فهرست مطالب

  • پیاپی 109 (پاییز 1398)
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1398/07/01
  • تعداد عناوین: 10
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  • ناصر مشهدی*، سادات فیض نیا، صغری عبدی صفحات 389-402

    طی شصت سال گذشته، تجمعی از تپه‏‏ های ماسه‏‏ای (ارگErg) با مساحت حدود 600 هکتار در رضاآباد خارتوران ایجاد شده است. هدف از این تحقیق تفسیر منبع و منشا ماسه بر پایه ویژگی‏های مورفولوژی تپه‏های ماسه‏‏ای و‏‏ دانه‏بندی و ‏‏کانی‏‏شناسی رسوبات بادی است. تفسیر تصاویر ماهواره نشان داد که ارگ رضاآباد دارای تپه ‏‏های هلالی ‏شکل ابتدایی شامل اشکال پیش‏بارخانی، تپه‏‏ های بارخانی، و بارخانوئید با کشیدگی شمال‏- جنوب است. پس می‏توان نتیجه گرفت که وزش باد شکل‏‏دهنده شمالی- جنوبی است. آنالیز دانه ‏‏بندی با روش متداول الک خشک و ‏‏کانی‏‏شناسی به‏وسیله میکروسکوپ بینوکولر مطالعه شد. نتایج نشان داد که کشیدگی و فرم تپه‏‏ ها از الگوی گل ‏‏طوفان پیروی می‏‏کند. در نتیجه، باد قوی شمالی مهم‏ترین باد در تامین ماسه و توسعه تپه‏‏ های ماسه‏‏ای است. آنالیزهای آماری توزیع اندازه دانه نشان داد که میانگین و میانه قطر اندازه ذرات 205 میکرون هستند که می‏توان براساس رابطه بین اندازه دانه و مسافت طی‏شده استدلال کرد که تغییرات مکانی این ذرات 20 تا 50 کیلومتر از منابع ماسه است. وجود کلسیت و ماسه‏ سنگ کوارتزی در نمونه‏‏ های رسوب نشان می‏دهد که واحدهای سنگی آهک مارنی و مارن و کنگلومرای آتش‏فشانی منشا‏یی برای رسوبات بادی است.

    کلیدواژگان: ارگ، پیش‏بارخانی، ‏‏ تپه ماسه‏ای، دانه‏بندی، رسوبات بادی
  • بهمن شفیعی، حمید برقی*، یوسف قنبری صفحات 403-416

    هدف از پژوهش حاضر تحلیل عوامل موثر بر مدیریت خشک‏سالی در نواحی روستایی است که به‏ صورت موردی در مناطق روستایی شهرستان اسلام‏آباد غرب انجام شده است. جامعه آماری پژوهش را کلیه خانوارهای ساکن بالای بیست خانوار (به‏دلیل داشتن زمین‏های کشاورزی و شرایط توپوگرافی) در هفت دهستان تشکیل می‏دهد. با استفاده از فرمول کوکران، 374 نفر از آنان واقع در 21 روستا در هر دهستان 3 روستا به‏دلیل ساختار محیطی به‏ عنوان نمونه مطالعه شده‏اند. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‏ها از روش تحلیل عاملی تاییدی در محیط نرم‏افزار Spss 22 و Smart-Pls و برای ارزیابی وضعیت منطقه از نظر شدت خشک‏سالی از شاخص Spi استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان داد که ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی، زیست‏محیطی، و نهادی‏- زیربنایی به‏ترتیب با ضرایب مسیر 0.168، 0.351، 0.251، و 0.381 به‏طور مستقیم مدیریت خشک‏سالی را تبیین می‏کنند. بنابراین، باید در برنامه ‏ریزی‏های مدیریت خشک‏سالی، با توجه به نتایج تبیین الگوی کمی پژوهش، هر چهار شاخص هم‏زمان در روستاهای مورد مطالعه برای بهبود وضعیت و مدیریت خشک‏سالی ارتقا یابند.

    کلیدواژگان: اخص Spi، شهرستان اسلام‏آباد غرب، مدل‏سازی معادلات ساختاری، مدیریت خشک‏‏سالی، نواحی روستایی
  • علی شهریار*، کاظم طاهری نژاد صفحات 417-430

    اقلیم خشک و توسعه انواع چاله‏ های زمین ‏ساختی سبب گسترش ریگزارهای مختلف در ایران مرکزی شده است که در این زمینه می‏توان به ریگ صادق‏ آباد در شمال غرب بافق اشاره کرد. برای کشف علت استقرار این پهنه ماسه‏ای، فاکتورهایی از قبیل تکتونیک، مورفولوژی تپه‏ های ماسه‏ای، توپوگرافی، سطح آب‏های زیرزمینی، سامانه فشار جوی و رژیم باد با استفاده از داده‏هایی ‏چون نقشه ‏های زمین ‏شناسی و داده‏ه ای باد ایستگاه سینوپتیک بافق ارزیابی شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‏دهد که در طول سال وزش باد از جهات مختلفی برخوردار است؛ به ‏طوری‏که تحت تاثیر این امر مورفولوژی غالب ریگ صادق‏آباد به‏صورت تپه‏های ماسه‏ای هرمی ظاهر شده است که این نوع مورفولوژی بیابانی خود نشانه ‏ای از تنوع جهت بادهای حاکم بر آن منطقه و تمرکز ماسه های روان است. به‏طورکلی، علاوه‏بر نقش رژیم بادی حاکم بر منطقه، بالابودن سطح آب‏های زیرزمینی تحت تاثیر فعالیت گسل‏ها در مجاور ریگ صادق‏آباد بافق نیز در استقرار و تمرکز این توده ماسه‏ای در پلایای درانجیر موثر است؛ به ‏گونه ‏ای‏ که سطح ایستابی آب‏های زیرزمینی در مجاور ریگ صادق‏آباد از عمق کمتری نسبت به مناطق مجاور برخوردار است.

    کلیدواژگان: تپه‏ ماسه‏ای، ریگ صادق‏آباد- بافق، شاخص همگنی وزش باد، مکان‏گزینی ریگزار
  • کمیل عبدی، سعید کامیابی*، محمدرضا زند مقدم صفحات 431-445

    تغییرات آب و هوایی با تاثیرگذاری در چرخه هیدرولوژیکی و افزایش شهرنشینی با افزایش سطوح نفوذناپذیر احتمال وقوع حوادث سیل را افزایش داده‏اند. در این تحقیق با رویکردی یک‏پارچه، آسیب‏پذیری، تاب‏آوری، و ریسک‏پذیری فضایی شهر ساری در مقیاس بلوک‏های شهری در برابر سیلاب  ارزیابی شده است. در این تحقیق برای نیل به هدف نخست شاخص‏ های ارزیابی آسیب ‏پذیری و تاب‏ آوری تعیین و محاسبه شد. سپس، با استفاده از مدل‏سازی سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS) و مدل‏های تصمیم گیری چندمعیاره (MCDM) توزیع فضایی آن‏ها به‏دست آمد. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که بیش از 600 هکتار از مناطق شهر ساری پتانسیل آسیب‏پذیری بالا و بسیار بالا را دارد. در مقابل، بیش از 800 هکتار از مساحت شهر ساری دارای تاب‏آوری بالا و بسیار بالاست. بااین‏حال، با ادغام نقشه ‏های آسیب‏ پذیری و تاب ‏آوری، مشخص شد که حدود 600 هکتار از وسعت شهر ساری دارای ریسک ‏پذیری بالا و بسیار بالا در برابر سیل ‏است. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد که بلوک‏های شهری در جنوب شهر ساری بیشترین ریسک‏پذیری نسبت به سیلاب را دارند.

