فصلنامه اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
پیاپی 107 (پاییز 1398)

In analysing consumer rational behaviour, the proof of a neoclassical utility function for consumption data is inevitable. Researches of demand functions will be correct when the demand function and the basis of utility are a good approximation of the utility function and the actual demand. In this study, the revealed preferences method was used to test the stability and structural failure in Fars province's consumer preferences for the oil from 1990 to 2016. Based on the results, only three violations were found in the total data in the years 2002 & 1993, 2003 & 1997, 2004 & 1997. The Kruskal-Wallis test showed that these inconsistencies weren't due to change in preferences and may be unstable due to errors in measurements or nonlinear momenta, and the assumption of rational behaviour was confirmed. Thus, the consumption data of the oil basket Fars province's households can be interpreted using a neoclassical utility function.

In recent years, in order to deal with the production risk, new tools named Weather Exchange has been introduced and exchange in the many of world’s Stocks. Due to existing of the risk of changing weather conditions in the agricultural sector, this study aim to introduce the weather exchange. The factors affecting farmers, participation in the exchange above also is studied. For this purpose, the Order Logit models used and the data required is collected by interview and questionnaires with 160 farmers in Khorram Abad Area of Tonekabon. The results showed that 79 percent of farmers would like to participate in the proposed weather exchange and only 21% have not shown willingness to participate in this type of exchange. This high percentage of willingness to participate in this market indicated high tendency of farmers of this new tool. age, ownership and risk aversion coefficient of farmers have had a negative impact on the level of participation of farmers. Education, contingency reserve and diversification are also effective and multiplier variables on the participation of farmers.

This study aimed at evaluating the regional and countrywide impacts of wheat support price regimes, using spatial price equilibrium model. The study results showed that increasing support price from 10 to 50 percent in five scenarios would lead to the increase in supply quantity by 1.68-8.1 percent and producer welfare by 109-555 percent as well as an increase in government outlay by 18-88 percent; in addition, these policies would decrease social welfare in the range of 51 to 228 percent, indicating the inefficiency of this policy approach. Also, the results revealed that provincial markets had different reactions to these policies in their mean prices, quantities and welfare changes. Therefore, adopting the same guaranteed price policies for wheat would not have suitable supportive effects across regions and the unique support price among provinces would be inefficient, rather these policies should be imposed relative to regional production elasticity’s.

Increasing competition, product diversity, and raising public awareness have driven consumer demand into fundamental changes. Thus, maintaining and expanding the current market require the discovery of demands and the satisfaction of customers through the creation of necessary changes in the production system, quality, marketing and sales of products. Therefore, this study aimed at ranking seven dairy companies through the elements of marketing mix, based on customer satisfaction in Tabriz County of Iran. For this purpose, a combined method of DEMATEL-ANP multi-criteria decision-making was used to prioritize the concerned companies. The results showed that "product" was the most important criterion in providing customers with relative satisfaction; and price, place and promotion criteria were in the next priorities. It was also concluded that Pegah Dairy Company was ranked the first in providing dairy consumer satisfaction. Dairy companies of Kaleh and Mihan were ranked the second and third respectively, and Ramak, Kohsaran, Sutich and Pak companies were ranked next in terms of satisfying the customers' satisfaction with dairy products.

Over recent years, unconventional extraction of irrigation water for producing agricultural products has decreased the level of groundwater in Dehgolan Plain of Kurdistan province in Iran, putting this vital resource at serious risk. This study aimed at investigating the effects of restrictive water supply policy on cropping patterns, farmers' incomes and the amount of water extraction from groundwater aquifer of Dehgolan Plain. For this purpose, a positive mathematical programming (PMP) model along with a maximum entropy (ME) model was developed and estimated. The required data was obtained in a two-stage cluster sampling method through completing 96 questionnaires from farmers in the villages of the region for the 2015-2016 farming year. The results showed that the irrigation water reduction policies had a great impact on the cultivation pattern and led farmers to products with more economic efficiency in water use. Furthermore, as a result of this policy, the gross margins in the first to third scenarios will decrease by 4.94, 9.96 and 14.94 percent, respectively, and the economic return on irrigation water will increase by 5.65, 12.64 and 21.63 percent, respectively. In conclusion, according to the results of this study, the strategy of restricting water supply along with the changes in cultivation pattern might effectively reduce water extraction and contribute to maintain and sustain the groundwater resources of the Dehgolan Plain.

In this study, the optimum cropping pattern in Rey County of Iran was determined using Linear Programming model (conventional), considering various degrees of risk using risk models of MOTAD, Target MOTAD and Advanced MOTAD. The required data were collected through field study and filling out 149 questionnaires from beneficiaries of the county as well as the concerned Agricultural-Jehad Management and subordinate organizations and offices in five farming years of 2010-15. The results from linear programming model showed that compared to the present status, applying the optimized cropping pattern made 6.69 percent increase in programmed output. Also, the results from estimation of risky models suggested that there was a positive relationship between risk and the farm’s programmed output. Again, risky models in highest possible level of risk indicated results similar to those of linear programming, and the pattern presented by linear model was placed at maximum possible level of risk.

