plan). The decomposition of unemployment shown that the effect of increasing the active population on the labor market has been postponed through encouraging young people to attend university during the fourth development plan. However, in the fifth development plan, the demographic changes is offset by the lower unemployment rate so that number of unemployment maintain roughly constant. The findings indicate the importance of economic growth policies and also educational policies.

Profitability is one of the important goals of a bank or a financial institution. So it is necessary to identify effective factors in profitability of bank and the way they influence a financial institution. The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of Business cycle on state and private banks profit in Iran during 2005 to 2017. Therefore, the effect of macro variables variations and Business cycle on profits of 22 state and private banks is modeled and analyzed by using GMM method. The findings indicate that there is a positive and significant correlation between investment of private sector and business cycles and banks’ profits, while there is a negative correlation between investment of public sector and banks’ profits. Moreover, results show that the inflation rate does not have negative and significant relation with banks’ profits. At last Business cycles have significant and positive relation with bank’s profit.

dentifying Tehran's housing market plays an important role in policing the country's urban housing sector and helping timely and effective decision-making. This study analyzes the market and forecasts of housing prices up to 1405 in Tehran using the dynamic system method. In this study, a causal model is first developed to study the dynamics of Tehran housing and then a Stock-flow model is designed to simulate a causal model. The model results predict an increase in housing prices by exponential growth pattern up to 1405. As land prices rise, housing prices rise exponentially. Hous-ing prices also follow capital demand and rise exponentially. By controlling capital de-mand for housing, one can reduce fluctuations in housing demand, which reduce hous-ing prices. After validating the model, demand and supply scenarios are designed

Identifying the determinants of government debt size - due to its impact on other macroeconomic variables - has particular importance in any economy that Iranian economy cannot excluded from this principle. Accordingly, this study investigates the determinants of government debt size using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in Iran during 1973-2017. The results show that budget deficit size and economic growth has a significant and tangible effect on the size of government debt, so that this effect was positive for budget deficit size and negative for economic growth. In addition, the findings show that variables of inflation, oil price fluctuations, bank interest rate and political instability indicators (number of changes of ministers in one year and number of legislative elections held in one year) had not a significant effect on government debt size. Therefore, it is conceivable that government debt is rooted in deficits that emerged from structural imperfection and institutional rigidity in Iran.

The growth of liquidity has been mentioned as one of the factors of the occurrence of the business cycle. Considering the fact that liquidity in the Iran economy has grown significantly during the last decade, in this research, the effect of liquidity growth on the Iranian economy was studied during the period of 1353 to 1396 by Johansen-Juselius co-integration method. The results of the research show that in the Iranian economy, variables such as Oil price fluctuations, private sector investment, and the growth of liquidity are among the main factors in the formation of business cycles in Iran's economy. Also, the results of the research indicate that in the long run, the growth of liquidity has a negative and significant effect on business cycles, but private sector investment and negative fluctuations of oil prices have a positive effect on it.