    کلیدواژگان: آسیب‏پ ذیری، تاب‏ آوری، ریسک ‏پذیری، ساری، سیلاب
  • الهام قاسمی فر، منوچهر فرج زاده اصل*، یوسف قویدل رحیمی، عباسعلی علی اکبری بیدختی صفحات 447-468

    از داده های سنجنده AVHRR برای آشکارسازی ناحیه‏ای ابر در دو منطقه ایران با ویژگی های متفاوت جغرافیایی و جوی به‏ منظور مقایسه با داده‏ های ماسک ابر مادیس (MOD35) استفاده شده است. بدین منظور، پنج تاریخ دارای بالاترین و پایین ‏ترین آنومالی ابرناکی طی بازه زمانی 2001-2015 متناسب با گذر ماهواره ‏های ترا و نوآ انتخاب شد. پنج آزمون آستانه‏ گذاری طیفی مختلف استفاده شد. ابتدا پس از تشخیص ‏پیکسل‏ های برفی، این ‏پیکسل ‏ها از ادامه کار حذف شدند. سپس، از سه آزمون به‏ منظور تشخیص ‏پیکسل ‏های ابرناک بهره برده شد؛ این آزمون‏ ها عبارت است از: آزمون بازتاب کانال مرئی؛ آزمون نسبت بازتاب مادون قرمز نزدیک/ مرئی؛ و آزمون دمای درخشندگی جو بدون ابر. آزمون آخر نشان داد، طی تاریخ‏های مورد بررسی، با توجه به دمای سطحی، دمای درخشندگی قابل تقسیم به دو طبقه اصلی است. هنگامی که دمای سطحی بیشتر از 5 درجه ‏سانتی‏گراد است، جو صاف به‏ طور متوسط 1 درجه ‏سانتی‏گراد سردتر از جو ابری است و برعکس؛ هنگامی که دمای سطحی کمتر از 5 درجه ‏‏سانتی‏گراد باشد، جو صاف به‏ طور متوسط 6 درجه ‏سانتی‏گراد گرم‏تر است. نتایج حاصل از ‏صحت ‏سنجی این الگوریتم با ارزیابی داده‏ه ای ایستگاهی و محصول ماسک ابر سنجنده مادیس دقت بالای 90درصد را نیز در برخی از تاریخ ‏ها آشکار کرد.

    کلیدواژگان: دمای درخشندگی جو بدون ابر، ماسک ابر ناحیه ‏ای، مدل انتقال تابش، AVHRR، MOD35
  • یعقوب دین پژوه*، معصومه فروغی صفحات 469-482

    در این پژوهش اثرهای مستقیم و غیرمستقیم پارامترهای هواشناسی بر روی ET0 در استان آذربایجان شرقی با استفاده از تجزیه علیت بررسی شده است. برای برآورد ET0، از فرمول فائو- پنمن مانتیث استفاده شد. مهم‏ترین پارامترهای هواشناسی موثر بر ET0، با استفاده از رگرسیون گام به گام شناسایی، به‏منظور ارزیابی عملکرد مدل رگرسیونی، از آماره‏های MAPE، R2، RMSE، و MAE استفاده شد و اثرهای مستقیم و غیر‏مستقیم هر یک از پارامتر بر ET0 با استفاده از تجزیه علیت محاسبه شد. مقدار MAPE مابین 43/0 و 87/0، R2 مابین 97/0 و 99/0، RMSE مابین 042/0 و 092/0، و MAE مابین 033/0 و 057/0 به‏دست آمد. سرعت باد در ایستگاه‏های مورد مطالعه (به‏جز ایستگاه اهر) همبستگی معنی‏داری با ET0 نشان داد. با توجه به نتایج تجزیه علیت، بیشترین مقدار اثر مستقیم پارامترهای هواشناسی بر ET0 در همه ایستگاه‏ها به‏ جز اهر متعلق به سرعت باد بود که مقدار آن برای تبریز 637/0، جلفا 787/0، سهند 877/0، سراب، 578/0، مراغه، 850/0، و میانه 780/0 است و در ایستگاه اهر متعلق به پارامتر Tmax معادل 398/0 بود. کمترین مقدار اثر مستقیم پارامترهای هواشناسی بر ET0 در منطقه مورد مطالعه متعلق به حداقل درجه حرارت هوا بوده است.

    کلیدواژگان: پارامترهای هواشناسی، تبخیر- تعرق گیاه مرجع، تجزیه علیت، رگرسیون گام به گام
  • محمد امین پرندین، حسن ذوالفقاری*، امان الله فتح نیا صفحات 483-496

    آب باران در شهرهای ایران عمدتا به رواناب یا سیلاب تبدیل می شود و از طریق کانال‏های آبی یا شبکه فاضلاب از سطح شهر خارج می‏شود. استحصال آب باران از نظر حفاظت و مدیریت منابع آبی و از جنبه اقتصادی اهمیت فراوانی دارد. این پژوهش با هدف تعیین میزان آب‏ باران قابل استحصال از پشت ‏بام‏ های شهر کرمانشاه برای تامین نیاز آبی‏ فضاهای سبز شهری انجام گرفت. نخست، با استفاده از تصویر ماهواره‏ای، مساحت بام‏های شهر کرمانشاه استخراج شد. براساس آمار بارش ایستگاه سینوپتیک کرمانشاه (1330 تا 1395)، حجم آب ‏باران قابل استحصال از سطوح بام‏ها برای مناطق هشت گانه شهرداری کرمانشاه محاسبه شد. داده‏های مساحت و نیاز آبی فضاهای سبز مناطق شهرداری از سازمان پارک ها و فضای سبز کرمانشاه دریافت شد. مکان‏ های مستعد برای ذخیره آب ‏باران در سطح شهر با استفاده از مدل WLC تعیین شد. نتایج نشان می‏دهد از مجموع 10620000 متر مکعب نیاز آبی سالانه فضاهای سبز شهری کرمانشاه حدود 6200000 متر مکعب یا حدود 4/58درصد آن از طریق استحصال آب‏ باران از سطح بام های شهر تامین شدنی است. همچنین، با توجه به معیارهای مختلف محیطی، حدود 42000 متر مربع از اراضی داخل و حاشیه شهر کرمانشاه برای احداث مخازن آب‏ باران مناسب ‏تر تشخیص داده شد که اغلب در منطقه 5 شهرداری کرمانشاه واقع شده است.

    کلیدواژگان: استحصال آب باران، سطح بام، فضای سبز شهری، کرمانشاه، نیاز آبی
  • مهرداد نصراصفهانی، حجت الله یزدان پناه* صفحات 497-512

    امروزه یکی از بزرگ‏ترین چالش‏ها در کشاورزی بررسی اثر عوامل آب و هوایی بر محصولات کشاورزی است. هدف از این تحقیق پیش‏ آگاهی‏ رخداد سرمازدگی باغات بادام در منطقه نجف ‏آباد ‏است. با توجه به آمار بلندمدت فنولوژی درختان بادام در منطقه نجف‏آباد، تاریخ‏های گل‏دهی استخراج و براساس تاریخ‏های ژولیوسی محاسبه شد. سپس، جدول شاخص ‏های حرارتی ترسیم شد. از میان پارامترهای موجود، به ‏ترتیب تعداد روزهای بالاتر از دمای میانگین‏، مجموع واحدهای حرارتی بیشتر از صفر (GDD>0)، و تعداد روزهای پایین‏تر از دمای میانگین ‏بیشترین همبستگی مستقیم معنی ‏داری (P-value <0.01) را با تاریخ گل‏ دهی نشان داد که به ‏ترتیب معادل 945/0، 938/0، و 921/0 بود. معادلات رگرسیون چندمتغیره خطی و شبکه عصبی مصنوعی نیز بین گل‏دهی و شاخص‏های حرارتی بررسی شد؛ ضریب همبستگی این معادلات به‏ ترتیب 998/0 و 995/0 ملاحظه شد. سپس، راست ‏آزمایی خروجی دمای روزانه مدل ‏WRF در منطقه مورد مطالعه انجام و مشخص شد که پیش‏بینی دمای مدل از لحاظ آماری قابل قبول است. براساس نتایج، با تلفیق دو مدل فنولوژی و پیش‏بینی دما به ‏وسیله مدل WRF می‏توان هشدار سریع 48ساعته رخداد سرمازدگی در باغات منطقه را با دقت کافی انجام داد.