Today, climatic change is known as a key and effective variable on growth in crop yield. This aimed at determining the effect of environmental factors, time trend and places variables on improved genetic of irrigated bread wheat lines in breeding program in different research stations of Iran. The required panel data were collected from 22 locations in breeding program of irrigated bread wheat during 1995-2014. The study was conducted in a stochastic production function of Just and Pope. According to the results, the impact of time trend on mean yield and risk variance of the irrigated wheat lines was estimated positive and significant, improving the annual mean yield by 29 kg/ha. The impact of released year on mean and variance of the irrigated wheat lines was estimated positive and statistically significant as well. The impacts of mean temperature (0C) and amounts of raining (mm) in different seasons on mean and variance of the irrigated wheat lines were estimated significant.

Given the consequences of climate change impacts on production and economic situation of Agriculture Sector of Iran, as emphasized by both the National Document for Development of Medicinal Plants and the Sixth Five Year Development National Plan of Iran, the area under cultivation of medicinal plants should increase from 16506 hectares (19 percent of which is already under cultivation of damask rose) to 50000 hectares by the end of the development plan. However, since the damask rose production yield in many provinces is relatively low and the level of active ingredients is not at a high enough level, the production of this flower may not be economically advisable. This study was conducted in descriptive and analytical methods using SWOT matrix for analyzing the primary and secondary data obtained from documents as well as field visits through deep interviews. The study results indicated that the damask rose development policy should focus on programs and activities aiming at increasing the production yield and improving the quality of flowers as well as the diversification of processed products, instead of emphasizing on increase in the area under cultivation; in addition, the damask rose processing mills should not limit their activities to the rose water, rather the rose oil, rose concrete and absolute should be induced to produce for using whole plant potentials.

Abstract Planning for production, preventing harmful discharge of the aquifers and equilibrium of groundwater resources requires a balancing the water resources and optimizing the crop activities. Excessive extraction from the groundwater table of Jiroft Plain in Iran has led to a decline in the level of the aquifer; and if the current trend continues, the economies of the region based on agriculture will face a serious threat. This study aimed at determining the optimal extraction of groundwater resources in this plain, taking into account the combination of economic and environmental goals, using game theory. Consequently, two conflicting objectives of maximizing farmers' profit and reducing the environmental hazards corresponding to 14 extraction scenarios of groundwater resources were calculated in a positive mathematical programming (PMP) model using the GAMS software. Then, using the game theory (asymmetric Nash solution), the optimum extraction of groundwater resources of the plain and the proportional cropping pattern were determined. Based on the results, the greater the importance of environmental objectives, the lower the amount of water extraction; and the average of optimal water extraction from groundwater resources in the crop year 2015-2016 would be equal to773 million cubic meters, while considering the same weight for economic and environmental purposes. Also, within the cropping pattern proportional to the optimal water extraction, there would be reductions in the amount of water extraction by 9.8, the existing crop area by 14.9 and the net income of farmers by 5.9 percent per year. Therefore, the study suggested the compliance with considerations of environmental goals and long-term benefits of the community to modify the existing cropping pattern as well as the reduction in water extraction volume from groundwater resources in the plain.

Abstract Supply chain of agricultural products plays an important role in formation and coherence of businesses and economic activities of agricultural sector and food security. While Hamedan province stands in the first rank of potato production in Iran, it still faces various concerned challenges such as supply of resources, fluctuations in production, product losses, lack of processing infrastructure, and market regulation, slowing down the function of supply chain of potatoes. Therefore, this study aimed at identifying and analyzing the inhibitory components of development of potato supply chain in Hamedan province. Given the large number of farmers' statistical population (N=6120), a sample of 246 potato producers was selected in the studied area, using Cochran formula. The required data and information were collected through a questionnaire, the validity of which was confirmed by a panel of experts and researchers in the subject area and the reliability of which was calculated and confirmed by Cronbach's alpha (0.79). For analyzing the data, in addition to descriptive statistics, factor analysis technique was used. The results of the factor analysis revealed that there were six factors, including technical-infrastructural, social and service, policy-making, economic, educational and extensional and environmental factors explaining overall 60.38 percent of the variance of total deterrent factors. Based on the results, among others, the technical-infrastructural factor plays the most important role in the development of the potato supply chain. So, planning and investment in updating the technologies used in chain loops and also the development of mechanization at various stages of production, maintenance, conversion and processing, transportation and distribution can accelerate the supply chain development.