فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال سیزدهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 47، پاییز 1398)

The main aim of this paper is to modleized a logical theoretical framework for the relations among governance, national innovation system and absorptive capacity, and technological catching-up. With this aim and using the analytical and deductive method or content based resoning method, relations among these factores are identified and with separating non- price factores from price variables, the model is conceptualized. The results show that 1. all of variables and factors are indigenous except the shock price policy; 2.There is an increasing circle between absorptive capacity and technological cathing-up (cumulative casualty); 3. In absence of this circle Neoclassical price polices fail in improving the technological learning and cathing-up process.

This paper investigates the effect of central bank transparency on output volatility in selected states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (based on the maximum data availability) during the period 2003-2014. Applying the Arellano-Bond GMM estimation and using the Dincer and Eichengreen transparency index, we examine the effect of central bank transparency on output volatility. The results indicate that an increase in the level of central bank transparency will decrease output volatility up to a certain point, after which additional information from central banks begins to exacerbate it. Therefore, moving with caution towards monetary policy transparency is recommended since the output volatility can be reduced considerably, implying significant benefits for output stability.

The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of financial and fundamental variables on exchange rate fluctuations for Iran and 11 countries of her major trading partners during 1990-2015 with General Method of Moments (GMM) approaach. The overall results suggest that stock index differentials, the interest rates differentials, net capital inflows, net bond inflows, budget deficit and the relative efficiency of non-tradable sector have a negative and significant impact on the exchange rate. However, the inflation rate differentials and the relative efficiency of tradable sector have a positive effect. Inflation, deficit and the relative efficiency of tradable sector showed to have the greatest impact on the exchange rate returns. Therefore, it is recommended to reduce the role of the government through the transfer of activities to the nongovernmental sector and less government intervention in the economy to reduce the adverse effects of the budget deficit on macroeconomic performance, to prevent a sharp increase in liquidity in the community, and to reduce the conversion of oil revenues to rials relative to Reducing inflation, and improving efficiency index, especially that of tradable sector to preserve the value of the national currency is helpful.

While the country's development requires the growth of exports, taking into account the trend of globalization, this process entails outward looking economic approach in which preferential trade agreement is essential. On the other hand, the assessment of the effects of preferential trade agreements of Iran with trade partners is important as well. Therefore, this paper analyzes the effects of establishing a preferential trade agreement of Iran with Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This paper, using the gravity model with the panel data approach, the 2007-2016 data and generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, evaluated the effects of this agreement. The results show that the variables of GDP size, economic similarities, the difference between the exporter's, importer's income level and real exchange rate, have a positive effect on Iran’s export. It is estimated that by establishment of a preferential trade agreement between Iran and EAEU, Iran's exports will increase by 43 percent.

The factors ‘shares are constant in Solow growth accounting approach. The purposes of this paper are evaluating the effect of capital income share change on economic growth, implementing the growth accounting approach to calculate total factor productivity (TFP) considering that capital income share to be changed; and finally, estimating the effect of capital income share and it’s variation on TFP growth.   For this reason, the data of value added, capital stock, and labor compensation with constant values at 2011 as well as labor forces data of manufacturing industries in 31 Iran’s provinces during 2000-2014 have been collected. Findings show that the capital income share variation had positive effect on income per capita in provinces ‘manufacturing industries with value 11.5 thousand Rials. The growth accounting results indicate that classic factors contribution (labor and capital stock) of economic growth was 11.4 and 200 percent, respectively. Moreover, capital income share variation and Zuleta TFP contribution of manufacturing industries economic growth are 30 and -141 percent, respectively. Finally, outcomes of panel least squares (PLS) estimation show that capital income share variation has significant and positive effect on TFP growth, but income share level doesn’t significant effect during the considered period. In fact, a one percent increase in capital income share will increase the TFP growth by approximately 2.6 percent; which these are due to variation of factor abundant ratio and biased technological change in provinces ‘manufacturing industries of Iran.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of total productivity factors on employment in Iran's industrial sectors using Autoregressive distributed lag and error correction model over the period 1996-2016. In modeling, industries are categorized into three groups of low-technology, Medium Low Technology, and Medium High Technology industries. The results show a significant and negative impact of total factor productivity on employment in Total industries and Medium High Technology industries that means meaning that the increase in total productivity factors in short and long term reduces total employment of Medium High Technology industries. In addition, total factor productivity has a negative effect on employment in low Technology and Medium Low Technology, meaning that increasing productivity in both the short and long run reduces employment in low-tech and medium-low industries. According to the results, increasing the skill and Workforce expertise and new Machinery can lead to increased productivity in the employment of Iranian industries.