    کلیدواژگان: پیش‏ بینی دما، تاریخ گل‏دهی، مدلWRF، مدل فنولوژی
  • علی مهرابی* صفحات 513-528

    مطالعه رفتار ساختار‏های نمکی رخنمون‏یافته در سطح زمین و ارتباط آن با عوامل محیطی می‏تواند در شناخت هرچه بیشتر این ساختارها و اثرهای زیست‏محیطی آن‏ها موثر باشد. گنبد‏های نمکی جنوب ایران از جمله گنبد نمکی شاه‏غیب لارستان یکی از بزرگ‏ترین ساختار‏های نمکی رخنمون‏یافته است که در راستای جنبش‏شناسی نمک و تعیین ارتباط احتمالی آن با تغییرات آب و هوایی در این پژوهش از آن استفاده شده است. تغییر شکل‏های رخداده بر روی این گنبد نمکی، با استفاده از روش تداخل‏سنجی سری زمانی تصاویر راداری  ASARمربوط به سال‏های 2003 تا 2008 بررسی و اندازه‏گیری شد. نتایج به‏دست‏آمده، ضمن اینکه بیانگر فعال‏بودن این گنبد نمکی است، به‏ منظور تعیین ارتباط بین جابه‏ جایی ‏های رخداده با شرایط آب و هوایی متفاوت، نقشه‏های جابه‏ جایی مقطعی تهیه و با داده‏ های دما و بارش متناظر با دوره‏های یادشده مقایسه شد. براساس نتایج، بین میزان جابه‏ جایی و دمای متوسط ارتباط مستقیمی وجود دارد؛ به‏طوری‏که با افزایش دما میزان بالاآمدگی سطح نمک افزایش می‏یابد و میزان فرونشست نیز کاهش می‏یابد. بنابراین، می‏توان تا حدودی تغییرات ثانویه نمک بعد از رخنمون‏یافتن گنبد نمکی بر روی زمین را متاثر از شرایط آب و هوایی به‏ ویژه دما دانست.

    کلیدواژگان: جابه‏ جایی نمک، شرایط آب و هوایی، تداخل‏ سنجی راداری، گنبدنمکی، لارستان
  • بهروز سبحانی*، مینو احمدیان، سعید جهان بخش اصل صفحات 529-544

    هدف از پژوهش حاضر بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر نیاز آبی و طول فصل رشد درخت سیب است. بدین منظور، از آمار پایگاه ECMWF برای داده‏های مشاهداتی دو ایستگاه سمیرم و ارومیه طی بازه زمانی بیست ‏ساله (1996-2016) استفاده شد. برای بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم از داده‏های روزانه ریزگردانی دینامیک پروژه CORDEX برای خروجی مدل ICHEC-EC-EARTH تحت دو خط سیر 5/4 و 5/8 واداشت تابشی (RCP) برای بازه زمانی (2017-2037) بهره گرفته شد. به ‏‏منظور کاهش خطاهای موجود در برآوردهای مدل، عمل پس‏ پردازش روی ‏داده‏های برآوردشده انجام گرفت. سپس، تبخیر- تعرق پتانسیل به روش پنمن مانتیث فائو و مراحل رشد با استفاده از شاخص درجه- روز محاسبه شد و با استفاده از آزمون ناپارامتریک من- کندال و شیب سن در محدوده اطمینان 95درصد روندها بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد که در هر دو ایستگاه روند تبخیر- تعرق در طول فصل رشد رو به افزایش است. بیشترین میزان تبخیر و نیاز آبی در داده‏ های مشاهداتی و برآوردشده برای دوره رشد میوه رخ‏ داده است. تامین زودتر نیاز حرارتی موجب کاهش طول دوره رشد درخت سیب شده است. از طرفی، افزایش تبخیر و بالارفتن میزان درجه‏- روزهای رشد باعث افزایش نیاز آبی درخت سیب خواهد شد.

    کلیدواژگان: درخت سیب، تبخیر- تعرق، نیاز آبی، طول رشد، روش پنمن مانتیث فائو
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  • Bahman Shafie, Hamid Barghi *, Yusef Ghanbari Pages 403-416
    INTRODUCTION

     The purpose of this study was to analyze the status of effective factors on drought management in rural areas, which was done in rural areas of Eslamabad Gharb. The statistical population of the study consists of all households of over 20 households (due to agricultural land and topographical conditions) in seven rural districts. Using the Cochran formula, 374 of them, located in 21 villages, in each village, 3 villages, have been studied as an example due to the environmental structure. To analyze the data, the confirmatory factor analysis method was used in the Spss 22 and Smart-Pls software environment, and the Spi index was used for assessing the situation in the region for drought severity. Economic dimension has an impact on drought management, with a value of 17,642 T, and the path coefficient between these two is 0.251. The social dimension, with a value of T 23.999, and a path coefficient of 0.351, an environmental dimension, with a value of 23.449, and a path coefficient of 0.168, an institutional dimension-substructure, with a value of 32.421 T and a path coefficient of 0.381, Direct management of drought. Accordingly, the institutional-infrastructural dimension, the most impact, and economic dimension, has the least effect. In general, in order to manage drought in rural areas in Eslamabad Gharb, in planning, priority should be given to effective factors in drought management, especially social factors. Accordingly, it should first be facilitated by the capacity of the region, with regard to the existing rural population, in the context of universal participation, as well as the prevention of migration, by resorting to professionals and instructors.In recent years, due to the successive droughts, many villages have suffered a slight blue crisis, and have certainly caused adverse effects on their social, economic and environmental conditions, and the fundamental problem has occurred when Paying attention to this drought, the authorities and authorities, have not discussed the effects of this drought on the dimensions of the lives of villagers, and have gone through the issue with formalities, and have taken action against this dysfunctional and cross-sectional measures. Undoubtedly, the first step, in order to adequately deal with the drought and its consequences, is to understand and understand the phenomenon and its effects in different dimensions in order to be able to draw up effective strategies and strategies in this regard. And he worked. On this basis, it is necessary first of all, based on a scientific and logical research, to investigate the effects of this bite on different dimensions of life, and then on the basis of it, to plan, the present study is in this regard. So, the present research seeks to answer the following question: How much is the economic, social, environmental and institutional-physical effects on drought management in the rural areas studied? The life of the rural community, among the three existing human societies in Iran, due to drought-induced crises, has had many destructive effects in rural life, and faces them with many challenges, and has had a major impact on the economy and its livelihoods, so that Past strategies for managing droughts in rural areas have not been so successful and have not been able to resolve issues such as water scarcity, and easing rangelands and migration. Kermanshah province is the sixth province of the country due to drought problems. As a result of recent droughts, about 550 villages in the province suffered from a mild crisis, and the damages caused to the province due to drought and frost in 2008 exceeded 800 billion USD It was announced.

    Materials and methods

    The statistical population of the study consists of all households of more than 20 households in seven rural districts. Using the Cochran formula, 374 of them (located in 21 villages), for example, have been studied. To analyze the data, confirmatory factor analysis method was used in SPSS 22 and Smart-Pls software.

    Results and discussion

    The economical dimension of drought management, with a 17,642 coefficient, indicates the significance of economic dimension to drought management, and the path coefficient between these two is 0.251. Also, the social dimension, with the value of 23.999, the path coefficient 0.351, the environmental dimension, with the value of 23.449, the path coefficient 0.168, and the institutional-institutional subfield, with the value of 32.421, the path coefficient of 0.381, directly explained the drought management they do. 

    CONCLUSIONS

    In general, in the management of drought, in rural areas of Islamabad, West, planning should prioritize factors affecting drought management, especially social factors. Accordingly, first, government measures should be taken to create the technical, institutional and service infrastructure in the region, and then, based on the capacity of the region, with regard to the prestigious rural population, in the direction of universal participation, as well as the prevention of migration, basic measures, the face Take up. Key Words: Drought Management, Rural Areas, Islamabad, West, Modeling of Structural Equations.

    Keywords: Drought management, Rural Areas, Eslamabad Gharb, SPI Index, Structural Equation Modeling
  • Ali Shahriar *, Kazem Taherinejad Javazm Pages 417-430
    Introduction

    Wind erosion is one of the important aspects of land erosion in arid and semi-arid regions. Wind erosion is known as the dominant erosion in these areas and 36 percent of the land surface is arid and semi-arid. Most of these surfaces are almost dry and lack vegetation (Coppinger and et al, 1991). More than 66% of Iran’s area are covered with dry and semi-arid lands, due to lack of moisture and reduced vegetation, there is wind erosion, so that there are about 13 million hectares of land are covered with Sand dunes (Ahmadi, 2001). The accumulation of sand is controlled by various factors, such as the amount of sand, sedimentation rate, wind direction, wind speed and obstacles in the sand movement direction (Moosavi Harami, 2010). Topography is not only known as an effective factor in the formation and density of sand dunes but also indirectly affects the morphology of sand dunes as well as its impact on the climate of the area. In Iran, as a country with a dry climate, due to the dispersion of different sand dunes, various studies conducted in connection with the Ergs establishment. Among these studies, Yamani research (2002) in the area of Kashan Band-Rig and the role of local low-pressure cell in the establishment of this Sandy collection and researches of Maghsoudi, Yamani, Khoshk-Akhlagh and Shahriar (2013) studied the dispersal of four ergs, Khartooran, Chah Jam, Sargardan and Rige –jen in dashte- Kavir Desert.

    Materials and Methods

    Daranjir graben is located in the southeast of Yazd Province and extended from Kharanagh to Bafgh. Sadegh Abad Rig inside Dranjir, is located in the 15km northwest of Bafq city. Tectonic properties and position of faults by studying geological maps and studying the status of underground water with field observations and depth of groundwater illustrated the role of underground water in the establishment of Sand dunes. The region's DEM is also used to determine the topographic position and study the role of topography in formation Daranjir Basin. On the other hand, due to the importance of wind in the transfer and density of the Sandy masses, a study of the region's wind regime was carried out using Wrplot and Sand Rose Graph software using Bafq synoptic station, wind rose and Sand rose respectively. Since recognizing the type of morphology of the sand dunes can be a sign of the deposition or displacement of the Sand dunes, it can be seen from the study of the direction of flooding in different periods of time that the dominant morphology of the sand dunes is detected in a field. These studies are about the causes of the wide use of sand mounds Made Also, in order to determine the role of convergence conditions of local winds in Sadegh Abad Bafgh Rig, using the dynamic data of barley in 2016 in IDV 5.0 software, the conditions of convergence of the prevailing surface winds on the construction of the hollow were noted and its effect on the studied peat was investigated. 3.

    Results and discussion

    With regard to the role of wind regime and tectonics in the establishment of sand dunes, it can be said that the results and research findings are about wind and tectonic. The results of study about atmospheric pressure systems, the wind rose and Sand rose drawings show that due to the low-pressure system, the prevailing winds and the transport of sand from different paths are carried out throughout the year. The study of the tectonic conditions of the Darjeer also indicates that these tectonic conditions, have an effect on the groundwater and fault activity and have contributed to the creation of local bays and highlands to the desert in Darjeer. on the other hand, with the ascension of groundwater Adjacent to the earth's surface and increasing the degree of soil moisture, has been effective in stabilizing sand dune and development of Sadeq Abad Bagh Rig. 4.

    Conclusion

    In this study, the role of dominant wind regime and tectonics in the establishment Rig of Sadegh Abad Bafgh, the tectonic conditions affecting on topographic situation of the flat-hollow daranjir and its adjacent peaks of mountains also affect the wind currents of the region and by creating different temperature conditions in This region has played a significant role in creating the atmospheric pressure patterns of this region and development of various local winds and the flow of sand to the inside of daranjir desert. Another tectonic effect in the region is the activity of faults and their role in the transfer of groundwater near to the Earth's surface and the concentration of sand in the Sadegh abad area. Therefore, it can be said that the tectonic has played a direct and indirect role in concentration sand in the form of the Sadegh Abad Rig. In this way, the activity of faults, the creation of a difference in the topography and obstacle in the path of the sand direction in the adjacent Bafgh fault has directly played a role in the concentration and deposition of sand grains. Also, tectonics which has an effect on the development of groundwater transfer to the adjacent to the earth's surface, has increased of soil moisture in the adjacent Bafq fault, also local winds move the sand to the Daranjir center so it has affected the development of Sand dune in this part of daranjir Desert.

    Keywords: Erg establishment, Sadegh abad bafq erg, Sand dune, Unidirectional index
  • Komeil Abdi, Saeid Kamyabi *, Mohammad Reza Zand Moghaddam Pages 431-445

    Introduction Climate change and urbanization have put societies at the forefront of urban planning management challenges for a sustainable future (Bertilsson & Wiklund, 2015). Recent studies show that climate change is likely to increase the hydrological cycle and increase the probability of severe weather events such as droughts and floods (Bates et al. 2008). Also, urbanization has increased the flood in recent decades with increasing levels of impenetrable and changing the flow paths (Chen et al, 2015). A flood itself is a natural phenomenon that is usually associated with positive consequences. But when the flood occurs in the urban environment, it has devastating consequences for residents, in terms of property destruction as well as a threat to human health (Becker, 2014). The sensitivity of the elements depends on the readiness of the flood and the ability to deal with the event. The vulnerability of urban elements depends on the characteristics of building structures, services, equipment and fittings, the mobility of equipment and materials available (Cho & Chang, 2017). Vulnerability and Flood Resilience Assessment Methods, based on GIS Modeling and Multi-criteria Decision Making (MCDM), have increasingly been used (Lee et al, 2013; Radmehr & Araghinejad, 2015; Sunarharum et al, 2015; Su et al, 2018; Birgani et al, 2018 ). Due to precipitation changes and increase of impenetrable levels in northern Iran, the probability of occurrence of flood in these areas has increased. Therefore, this research has been conducted with the aim of assessing the integrated vulnerability, resilience and risk taking of Sari city against potential occurrence of flood. Materials and methods This data includes the statistical blocks of the city of Sari along with the census data of 2017 from the Iranian Statistics Center, which includes demographic information, economic data and properties of residential units at the level of urban blocks. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the American Geological Survey. Indicators required after the study of existing research literature and existing data were determined. After determining the criteria and sub criteria, using the AHP questionnaire and according to expert opinion, the criteria and sub criteria are compared and ranked in a pair. Conclusion When natural hazards occur in a vacant area, it is only a risk, and the same danger if it occurs in the residential area and affects the human life of that area and causes the social and economic activities of the inhabitants to be troubled. Thus, the effects of natural disasters are determined by the degree of vulnerability of the community to a danger, or the opposite, its ability to deal with the disaster. This is not a natural vulnerability, but a result of changing natural, social, economic, cultural, political or even psychological factors that shape the lives of humans and create the environments in which humans live. In fact, natural disasters and disasters are the judgments of nature about human performance. Today, many habitable places are exposed to natural hazards. The spectacular point is that natural hazards can not be eliminated, but should be reduced to the management of this phenomenon or improve the survival of societies against such hazards. A study of the history of studies shows that the resilience of residents to natural disasters is promoted by social, economic, environmental and managerial factors. Vulnerability to natural disasters reflects the resilience to the positive aspects and strengths of societies. The research attempted to assess the vulnerability, resilience and spatial resolution of the Sari city to the flood with a comprehensive approach. The city blocks of Sari city were selected as the basis for measurements, so that the calculations needed to reach the target were made. The final output was the production of vulnerability maps, resilience and spatial risk aversion at the level of the city blocks of Sari. More than 600 hectares of the Saray area are highly vulnerable. Meanwhile, more than 800 hectares of Sari city area have high and very high resilience. According to these results, high and high risk taking in Sari is about 600 hectares. After weighing, the values of different indices in different dimensions were used by linear fuzzy method between 1 and 0. In this research, a linear method was used to fuzzy the indices. Then, the standard maps were combined with the help of gamma fuzzy operators. Keywords: Vulnerability, Resilience, Risk, Flood, Sari

    Keywords: Vulnerability, resilience, Floodwater, Sari, Risk taking
  • Elham Ghasemifar, Manochehr Farajzadeh *, Yousef Ghavidel Rahimi, Abbas Ali Ali Akbar Bidokhti Pages 447-468

    Introduction Cloud has an important role in the study of radiation balance and greenhouse gases due to water vapor existing in the greenhouse gases of atmosphere. Clouds can reflect sun radiate in the top of atmosphere based on their thickness and density. Iran country has different regions in regards to cloudiness. For example the north of Iran has a cloudy sky over most days of year, while cloudy conditions is low in the central regions of Iran. One of the most important datasets in order to cloud detection is satellite data. The two main of sensors that can be used in meteorology are Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard Terra and Aqua Platforms and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) aboard National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that were used in this paper. By far, various cloud detection algorithms are applied to different satellite observations over various land surfaces globally. AVHRR level1 data is used to introduce a regional cloud detection scheme for two regions in Iran which have different geographical characteristics. Most cloud mask algorithms were developed globally using different spectral tests and have not examined and validated at regional scale. For example MODIS cloud mask (MCM) algorithm applies five group tests in visible, near infrared, and thermal spectral regions. The goal of the study is to validate the MCM based on AVHRR data and radiative transfer model simulation of clear sky brightness temperature (BT). Data and methods Gilan is located in southern coastal of Caspian Sea with maritime climate whereas Khohgiluyeh Va Boyerahmad have a mountainous climate. Five spectral threshold tests were used for the regions and also Radiative Transfer for Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational (RTTOV) simulation of clear sky BT was applied for clear sky BT thresholding. Snow have detected by NearIR(1.6) /VIS(0.6) test ranging values below and equal than 0.2 with a BT test at 12 μm ranging -8.16 to 11.84 degrees Celsuis. Third test was reflectance test. Fourth test was a NearIR (0.9)/VIS (0.6) which have ranging 0.6 to 1.3 over cloudy area, finally a clear sky BT test was applied to the areas. Results and discussion These all tests were applied to five dates with highest positive anomalies (Dec 2003, Oct 2006, Jan 2008 and Nov2011) and highest negative anomaly (Dec 2010) during 2001-2015. The results showed that although an extended area have values below and equal than 0.2, BT test for cloudy region have values below than -8.16 degrees Celsuis. With examining the fourth test, the test indicated that the values between 0.6 and 1.3 over Gilan and 0.7 and 1.3 over Khohgiluyeh Va Boyerahmad can detect clouds. The fifth test revealed interesting results due to it showed different properties over low and high skin temperature area so that an area with values of skin temperature higher than 5 degrees Celsuis experienced clear sky BT colder than cloudy sky temperature and vice versa. This test showed that the values of T12μm below than -2.5 degrees Celsuis can detect clouds in both cases (skin temperature below than 5 degrees Celsuis and greater than 5 degrees Celsuis) over Khohgiluyeh Va Boyerahmad whereas values of 5 and -13.68 degrees Celsuis can be used for the thresholding over the area with skin temperature greater and below than 5 degrees Celsuis over Gilan province, respectively. The results showed that these tests can well detect clouds over more than 90 percent of points. With applying these tests over 90 and 91 points of Gilan and Khohgiluyeh Va Boyerahmad, the results showed good agreement between new cloud mask and MCM and weather stations total cloud cover data. Conclusions The objective of the study was to valdate MCM using AVHRR data and weather stations data. Results regards to applying the radiative transfer model revealed a very interesting effect on cloud detection. It is a first attempt to introduce a regional cloud mask over Iran, it is suggested the use of SEVIRI data with higher temporal resolution over two regions and also other radiative transfer simulation results can compare to the radiative transfer model applied in this research. Also it is recommended to use more points and dates for such researches for acquiring accurate results. Key words: cloud detection, AVHRR, RTTOV, Gilan, Khohgiluyeh Va Boyerahmad

    Keywords: cloud detection, AVHRR, RTTOV, Gilan, Khohgiluyeh Va Boyerahmad
  • Yagob Dinpashoh *, Masoumeh Foroughi Pages 469-482

    Introduction Reference potential evapotranspiration (ET0) is one of the main elements of hydrologic cycle which can be estimated from weather data. This element can be used in calculating crop water requirements, scheduling irrigation systems, preparing input data to hydrological water-balance models, regional water resources assessment, and planning and management of water in a region and/or basin. The use of ET0 permits a physically realistic characterization of the effect of the microclimate of a field on the evaporative transfer of water from the soil-plant system to the atmosphere. It provides a measure of the integrated effect of radiation, wind speed, temperature and humidity on evapotranspiration. The long-term mean ET0 value in a certain time scale (month, season or year) can be changed during the recent decades in a given station. By decreasing ET0, crop water demand decreases, too. Conversely, by increasing ET0 the crop water requirements increases accordingly. Therefore, it can be suggest that change in the rates of ET0 due to climate change would have great importance to agriculturalists and water decision makers. On the other hand, accurate estimation of ET0 is crucial in improving the irrigation efficiency in a region. Many climatic parameters impacted the ET0 value in a single site. On the other hand these parameters are correlated to each other. Materials & Methods The climatic data from the synoptic stations with at least 20 years of continues records in East Azarbaijan province gathered from the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). The obtained data include maximum air temperature (Tmax), minimum air temperature (Tmin), wind speed in 10 m height (U), maximum relative humidity (RHmax), minimum relative humidity (RHmin), and duration of sunshine hours (n). The well-known FAO-PM56 method was used to calculate the ET0. There are many methods for ET0 estimation. The Penman–Monteith (PM) method is recommended as the standard by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UNFAO) and has gained worldwide acceptance and received much research interests. The PM equation has been widely used in ET0 estimation. However, this method needs more meteorological data which is not available in many regions. This led scientists to use other methods which do not need more parameters. Among the empirical methods which estimate ET0 using less climatic parameters are Hargreaves, Tornth-Wait, Belaney-Criddle and Priestley–Taylor. Unfortunately, output of these models are not accurate in all the sites. Therefore for using these simple empirical models the calibration process should be done as well. Therefore, the following issues need urgent study: (1) selection of as few dominant meteorological variables as possible meteorological parameters affecting ET0, and (2) universal application of an established model in more regions. The alternative method namely multiple linear regression (MLR) can be used to estimate the ET0. In order to evaluate the performance of the MLR method some measures calculated by comparing the results of MLR with FAO56-PM method. These measures are the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and the coefficient of determination (R2). Then, the correlation coefficients (ryxi) calculated between the ET0 time series (y) and each of the meteorological parameters (xi). Then, the partial correlation coefficients (rij) calculated between the explanatory variables (xi and xj) as well. Both of the direct and indirect effects of each climatic parameter on ET0 evaluated by path analysis. These effects are denoted by P and Rdc, respectively. By solving the Eq. 6 the elements of P (direct effect of xi on y or ET0 ) are obtained. By multiplying the obtained P vector (direct effects) on r_(x_i x_j ) the indirect effect of xi through the xj on ET0) were calculated. This process repeated for all the selected sites. Path analysis was first proposed in 1921 as a mathematical and statistical method by the geneticist Sewell Wright. Nowadays, the method is broadly used in agriculture and energy demands, revealing direct or indirect relationships between some morphological characters. However, little information is available on the use of this technique to evaluate the affecting factors of ET0. Given the fact that all the meteorological variables are strongly correlated and ultimately lead to multi-collinearity, traditional trend and correlation analyses cannot quantify the interactions among the meteorological factors when filtering the suitable parameters. Path analysis is a type of multivariate statistical analysis for studying relationships among variables, and it can reveal the strength of effect of independent variables on a dependent variable. Path analysis can determine direct and indirect effects of independent variables on the dependent variable, multi-collinear independent variables resulting from their own strong correlations, and optimal regression equations without unnecessary independent variables. The path coefficient is a type of standard partial regression coefficient (without units) that expresses causalities among related variables, and is also a directional correlation coefficient between independent and dependent variables. This analysis conducted for each of the selected stations in East Azarbaijan province, Iran. To do this firstly correlation coefficients between each of the climatic parameters and ET0 time series calculated. Similarly, correlation coefficients matrix between the climatic parameters which affect ET0 obtained for each of the stations. Results and discussion Results showed that the values of MAPE obtained for the stations were between 0.433 and 0.874. However, the R2 values were between 0.972 and 0.9953. Similarly, the RMSE were between 0.042 (mm/day) and 0.982 (mm/day), and the obtained MAE values were between 0.033 and 0.057, respectively. Also, it was found that the wind speed at the stations namely Tabriz, Jolfa, Sarab, Sahand, Maragheh and Mianeh had significant correlation (at the 0.01% level) with ET0. The strongest correlation detected in the station Ahar, which was between ET0 and the wind speed (at the 0.01% level). The results of path analysis showed that the maximum value of P (direct effect of meteorological parameters on ET0 belonged to the wind speed. The P values of wind speed in the stations Tabriz, Julfa, Sahand, Sarab, Maragheh, and Mianeh were equal to 0.637, 0.787, 0.877, 0.578, 0.850, and 0.780, respectively. In the station Ahar, the highest value of the P observed, which belonged to the Tmax (equal to 0.398).

    Conclusion

    Accurate estimation of ET0 is very important from the view of optimal water management in any region. Wind speed was found to be the dominant direct climatic parameter due to having the largest value of the P. In general, it can be concluded that the causal analysis method can be considered as an effective way to investigate the direct and indirect effects of meteorological parameters on ET0. Overall, it is more reasonable and scientific to apply path analysis method to evaluating dominant meteorological parameters which affect the ET0 in direct and indirect manners. The further research can be oriented in analysis on why dominant factors vary with meteorological stations. Development of other soft computing techniques which calculate ET0 using the climatic methods (such as firefly algorithm, artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and genetic expression programming) and comparing their accuracy with that of the MLR recommended for further studies.

    Keywords: meteorological parameters, Path analysis, Reference Evapotranspiration, Stepwise regression, Eest Azerbaijan Province
  • Mohhamad Amin Parandin, Hasan Zolfaghari *, Amanollah Fathnia Pages 483-496

    Introduction Water is considered as an important and determinative factor for the continuity of human, animal and plants living on the earth and biosphere. This vital material resolves the primary requirements of human such as drinking, agriculture, and industry. Nowadays, providing water is regarded as a basic challenge in developing countries, like Iran. Regarding the climate tensions and excess consumption in most major cities the problem of water scarcity can be minimized by harvesting rainwater. Since Rainwater Harvesting of roofs in some regions in Iran is considerably remarkable, it can provide some non-drinking requirements of citizens. Basic concept of rainwater harvesting is simple, as it is collected from the roofs and appropriate surfaces, and transmitted downwards by pipes. This water is saved in an appropriate place which can be used in proper time. If the saved water is considered for non-drinking consumption, no filtering will be needed; desalination is enough. It should be noted that rainwater needs to be filtered for drinking. Therefore, for arid and semi-arid regions such as Kermanshah, Rainwater Harvesting from the building roofs to supply water requirement of urban green places can solve a major problem of dehydration. Material and Method The necessary climatic data of this study are precipitation statistic of synoptic station in Kermanshah during a 65-year period, from 1951 to 2016. They were used as annually and monthly average. Due to the climate of Kermanshah, precipitation period lasts from October to June. The urban data used includes the area of building roofs, the area of urban green places and trees, and amount of required water volume for irrigation. The area of Kermanshah city of building roofs was extracted from satellite images in Google earth. Three components were used to calculate the volume of harvesting rainwater, including precipitation, the area of building roofs and run-off coefficient. Run-off coefficient of building roofs is defaulted as 0.7. Moreover, the required water to irrigate the green places of Kermanshah city is 12 liters per m2 during 24 hours. Although there is rainfall during cold season of the year (January, February and March) and decrease of plant growth, irrigation is stopped. The used water to irrigate is in the mean of 4 liters per m2 in fall and spring which is mainly due to moderate weather and raining. In the present study, WLC and AHP methods were applied to determine the appropriate location of rainwater saving. The evaluated variables to determine the place include green places, unused places, Agricultural lands in the city, suburb agriculture lands, slope and the proximity to the buildings which were gathered by questionnaire through experts of municipality officials, parks organization and urban green places of Kermanshah city. Moreover, it should be noted that some land uses are considered as the unsuitable Places to save rainwater such as asphalt surface, roof surface, and all kinds of service land uses across the city. Findings and Discussion The area of Kermanshah city is 108365238 m2. The maximum precipitation is raining to March and April, 70.6 mm, while the minimum is raining to July and August. The average annually precipitation is 441 mm. Besides, the maximum temperature of Kermanshah city is 380C in August, while the minimum is -3.60C in January. The biggest zone is recorded for zone 3 in Kermanshah, 21/28 Km2, and the most ratio area of building roofs is recorded for district 4, 23.8 % (the highest building density). Moreover, most ratios the greenest places for zone 5, 6.4%. The most water requirement is zone 5, due to the green places and higher number of trees (8110 ones), 14.7%. The highest ratio of harvesting rainwater is calculated for zone 4 (due to more building density), while the least ratio is calculated for zone 8 (due to less building density). The ratio of urban green places area is 4.3% and the ratio of water requirement is 9.8%. The most percent reserve of rainwater requirement is related to zone 4 located in the southeast of the city, 76.5%; zone 3, in the east of the city, is regarded in the second class. The least percent reserve of rainwater requirement is recognized for zone 8, located in the southwest of Kermanshah city. As a matter of fact, it is important to recognize these regions, for green places may be of the far regions to gather rainwater which require the transition and saving according to the effective variables. The total volume of water requirement is about 10620000 m3 and the volume of harvesting rainwater is 6200000 m3 which can provide 58.4% of water requirement. The highest effectiveness of locating is related to the variable of the locations with green places. Unused places and agriculture lands in city are next priority for rainwater saving, due to easier conversion land use. In fact, the slope is lower, the more appropriate lands for rainwater saving. Besides, the proximity to the place for gathering rainwater is economically efficient. Totally, 42000 m2 of area Kermanshah city is more suitable to saving rainwater which is mostly located in district 5 in the northeast of the city. Building roofs, passages, medical centers, service centers, refinery and airports are not appropriate enough to save rainwater, approximately 42000000 m2. Conclusion Rainwater is changed to run-off and flood-water in most of the cities in Iran which is moved out of the city by water channels. Rainwater Harvesting is of considerable importance due to the conservation and management of water sources. The present study is carried out to determine the amount of harvesting rainwater from the building roofs of Kermanshah city to supply water requirement of urban green places. The suitable places for rainwater harvesting were determined by WLC models. The findings show that 6200000 m3 (58.4%) out of total 10620000 m3 of annually water requirement of Kermanshah green places, is provided by rainwater harvesting of the building roofs. According to different environmental variables, about 42000 m2 of urban area and suburb of Kermanshah city are recognized as more appropriate regions to saving rainwater. Zone 5 of Kermanshah city has better conditions than other zones.

    Keywords: rainwater harvesting, Building Roofs, Urban Green Places, Kermanshah City
  • Mehrdad Nasr Esfahani, Hojat Yazdanpanah * Pages 497-512

    Introduction Nowadays one of the greatest difficulties in agricultural section is effect of Weather factors on agricultural crops. Purpose of this research is Prognosis of frosting occurrence almond orchards in Zayandeh Rud Basin. Freezing can damage on agriculture crops on the condition that it was prolonging and intense. Not only frost phenomenon and consequent damages of it in my country but also exist in world countries mostly. And mostly on time and accurate forecasting of occurrence time, by using confront methods with this Atmospheric phenomenon, can reduce damages of it. Though about frostbite many studies have been done but the majority of this research just this phenomenon from the perspective of the weather and more specifically the Productive synoptic patterns have checked. While at the agricultural scale Great view Often Useless results and it is necessary With the help of regional models, These predictions scale down On scales spatial and temporal (Downscaling). The purpose of this research is combining two phonological and meteorological models (WRF) In order to predict the phenomenon of spring frost in almond gardens of the region. Materials and Methods Case of study in this research is in almond orchards in Najafabad region and Zayandeh Rud Basin. Zayandeh Rud Basin and research area geographical coordinates has occurred at 50 degrees and 20 minute until 52 degrees and 24 minute eastern longitude and 31 degrees and 12 minute until 33 degrees and 42 minute northern latitude. Since the concept of cold damage in agriculture Regardless of product development stages (phenology) and only the temperature test has no practical value therefore, it was necessary first to estimate the model of Almond flowering stage develops in studied gardens to its results Combine with weather forecasting model (WRF). In this research, according to the phenology long-term statistics of almond trees in the Najafabad region, Extracted flowering dates were calculated based on Julian Day dates. Then the GDD matrix table (Table 1) is plotted. Integration of the WRF model with the model of phenology This table contains various temperature parameters, Next, the relationship between flowering history it is evaluated with the parameters mentioned. And the strongest relationship is chosen. Here the flowering is dependent variable and the other above mentioned is independent variable. The most relevant regression equation is determined with high correlation coefficient. Now according to the WRF model which it’s testing in the study area was performed by Nasr Esfahani et al and predicted model temperature was statistically significant, a quick warning can be made of the occurrence of frostbite in the coming days for the flowering date which is explained in the flowchart above. Results and Discussion According to the phenological data of Najafabad station, the flowering date for each year and based on Julian Day, in the statistical population of 10 years (2006-2017) was analyzed. The average flowering period is eighty days (80) days Juliusi. It should be noted that in 2010 the earliest date of flowering. The years 2007, 2011 and 2014 have the highest flowering time compared to the year. That flowering in 2007 twelve days, 2011 ten days, 2012 is fifteen days, 2014 is eight days and 2017 is six days later than the average. Among the existing parameters, between the flowering date and the number of days above the mean of the highest correlation of 0.945. This is a positive relationship and gives us that the number of days above the average accelerates the flowering of almonds. And the value of P-value Where X1 is the number of days above the average and X2 is the number of days below the average. Table 4 (Model Summary) is used to select the best model. Table 4 defines the coefficient for both models. It is noted that the modified coefficient of the second model is determined which has two independent variables, is 0.998 which is higher than the first-order correction coefficient of 0.88. It can be concluded that the second model is better than the first one. Table4: Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate Model 1 .945a .893 0.880 4.65497 Model 2 .999 b .998 .998 0.64924 Conclusion As we have seen, the linear multivariate regression equation was significant for predicting flowering history at 1% level. Now with the temperature prediction by the WRF model And calculating the number of days above the average and below the average the flowering date can be obtained and warns of frostbite in the presence of flowering Similar to this study, Prabha and Hoogenboom (2008) showed that Use the WRF Intermediate Scale for effective protection management to protect products and reduce frost damage, is a strategy. The results of this study are the feasibility and accuracy of the WRF model for radiation and radiant frost warning Indicates. Considering the daily temperature test output of the WRF model in the studied area which is very good in smooth areas it can be combined with two phenology models and the prediction of temperature by the WRF model, a quick warning of 48 hours of frostbite occurred in the gardens of the area with sufficient accuracy. Keywords: Phenology Models, WRF model, Flowering date, Temperature Forecast

    Keywords: Phenology Models, WRF model, Flowering date, Temperature Forecast
  • ALI Mehrabi * Pages 513-528

    Abstract Introduction Studying the behavior of exposed salt structures and its relationship to the environmental factors can be effective in identification of these structures and their environmental effects. Salt layers beneath the sediments, due to their lower viscosity than the surrounding rocks, can flow upward and form different salt structures such as salt pillows, walls and salt domes. (Krzywiec and Weinberger, 2006). Kinematics studying of outcropped salt structures has great potential to provide valuable information for engineering and scientific purposes, such as the storage of natural gas (Szczerbowski, 2004). The behavior of salt masses is usually difficult to investigate due to their instability and extreme variability on the surface. (Talbot and Pohjola, 2009). A study of the world's salt domes shows that the evolution of many salt structures is influenced by tectonic factors and regimes (e.g., Canerot et al., 2005). However, the life span of salt masses on the earth's surface is short, but because salts are exposed, they are affected by the processes of the Earth's surface and undergo various motional and shape changes, and by examining these changes, over this short period we can find key and important evidence of evolutionary trends. As a result, it is important for the overall exploration of crustal salt to study the few available subaerial salt bodies. Most of our information on salt kinematics and mobility is related to studies on the Zagros and Alborz salt domes in southern and northern Iran. (e.g., Kent, 1979). The Shahghib-e-Larestan salt dome, is one of the largest exposed saline structures that have been used in the study of salt motility and its possible relationship with climate change in this research. In this regard, the accrued deformation on this salt dome was identified and measured by using Time series interferometry technique of ASAR images Related to the years of 2003 to 2008. Material and Methods InSAR is a remote sensing technique that using radar imagery to measure the satellite line of sight (LOS) displacements rate in millimeter to centimeter accuracy (e.g., Zebker et al., 1994;Massonnet and Feigl, 1998;Bürgmann et al., 2000). Multiple SAR images are used to generate set of interferograms and to form a time series after a joint inversion (e.g., Berardino et al., 2002). InSAR time series analysis helps to reduce the impact of several noise sources (decorrelation, orbital and DEM errors, atmospheric delays, phase unwrapping errors) on dis-placement rates estimation during the time period spanned by the full dataset (e.g., Grandin et al., 2012) with an accuracy for surface displacement velocity at the mm/yr scale. The short baseline method is used to minimize the spatio-temporal baseline by a combination of interferograms. We was used 22 ESA ASAR C-band radar images acquired by the Envisat satellite between June 2003 and October 2008 from Track 291 (along descending orbits). A small-baseline approach was used to process interferograms, and this method was used to calculated average displacement rates through time with the New Small Baseline Algorithm Subset chain. 11 individual interferograms were generated using a modified version of the SARScape and the STRM 30-global DEM. Interferograms were corrected from DEM errors. Result and Discussion In order to investigate the relationship between salt kinematic and different weather conditions, the individual maps of 10 different periods between 2003 and 2008 were correlated with the temperature and precipitation data corresponding to the mentioned periods. The radar interferometry method was performed on the pair of images from 2003 and 2008 from the study area to produce the interferogram images. (Fig. 5). As shown in Fig. 5, several fringes are formed in the interferogram image. Since the used satellite (Envisat) works in the C band, and each obtained fringe is λ/2 equal to 2.8 centimeters, the displacement rate to the satellite's view is obtained by counting the number of fringes. The mechanism of displacement also varies depending on the color cycle (fringes pattern), so that if the color cycle is yellow-blue-red, displacement moving away from the radar and if the color cycle is yellow-red-blue, the displacement has occurred into the radar. As shown in Fig. 6, the surface displacement rate in the Shah-gheyb salt dome is 2.3 to 2.8 cm per year, between 2003 and 2008 into the satellite view. Two regions of the salt dome have been uplifted and one region in the northwestern part of the dome has been subsided. Based on the cross-sectional displacement maps shown in Figures 8, 9 and 10, there is an apparent relationship between the hot and cold months of the year and the surface displacement rates of the salts. In Figure C8, which corresponds to two warm months of the year, the rate of uplift is much higher than that of subsidence. The results obtained from the time series analysis and displacement rates indicate that this salt dome is active. It determines the salt motion in the satellite's view of 2.8 cm per year Based on correlation coefficients, there is a direct accordance between displacement and average temperature. As the temperature increases, the salt uplift rises and the subsidence decreases. But there was no relationship between rainfall and surface changes of salt. Conclusion In this study, the displacement rate of Shah-gheyb salt dome was calculated using radar interferometry method in the folded Zagros area. The average uplift rate of salt mass was 2.8 centimeters per year and the average rate of subsidence was 2.2 centimeters per year. This rate of change has been varied in different times according to the temperature of the region. By correlation of different weather conditions with sectional displacement maps, it is clear that there are a relative correlation between the salt kinematic and climatic conditions. Therefore, in this salt dome, salt kinematics can be controlled by climate conditions (Abdolmaleki et al. 2014). In addition, the time series analysis has been shown that the difference between the uplift and subsidence has steadily increased in 2003 to 2008. Therefore, secondary salt changes after the outbreak of salt domes on earth were often influenced by climatic conditions and physicochemical properties of salt as well as tectonic conditions. Keywords: Salt Movement, Weather Condition, Radar Interferometry, Salt Dome, Larestan

    Keywords: Salt Movement, Weather Condition, Radar interferometry, Salt dome, Larestan
  • Bahroz Sobhani *, Minoo Ahmadyan, Saied Jahanbakhsh Pages 529-544

    Introduction Climate plays a key role in the successful production of horticultural products in the global trade. Horticultural activities are highly dependent on local weather conditions. The study of the phenomenological behavior of products as part of the impact of environmental conditions is important, because in order to achieve optimal production as well as more appropriate management, it is essential to know the phonological stages and changes to the product. Methodology In this study, the ECMWF database has been used for observation data of Semirom and Urmia stations during 20-year period (1996-2001).To understand and evaluate the accuracy of ECMWF data with the observation data of the Iranian Meteorological Organization during the common time interval with the nearest point of ERA-Interim to the stations studied, the Pearson Correlation Coefficient (R), Coefficient of Determination (R2), mean squared error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). The most important factor in determining the need for water is the accurate ETo estimation in each region, so the potential evapotranspiration (ETᴼ) values were calculated using the Penman-Monteith FAO method. To investigate the effect of climate change on water requirement and duration of growth, the daily micro scale dynamic data of the CORDEX project with a precision of 44% * 44% for the output of the ICHEC-EC-EARTH model under the two lines of 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP) was used for the period (2017-2037). In order to reduce the errors in the model estimates, the post-processing action of the estimated events was fulfilled. The Water requirement and growth season length apples were also noted. Then, considering that the highest amount of apple cultivars in the studied areas is autumn, the type of late fall apple is selected for evaluation. According to correlate each step of growing apples with thermal operating temperature, length of growing season and vegetative stages of apple tree were calculated using GDD. Results The statistical results between ERA-Interim data and observational data at the stations were examined and the accuracy of the database data was confirmed for both stations In the next section, in order to select the best model for the studied areas, the data of the base year of the growth season of the CORDEX project models was compared with the observational data. The ICHEC-EC-EARTH model The ICHEC-EC-EARTH has a lower error rate than the other two. Do post processing of historical events has been able to greatly increase the model's performance data. The results of two man-Kendall and Sen's slope at the Semirom station on the ETo observations were reduced during the growing season, but in the Urumia station, the slope is positive and incremental. The evapotranspiration potential observed in the growing season, under the RCP4 / 5 and RCP8 / 5 trajectory for stations, shows an incremental trend. At the Uromiyah station, the results of the ETo on the growth stages of the apple tree indicate an increasing trend for observational data in all stages. . For estimated data, the effective rainfall season in Urumieh station is more than Semirom, therefore, during the growth season of the apple tree, the Semirom station will need more water in the observation period and years of forecasting than the station in Orumiyeh. At both stations, in the observation period and the estimated data, the rainfall level is effective in the germination stage was more than other stages. In the course of 8/8 for both effective precipitation stations will increase compared to the observation period. Considering the evapotranspiration and precipitation during the growing season of apples, the results of simulations showed that under climate change conditions compared to the base period, the need for irrigation of apple trees at Urmia and Semirom stations was increased under both scenarios. The results from the comparison of the growth period of the base period and the estimated data at the stations under both scenarios indicate a decrease in the growth period in the future, which their trend was not statistically verified. Earlier heat supply due to increased temperature has led to some shortening steps. Decreasing the growth period in the scenario is 5.8 more than the scenario of 4.5. Conclusions Based on the evaluation methods, the ECMWF data estimation error with observational data was negligible, and the database data for the studied stations can be verified. The results showed that evapotranspiration in both stations is increasing during the growing season. The ETo increase in the growth season of the apple tree stations was predicted from the base period for the trajectory of 4.5 and 8.5 for the Semirom 4.14.7 and 7.99.7, respectively, and for Orumiye Station, 26.5 and 11.8, respectively, and however, this increasing process will raise the apple's need for water. The highest amount of evaporation and water requirement in the observed and estimated data has been occurred in the period of growth. At this stage, the lowest effective rainfall and the highest average temperature have occurred but generally the percentage of upcoming changes of germination stage was more than other stages. Earlier heat supply will reduce the growth period of the apple tree, in fact, the plant will complete its growth and reproduction cycle earlier, resulting in reduced yield, reduced quality and color, increased temperature and increased water requirement. Earlier heat supply due to increased temperature has led to some shortening steps.

    Keywords: : Evapotranspiration, Water requirement, the apple tree, Growth length, Penman Monteith FAO method